FAQ - Hold'em Manager (HM1) Poker Tracking Software

200k in the hole. Started on a camping trip

A few people asked for my story so I figured I'd share. Writing it out has been good therapy I think.
I first played poker on a camping trip with some friends some 10 years ago when I was 16. We didn't play for money and we used one of those cheapo wallmart sets of chips. None of us had any idea what we were doing. Pretty much every hand was limped family pots and checking down to the river.
A year later my dad's boss invited me to a homegame with his staff. This was the first time I played with someone who knew how to play. It was $10 to play, and my dad's boss won all 3 tournaments he ran that night. For me it was pretty embarassing, folding straights face up because I thought I had a high card. Thinking a straight beats a flush. That kind of thing.
That night I learned that poker was more than just luck, and that good players could make money. So I became determined to learn how to play and how to win.
I started hosting games at my school. I brought my wallmart chip set to school and classmates would play with me on my free periods and during recess. Never for money though.
During this time I started reading some articles about poker strategy online. Or at least that was my intention. After reading some articles about bankroll management and leveling I read an article on continuation betting.
I didn't need to read any more articles because it only took the cbet to make me a BEAST at the school games. Pratically every player in this game was weak-tight and would limp preflop and check/fold any board that they missed. I started to win most sessions just by cbetting 100% of boards.
A couple wins under my belt, combined with my secret weapon (the cbet!), and I knew that I was destined to be a professional.
I started to host real home-games for money (none of us were old enough to play at the casino). Every second Friday we'd play a game with a $5-$10 buy-in (None of us had jobs). It took a few weeks to realise we had to increase the blinds to force the game to end at a reasonable hour, and a few more weeks to figure out a structure that actually made sense.
I tracked all the results of these tournaments over the year, and by the end it was clear that I was the best. I had the largest ROI, the most first places, the most cashes, the most final tables. Every metric that mattered. And it was all thanks to my trusty cbet.
I wanted to go pro. I had no other career aspirations so I stopped paying attention in school and would just day dream about poker. I wanted to play all the time so I signed up to pokerstars under my mum's name because I was still only 17.
Because I had no bankroll on stars I played in the freeroll tournaments every day. The field was usually 9,000 players large, and I played in the 6pm game after school ended but before I went to bed. First place payed $6, so I knew I only needed to win 1 to launch my online poker career.
I quickly learned that 100% cbet was actually not so good against the stations and maniacs that play in freerolls. I had to change the way I played if I wanted to make it to the money.
Eventually, after a few weeks of busting before the first break, I made it to the money and I cashed in at 200th place for 50 cents - which just so happened to be the minimum buy-in for the 1c/2c cash game on stars.
I FINALLY HAD AN ONLINE BANKROLL!
I immediately sat down at a 9-ring cash game and bought in with my prize winnings. It took less than 5 minutes to completely decimate my bankroll. Much to my dismay, the players sitting at the lowest stakes cash game available in the entire country played like poker GODS! What the hell? Every one of my bluffs was called down. Every time I called down a bluff they had it. It was mental, these players were so good. Unlike anyone I had ever played against before.
At this point I knew I'd have to return to my poker studies if I wanted to have any chance at all. So I picked up my very first poker book, "Crushing the Micros", because I was gonna be playing micro stakes of course. One of the early chapters talked about the concept of set-mining and this BLEW. MY. MIND. Needless to say, I didn't feel it was necessary to read the rest of the book.
So, a few weeks later when I cashed my next freeroll tournament and returned to the 1c/2c cash game I completely changed my game. I used a new strategy where I only played pocket pairs preflop against opponents with full stacks. If I missed the flop i'd check/fold, but if I hit my set i'd check raise all in if OOP, otherwise i'd triple barrel pot bet every street if I was IP. It only took a few minutes to win my first stack with a flopped set. So I cashed out of the table and bought in to two tables.
If you've never multi-tabled before, let me tell you, it's the real deal. Twice the hands means twice the speed and that means twice the winnings. It made sense to me that I could scale this as big as possible. Back then, Pokerstars would let you play 24 tables at once - So as soon as my bankroll allowed it I started playing 24 tables at once using my se-mining strategy. The beautiful thing is, it worked!
So, playing 24 tables, only set-mining, I grew my stars bankroll to $1,000. I WAS A POKER GOD and I knew it. I crushed the school games, i crushed the home-game tournaments, and now i was crushing micro-stakes online too.
The day I turned 18 I knew it was time to crush all those fish at the casino. So for my 18th birthday I got my school poker friends (the ones who were 18 anyway) to take a trip to the casino with me.
We each brought $100 with us. 1/2 was too intimidating so the floor offered to open a 1/1 table just for us. Because it was a new table and 1/1 rarely got up, it was just us at the table for most of the night. Luckily for me though, I knew I could crush these guys with my 100% cbet strategy, and throw in a bit of set-mining and my friends stood no chance. I ended up busting every last one of my friends that night yet I only finished $300 up, which didn't make much sense. If I busted them all then shouldn't I be $800 up?
In any case, it didn't matter. I'd just proven to myself I could win at the high stakes casino games. Now I knew beyond a doubt that I could beat any game I played in. Soon I would go pro.
The next year I started uni but because I had no career aspirations besides poker, I'd just stay home and play poker online each day. Sometimes i'd go to class but I'd just play poker on my laptop in class
At some point I picked up holdem manager and imported my hand histories. Over 1 million hands I had a win-rate of 0.5 bb/100 - Yeha I know, I played a shit-load of poker.
It was eye-opening though. I'd played one million hands for pennies, with a win-rate that was hardly even positive. Just imagine if I'd been crushing that whole time instead. If my win rate was 10 bb/100 i'd be up thousands.
So once again, I was determined to get better. I bought books. Lots of books. Like, enough to fill an entire shelf of my bookshelf. And I started reading.
The theory of poker was first. Every time your opponent makes a mistake, you win. Every time you make a mistake, your opponent wins. Yes, got it, basic stuff. What's next?
Professional no limit holdem volume 1. Pot odds, implied odds, stack to pot ratio. This was life-changing stuff. Simple mathemetical concepts I'd never considered before that made so much sense in hindsight. This was it, I didn't need to read any more. Like the cbet and then the set-mine, these concepts were the missing piece I needed to take my game to the next level.
Now I know you're thinking: "Yeah ok, this is great and all but can you get to the part where you lose 200k?". And yes. Yes I can.
So I started skipping uni completely to go to the casino every day. Obviosuly I realised that the rake on 1/1 and 1/2 was fucked, so I started playing 1/3. Even though I was over 1k up online, the buyins for this stake were still HUGE to me and I played pretty scared money. And honestly, I never ended up beating 1/3. I was break-even AT BEST. (I rationalised my results by blaming the high rake. It was unbeatable, you see)
But, I made some friends playing 1/3 at the casino. One guy, Billy, started to invite me to his home game. I LOVED Billy's home game because the rake was lower than the casino's and the buy-in was only $100, which was much more reasonable.
Billy had this rule, where you could buy-in for the max stack on the table. This worked well with my set-mining check-raise all-in strategy so of course I would always buy-in for the max.
One night i'm playing in this game that's been going for 2 days straight and one palyer's got a 2k stack on the table. He's one of the fishier players so I think to myself, why not? And I buy in for my entire roll. 2k.
First hand i get JJ. Flop comes AJ7r. I check, fish bets pot. "Got ya" I think to myself, and I raise all-in.
Snap call. Oh shit. He flips over AA.
I just lost my entire roll that i'd spent the past year grinding for over 1 million+ hands. I'm tilted. Billy asks me if i'm rebuying. That was my entire roll I say.
And then Billy utters the words that you've all been waiting for. "Credit?"
And yeah, basically that's it. I've played in Billy's game ever since. And funnily enough, it turns out I'm not some poker god, i'm just a grade-a egomaniac poker fish. Billy has me for 100k on his books and i've tracked another 100k in losses i've been able to repay. So i'm down 200k over my poker lifetime.
Also, I flunked out of uni. Got married and subsequently divorced due to financial arguments. If you want to know where the money's come from I can assure you it's not my parents or a trust fund or anything like that.
I sell drugs to poker players at Billy's game.
submitted by bagsbags28 to poker [link] [comments]

How to Become a Better Gambler Today Pt2

3 – Manage Your Bankroll

If you’re going to take your gambling seriously and would like to do as well as possible, then you need to manage your bankroll. All too often you’ll hear stories of people losing everything at the casino or track. While this is tragic it can be easily avoided with some discipline and a sound bankroll management strategy.
To start with, you should set aside a fixed amount of money you’re going to use for gambling purposes. This should be separate from money you use in everyday life. If you wish to add or subtract from this you can do so, but it should be only in certain situations and based on time, not on the amount of money you have in your bankroll.
Once you’ve done this, you can then start to think about how much of your bankroll you’re willing to risk each session or game. For those who are keen poker players, you may have heard that 5% is the key percentage when it comes to game cost to bankroll ratio.
That is, you should never risk more than 5% of your bankroll in a single game. This is a good rule to live by and should ensure that you never go truly broke. This is if you’re playing poker, betting on horses or sports, or playing daily fantasy sports, and that you’re implementing solid and successful strategies in doing so. This is the key.
If you play a negative expectation game your bankroll will slowly diminish over time, and eventually you’ll have to re-fill it from other areas of income. This is fine, provided you’re playing for entertainments sake and understand that you’ll lose in the long run.
One more key thing you’ll need to do when managing your bankroll is keeping track of everything. You can do this through a spreadsheet on your computer, or even a diary. It’s basically like keeping a budget on what you’ve spent money on, where you’ve made money, and where you’ve lost it.
This way you’ll be able to better track your spending patterns and manage your bankroll more effectively.
Finally, if you’re a recreational gambler and head to Las Vegas or Atlantic City once a year, then you can also implement some bankroll management tactics. The best one to use on short trips is to identify in advance how much money you’re going to gamble.
Then you can divide this up by the number of days you’re in town to work out your daily allowance. Once you’ve done this place each day’s amount in its own envelope. When you arrive in Las Vegas or wherever you may be, place the envelopes in the safe and then use each one on the relevant day.
Once you’ve spent all of the day’s money then that’s it; no more gambling. If you stick to this method you’ll never spend more than you’re meant to and quite often you’ll end up winning each day, which makes things even nicer.

4 – Don’t Drink While You Gamble

While this may seem like a no brainer, it’s amazing how often people drink far too much alcohol while they’re gambling.
The result is always the same; they lose far more money and make much riskier bets because their usually sound decision making is influenced negatively by the drinks. Casinos know and understand this. That’s why you’ll get free drinks while you gamble in Las Vegas, and in some other casinos around the United States. Free drinks while gaming is much less common in other areas in the world.
I just want to be clear here; there’s nothing wrong in my opinion in having a few drinks while you play. It’s even OK to get seriously drunk and have a lot of fun from time to time.
The main thing you need to do is control your losses. If you’re going to drink a lot you need to set up a system, while sober, to protect yourself, from yourself.
Some strategies to do this include leaving your wallet and credit cards in the room safe and only taking a set amount of money out with you, or you could also give these to a trustworthy friend to look after for the evening. They must be able to resist your efforts to get them back later, because trust me; more often than not you’ll try.
Obviously if you only have a few drinks and have some good self control you should be able to still stay with it enough to not risk too much money and stay within your pre-prescribed parameters. If you want to become a good gambler then this is as far as you should go. If you want to drink and have fun, then leave the tables and do so in the bar or restaurant, and have your fun socializing with friends and family instead of through gambling.
Casinos in Las Vegas are starting to crack down on free loaders betting the minimum amount to get free drinks. Unfortunately this is starting to disengage some of their keen gamblers and drinkers. It’s a real shame they’re going down this path, for a variety of reasons. But it should help you to not get as intoxicated and lose as much at the tables.
One other thing I would note, is that if you do end up drinking a lot and losing far too much money, don’t beat yourself up about it. That won’t help anything and in all likelihood, it will take you even further down a bad path. If you try to take the fun out of it, and learn from the experience, you’ll be much better off in the future.

5 – Learn How to Play and Win at Poker

By far, the best game to play in any casino is poker and therefore most casinos only offer it as almost an amenity and not a money making game.
They do make money on poker but it’s only a small amount. Poker is the best game to play because you can win in the long term and you aren’t battling against the house in a game that’s designed to slowly take all your money.
In poker, and I’m mostly talking about Texas holdem, you play against other people and battle it out across the felt to take each other’s money. As a result, you can win in the long term if you have a solid strategy and continuously make positive expectation plays. I’ll go into detail on this a bit more later.
Because poker is largely skill based, you can ride out the good and bad luck that you’ll encounter in the short term to make money in the long term. Many thousands of people in the United States and across the world make money player poker.
The key of course, is to be better than other players so you must continuously be learning and training to have a sufficient edge over others so that you can win.
This is where positive expectation comes into it. To win in the long term every decision you make at the table must be made so that it results in profits and winning in the long term.
You can learn one of two strategies to do this. These are game theory optimal and exploitation. I’m not going to go into these here, but now you know them you can learn more. You can find literally thousands of poker books out there, but ultimately you need to log hours at the table and play thousands of hands to become better. Over time you’ll start winning and will come out on top in the long run, if you’re willing to put in the effort and have some natural people reading talent.
If you live in the United States you won’t be able to play poker online, unless you’re in one of the singular states that offers restricted poker rooms. If you are then you should try to hone your skills in small games online first. This way you can learn the game and will be much more confident the first time you sit down at the real felt.
submitted by PresentType to thebestbet188 [link] [comments]

Updated Guide to Beating the Micros

Introduction
This is so long that I have to break it up into multiple parts as comments. Please upvote accordingly to make the parts land in the correct order, thanks!
Hey guys, so it's been a few months that I've been here now, and I'm trying more than ever to get into as much poker discussion as possible (which is a new aspect of my game) and I'm loving it. However, today I'm going to try my hand at piecing together something for /poker to really help our losing, breakeven, new uNL players. I am fully aware this has been done once before (especially since I will be quoting a lot of his content to really make this a jam packed guide) but it has now been 5 years since 'Sircuddles' writeup on 2p2. What I would like to accomplish with this, is touch on many of the things he did, and add many more, to really aid our new players and players having trouble beating the micros. As mentioned, I will even use some of the content 'Sircuddles' wrote, highlighted in bold to give credit for his writing, although I hear he quit playing so he probably wouldn't care regardless. Hopefully that way it's easier to combine all of the information rather than me trying to re-write some of his concepts and call them my own, which isn't necessary. I will also add some links during specific topics to videos I believe these players will find extremely useful. But without further ado, let's get into how you can start becoming a winning player and climb through those micros! This will probably be long.... veryyyyy long.
Disclaimer: I am no pro, and like all of us, have a lot to learn about the game. I used to play up to 600NL back in the day online when that was around the skill equivalent to 25-50NL these days. I regret almost more than anything not taking poker seriously back then, but alas, here we are. Since returning to the game this April/May area, after a near 3 year layoff I was still able to come back and beat 25NL on PS over a large sample, even though I feel cash is my weaker part of my game, as I really enjoy MTT's more than anything. My challenge($50-5000) is to help me improve drastically at 6max cash, engage in more poker discussion, work on my mental game, practice strict BRM and I hope this guide will help you guys, the losing, breakeven, new players gain some more skills to work your way through the micros. This guide doesn't cover a lot of more complex things that you will need to become thinking players in the future, but should be a great start.
TL;DR - If you're new to the game or not able to beat the micros, read it, if you're above 25NL, your choice if you want to read out of boredom, maybe refresh some things or pick up 1 or 2 new little things.
Definitions
Since this is aimed at including new players, we should go over some acronyms and definitions so you won't be lost during some of the discussion wondering what something simple like OOP means. -3bet - A bet (or blinds), a raise, then a reraise. This third action is a "3bet" -4bet - The fourth action, a raise of a 3bet. -AI - All In -AIPF - All in pre flop -ATC - Any two cards -AF - Aggression factor -Ax - Any ace with another card -bb - Big blind -BB - Big Bet -BB/100 - Big Bets won per 100 hands ( Standard measure of winrate) -b/c - Bet/call -b/f - Bet/fold -BR -Bankroll -BRM - Bankroll management -C-bet - Continuation bet after being the initial raiser -cc - Check/check -c/c Check/call -c/f - Check/fold -CK - Check -CO - Cutoff position, player to the right of the button -c/r - Check/raise -EP - Early position (under the gun, under the gun plus one) -EV (+/-) - Positive/negative expected value -FT - Final Table -HH - Hand history -HJ - Hijack position, player to the right of the cutoff -HU - Headsup -HUD - Heads up display -ICM - Independent chip model -LAG - Loose Aggressive player -LP - Late position -MTT - Multi-table tournament -OESD - Open-ended straight draw -OOP - Out of position -PF - Preflop -PFR - Preflop raise(r) -PSB - Pot sized bet -PSR - Pot sized raise -xxxr - Flop is rainbow (3 different suits) -ROI - Return on investment -SC - Suited connector -SH - Shorthanded -SNG - SitnGo tournament -SS - Short stack -STT - Single table tournament -TAG - Tight aggressive player -TPTK - Top pair top kicker -TPGK - Top pair good kicker -UTG - Under the gun (First position to the left of the big blind) -UTG + 1 - The player left of UTG -VB - Value bet -VPIP - %Voluntarily put ($) in pot
Before you sit at the table
There are many factors to consider, or tools you should acquire before even sitting down at a table to play. Let's go over some of them and see if you have these tools or use these tricks to aid in your game.
1) The first and most obvious, a HUD. If you don't have a HUD, on a site that allows them, plain and simple you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. Even if you only 1 table and take excellent notes, it's still worth having, nobody wants to single table forever!
HUD's generally cost around $100 and they will pay for themselves over and over after you become comfortable with using it. Not to mention it tracks all of your play for you, goodbye Microsoft excel spreadsheet! Of the HUD's available, it's fairly common knowledge that Holdem Manager 2, and Pokertracker 4 are the cream of the crop. Both of which have free trials so you can test the waters with both and make a better informed decision (personally I use HM2). If $100 is too expensive for you, there are ways of acquiring them for cheaper, but it takes more effort also, something you can look into on their sites.
Rather than me personally explaining to you how you should use your HUD or set it up at all (which I can't anyways, as you grow you'll learn what stats you want and don't) I will simply link an excellent video that should really help the players new to the HUD world get started. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MLFfC9TCiA If your main focus is going to be on cash games, I also recommend watching the rest of his videos. He even goes as far as reading the comments on his videos, answering questions and taking suggestions for future videos.
An equity tool like "Pokerstove" or "Equilab" by Pokerstrategy.com will be a big help in learning to figure out equity on the fly over time. You should have one of these to use during your session reviews to plug in specific hands to really determine if spots you got into were correct in the long run. I myself use Equilab as I had a hard time finding a good copy of Pokerstove.
2) Understanding player types is something you should be well versed in, as once you know how they play, you can learn how to exploit each type.
Multi-tabling nit (~3-10/2-8) - This type of player is very easy to run over. Be careful playing back at them though, because usually when they’re in a pot they have a very good hand. If one of these guys calls your pre flop raise, you bet the flop and he sticks around or raises then you’re probably beat even if you have TPTK. Most of the times they’ll show up with a set in these situations. Most of these players won’t be interested in you, they’re after the fish. However if they do start betting into you, be very careful. Steal their blinds for days as they will never defend without a big hand.
Passive Fish (~30+/10) – This is what is commonly known as a calling station. They don’t like to raise (as evident by their low pre flop raise stat) and don’t like to bet. They’d rather just play nice friendly poker and call your bets. Do not bluff a calling station. They will call you down with any piece of the board. These are the best players to play with because it’s very easy to extract value from them.
Aggro Fish (~30+/30+) – These players are worse to play with than calling stations, but still very profitable. They’ll make a lot of donk bets, bet any untouched pot and are generally very loose and aggro. The way to counter these players is to get a premium hand (TPTK+) and let them bluff their money away. Unless they bet very small it’s usually best to just call, because most of the time they’ll try to keep pushing you off of your hand. Calling the flop and raising the turn is often a good play against these types of players (provided you have a hand), because a large part of the time they’ll convince themselves you’re stealing, and they certainly won’t stand for any of that.
RegulaTAG (~12-18/~10-16) – These are the dangerous players. These are pretty standard stats for someone from 2p2. They’re likely positionally aware and playing much like you are. If a regular is aware that you are a regular you can try making moves on them, but don’t do it often. Once you start building on your game these are the people you’ll want to test your moves on because they are (usually) thinking players. Keep in mind this only applies if they know you as a solid player. If you’re unknown to them or they think you’re a fish then they’ll play against you as such. The regulars described here are generally in the TAG category, and while they are dangerous, there is also one more dangerous opponent we should mention which will be down below, the LAG/reg.
Bad TAG (~12-18/~10-16) - You may be wondering what the difference is between a good TAG and a bad TAG, because many of their stats are quite similar, however there are two glaring stats with differences that make all the difference in the world as to why these players are far worse than a good TAG. Their VPIP and PFR will be almost identical to that of a good TAG, but their 3bet and AF will be significantly lower. These players are far easier to read than good TAG's and the lower their numbers, the easier it becomes. Sometimes you'll see them with a 3bet of 1-2% over 500-1K hands, which makes it quite easy to get out of their way when they do decide to 3bet as opposed to a reg TAG whose 3betting 10%. Just keep an eye out and you'll see the difference right away, and that is why I label them differently as well.
LAG/reg (~24-40/~14-30) - These players are even more dangerous than a good TAG player, as they can generally have the range of an Aggro fish, but are far superior with post flop play. If you yourself are not great at post flop play, and play on a site with many tables open at a time (ie Pokerstars), it's probably best to avoid this type of player until you become a winning reg yourself and understand how they play. They will call raises, bet often to the point of what seems like they are a maniac, but when you get the nuts and think "Bammm, here's my chance to stack this asshole that's been running the table over", they will get away from the hand cheaply, leaving you confused and pissed off how he "knew" you had it. Good thing for you there aren't many at all in the micros, the majority are just your general aggrotard who will do your value betting for you.
Short Stackers (20BB - 50BB stacks) – These come in many varieties. Most shorties are horrible. Because of this and the fact that their stack is small you’ll often find yourself flipping with them. If you’re playing 25NL and someone has a $7 stack and shoves over your pre flop raise and everyone else has folded, you can feel pretty comfortable getting it all in with a hand like TT. The reason for this is that most of the time they’ll be a coin flip at best. Shorties will frequently stack off pre flop with hands like KQ, AJ, 77 and even worse. It’s for this reason that you’ll generally stack off pretty lightly against them. Keep in mind this is all general information, if you find a shortie that is tight and he shoves pre flop, don’t go in there without a quality hand. Most shorties don’t fit that definition though.
UnknownsIf you don’t know a player and have no stats on them or reads on how they play, always give them the benefit of the doubt. It’s true there are tons of donks and fish at the micro limits, but there are even more regulars and nits. It is a mistake to treat all unknowns like fish simply due to the fact that the nits and regulars outnumber the fish at the micros. Once you have 50-100 hands on someone or see them do something you’ll have a better idea of how they play. If a total unknown raises your flop bet and you have air, fold. If a total unknown raises your flop bet and you have TPTK, call. If he bets the turn, it’s probably best to just fold until you have more information. Fighting unknowns is a marginal situation, stay away from it.
General tips for 25NL and below: -If a passive opponent starts raising or betting strong, you should probably fold without a set or better. -Don’t bluff any fish. -Don’t play back at any fish. -Always keep in mind who you are playing against. -Fold more. A common mistake at the micros is to call too much, just fold. ‘Oh but that flop doesn’t his his range, blah blah blah’ – NO! Just fold. -They aren’t playing back at you. If someone at the micros raises you, they usually have what they represent. If you think a fish is trying to steal from you and you don’t have anything to fight back with, just fold. Let him take the pot, you can stack him later. You will get bluffed at poker and people will steal pots from you, get used to it. -Seriously, fold more.
EDIT: Thanks for the Gold!
submitted by MrMogz to poker [link] [comments]

Bets and Bravery: Chapter 946!

Yeah, yeah, Big Mom appearing is cool and all, but we expected it. Queen's Devil Fruit was unexpected, but he was immediately low-diffed. Hawkins is an asshole, this is all old news. What we really should be talking about is the return of Lanji once he saw that Zoro had the most beautiful woman in Wano at his side.
Oda, please give my boy a W one of these days. And, no, Pudding doesn't count since she erased his memory. Just have her come back for real, or something, please. I need my Sanji happy fluff.
ALERT. ALERT. HIGH-QUALITY HANDMADE MEME LOCATED AT THIS LINK. CLICK AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Links

Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls, and everybody in between, welcome back to...

Bets and Bravery!

Welcome one, welcome all, we're glad to have you! If you're new to Bets and Bravery, B&B is a weekly thread on this subreddit where users bet with fake currency, the Beli from in-universe, on what they think will happen in each week's chapter in a series of bets made by yours truly. I keep track of everyone's money in a giant Google Sheet, which is available in the links above. So, if you're new, enjoy your time! But, if you're a regular on this thread, we're glad to see you back at OnePiece's unofficial official pasttime!
I hope you've all had a good week so far with whatever's been happening in your lives. If you haven't had such a good week so far, I'm wishing the best for you and hope I can brighten your day even a little bit with this post.
Unfortunately for you big boys out there who went all-in last week, you barely get any money to play with this week since you lost it all last time! So, essentially this week the house will win for certain unless Kid and Killer both get saved, in which case the house will be out over 200,000,000 Beli, but I digress so, ha!
Before we get started, let's refresh your memory of last chapter to get you back on betting track!

Last Time on One Piece

Jumping right back into the chaos in the Flower Capital, Zoro found himself unable to get past Kyoshiro to take down Orochi, allowing for the Oniwabanshu Squad to arrive on the scene. Sanji passes Toko off to Usopp, who runs for safety while Sanji fights Drake. Brook protects Hiyori by scaring away the Oniwabanshu with his soul while other members of the squad chase her down. Law reaches the Ratetsu jail only to find Shachi and Penguin of his crew, as Bepo is being held elsewhere. On top of that, Hawkins, who arrives to combat Law, reveals that he's turned his beloved crewmates into voodoo lives of his, making their jailbreak impossible. Sanji is prevented from rushing to the beautiful Hiyori's aid by Drake and is shocked to see Zoro save her instead. We then visit Ashura, who is justifiably angry that Kin'emon and Inuarashi framed them for the attack on Holdem's forces, leading Kin'emon to apologize wholeheartedly for not just that, but for being inconsiderate about his feelings after their 20 years' absence. Kin'emon invites Ashura to join them in the raid on Onigashima, who tells the samurai he needs to show him something first. Back in Udon, Big Mom busts down the gate and everyone understandably shits themselves upon seeing a Yonkou invade. Big Mom smells o-shiruko, and calls for Chopper's group to follow her inside before she asks Queen for the tasty treat she was promised. Queen won't back down and let someone else eat his favorite food, so to show Big Mom who's the boss in Udon, Queen fucking dies learns the hard way that Yonkou will be Yonkou.
Another stellar chapter, let's keep this streak going, Oda! But, with that out of the way, let's get into the real meat of the thread...

Chapter 946 Betting

The Bets of the Week

Bet 325

With all the chaos currently ravaging not just the Ratetsu Prisoner District but now the Flower Capital too, the odds are being stacked against our heroes. With big players like Kyoshiro, X Drake, Hawkins, the Oniwabanshu, the countless fodder and probably some others too on the scene, our heroes have some formidable matchups preventing a clean escape.
And, as it is right now, Zoro can't overcome Kyoshiro, Law can't fight Hawkins, Usopp's running away as usual and Hiyori's too important to risk her safety. So, the only option for our heroes is to run from the scene and regroup at a later time and location. Dear audience, will the Strawhat Alliance manage to escape from the Flower Capital?

Bet 326

Following Lord Jahsuie Yasuie's sacrifice, Kin'emon was inspired to change his approach in recruiting Ashura Douji to the Kozuki cause. As Kin said, he acted rashly and without consideration for how Ashura's loyalties and mindset would change in the 20-year absence of the time travel gang. So, now with Yasuie's conviction backing him, Kin bowed before Ashura and begged for forgiveness, telling him the planned raid date on Onigashima before asking for his aid one more time.
However, Ashura Douji is a changed man. 20 years is a lot of time, and it certainly will change someone. Not just the isolation, loneliness, and the bleak days under Kaido's rule, but the fact that old friends from 20-years past came back acting like everything was the exact same. On top of that, they immediately started causing trouble for him, framing him for crimes and indirectly causing his hideout to be burned to the ground. Despite all this, perhaps Ashura has come around, as rather than immediately turn Kin'emon down like usual, he told the samurai to follow him to see something he wanted to show them. Dear audience, what does Ashura Douji want to show Kin'emon and Inuarashi?

Bet 327

If I lost weight, I'd be too popular!! So that's why I stay Big!!
Funk!!
I may seem round, but it's all muscle!! It's time to sing and dance!!
Funk!!
He's the man, the myth, the legend, the Beasts Pirates' All-Star, Queen the Plague, sporting a bounty of 1.32 Billion Beli! More than that, he's the head of the Udon region of Wano and the wielder of the Ryuu Ryuu no Mi: Brachiosaurus Model! With all that to his name, surely he must be a formidable force to be reckoned with... right? not my coloring, here is the link to the post, it's just easier to link a picture, don't go and crucify me. ugh.
Dear audience, is Queen actually down for the count?

Bet 328

This bet is where you can bet how many pages Chapter 946 will feature!
Note: Shounen Jump covers, fan art pages, or translator note pages from either Jaimini's Box or Mangastream are not counted here. Double page spreads are counted as two separate pages. Color pages and color spreads are counted. Cover story serials and fan-requested cover pages are counted.

Bet 329

Our final bet this week is about the main focus of this week's chapter! The chapter may cover multiple storylines, in which case, the correct answer will be whichever storyline the chapter gave the most attention to in terms of pages or panels, should it get that close!

Weekly Mini-Game

We've been paying a lot of respects with our mini-games recently, so let's continue the trend! You should already know what it's gonna be from that introduction So, this WMG will focus on the now deceased Queen the Plague. Dear audience, I want you to guess in how many panels Kaido's All-Star Queen will appear!
Guess 100% correctly on this, and you'll receive a whopping 1,500,000 Beli! If nobody guesses correctly, the closest answer receives 750,000 Beli! If multiple people guess correctly or are evenly close to the correct answer, the bounty is evenly split among them to the nearest 1,000 Beli!

End of Chapter 946 Betting

And with that, we've made it through another exciting week of Betting and Bravery! I hope you enjoyed what we had this week, as I enjoyed making B&B for you!
Now, please listen to the following tutorial on how to play:

Here's an example of a good comment:

I do have lots of Beli to bet with, but it's all mine...!! I won't let the house have a single bill of it, u/MADKITTIEZ!!!
200K on 325B!
150K on 326C!
1M on 327B!
250K on 328B!
2M on 329A!
7 panels for the WMG!
If only u/bigbetsman123 knew he's already 10M in debt to the house...!!

Notes and Reminders

Thanks for Participating!

Thanks to everyone out there who dropped by to read this thread, whether all the way through, just skimming, or just dropping by to see what this thread was. I'm truly grateful you all come by and support my work here as much as you do, so thank you. I hope I can keep living up to your expectations as host!
I wish you all good luck on this week's bets, and I will see you all back later this week after the chapter drops and the results thread is out for you all to see how you did! Until next time!
-MADKITTIEZ
submitted by MADKITTIEZ to OnePiece [link] [comments]

After winning $1.3 Million at a Casino, Why does a man cover himself in Gasoline and drop a lit Match?

Myra Kindle is an independent investigative reporter.
Her other reports:

Boardwalk Attraction

What drives a person to cover themselves in gasoline and drop a match by their feet?
That was the question that ran through the minds of many in a crowd outside the Borgata Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey on March 23rd, 2019.
At approximately 7:45PM on that cold spring eve, a Mr. James Ferdini, age 47, covered himself in gasoline and was prepared to drop a match in the fuel.
As the crowd shouted for him to stop and several witnesses called the police, Mr. Ferdini reportedly stood unfazed, simply grinning and appearing to revel in the crowd’s shock.
“It was a suicidal action but it didn’t look like a suicidal person,” says Sam Kenset, an eyewitness to the incident. “I guess I don’t really know what a suicidal person looks like, but his movements and the way he was talking -- he just didn’t seem like a man down on his luck.”
Ms. Kenset is quite astute in her observation -- Mr. Feredini was certainly not down on his luck. In fact only moments before covering himself in gasoline, Mr. Ferdini had cashed out more than $1.3 million in winnings from the Borgata Hotel and Casino, making his suicidal action all the more puzzling.
However dangerous, Mr. Ferdini’s gasoline soaked stunt would not lead to his death on March 23rd, but his life was not long for this world either. Three days later on March 26th he would be found dead from an entirely different cause.
In Mr. Ferdini’s incredible winnings and suicidal tendencies leading up to his unusual and grizzly death on March 26th, many questions remain. Who was James Ferdini? What happened to his more than million dollars in winnings? And what was the lead up of events that caused his demise?
Based on interviews with management at the Borgata Hotel and Casino, local police and investigators, and corroborated with eyewitness accounts, independent investigative reporter Myra Kindle, for the first time, brings you a report on the man who nearly bankrupted a casino, and whose luck seemed to make him invincible until his highly improbable death.

What are the Odds?

As the match fell to James Ferdini’s feet outside the Borgata Hotel and Casino, the crowd stood agasp as they waited for the inevitable fire and horrible death of a gas soaked man. This moment would never come however, and the match reportedly landed in the puddle of gasoline meeting it as though it were water.
“The crowd started to look away the moment he dropped the match,” says Matthew Gershowitz, a witness to the event. “I couldn’t though -- I needed to see what would happen. I mean we all thought we were witnessing a suicide or something, but the guy was jovial, happy, making jokes with the crowd before he lit the match. And then when it hit the gas, it just burned out, and the man started laughing. We were all amazed. It was like a miracle -- we thought he’d die for sure.”
While it’s quite understandable that the crowd believed they had witnessed a miracle when James did not burst into flames, professor of organic chemistry at Villanova University, Marcy Li, says the odds of Mr. Ferdini’s death were far less than certain.
“Gasoline is certainly flammable, but not like in the way shown in movies and TV,” says professor Li. “It’s the layer of vapor above that gasoline that is most likely to combust. There could be a number of factors like wind, humidity and temperature that improved Mr. Ferdini’s chance of avoiding being burned alive. I would certainly say he’s lucky, but I wouldn’t say it’s a miracle he didn’t burst into flames.”
If Mr. Ferdini relied on luck that day to survive, it would appear to have been with him in spades for quite some time.
Having just come from the Borgata casino floor, James was reportedly on a ‘hot-streak’, winning tens of thousands of dollars an hour over the preceding two days.
“You have to imagine we were pretty happy when he left the casino,” says Richard Markelson, a floor manager at the Borgata. “Normally we want customers to stay as long as possible so the house can win our money back, but Mr. Ferdini never had a bad roll, spin, or lever pull the whole 40 consecutive hours he was gambling at the Borgata. I’ve never seen anything like it.”
Mr. Markelson was able to confirm through cash-logs and casino surveillance that Mr. Ferdini had indeed won big at the Borgata, and records show his total winnings amounted to $1,348,427.
Mr. Markelson said of the winnings: “It was enough of a loss over a short period of time that the owners of the casino were worried our insurance premiums were gonna jump. A casino in Atlantic City simply doesn’t lose that much money in such a short time, at least not to a nobody, and Mr. Ferdini was certainly a nobody.”

A Career Loser

While management at the Borgata Hotel and Casino did not know Mr. Ferdini prior to his 40 hour lucrative gambling binge, many on Atlantic City’s boardwalk have been acutely aware of James for years.
For example after James’s stunt with the gasoline, he was arrested and taken to the Atlantic City jail and held on the possible charge of disorderly conduct, but was released after the charges were dropped. The reason? The police had a long record of interactions with Mr. Ferdini and thought of him only as a minor risk.
“We were more worried about the guy’s mental health than him causing a scene on the boardwalk,” says Atlantic City officer Paul Stevenson. “We’ve known James for years -- I mean he’s a loser. Is it a shock to me that he would try and commit suicide like that? Absolutely not.”
When asked why the police did not opt to commit Mr. Ferdini to a hospital on a psychological evaluation, officer Stevenson replied: “The plan was to have him committed, but some lawyer showed up and we didn’t want a legal fight, so we decided to release him instead. I felt a bit mixed about it. I mean the guy was clearly suicidal -- why else would you douse yourself in gasoline?”
When told that Mr. Ferdini was reportedly jovial and happy during the gasoline incident, and that he had in fact won more than a million dollars immediately prior to the event, officer Stevenson struggled with the narrative: “That doesn’t sound like the James Ferdini I know. He’s always been a depressed gambler, and never won a game in his life as far as I know. He couldn’t win a hundred bucks, let alone a million. I can’t even believe they let him into the Borgata in the first place, but I guess the cash winnings explains the lawyer.”
Officer Stevenson asked if I could confirm the details of the winnings and that Mr. Ferdini was in a jovial mood during the gasoline incident. When I showed documentation of Mr. Ferdini’s winnings provided by Mr. Markelson and relayed several eyewitness accounts as to his temperament, officer Stevenson replied: “I don’t get it. So, why’d he try to burn himself alive?”

The ‘Cooler’

Perhaps no individual has a better sense of who Mr. Ferdini is and what happened to him than the floor manager at the Borgata, Mr. Markelson.
For 40 hours prior to the gasoline incident, Mr. Ferdini bet heavily at the Borgata casino, and Mr. Markelson was in close proximity for much of his hot-streak.
“I was actually supposed to be on vacation that week,” says Mr. Markelson, “but I got called in because the other cooler was sick.”
A ‘cooler’ as Mr. Markelson explained, is a relic of old casinos that today is rarely used, however some establishments still invest in what could be called ‘charms’ to bring bad luck to high rollers.
“I got hired because I’m unlucky,” explains Mr. Markelson. “I can do the job of floor manager just fine -- don't get me wrong -- but it was my knack for bad luck that got me the job for sure.”
A cooler operates by simply being present around those that are on a run of good luck. In Mr. Markelson’s account, he says that being around him will bring such bad luck to any gambler that their cards will go cold, their lever pulls result in no winnings, and their wheel spins doomed to lose money.
“It’s a talent I’ve had since, well, forever,” says Mr. Markelson. “If I just stand near someone, they’ll start to have bad luck like me. I know it sounds crazy, and sometimes I don’t believe it myself, but it’s true. I mean, like I said, I think that’s why the casino hired me. They could count on me to go onto the casino floor and bring bad luck to anyone that’s winning a bit too much. Best part, since it’s based on superstition, it’s completely above board.”
With James Ferdini, Richard Markelson found that his power did not work however.
“I don’t know about before I showed up, but for when I was watching him, that man could not lose. The casino made me stay multiple shifts, I’m talking nearly 40 hours to watch him and were hoping I’d bring him bad luck, but it never happened. He just kept on winning no matter what game he played.”

An Escalation of Bets

In attempting to find James Ferdini’s state of mind prior to the gasoline incident, floor manager Richard Markelson provided unfettered access to video of the casino floor, even though he realized he could be breaking several state gambling commission laws by allowing a reporter to look at such surveillance. In fact, more than taking the risk, it was Mr. Markelson that called me and led me to this story in the first place.
“The police didn’t send him to the hospital after the gas thing I’ve been told. I figured the truth has to be somewhere and when police won’t do their job, I guess it’s reporters that have to step in,” says Mr. Markelson. “The most important thing to be me personally is finding out why he died just a few days later in that horrible freak accident -- the one on March 26th.”
When asked if Mr. Markelson had any interest in finding Mr. Ferdini’s still missing $1.3 million, he replied: “Of course, but that’s not my primary concern here. I just want to know what the fuck happened. How does a guy who should have felt on top of the world go to dousing himself in gasoline, and then ends up dead a few days later? I really want to know.”
In the video access provided by Mr. Markelson, I managed to find new clues that might be able to explain Mr. Ferdini’s downward spiral.
It could best be described as an escalation of bets that appeared to take place soon after Mr. Ferdini began his run of good luck. According to video of the casino floor, around the time manager Richard Markelson appeared, Mr. Ferdini started his miraculous winning streak.
The video shows Mr. Ferdini starting with craps, moving to baccarat, then slot machines, and followed by a long run at twenty-one. He continues to gamble for 40 straight hours, much of it with Mr. Markelson in close proximity.
“I was the only cooler around, so the higher ups at the Borgata made me stay the whole time. I got a lot of overtime that week,” says Mr. Markelson.
Curiously, the video shows that at around the 25 hour mark Mr. Ferdini attracts something of a crowd. While the video offers no sound, it appears as though Mr. Ferdini is making several wagers with his new found groupies.
At first a few in his new entourage gamble him directly in casino floor games like Texas Holdem, but it appears as though they make several bets outside of the casino games as well.
In one instance Mr. Ferdini appears to bet that he can drink boiling hot water. The video shows him drinking a scalding hot cup and immediately receiving a small payout from several people he was talking to before beginning the stunt.
It became clear to me after reviewing the video surveillance that for this story, I would need to speak to at least one of the people who witnessed Mr. Ferdini taking on these non-casino game bets. Thankfully, with Mr. Markelson’s help I was able to track down Maria Nowak, who in the video appears to spend several hours with Mr. Ferdini.
A resident of Atlantic City, Ms. Nowak was able to confirm that Mr. Ferdini was taking part in what she describes as “extreme behavior”, and that he was seemingly willing to bet on anything and everything. Even games that were clearly not of chance, like drinking boiling hot water.

”For $500, Right?”

Why did Mr. Ferdini cover himself in gasoline and drop a match? It’s a question essential to understanding his mindset, and one for which the answer appears to be quite simple.
After tracking down Ms. Nowak, a long time resident who often partakes in long gambling binges herself, she claims Mr. Ferdini covered himself in gasoline and dropped a match in the fuel simply because of a wager.
“We had been doing side bets for hours,” says Ms. Nowak, who agreed to meet me at Hayday Cafe, a local coffee shop. “I was with a group of friends and we noticed that this guy [Mr. Ferdini] had not been losing any bets for hours. The guy was pretty much throwing money around and that type of attitude attracts the crowd I was with. So, we started making small talk and then made a few bets, dumb, small ones to start.”
When asked what bets her group made with Mr. Ferdini, Ms. Nowak replies: “At first it was things like, how many casino chips he could fit into his mouth. But then it escalated pretty quickly, like soon we were betting on how much money he could win in an hour. Then a bit after that he did this really stupid boiling hot water challenge -- he simply bet he could drink boiling hot water without having to go to the hospital. The bet didn’t make any sense, but like everything else, he won.”
“The gasoline challenge was the craziest though,” she continues. “It was clearly a joke when my friend suggested it, but James took him up on it right away. The challenge was, like, ‘can you cover yourself in gasoline, drop a match, and survive?’ James said he would do it for $500, and we just assumed he was kidding, but sure enough he was dead serious.”
Ms. Nowak claims that she too was present in the crowd outside the Borgata when Mr. Ferdini made good on the gasoline bet, and that immediately prior to him dropping the match, he said to her and the rest of the gambling entourage, “This is for $500, right?”
“He said it but I’m not too sure how many people heard it,” Ms. Nowak says. “I mean the whole crowd was screaming for him to stop. They all thought the guy wanted to kill himself. I guess one of us nodded our heads to James’s question, and then he dropped the match. I’ll be damned, but he won that bet too. We gave him $500 alright, not that he needed it after making all that money at the Borgata.”
When asked if Ms. Nowak saw Mr. Ferdini after he was released from the police station, she responds: “Yea, we hung out for the next two or three days -- all of us -- the gambling group that had formed at the casino, James Ferdini, and then, oh yea, that guy Richard Makel-something. I think he worked at the Borgata but he hung around with us for a couple days while we partied at a different hotel. It was around the time Richard and the rest of us left that James was in that freak accident.”

Richard Markelson

The details of Ms. Nowak’s account have confirmed two things to this reporter.
One, Mr. Ferdini’s suicidal gesture to cover himself in gasoline was nothing more than a bet to earn more money. Feeling high from his good luck at the casino, it would appear Mr. Ferdini thought himself invincible and was willing to take on any challenge, even if it put his life on the line.
Two, Borgata floor manager and ‘cooler’ Richard Markelson has not been fully forthcoming in his account of what happened. For example, he never mentioned spending time with Mr. Ferdini after leaving the Borgata.
Confronting Mr. Markelson, I ask him for a more accurate account of what happened after Mr. Ferdini’s gasoline soaked stunt. Mr. Markelson is nervous in his reply, realizing he’s been caught withholding valuable information.
“You have to understand that James is not particularly good with money,” starts Mr. Markelson. “I know I’m saying that having really only met the guy at the Borgata casino, but you could just tell he was something of a loser. Maybe other people told you that too, I don’t know. My point is James was destined to spend that money on drugs and alcohol, and well, we all kind of just tagged along for the ride.”
Mr. Markelson goes on to describe a drug fueled binge that lasted from Saturday March 23rd until sometime before Mr. Ferdini’s death on Tuesday, March 26th.
“James and I had been awake for more than 40 hours when he left the casino, and I was going to go to bed, but somehow I got roped into his entourage he found at the Borgata when he was raking in cash. I would’ve gone home, but free cocaine is free cocaine. I’m not particularly proud of saying that, but it’s true -- I really like the drug.”
Richard Markelson says that in addition to drugs, Mr. Ferdini hired prostitutes and strippers for the group’s amusement.
“I’m not into all the seedy stuff, but we had been awake for a long long time and on so much shit. I mean we were taking meth rips and stuff. Yea, it’s weird now that I look back on it, but a binge can be like that sometimes.”
The most important question to this reporter is what happened in the final hours of Mr. Ferdini’s life. In this respect, Mr. Markelson claims to know nothing.
“I left before he died on Tuesday,” says Mr. Markelson. “It doesn’t surprise me that he died though. The gasoline bet was just the beginning of it. That girl, Maria Nowak, the one that told you I was hanging out with the impromptu entourage -- it was her boyfriend that really stepped things up in a pretty violent way in terms of betting.”
When asked what he means by “violent”, Mr. Markelson responds: “I mean they were actually gambling on Russian roulette in the hotel room when I left.”

That Other Roulette

Once again reaching out to Ms. Nowak, I ask her about Mr. Markelson’s description of partying and gambling in a hotel with Mr. Ferdini.
It was at this point that Ms. Nowak declined any further questions, only providing the statement: “I’ve said everything I’m going to say.”
While this seemed like a certain dead end to discovering what happened in the final hours of Mr. Ferdini’s life and also possibly to tracking down what happened to his $1.3 million in winnings, I by luck received a phone call shortly before I was ready to call it quits on this investigation.
The phone call was from one Mr. Samuel Howlser, boyfriend to Ms. Maria Nowak.
Mr. Howlser said he wished to speak with me to clarify a few details that Ms. Nowak had shared with me and to dispute any “lies” stated by Mr. Markelson.
“Me and Maria didn’t steal nobody’s money and we’re not gonna get in trouble for what Richard Markelson or anyone in that entourage might be telling you,” Mr. Howsler said to me in a phone interview.
When asked about details of the drug fueled gambling binge shared by Mr. Markelson and Ms. Nowak, Mr. Howsler mostly confirms their accounts, however his description of floor manager Makelson is less favorable than what Mr. Markelson told me himself.
“He was the craziest fucker of the bunch, definitely,” says Mr. Howlser. “He knew the hookups for the crystal and coke, got us ketamine too. But the nuttiest thing about him is what the fuck he’d bet on. Like if Ferdini thought he was invincible, doubly so for that manger from the Borgata. Markelson was the one that brought out a revolver for Russian roulette too, and they played like dozens of games.”
Russian roulette, a lethal game of chance that has the player hold a loaded pistol to their head and fire, is an extremely dangerous game that has been popularized in media and fiction for decades. The game requires a loaded revolver to have at least one bullet chambered before firing, with the odds of death usually being one in six.
“It was fucking crazy when Markelson said he’d play it, but the dude was having as good luck as Ferdini so he thought he could do it,” says Mr. Howlser. “So they load a pistol with a bullet and start playing each other cause they were the only two fuckers crazy enough to do it. They play one round, but no winner so they go again. Second round, no winner so a third. Eventually they play enough rounds where they figure they gotta up the odds. So instead of loading one bullet, they load two. They play round after round with two out of six chambers loaded with bullets, spinning the revolver cylinder each time before they pull the trigger. This goes on for a while right, and then they load another fucking bullet. Each round now these guys have a one-in-two chance of blowing their brains out, but they keep playing.”
In Mr. Howlser’s recounting over the phone, I hear he is deeply disturbed by this story and ask why him and everyone in the gambling entourage continued to sit in the hotel room. In response he says, “We had been up for days smoking crystal and doing other shit. We were fuckng zombies. It’s only looking back now, sober, that I can see how crazy it was.”
But the game of lethal roulette was not over yet. Mr. Howlser claims that Mr. Ferdini and Mr. Makelson continued to play round after round, occasionally loading another bullet until finally the revolver was fully loaded.
“With six out of six chambers loaded, the odds of them dying on the next trigger pull was 100%,” says Mr. Howsler. “And I’ll damned, but they both went, and they both fucking lived. Somehow, they both got dud cartridges. After that, they both just had huge laugh for a while. A little bit later, Richard Markelson leaves and James Ferdini and the rest of us stay doing drugs for a bit until the rest of us guests leave too.”
Before Mr. Howlser ends the phone call, he stresses again the reason for contacting me.
“What happened is a messed up story, I know, but the point is that me and Maria don’t know anything about James Ferdini’s death or where his money is. Once we were sober enough to leave that seedy hotel outside Atlantic City, we left along with the rest of the people that were following James. And when we left, he was alive, and he had his money.”

Bad Luck

While Mr. Markelson, Mr. Howlser, and Ms. Nowak all say they only know the most basic details of how James Ferdini died, his death has actually been well documented by investigators and the coroner's office for Atlantic City.
Prior to this report, it was the mindset of Mr. Ferdini that was previously unknown. Sill up in the air is the whereabouts of his $1.3 million. But from what I've found, the report on his death is fully accurate, and even clears any of the entourage that was following him from being involved in any possible wrongdoing related to James Ferdini’s death.
On Tuesday March 26th at approximately 4:30AM, it would appear Mr. Ferdini’s luck simply ran out.
In that early morning hour, someone on Mr. Ferdini’s floor had ordered room service. As the porter was delivering the food, he slipped and fell outside of Mr. Ferdini’s room.
The noise from the fall awoke Mr. Ferdini who opened his door to find the porter picking up a tray of food in the hallway.
Upset at the disruption and the clanging of silverware outside his room, Mr. Ferdini proceeded to yell at the porter, pushing him against the wall in the hallway.
The confrontation ended when Mr. Ferdini told the porter that he was so upset that he was going to go down to the lobby and speak to management about the disruption.
Heading to the elevator, the porter told Mr. Ferdini that it was out of service. Frustrated, he turned to the stairwell and began walking downstairs.
Mr. Ferdini would never make it to the lobby however.
What Mr. Ferdini didn’t know was that the porter had also used the stairs to walk up to his floor, and that along the way he had spilled a small dish of ketchup.
When Mr. Ferdini walked across the spot where the porter had dropped the ketchup, he slipped and fell, falling down the stairs and knocking himself unconscious on the ground floor.
While in bad shape, investigators say that Mr. Ferdini was still alive at this moment, but what came next would be the fatal blow, or series of blows.
With the elevator out, the stairwell was the only way up and down the hotel floors. While Mr. Ferdini was unconscious on the ground, he blocked the entryway to the stairwell from the ground floor. A guest a moment later would attempt to open the door to the stairwell, but found that it was blocked by some obstruction that he could not see. Bothered and wanting to get to his room, the guest then started slamming on the door, thrusting it open with all his energy. He did not realize it, but the door he was thrusting over and over was slamming into the left side of Mr. Ferdini’s temple. The heavy metal door banged away over and over again, causing Mr. Ferdini’s brain to hemorrhage, and eventually doing enough damage that it would kill him fully.
The guest only stopped thrusting as the porter came back down the stairs to see Mr. Ferdini with his head being repeatedly bashed in by the door.
The porter screamed and soon the guest was made aware that he had accidentally killed Mr. Ferdini.
In this unusual and grizzly death, a confluence of bad luck came together to end Mr. Ferdini’s life.
If the elevator had not been out. If a guest on Mr. Ferdini’s floor had not ordered room service. If the guest had not ordered a dish that came with ketchup. If the porter had not spilled ketchup in the stairwell or dropped plates outside Mr. Ferdini’s room. If Mr. Ferdini had not waken up. If he had not confronted the porter and decided to go down to the lobby. If he had not slipped in the stairwell. If a guest on the ground floor did not repeatedly try to enter the stairwell. If any of these things had gone slightly differently, Mr. Ferdini would still be alive.
It could be said that Mr. Ferdini had finally found a run of bad luck, and incredible bad luck at that.

Double Negative

I cannot speak to Mr. Ferdini. He died long before I came to Atlantic City. For this story I’ve had to rely on the video surveillance from the Borgata casino and several eyewitness accounts of the drug fueled binge at the seedy hotel outside Atlantic City.
In those accounts from Mr. Ferdini’s hotel room, I’m left with conflicting views and shattered narratives.
It is clear to me that Ms. Nowak, Mr. Howlser, and Mr. Markelson cannot be trusted to give a full accounting of what happened. In my mind, the clearest liar of them is Mr. Markelson, who both omitted his story of seeing James after the gasoline incident, and also whose story is in direct conflict with Mr. Howsler and Ms. Nowak. While Mr. Markelson claims it was Mr. Howlser that had a revolver to play roulette, Mr. Howlser and Ms. Nowak both say it was Mr. Markelson.
Embedded in these lies and less than full accounts is a still missing $1.3 million. Something I believe Mr. Markelson is desperate to try and find, and for which was his original impulse to contact this reporter.
Now with an understanding of James Ferdini’s mindset leading up to his death, I am left with the unanswered question of what happened to Mr. Ferdini’s missing money.
I head back to where this story started, the Borgata where the gambling binge took fold. I seek an interview with Bill Hornbuckle, President of MGM resorts and a majority stakeholder in the Borgata Hotel and Casino. He agrees to speak with me and provides a full record on floor manger Richard Markelson.
I start the interview by asking if he’s aware if Richard Markelson owns a handgun, and in particular a revolver. In response, he says: “Our records indicate Mr. Markelson has a concealed carry license from the state of New Jersey for a Ruger LCR Six-Shot revolver. We have this in our records because Mr. Markelson is authorized to carry the weapon on the premises.”
Mr. Hornbuckle asks if I believe Mr. Markelson was involved in Mr. Ferdini’s death, to which I tell him I do not believe he is. I give the accounts of Mr. Markelson, Mr. Howlser, and Ms. Nowak, and while Mr. Hornbuckle is disturbed by the story, he agrees that Mr. Markelson has done nothing strictly illegal outside of drug use. He does add however: “The story with Russian roulette, if true, would certainly make us reconsider allowing Mr. Markelson to carry a weapon in the casino.”
Confirming that Mr. Markelson was the owner of the revolver has led me to believe Mr. Howlser and Ms. Nowak’s account over Markelson’s. It seems likely now that like Mr. Markelson did indeed play a dangerous game of Russian roulette with Mr. Ferdini, and that it was he who provided the gun to use.
Before I leave the Borgata, I ask Mr. Hornbuckle about another detail Mr. Markelson told me that I am no longer sure is true. I ask if a ‘cooler’ is something casinos really use, and if specifically Mr. Markelson is designated as one at the Borgata.
His response is to laugh at first, but he goes on to say: “Yes, a cooler is a real term. I actually believe in them myself. Luck is real. It’s a tangible thing that follows people around -- good luck and bad luck. I believe coolers have saved my casinos a lot of money over the years, and Mr. Markelson certainly fits that role at the Borgata. He's terribly unlucky, couldn't win a game of cards if his life depended on it. Still, he's invaluable at cutting the luck high rollers short."
He pauses before continuing: “There is of course the problem of the double negative, or when two coolers are together. It happens when a cooler is around someone who has luck just as bad as him or her. Like two positive or negative charges on a magnet, they repel each other, and the cooler’s effect instead of bad luck is one of incredible good luck. I’ve never seen it myself, but I’ve heard that even the most unlikely people on earth can have incredible runs of good luck if someone as equally unlucky as them is near.”
I propose the idea that maybe Mr. Ferdini was as unlucky as Mr. Markelson, and that together they achieved this ‘double negative,’ bringing them good luck while they were together.
“Yes,” Mr. Hornbuckle says. “I suppose that’s possible. It’s a very dangerous situation though for an unlucky person to suddenly be met with non-stop good luck. It could make you think yourself invincible, unable to be defeated in any challenge. You might even start to take on bets on things that aren’t real games of chance, like harming yourself by drinking boiling water. There’s also the danger of what happens when the double negative effect is over. One cooler parts ways, then each would fall into their own run of terrible luck, not realizing that their hot-streak has ended.”
As the interview concludes and I leave the Borgata, I think about the good luck Mr. Ferdini and Mr. Markelson had. I consider the incredible odds that both survived firing a loaded gun to their temples only for each to find a dud cartridge. I ponder the unfortunate series of events that would kill Mr. Ferdini after Mr. Markelson left his hotel room.
Lastly, I think about Mr. Markelson’s own luck since March 26th. Maybe it hasn’t been as bad as Mr. Ferdini's, but I know he contacted a reporter and as a result management at his casino will be looking into his behavior. I consider and think, that is not too lucky.

Porter

What was meant to be a short report about an unusual death in Atlantic City has grown into something longer. This is now a meandering investigation with unreliable characters, newly discovered details, and a still missing $1.3 million.
Before I leave New Jersey and return to New York, I go to the seedy hotel where Mr. Ferdini and his entourage consumed drugs and played Russian roulette, and where he would eventually die. It is my hope that I can speak to the porter -- the last person to ever see Mr. Ferdini alive.
At the hotel I speak to the manager and ask her who was the porter in the early morning hours of March 26th. The manager tells me that the porter no longer works for the hotel, and that in fact he had quit the very same day Mr. Ferdini died.
“After the police left, he flipped us all off,” the manager says. “That son of a bitch quit in style, telling us he didn’t need to work here no more. He said he was set and that we can kiss his ass goodbye.”
I ask the manager if they knew where the porter could have gone, to which she replies: “No idea. After he was done talking to the police about the death in the stairwell, I think he was out of New Jersey for good. He used to live nearby so I saw him when he left. He was fully packed. Had all of his stuff with him and three really full duffel bags I’d never seen before. He really didn’t seem like he was coming back -- had everything with him.”
Like the porter, I load my bags and finally prepare to leave New Jersey. As I do a thought pops into my mind: Could the porter that night have discovered Mr. Ferdini’s $1.3 million in three duffel bags in his room? I consider and think, maybe, and if he did, maybe this porter is the luckiest man in Atlantic City.
Myra Kindle is an independent investigative reporter. She covers tech, law, politics, and other stories that would be impossible to write about in more traditional outlets.
submitted by crazyguzz1 to nosleep [link] [comments]

Would you like me to complete this? (My first piece of content for /r/poker) 2014 Updated Guide to beating the micros.

I only ask as this I just the beginning and will obviously take a lot of time to complete (probably a few weeks as I'm leaving for 8 days tomorrow) and want to make sure it's going to be well received before putting in the time! Thanks!
Introduction
Hey guys, so it's been a couple months I've been here now, and I'm trying more than ever to get into as much poker discussion as possible (which is a new aspect of my game) and I'm loving it. However, today I'm going to try my hand at my first piece of content for /poker. I am fully aware this has been done once before (especially since I will be quoting a lot of his content to really make this a jam packed guide) but it has now been 5 years since 'Sircuddles' writeup on 2p2. What I would like to accomplish with this, is touch on many of the things he did, and add many more, to really aid our new players and players having trouble beating the micros. As mentioned, I will even use some of the content 'Sircuddles' wrote, highlighted in bold to give credit for his writing, although I hear he quit playing so he probably wouldn't care regardless. Hopefully that way it's easier to combine all of the information rather than me trying to re-write some of his concepts and call them my own, which isn't necessary. I will also add some links during specific topics to videos I believe these players will find extremely useful. But without further ado, let's get into how you can start becoming a winning player and climb through those micros! This will probably be long.... veryyyyy long.
TL;DR - If you're new to the game or not able to beat the micros, read it, if you're above 25NL, your choice if you want to read out of boredom, maybe refresh some things or pick up 1 or 2 new little things.
Definitions
Since this is aimed at including new players, we should go over some acronyms and definitions so you won't be lost during some of the discussion wondering what something simple like OOP means.
3bet - A bet (or blinds), a raise, then a reraise. This third action is a "3bet"
4bet - The fourth action, a raise of a 3bet.
AI - All In
AIPF - All in pre flop
ATC - Any two cards
AF - Aggression factor
Ax - Any ace with another card
bb - Big blind
BB - Big Bet
BB/100 - Big Bets won per 100 hands ( Standard measure of winrate)
b/c - Bet/call
b/f - Bet/fold
BR -Bankroll
BRM - Bankroll management
C-bet - Continuation bet after being the initial raiser
cc - Check/check
c/c Check/call
c/f - Check/fold
CK - Check
CO - Cutoff position, player to the right of the button
c/r - Check/raise
EP - Early position (under the gun, under the gun plus one)
EV (+/-) - Positive/negative expected value
FT - Final Table
HH - Hand history
HJ - Hijack position, player to the right of the cutoff
HU - Headsup
HUD - Heads up display
ICM - Independent chip model
LAG - Loose Aggressive player
LP - Late position
MTT - Multi-table tournament
OESD - Open-ended straight draw
OOP - Out of position
PF - Preflop
PFR - Preflop raise(r)
PSB - Pot sized bet
PSR - Pot sized raise
xxxr - Flop is rainbow (3 different suits)
ROI - Return on investment
SC - Suited connector
SH - Shorthanded
SNG - SitnGo tournament
SS - Short stack
STT - Single table tournament
TAG - Tight aggressive player
TPTK - Top pair top kicker
TPGK - Top pair good kicker
UTG - Under the gun (First position to the left of the big blind)
UTG + 1 - The player left of UTG
VB - Value bet
VPIP - %Voluntarily put ($) in pot
Before you sit at the table
There are many factors to consider, or tools you should acquire before even sitting down at a table to play. Let's go over some of them and see if you have these tools or use these tricks to aid in your game.
1) The first and most obvious, a HUD. If you don't have a HUD, on a site that allows them, plain and simple you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. Even if you only 1 table and take excellent notes, it's still worth having, nobody wants to single table forever!
HUD's generally cost around $100 and they will pay for themselves over and over after you become comfortable with using it. Not to mention it tracks all of your play for you, goodbye Microsoft excel spreadsheet! Of the HUD's available, it's fairly common knowledge that Holdem Manager 2, and Pokertracker 4 are the cream of the crop. Both of which have free trials so you can test the waters with both and make a better informed decision (personally I use HM2). If $100 is too expensive for you, there are ways of acquiring them for cheaper, but it takes more effort also, something you can look into on their sites. Rather than me personally explaining to you how you should use your HUD or set it up at all (which I can't anyways, as you grow you'll learn what stats you want and don't) I will simply link an excellent video that should really help the players new to the HUD world get started. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MLFfC9TCiA
If your main focus is going to be on cash games, I also recommend watching the rest of his videos. He even goes as far as reading the comments on his videos, answering questions and taking suggestions for future videos.
2) Understanding player types is something you should be well versed in, as once you know how they play, you can learn how to exploit each type.
Multi-tabling nit (~3-10/2-8) - This type of player is very easy to run over. Be careful playing back at them though, because usually when they’re in a pot they have a very good hand. If one of these guys calls your pre flop raise, you bet the flop and he sticks around or raises then you’re probably beat even if you have TPTK. Most of the times they’ll show up with a set in these situations. Most of these players won’t be interested in you, they’re after the fish. However if they do start betting into you, be very careful.
Passive Fish (~30+/10) – This is what is commonly known as a calling station. They don’t like to raise (as evident by their low pre flop raise stat) and don’t like to bet. They’d rather just play nice friendly poker and call your bets. Do not bluff a calling station. They will call you down with any piece of the board. These are the best players to play with because it’s very easy to extract value from them.
Aggro Fish (~30+/30+) – These players are worse to play with than calling stations, but still very profitable. They’ll make a lot of donk bets, bet any untouched pot and are generally very loose and aggro. The way to counter these players is to get a premium hand (TPTK+) and let them bluff their money away. Unless they bet very small it’s usually best to just call, because most of the time they’ll try to keep pushing you off of your hand. Calling the flop and raising the turn is often a good play against these types of players (provided you have a hand), because a large part of the time they’ll convince themselves you’re stealing, and they certainly won’t stand for any of that.
Regular (~12-18/~10-16) – These are the dangerous players. These are pretty standard stats for someone from 2p2. They’re likely positionally aware and playing much like you are. If a regular is aware that you are a regular you can try making moves on them, but don’t do it often. Once you start building on your game these are the people you’ll want to test your moves on because they are (usually) thinking players. Keep in mind this only applies if they know you as a solid player. If you’re unknown to them or they think you’re a fish then they’ll play against you as such. The regulars described here are generally in the TAG category, and while they are dangerous, there is also one more dangerous opponent we should mention.
LAG/reg (~24-40/~14-30) - These players are even more dangerous than a good TAG player, as they can generally have the range of an Aggro fish, but are far superior with post flop play. If you yourself are not great at post flop play, and play on a site with many tables open at a time (ie Pokerstars), it's probably best to avoid this type of player until you become a winning reg yourself and understand how they play. They wil call raises, bet often to the point of what seems like they are a maniac, but when you get the nuts and think "Bammm, here's my chance to stack this asshole that's been running the table over", they will get away from the hand cheaply, leaving you confused and pissed off how he "knew" you had it.
Short Stackers (20BB - 50BB stacks) – These come in many varieties, most of which you can learn about here. Most shorties are horrible. Because of this and the fact that their stack is small you’ll often find yourself flipping with them. If you’re playing 25NL and someone has a $7 stack and shoves over your pre flop raise and everyone else has folded, you can feel pretty comfortable getting it all in with a hand like TT. The reason for this is that most of the time they’ll be a coin flip at best. Shorties will frequently stack off pre flop with hands like KQ, AJ, 77 and even worse. It’s for this reason that you’ll generally stack off pretty lightly against them. Keep in mind this is all general information, if you find a shortie that is tight and he shoves pre flop, don’t go in there without a quality hand. Most shorties don’t fit that definition though.
Unknowns – If you don’t know a player and have no stats on them or reads on how they play, always give them the benefit of the doubt. It’s true there are tons of donks and fish at the micro limits, but there are even more regulars and nits. It is a mistake to treat all unknowns like fish simply due to the fact that the nits and regulars outnumber the fish at the micros. Once you have 50-100 hands on someone or see them do something you’ll have a better idea of how they play. If a total unknown raises your flop bet and you have air, fold. If a total unknown raises your flop bet and you have TPTK, call. If he bets the turn, it’s probably best to just fold until you have more information. Fighting unknowns is a marginal situation, stay away from it.
General tips for 25NL and below:
•If a passive opponent starts raising or betting strong, you should probably fold without a set or better. •Don’t bluff any fish. •Don’t play back at any fish. •Always keep in mind who you are playing against. •Fold more. A common mistake at the micros is to call too much, just fold. ‘Oh but that flop doesn’t his his range, blah blah blah’ – NO! Just fold. •They aren’t playing back at you. If someone at the micros raises you, they usually have what they represent. If you think a fish is trying to steal from you and you don’t have anything to fight back with, just fold. Let him take the pot, you can stack him later. You will get bluffed at poker and people will steal pots from you, get used to it. •Seriously, fold more.
Originally posted by Zeth on 2P2, here is an in-depth look into the three types of fish, and how each of them can be beaten, by using one of the other fish types, which is often why winning at the micros takes using an exploitable style, the difference is your using the proper one vs. the proper opponent!
The Loose Passive (a.k.a. Calling Station) Main Weakness: Calls too much. Typical Stats: 21/3, 19/0, 31/4, 60/5. Look for a low (less than 1) AF and a low fold to cbet. For extra profits, check fold to turn cbet over larger samples if you can, and Went to Showdown %. You can usually identify a loose-passive within 50 hands; they just don't bet or raise very much. Beat them by: Playing Weak-tight, except thinner. What I mean is, top paitop kicker is pretty much the nuts until the station tells you otherwise, and you can and should go for three streets of value against a station with TP/TK (or better, obviously.) Here's where the weak-tight comes in: If a loose passive bets at you or raises you, fold (unless you're holding the nuts/near-nuts, of course.)
This is probably the most common kind of fish. His primary weakness is calling too much; exploit it by ruthlessly betting for value.
The Aggrodonk Main Weakness: Bets/raises too much. Typical Stats: 31/25, 40/30, 55/30, 70/45. Look for a very high AF, usually a low fold to cbet, damn near 100% cbet%, particularly a lot of flop aggression. Also, every now and then you'll see a player that's more loose-passive preflop (35/7 and stuff) but turns into an aggrodonk postflop. Usually you can identify an aggrodonk within 20-30 hands without the help of a HUD. They dominate tables and are very conspicuous. Beat them by: Becoming a calling station! This is a very typical mistake I see uNL'ers make, because good poker is aggressive poker and we're just wired and conditioned to loathe the 'Call' button. But you should almost never bet at or raise an aggrodonk before the river. His weakness is that he bets too much; exploit it by calling down light. If you hit top paigood kicker, you should check and call every street. Better than that, tend to check/call the flop and turn and then check/raise the river. Be very suspicious when an aggrodonk checks; they tend to be opposite players and when they check, a lot of the time they're (poorly) hiding a monster.
The Weaktight (a.k.a. fit-or-fold) Main Weakness: Folds too much. Typical Stats: Preflop they can range from super nitty (8/2, 7/6) to loose passive (32/5, 44/3). Postflop, their fold to cbet is very high, their fold to turn cbet is often high as well, and their Went to Showdown is usually low (and their W$SD is usually high, because they rarely reach showdown without the nuts.) Beat them by: Being an aggrodonk. You should iso-raise these guys in position at every reasonable opportunity, almost regardless of your cards (bonus points if the blinds are tight). You cards hardly matter, because as far as the weaktight is concerned you're always holding top paitop kicker. He'll tend not to continue unless he can beat TP/TK. If they flop second pair or a good draw they may call your cbet, and then fold to a second barrel on the turn.
3) Labelling and note taking (on non-anonymous sites of course) is also another FREE skill/tool that is extremely useful in helping you make quicker, more informed decisions....
submitted by MrMogz to poker [link] [comments]

Bets and Bravery: Chapters 949 and 950 Results!

What do you mean I'm a week late with the results thread for Chapter 949 and that as a result, no one will read the thread because everyone's already moved on to Chapter 950? I have faith in my B&B audience, so they will get the B&B Results thread they deserve!
Oh shit, I misplaced this week's results thread's meme

Links

Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls, and everybody in between, welcome back to...

Bets and Bravery!

Another exciting week of betting and one without, mb has come and gone, and I'm glad to share some results with you all today! We have a lot to sift through today since we have two chapters to analyze, so, without further ado, let's get right into the results!

Chapter 949 Results

Chapter 949 Summary

So, let's talk about that chapter.
Fighting off the gifter prison guards, Luffy, Chopper, Hyougoro, and the Scabbards managed to hold off the enemy forces. Raizo managed to pass off Kid and Killer's keys to them while they watched the battle in silence. Daifugo unleashed one of Queen's inventions, an excitement bullet that infects those hit with the Mummy Virus which can be further spread by touch. With the prisoners infected and facing down the might of just an invention of one of Kaido's troops, they decided that standing with the Kozuki was a fruitless endeavor. Despite this, Luffy bear-hugged the infected prisoners, saying that the "overwhelming power" belonging to Kaido's forces they spoke of has no effect on him. Luffy brought to light that even if they hadn't come to help, the "normal" life the prisoners lived was nothing more than slavery and that, even though he is an outsider to Wano, he made a promise to Tama that he would make sure nobody ever had to worry about food in Wano again which he'll accomplish by defeating Kaido. With the prisoners finally starting to waver in their convictions, Old Maid prepared to launch an excitement shell into the crowd to infect everyone but was stopped by Luffy who prevented a dangerous future he saw. With his defeat of the warden, the prisoners finally decided to rebel, leading to the conquest of Udon unknown to everyone else in Wano.
If you didn't get chills from reading Luffy's declaration in this chapter you're perfectly entitled to your feelings and I won't judge you for them you are a heartless buffoon. Luffy has shown in these past few arcs just why he is the captain, and I can't wait to see more.
So, with the summary over with, let's all get right into the...

Chapter 949 Payouts

Bet 336

Will the Udon Prisoners be inspired to join the cause of overthrowing Kaido and Orochi?
With Luffy's display and inspirational speech in Chapter 949, it's no surprise that the prisoners would warm up to the idea of fighting for their freedom and backing a powerful captain. As we saw in the final pages of the chapter, even in the face of the Mummy Virus, the prisoners chose to rebel and conquer the Udon Prison. Outcome B for Bet 336 is correct!

Bet 338

How many pages will there be in Chapter 949?
Dear audience, I counted the pages, and for the ninth edition in a row we came to a grand total of 17 pages we came to a grand total of a whopping 19 pages! Outcome C for Bet 338 is correct!

Bet 339

What will be the main focus of Chapter 949?
Dear audience, I counted the pages and came to a conclusion.
Of the 19 pages this week, 2 were devoted to a color spread, and 17 were devoted to this week's most-focused on storyline: Luffy's adventure in the Udon Mines! Outcome A for Bet 339 is correct!

Unresolved Bets

Bet 335

Has Caribou abandoned the Strawhat Alliance and fled Udon?
Just as he has been these past few chapters, the super rookie Caribou has been MIA from the storyline, meaning we don't know just where he stands. Although he seemed to be warming up to Luffy and Raizo, Caribou is also a self-preserving individual, so we can't be sure one way or the other if he's abandoned the Strawhats or not. Bet 335 is unresolved!

Bet 337

Will the return of Oden's Scabbards be brought to Kaido and/or Orochi's attention?
While countless gifters and prison guards working for Kaido and/or Orochi were present to see some of the Nine Red Scabbards reveal their identities to the Udon Prisoners, at the same time they haven't been able to do much as of now. It seems as though things are being kept under wraps in Udon for the moment, but I'll let this bet sit just a little longer to be sure that a single guard didn't escape in the chaos. Bet 337 is unresolved!

Weekly Mini-Game

This week's mini-game was centered around Oden's Nine Red Scabbards, with your task being to guess in how many panels one or multiple members of the Scabbards would physically appear.
Dear audience, I counted them up, and we came to a grand total of a whopping 20 panels! Unfortunately, no one guessed 100% correctly, but we did have one lucky contestant who guessed closer than anyone else this week, u/onnsn with a guess of 21! With his guess, he lays claim to a whopping 750,000 Beli prize this week!

End of Chapter 949 Payouts

And with that, we've come to the end of the payouts for this week. However, we're not done with the results thread just yet, we've got more in store for you all!
While we didn't have an edition for B&B for Chapter 950, that doesn't mean payouts are out of question. In fact, we've got lots of frozen bets to resolve after both Chapters 949 and 950, so we'll detail that in our next section of the thread.

Chapter 950 Results

Chapter 950 Summary

So, let's talk about that chapter.
Freed from their seastone handcuffs, Kid and Killer declined Luffy's invitation to join his fight against Kaido after resolving to never make alliances again after being abandoned by Hawkins and Apoo. Kid and Killer then left Udon with the goal of retrieving the rest of their crew, resolving to walk their own path. Meanwhile, the Udon prisoners were having a hard time believing that some of the Scabbards had time traveled 20 years from the past, believing that Raizo was fibbing to try and seem younger. Chopper frantically worked on a cure for Queen's mummy virus as, although he had received some poison immunity from his fight with Magellan, Luffy had been greatly ravaged by the virus. Momo and Luffy got into a quick argument as Luffy pushed the young heir out into view of the prisoners who immediately bowed before him, the son of the great ruler Oden, finally having a dream to rally behind. Kawamatsu parted ways with the Udon crowd stating he was needed elsewhere though he promised to return by the promised date. In Kuri, Ashura Douji revealed that 10 years ago many of the samurai who were waiting for the Scabbards' return grew impatient and instead went off to their deaths to try and defeat Kaido. With that weight, Ashura questioned the 20-year wait which Inuarashi and Kin'emon stated there must have been a reason for the delay. Finally resolving to fight for the Kozuki yet again, Ashura rallied his troops after being inspired by Yasuie's parting words. We then visit a forest outside the Flower Capital where Zoro and Hiyori decided to hide after the chaos with Hiyori promising to take Zoro back to Oihagi Bridge to retrieve Shusui from Gyukimaru. At last we return to the Flower Capital where Drake and Hawkins have captured a very valuable prisoner with the intent of extracting the Alliance's plans in Wano, how will Law manage to get out of this one?
Why did Law not run away? Where did Kid's crew go? Is Luffy really sorry for infecting himself with the mummy virus to inspire the prisoners? This chapter brought up some interesting questions, but it also provided many answers, let's discuss.

Newly Resolved Bets

Bet 196 from the Chapter 918 Edition

Will Holdem appear later this arc?
Stemming from right after this headliner's introduction and kidnapping of Tama in Bakura Town, we asked if this quickly defeated enemy would reappear later in the arc. While this was answered like 9 chapters ago, I decided now would be a great time to resolve this bet it's not that I forgot this bet existed, no siree
After Kin'emon and Inuarashi framed Ashura Douji for attacking one of Orochi's farms, Holdem retaliated by burning down the samurai's hideout, meaning he did appear later in the arc. Outcome B for Bet 196 is correct!

Bet 235 from the Chapter 926 Edition

Who will recruit Ashura Douji to the Kaido Assassination Team?
While in Chapter 950 he did resolve to join the team of his own accord, more than anything else Ashura was swayed by the parting words of Shimotsuki Yasuie, Daimyo of Hakumai. With those parting words, Ashura decided to put behind him those 20 years of waiting and finally make up with Kin'emon, leading to his joining the team. Outcomes D and F for Bet 235 are correct!

Bet 261 from the Chapter 932 Edition

How serious is Big Mom's memory loss?
Following the Grade-A asspull unexpected twist of Big Mom getting amnesia after washing up in Wano, we questioned just how long this new mental state of the Yonkou would last. As it turns out, in only a little over 10 chapters, Big Mom's memory was returned after a good ol' fashioned whack to the head by Queen, meaning this was only a mild case of amnesia for the Yonkou. Outcome A for Bet 261 is correct!

Bet 295 from the Chapter 939 Edition

Will a rescue operation be launched for the Heart Pirates?
Law just kind of went for it. It didn't work. Outcome A for Bet 295 is correct!

Bet 301 from the Chapter 941 Edition

Will Law be able to rescue the Heart Pirates?
No. He also screwed up so bad he got captured. Outcome C for Bet 301 is correct!

Bet 305 from the Chapter 942 Edition

Will Ashura Douji hunt down Holdem for burning down his hideout?
Although Ashura did head into Bakura Town with the intent of fighting the headliner, he was instead captivated by the broadcast of Yasuie's execution and then met with Kin'emon and Inuarashi before he could get his revenge, though that revenge was trivial at that point. After meeting with Kin'emon and Inuarashi, Ashura then left Bakura Town with the two and took them to the graveyard, meaning Ashura did not hunt down Holdem. Outcome D for Bet 305 is correct!

Bet 325 from the Chapter 946 Edition

Will the Strawhat Alliance manage to escape from the Flower Capital?
Although it appears all the Strawhats and Scabbards present at the scene managed to escape safely, one member of the Alliance was captured before he could flee the scene: Law. Whether he was captured intentionally or not, we don't know, but Hawkins and Drake managed to cuff the supernova and get him in custody. Outcome B for Bet 325 is correct!

Bet 326 from the Chapter 946 Edition

What did Ashura Douji plan on showing Kin'emon and Inuarashi?
With the events of Chapter 950, we discover that Ashura was planning on showing Kin'emon and Inuarashi the graves of the fallen samurai who could no longer wait for the Scabbards return to fight Kaido. In those 20 long years of waiting, many samurai became impatient and decided they'd rather die trying than live under Kaido's rule without any guarantee of liberation. Outcome E for Bet 326 is correct!

Bet 331 from the Chapter 948 Edition

Will Momo and Tama manage to reunite with the Strawhats in Udon after being separated in the chaos of Queen vs Big Mom?
If you remember, Kiku and Chopper requested the two defenseless members of their party wait outside Udon in the event that things get to chaotic inside, which did happen. After Queen and Big Mom had their duel and the two left en route to Onigashima, Momo tagged along with Tama who decided to head into the prison to reconvene with their party. As we saw in Chapter 949, they both had arrived safely inside and by Chapter 950, the two had reunited with Luffy and Chopper safely.
Outcome A for Bet 331 is correct!
Holy moly, that was a lot of Newly Resolved Bets to cover, but we got through it all. Let's continue.

What does an Unresolved Bet entail, and what is "Frozen Beli?"

If you're new to Bets and Bravery, the terms "unresolved bet" and "frozen bet" might not mean anything to you. However, this small section will attempt to address your questions on those terms!
Often times, one week's bet will not be immediately addressed in that week's chapter. In these cases, the bet is deemed "unresolved." What this means is that any beli used to bet on any outcome for an unresolved bet is "frozen," and is locked in place on the outcome it was initially used on. Once Beli is frozen, you will no longer have access to that beli to bet with. However, a bet may see a resolution in a later chapter, in which case the previously frozen beli will be reevaluated and will either be lost for good if you missed the bet or will earn you money if you hit!
If all your beli ends up frozen, you may not have any left to use on other bets, so spend wisely! However, that's where the weekly participation bonus of 10,000 beli comes in, so that even if you lost all your money to bad bets or everything is frozen, you can still play along! Hope that answered your questions, but always remember my inbox is always open if you have anything else you'd like to ask!

End of Chapter 950 Payouts

And with that, we've come to the end of the payouts for this week. However, we're not done with the results thread just yet, we've got more in store for you all!

Highlights of the Week

Welcome back to the highlights of the week, where I compile each week's bets and payouts into 7 categories, "Most Spent on Bets," "Most Earned," "Highest Net Profit," "WMG Winner," "Most Frozen Beli," "Most Won from Newly Resolved Bets," and "Biggest Loser." Look for yourself on the highlights this week, and if you ended up as the biggest loser this week, better luck next time!
To see if you made the Highlight Reel this week, make sure you check out the W71-C949 Highlights!

Host's Corner

Yeah, this results thread is out a little late, most certainly not a big problem though haha My excuse this time is that I was at college orientation and just didn't have enough time or energy to work on the results thread on top of a thread for Chapter 950, so I did neither! Oh god, it's the beginning of the B&B end As I've been saying recently, this is a weird transition period, so I'll still try my best at keeping up with B&B, so I'd like to thank you all for sticking with me.
On another note, my color spread is almost done in black and white and coloring will begin for that soon. So, uh, keep an eye out for that as well! I can't really spoil or tease a single image as much as I could hype a larger project, so just imagine you're hyped for this!
That's about all I have to say personally this week, so thanks for listening!

Thanks for Participating!

With all that out of the way, we've survived another exciting week of Betting and Bravery! I hope you all enjoyed this edition's bets, as I enjoyed making them for you!
As always, I'm ever so grateful that you decided to stop by and check out my thread; whether you're new to the show or a hardcore veteran, I'm glad to see you all! So, I'm looking forward to seeing each and every one of you back here soon for the next edition! Until next time!
-MADKITTIEZ
submitted by MADKITTIEZ to OnePiece [link] [comments]

Guys' trip to Shreveport + Horseshoe 1/3 NLH weekend review

I went to Shreveport this weekend for a guys' trip. This is my experience. This will be long and a lot will be common knowledge to live grinders. Believe it or not, I did cut out A LOT of unnecessary info..
I just want to start by saying the 1/3 game at The Horseshoe was AMAZING compared to the 1/2 games I've played 8+ years ago at Chocktaw/Winstar. I really hate low stakes NLH because of the 6-10x standard open and capped buyin, which basically turns the post flop game into a short stacked 2/5 game. 1/3 at The Horseshoe allows you to buy in and match the biggest stack. All of a sudden those $20 opens aren't so crushing. I've heard there is a 1/3 at Winstar. If you play there, please let me know if they have the same buyin setup.
First night, I get there, they just opened a new table, and I was able to sit down with people who also just arrived. I asked about the straddle situation. I do enjoy the button straddle element to the game, but rarely use it. They said if the table agrees, we can do a straddle/button straddle. We agreed. They put a small sign next to the dealer that indicates straddles are allowed. For those who don't know, a button straddle is where the button can double the big blind and take over as last to act pre. Once a button straddle is on, the small blind is now UTG and first to act. This table ended up being the best table I've played with probably ever. Most were drinking. There was a decent amount of action. Table talk was fun. I was immediately surprised how comfortable these players were that sat down. They all seemed to play very regularly and seemed like they would be good. Spoiler, they weren't. The players were limp/calling pre and very passive post for the most part. I get the feeling most would describe their game as TAG or LAG, but nearly all were completely Loose-Passive and Holdem Manager would label over half the table as fish. In online terms, I'd say this was a 45VPIP/10PFR table, which for my nitty game usually means cha-ching! I was right. By the end of it, I was in for $400 at 7:45pm and out at 11:30pm for $918. The free drinks were great and I got a bit drunky, which is mostly why I got up. I'm usually the worst drunk poker player ever, but managed to stick with the strategy this time. I didn't play a flashy game. I was nervous and had shaky hands for the first hour. I just played super tight, fold or raise pre(only limping blinds and rarely), big squeezes with premiums, and take it down on the flop or turn. I would have liked to have made smaller value bets to keep players in, but I was pretty determined to post a win and was quick to take them down. That way I can talk my wife into letting me play live more. I haven't played live at a casino in 2 and a half years and that makes me sad. Profit: $518 over 3.75 hours Stack: https://i.imgur.com/c2341xO.jpg My stack next to my buddy's absurd stack. He's a genuine LAG and much better than I am. https://i.imgur.com/6TDlVCh.jpg You can also see the button straddle sign in red next to the dealer
It was a guys' trip and we don't all play poker, so I didn't want to spend all my time at the table. I continued the drinky, including celebratory shots, and went to bed at 1am. Sadly, the dad in me woke up at 7am anyway. Two of my friends wake up at 8:30 despite staying up til 5am. We all get ready and watch Tiger play at the hotel until the only place we could find that has TV opens up, Hooters.
At 12:30, I'm back at the table. I'm pretty sure most of the players came from a dwindled 2/5 game because I look around and see some mega stacks from multiple OMCs. At least 3 have black chips($100) and I see a lot of green chips($25) out there. I think the big stack had about $2.5k. This table was a lot tighter preflop overall. I'd say this was about a 30VPIP/15PFR table. I play my same game waiting for cards. I end up about $150 up after an hour. I picked up queens and had a good flop. Took down $100. I did the same with an AK hand. Then I ran into a couple of OMCs that were not havin' it. I squeezed to $22 in position with AQo. OMC pops it to $225 after having limped originally. I let it go. Another hand, the King OMCs raises to $10. I raise to $25 with AJs. King OMC calls and the flop is AT3 with a flush draw possibility. I have top pair and no flush draw. Yay! I lead out for $25, which now I think I'd rather have checked. OMC pops it to $65. I think this is an easy call and see what happens, but this man has made zero plays so far. I mean, he has just sat there and I'm at times genuinely concerned he might be dead. Not this time. He woke up and I just folded. I had a weird feeling and let it go. Not long after that hand, and I shit you not, another OMC walks up to his king and at some point I hear the words "I wish they could hook this straight up to my veins." King OMC laughs in approval. I am not making this up. About this time, I'm ready to leave. I was super hung over, my hands were shaking even when I wasn't in a hand, and I had one of those back of the eyeball headaches. And let's face it, this table is not a great one for my game. In for $600 at 12:30 and out for $634 at 2:30. Profit: $34 over 2 hours (Did not take picture of my $34 profit stack)
I go back to my shithole room at Diamond Jacks and take a nap while my buddies hit up the pool. When I say shithole, I mean the tv is an old tube that cuts off the far right and left of every channel. Nice Jacuzzi tub, though. I can't complain too much. The room was only $250 for Friday and Saturday nights, which means I only paid $125 since we split the room. The TV: https://i.imgur.com/IeDtjtD.jpg https://i.imgur.com/EYaNrXJ.jpg Not bad Jacuzzi tub: https://i.imgur.com/5hKcyv5.jpg
After the nap, we eat and I'm back at the tables at 7:30. I'm super groggy this time. The table is great for action, but full of shady individuals who don't talk. I watched one guy pick up his big blind after the dealer forgot to scoop it in the pot. A few of us noticed, but didn't say anything. I later found out the guy he screwed out of $3 was his own brother. I have a few good hands. I had queens again that won me $40 preflop when I squeezed to $80. I picked up another $60 when I get AsJs and 5 $12 callers. I flopped two spades and bet $35 to take it down. Headache is gone, so that's a plus. Good news. After almost 2 hours, I'm up nearly $200. I decide to go ahead and pack it up. The trip has paid for itself, I'm too exhausted to concentrate, and time to get drunk one last night before it's back to reality. In for $400 at 7:30, out for $598 at 9:15. Profit: $198 over 1.75 hrs Stack: https://i.imgur.com/VwBOWbJ.jpg Again, my buddy's stack on the last night. He ended up winning all 3 sessions with over $2k profit for the weekend: https://i.imgur.com/hAoSVYP.jpg
Total of $748 over 7.5 hours ~$100/hr Yay!
TL;DR Went to Shreveport for a guys' trip. Had a great time. Found the 1/3 game is big and players are generally passive. Won some money and my friend won a lot more. I highly recommend it for those internet grinders who want to leave their basements every once in a while and try out live poker.
submitted by pipinngreppin to poker [link] [comments]

Check-Calling 101

Full-disclosure: I copy pasted a lot of these examples from a check-calling COTW post on 2+2, but edited it to add more HH examples and math. Anything in italics was originally written by NJD77 from 2+2.
These posts are not meant to be encyclopedic, so let me know if you disagree with anything and why. Revisiting fundamental concepts is allowing me to reflect and reevaluate my own game, so I may continue to do similar posts where I elaborate on 2+2 COTWs. I’m not really sure what the target demographic is for these posts, so let me know if I need to do more or less explaining. The second half of this post explains concepts explained in the Matthew Janda Cardrunner’s video “You’re doing it wrong – part 1”. He explains it better than me, so I recommend you pick up a CR subscription if you haven’t already.
Check-calling is a very tricky line at the micros for a number of reasons:
Part 1 - Fundamental Check-Calling Spots
1. When a Villain offers us direct odds to draw to a hand that beats his range. Sometimes villains will just make horrible bet sizing errors when they are holding a clear strong value hand. If we can't check-raise because we don't think he will ever fold, and we're behind his range but have equity to make a check-call versus his bet size, then we should do it.
This doesn’t occur that often, but if we know villain has a top-pair hand he won’t fold, we can call a 15% pot bet with hands like an OESD just based on direct odds. This rarely happens, hence the amount of effort I put into this example.
2. When a villain offers us implied odds to draw to a hand that beats his range. Preferably we will have both direct and implied odds, but often we will find we only have implied odds. In my opinion, this occurs more often than example 1.
100bb effective stacks. A super tight villain raises to 3x from UTG. MP calls, the CO calls, and the SB calls. You call with 67s in the BB. The flop is 258r. You check, and the UTG raiser bets ~60% pot. It folds around to you. First let’s look at the UTG raiser’s range:
A tight player raised from UTG. He then cbets into 4 people. If you can’t tell already, I engineered this example to give him a super strong range. I think it would be reasonable to say his range is usually just {JJ, QQ, KK, AA}. Therefore, let’s evaluate our options when facing this cbet:
Raise – I think this is the worst option. You are stacking off 99% of the time when you raise, which is a pretty bad-news-Bernstein-bears situation when you have 8 outs. I shouldn’t need to do any math to prove that stacking off against an overpair with 7 high and an OESD is not a +EV play.
Fold – Probably the second best option. You have the worst hand, but obviously the downside to folding is that you are punting the equity you undoubtedly have.
Call – If you didn’t figure it out already from the title of this post, calling is the best option here. You aren’t getting direct odds to call, but we are getting pretty dank implied odds. Let’s do some math:
This tight villain is not folding his hand on a 9 or a 4. If we bink the turn, we are stacking him by the river. We know the following:
(1) After the preflop action, the pot size is 13.5BB.
(2) Villain cbets for 7.5bb.
(3) Villain has ~90bb left after this cbet.
(4) There are 46 possible turn cards, and 8 of them give you a straight.
Therefore, we can calculate the EV of calling:
On 8 turns, we win ~120bb (the pot, our call, and villain’s stack). On 38 turns, we win 0bb and will probably check/fold if villain bets huge and doesn’t give us the direct or implied odds to call again.
EV of Calling = ($ won when we bink) + ($ won when we miss) – (Price of the call)
EV of Calling = (Our call + pot size + villains remaining stack)(% we bink) + (0) – (Our call)
EV of Calling = (7.5BB +21bb + 90bb)(8/46) + (0)(38/46) – (7.5bb)
EV of Calling = ~13bb
We can also use this formula to calculate the break-even point. How much would villain have to cbet with his overpair for calling to be –EV?
EV of Calling = ($ won when we bink) + ($ won when we miss) – (Price of the call)
0 = (X+21bb + 90bb)(8/46) + (0)(38/46) – (X)
X = 23.4
This calculation shows how powerful implied odds can be. Even if villain would have cbet for 23.3BB (into a pot of 13.5bb), we can still call with only 8 outs. However, this entire example relies heavily on the fact that we are stacking this villain every single time we make our straight. Do not overvalue your implied odds and start chasing draws against wide ranges, as this is a quick way to lose money. Furthermore, in this example we could actually calculate our implied odds because we know that villain only has one type of hand in his range and we know exactly what he is doing with it. Usually, implied odds are impossible to actually calculate mathematically so they rely on estimation and assumptions.
3. When boards are dry and we are in a WA/WB spot, villain is not a double barreller, and does stab at pots when checked to. Often we get no value when we are ahead and value town ourselves when behind if we bet a flop. We can therefore opt for a check-call, but only if we're sure our villain isn't the type to bet/bet/bet if he reads our action as weak.
The button raises and we flat AT in the BB. The flop is the legendary A72r. Let’s review our options:
Donk - This would be pretty bad because most villains are cbetting this board with their entire range. If villain is cbetting hands like 55 or KQ, then this is very good for us and we shouldn’t give him the chance to fold them.
Check-Raise - On such a dry board, check-raising will probably confuse our villain. He may fold hands like A9 that would have given us another street of value. By check-raising, we prevent him from double-barreling with KQ in an attempt to get us to fold a hand like 99. Therefore, this option is pretty bad.
Check-fold - We have top pair. Our pair can’t get any topper. It’s pretty clear why this is bad.
Check-call - Surprise surprise, once again this is the best option. We allow our opponent to value-own himself with worse Ax and we get maximum value from our hand.
4. When we are multiway - implied odds always rise when we are multiway. The important thing to note here is our relative position, and we don't want to be check-calling if we're a long way from closing the action. The closer we are to closing the action, the more inclined we should be to check-call. I stole the following example from the COTW post because it works pretty well:
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker SoftwareSuite. View Hand #10108022
Hero (SB): $25 (100 bb) BB: $30.35 (121.4 bb) MP1: $34.27 (137.1 bb) MP2: $23.95 (95.8 bb) MP3: $34.28 (137.1 bb) CO: $30.84 (123.4 bb) BTN: $26.76 (107 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9s Ts MP1 raises to $1, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $1, CO calls $1, BTN calls $1, Hero calls $0.90, BB folds
Flop: ($5.25) 5d Jh 8s (5 players) Hero checks, MP1 bets $4.25, MP3 folds, CO calls $4.25, BTN folds, Hero calls $4.25
Turn: ($18) Qd (3 players) Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO checks
River: ($18) Jc (3 players) Hero bets $19.75 and is all-in, MP1 folds, CO calls $19.75
Results: $57.50 pot ($2 rake) Final Board: 5d Jh 8s Qd Jc Hero showed 9s Ts and won $55.50 ($30.50 net) MP1 mucked and lost (-$5.25 net) CO showed Ac Jd and lost (-$25 net)
In this scenario, we’re getting really good direct odds AND implied odds. Think about what happens when one of the villains has QJ and hits 2-pair on the turn. The MP player bets 80% pot into 4 players, so he usually has a strong value hand and this increases our implied odds.
Bad Situations to Check-Call (NJD77)
Part 2 - Advanced Check-Calling Spots
If you’re a beginning uNL player, then it might be good to skip the following section and come back to it when you feel more comfortable with fundamental concepts like equity. The following examples are similar to examples from a Matthew Janda video that was directed towards SSNL players. I’m going to try to paraphrase his examples
Let’s evaluate a 9h 6d 4d board in which we opened the SB and the BB calls.
Which hands make good bets? Value hands that retain equity well and bluffs.
Value bet hands: JJ, 98, K6, etc.
Bluffs: T8s, Kd8h, Ah5h. These hands all have robust equity in the form of draws or multiple backdoors.
But what do you do with AK/AQ in this spot? These are hands that most players cbet on this board every single time. And this isn’t a huge mistake, as cbetting these hands is undoubtedly +EV. However, check-calling can be MORE +EV.
When our villain calls in the BB, he can have a very wide range of hands. Therefore, by cbetting with AK on a 9h 6d 4d board, we get our opponents to fold hands like K7. Very few hands like this that we beat are calling our cbet, and this is especially important OOP. So what happens when we check-call?
Some uNL villains will just auto-bet with KJ when checked to because they assume you’re giving up. We have these hands absolutely crushed. KJ has 3 outs (jacks) and 2 tainted outs (kings). If our opponent bets the flop he is checking back a lot of turns, allowing us to realize our showdown value. If we check-call and the turn is an A or K, then we can win a big pot against villain’s A7/KJ-type hands. In this scenario, you’re getting 3 streets of value from a hand that might have folded the flop had you cbet. Or, some of the time, villain may bet the flop with QJ and decide to barrel on an A or K.
Potential Issues: If we only check/call as the preflop raiser in these spots with hands like AK/AQ, then we can be exploited pretty easily. Against a player who won’t notice this and adjust, we don’t need to worry about balance. Against a thinking player, we can balance our range by sometimes check-calling with strong hands. I’m a fish when it comes to balance though so input here might be needed.
Similar example:
We open the CO with AcKh, BU calls. Flop is 8c 5c 3d. We should check-call. We keep dominated hands in villain’s range and give ourselves a better chance of realizing our showdown value. We don’t want to have to fold to a raise. We can bink a runner runner club sometimes.
To summarize, here are good reasons to check/call as the preflop raiser:
If you got this far, thanks for reading!
submitted by Furples to poker [link] [comments]

My Story.

The Journey.
tldr: I started playing just over a year ago and I freakin' love it!
I wanted to share with people my journey 1 ¼ years into poker where I’ve been and where I’m going
Lifetime Everything https://postimg.org/image/7lsgxpqcd/
Lifetime SNG https://postimg.org/image/3vsu4tehp/
Lifetime MTT https://postimg.org/image/l7t6q97z1/
It all began one winter evening being bored and wanting to have a bit of a flutter on something. I fire up Sky Bingo and off I go, fun times. Poker, another product they offer was highlighting they had a bonus so we though why not eh what this looks fun. I knew the rules of the game and had always enjoyed playing and watching it but just never found the time to take it seriously.
I started off playing bits and bobs of anything but came to find Double Your Money SitNGos were quite fun didn’t break the bank and gave me a fair bit of game play. I then wanted to discover a bit of strategy for the game. I have always been aware that poker “is beatable” and that you are not against the house and wanted to learn a bit more about what to do and what is considered best practise.
I found www.pokerstrategy.com and read all the free information I could on SitNGos. The PDF on the page (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sit-and-go/sit-n-go-beginner-strategy/1/) was the eureka moment really. It provided me with a starting hand guide and a basic post flop guide as to what to continue with and why. This changed my poker thought process to understand that you really are looking for top pair, not just any pair, and that some hands are just far better than others.
I will try to keep a running tally of concepts that I discover along the way and also highlight on my Sharkscope graph were I am in my game and what I’m doing.
So I start playing lots of micro stake DYMs I feel I am playing just great and already I’m questioning these fish on how they are opening KQo UTG thinking that’s not on the chart the madmen. At this point I am playing a lot, my first game was on the 4/10/2015 and by 1/1/2016 I have played about 1500 of them for a sterling profit off…. -£110 sigh….
At this point I actually discover Sharkscope. Someone says something in the chat box of a game I am playing and it intrigues me to how he knew someone was a losing player so I ask and find out.
https://postimg.org/image/65gyfknfh/
So during this first 1000 game I manage to find a torrent with a load of classic poker books so at this point I read. Harrington on Holdem 1,2 &3 Sklanskys Theory of Poker & Advanced Holdem. Phil Gordons Little Green Book These books start giving me a lot more of a knowledge base to start of how to start thinking about the game. At this point I’m getting seriously hooked but am still super annoyed that I’m not in the green. I’m thinking I’ve read the books WTF I should be smashing it now :-S.
I decided to make a spreadsheet to start recording how I’m doing each day and just to monitor everything at this point, just randomly messing about I discover that if I had played all my game at the £3.30 level instead of the £1.15 & £0.60 level that I actually would of made a profit!!! I had never even really considered that the extra 5% rake could really be making that much of a difference but to someone who has been playing for the grand total of 2 months it is no surprise whatsoever
https://postimg.org/image/w4uif0uql/
So I do it I make my first move up stakes. It feels like a lifetime ago now that I was terrified about how much £3.30 was coming out my bankroll. The biggest change now was the regs. Obviously other people knew the micro stakes were a lot tougher to beat due to rake so there were a lot more winning players to be found at the £3’s as this was the first level to have 10%. This basically meant if you can be ITM around 56%+ you would be winning. So now my game is coming along pretty well am really enjoying it. I start to play MTTs, on SKY there is a lot of Bounty Hunter tournaments so this is what I ended up playing quite a few of but they only ran a handful in the day that were under a £5er and at the time paying £5 to enter into something seemed like a pretty big shot to take.
I start to really enjoy tournaments they were exciting with the chance to win some big buckaroos! This is my first few hundred MTTs and considering I had been playing poker for still only 2-3months at the point I was happy it was in the green  As far as my skill level progressing, I am basically just a nit breaking even but my thirst for knowledge of the game is through the roof. I find 2+2 and starting reading it all. I have read every thread in the beginners section all the “Best ofs” and most of “The Wells”. I have also gone through and read hundreds upon hundreds of hand histories and tried to drill in a thought process that I could use to poker for when I’m thinking what to do.
https://postimg.org/image/rk8c03b19/
On the 23rd of Feb this year I accidentally reg an £11 tournament FFFUUU. I was a bit gutted as it just seemed loads it was also a 1R1A tournament of which I couldn’t really afford to rebuy or add-on lol but what came next was this:
https://postimg.org/image/5v9fw88t9/
Boom, I couldn’t get over it not 4 months ago I had loaded up a game of bingo and now I was this absolute sicko crushing the highest stakes I beat a HUSNG pro heads up to take it down. I remember just staring at the balance on my account and thinking this is easy.
The next part of my journey was finding out exactly how untrue that was. I had got lucky but I was just a nit who other than just about being able to play my value hands couldn’t do much more. This was enough for me to have a good time and that £300 went a long way. We had a couple of nights out brought me an e-cig and some other vaping things and just generally helped out a bit. I also went and played my first live tournament. This was a bit of mad experience I was so out of my depths but I have continued to play and winning my first live tournament will continue to be one of my coolest moment At this part of my strategy knowledge timeline I read Kill Everyone.
This is this book that I guess really got my LAG juices flowing. I liked the idea of putting people to the test as I had felt I had been put the test and pushed about at the tables more than once while I waited for my Aces. It certainly helped my game but at the time I was absorbing so much poker information from so many different sources I went through different phases of trying out things that seemed to work, do them too much then settle back in to see how this thing can fit into my game.
Every new trick seemed to follow this pattern of learn>integrate>abuse>reduce>master (to a degree). I would frequently be saying right back to basics when I seemed to be losing all the time but the new skill I had acquired would naturally fit itself into my game once I had tested all the boundaries of it. At this point as I say have read hundreds upon hundreds of hand histories. Watched and noted betting lines in loads of major tournament played with hole cards. I started trying to mimic these ranges and starting thinking in ranges as a whole that has got what, what have I got, what could I have everything. The idea of balance becomes forefront in my mind for a while. I spend a lot of time studying equities between different opening ranges for different player types and position in Equilab this helps my game a lot and I feel I have moved to a new stage in my game, yet again. After a while I seem to be ticking along nicely making enough in DYMs to cover my MTT shots and just having fun playing.
My next big epiphany as such was that I basically shouldn’t be giving a shit about balance and I should be exploiting fishes for the absolute maximum if I have them in a pot with me. I work on my bet sizing strategies and again I look back and think wtf have I been doing to so long. I stopped checking back the river so much. I gain a sick lust to get the thinnest value out of any spot I reasonably could be ahead and actually start getting better results. More consistent deeper runs and just a much better general feel for the game.
From the back of a decent win I get the opportunity to move up stakes. This is great twofold, 1 it means my cashes are just a bigger amount and 2 the field size in the £5+ compared to the £1-5 range is massive. I am now playing in tournaments with 50-100 people in instead of 100-500 people in. The variance is reduced in the smaller fields and although there is more regs there is still plenty of losing players to be had. The amounts I have won are not ground breaking but to me they have really made a big change to my life. I really love this game and have to say I think it will continue to have a positive effect on my life.
submitted by theg23 to poker [link] [comments]

When to GTFO with GTO (Game Theory for Beginners)

Edit: If you somehow manage to read this whole thing, you should definitely follow it up by reading Asuth's comment below
As with my last post, the following is my understanding of the topic so there's a good chance something I say is incorrect. I'm not claiming what I know is fact, so don't be offended if anything is wrong. After all, how are we going to learn if we never share our ideas and get corrected on them? Anyway, to the post (warning it's super long):
Basic GTO
It seems like the "in" thing is GTO right now, or at least has been for a couple years. I guess the regs got bored of just beating the fish so they decided to start trying to figure out how to beat the other regs. I'm kind of a fish in terms of actually using GTO in practice, so this post is more about explaining what GTO is to people who might not understand.
A big part of GTO play is balancing your ranges using combinatorics, such that you have a healthy ratio of value hands:bluffs. Ideally, this "healthy" ratio is the ratio that makes your opponent indifferent to calling with bluff-catchers. This seems counter intuitive, but Matthew Janda explains it better. He explains in Applications of No Limit Holdem that "A balanced river betting range consists of the right ratio of value bets and bluffs so our opponent is indifferent to calling with a large group of hands commonly referred to as 'bluff catchers' since they only beat our bluffs."
It's basically a Goldilocks and the Three Bears situation. If your river betting range in a certain spot is 100% value hands and 0% bluffs, then your opponent can play perfectly and just fold out hands that aren't ahead of your value range (his bluff-catchers). EZ game. Or if your range is 0% value hands and 100% bluffs, then your opponent can play perfectly against you by calling every time with his bluff-catcher hands. We don't want to give our opponent the opportunity to play perfectly with any of his hands. To find a balance that is just right, you should a construct a range in which your opponent is indifferent to calling or folding with bluffcatchers. He can't expoit you by folding them and he can't exploit you by calling with them. Hence, this is unexploitable play because your range is balanced. In theory, your opponent should respond by calling with a range that makes you indifferent to bluffing. (This is an inception-like concept that is hard to wrap your head around, and frankly I'm not smart enough to explain it coherently. Read Applications of No Limit Holdem by Matthew Janda if you want to understand it better)
So how do you figure out the golden unexploitable ratio? The short answer is math. I'm not going to cover the math in depth because (1) This post is about understanding GTO, not applying it and (2) I don't really understand the intricacies well enough. If you're interested in actually applying GTO, then check out AoNLH. I will, however, give a short, easy example (similar to one from the book):
On a board of AT825, let's say we make a pot-sized bet (PSB). Assume our value hands include anything better than Ax hands. Also assume we might decide to bluff hands like 33. Finally, let's assume our opponent has a lot of bluff catchers in his range like JT, QT, K8, etc.
If we want our river betting range to be balanced, we must use the pot size and the betsize to determine how often we have to be bluffing in order to make our opponents indifferent to calling. In this case, the math is pretty easy. By calling, villain is risking 1 PSB to win 2 PSBs (one is the pot and the other we are putting into the pot with our bet). We therefore need to be bluffing 33% of the time to have a balanced range. This makes more sense if we consider our opponents options if he knows we're bluffing too much. Let's say that we bet hands like 33 around 50% of the time. Our opponent will respond by calling with hands like JT, and he will win the pot 50% of the time. Half the time he calls and wins 2 PSBs, and half the time he loses the PSB he called with. His EV is calculated by doing:
(0.5)(2 PSB) + (0.5)(-1 PSB) = +0.5 PSB
Therefore, our opponent can take advantage of us here by calling with bluffcatchers if we bluff too much. But what if we don't bluff enough? If we are literally never bluffing, then our opponent can correctly fold bluff catchers and we never get value.
To summarize: if we bluff too much, we give our opponent an easy +EV spot to call with bluffcatchers. If we don't bluff enough, we miss out on sweet sweet value. Using the same formula used above we can derive the 33% bluff ratio by calculating the spot where the EV of our opponent calling is 0.
(2PBS)(x) - (1PBS)(1-x) = 0
X = 0.333
MATH!111!~~ AM I RIGHT?
Before I talk more about how this applies to uNL, I want to cover a question that I still don't fully understand:
When is it ok to have an unbalanced range?
There are inevitably going to be some spots where we are absolutely never bluffing. Say for example you have aces in the BB and the action goes UTG raise, MP 3bet, and CO min 4bet. Action is on you. Calling the min-4bet to "disguise your hand" looks pretty suspicious in addition to being stupid because it gives MP the opportunity to setmine. So we should 5bet shove 100% of the time. And our 5bet shoving range is not a balanced one, obviously, because we aren't ever doing this with bluffs. Is this ok? Obviously, yes. But I'd be interested to hear about other spots in which its ok to have an unbalanced range (against a thinking opponent). In what situations is it ok, and it what situations is it not ok?
GTO and uNL
Now that I've covered some basic theory and posed my own question revealing how little I actually know, I want to talk about more concrete examples that apply to uNL players. In the ace-high board example, it was clear that our opponent could exploit us if we had an unbalanced range. If we bluffed too much, he could call with bluffcatchers. If we didn't bluff enough, he folded them.
The same idea, believe it or not, is used regularly by a 5NL reg. This is because poker is a game of exploitation. If we notice a nit is only 3betting AA/KK, then we can play perfectly against him. We can setmine if we're getting the right price, and fold out everything else that isn't AA if we aren't. By doing this, we are exploiting the nit's unbalanced range. The same thing applies when you fold AK to a fish's turn raise on a AJ96 board. You know he's never bluffing, and you know that one pair is never ahead of his value range. Assuming you're not tilting because the fish actually picked up a hand, you can play perfectly against him because he's never bluffing. From these examples, it should be clear that a lot of your money at uNL comes from exploiting wildly unbalanced ranges.
The logical next question to ask is, "Should we be balancing our ranges at uNL?" After all, it would be a real bummer if someone was exploiting them. Well, the M. Night Shyamalan twist is this:
It depends (big surprise there), but mostly no. This is because we don't need to balance our ranges against players that won't exploit our ranges, and most uNL players aren't smart enough to exploit them.
Think about that guy who is playing 50/2 over 100 hands. He probably has his dick in one hand and the TV remote in the other. He's watching the basketball game or watching porn (or both), and isn't paying any attention to the table whatsoever. When you 3bet him in position, his thought process is "I have J8s. It's a pretty hand and maybe I'll flop something. I call". Against this player, you can just 3bet purely your value hands because he's an idiot. You don't need to throw in bluffs to balance these value hands because this guy would never exploit you by folding hands that are behind your value range. In fact, this guy doesn't really fold hands ever. Basically, the average loose-passive uNL villain calls too much. He will call your value bets with worse hands anyway, so there's no need to bluff if he's just going to call those too. He will never adjust, so you can just keep relentlessly value betting him.
Alternatively, let's say you are on the button against a nit in the BB. You know he will fold 90% of his hands if you raise, so you decide to raise any two cards. Your range is completely unbalanced, as you have a ton of bluffs and very few value hands. In theory, he could exploit you by defending his BB much wider or by 3betting wider. But because he's not a thinking player, he will almost never adjust and it's perfectly ok to continue to raise the button with any two cards.
Generally speaking, only the thinking regs will actually adjust to your frequencies. Against these players, you should be balancing your ranges. However, these players are very rare in uNL. In fact, most of your winrate in uNL comes from playing exploitably against fish and nits that will never adjust to exploit you. Therefore, the marginal benefit of playing GTO in regards to your winrate is quite small. As poker players, we should focus on maximizing winrate, so we should be looking for these spots to balance our ranges. However, we aren't that much worse off by just playing exploitably against everyone, because only a fraction of players will actually exploit us. By no means am I advocating this btw, I'm just tring to explain it conceptually.
GTO on Anonymous Sites
This was brought up on a previous post and I got more disagreement than agreement. I'm going to lay my thoughts out here and you guys can tell me if you continue to disagree with this. I am of the opinion that we should be not playing GTO as a default on an anonymous site like Bovada, especially at 5NL through 50NL. Here's why:
In our example with the 5NL nit, we were able to play perfectly against his nutted 3betting range. Unlike this nitty pleibian in question, our balanced 3betting range would include some bluffs. To take another example from Applications of No Limit Holdem, let's look at a reasonable button 3betting range against a MP open:
[AA-QQ, AJo, KQo, AKs, A5s-A4s, T8s, 97s]
As you can see, we include bluffs that either include blockers or have solid playability but aren't quite good enough to call with. This is different from the nits range in the same spot, which is:
[AA, KK, maybe QQ if feeling frisky]
How would someone be able to tell if our 3betting range is the nits range or the balanced range? Two ways come to mind:
With these two things in mind, it's very hard to discern on Bovada whether somebody has a balanced or nutted 3betting range, given that you rarely play more than 70 hands against the same person. So unless you see someone show down 97s after 3betting, how can you exploit an unknown range? Barring table reads like stack sizes, the solution is to develop a default strategy against the average opponent.
Imagine the player pool of Bovada as one giant player. If you play optimally against him, then you will make the most money. In order to use this strategy to construct a readless button 3betting range as discussed above, consider the following assumptions:
With these three assumptions in mind, it's clear to me that we should not be 3betting 97s against a MP open without a read. Someone on my previous thread was suggesting "playing GTO as a default" and then exploiting people when we see fit. But in this case we would be burning money if we 3bet with a balanced, polarized 3betting range. Instead, we're better off playing exploitably because we know the average player calls too much. Without a read, I would usually only 3bet my value hands knowing that most villains in question will still call pretty wide because they don't understand ranges or equity. This 3betting range of purely value hands is unbalanced, but arguably the most profitable.
On the other hand, if we determine the average player folds too much to 3bets and doesn't adjust, then I would 3bet a really wide range. This range would also be unbalanced (too many bluffs), but again would be the most profitable because our opponents are folding a ton and not adjusting. Therefore, in my opinion, this can summed up with:
If you play on an anonymous site in which the average player is not adjusting to exploitable ranges, you should focus on playing most profitably against the average player, regardless of whether this strategy is GTO.
This is an idea I just pulled out of my ass and can't find in a book, so I'd love to hear your thoughts in case I'm missing something.
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Continuation Betting - Advanced Poker Concepts When and How Much to Continuation Bet - Now You Know How The Best Poker Players Do It! zZzTILT and phl500 Talk About Continuation Betting in HU Poker Continuation Betting in Poker How To Continuation Bet Flops (Advanced C-Betting)  SplitSuit

Player must open the betting action then be the one to 4-bet. Five Bet: How often someone raises a 4-bet: Fold to 4-Bet: How often a player folds to a 4-Bet: Four Bet Range: Four Bet Range in Holdem Manager 1 is caculated: Preflop Raise x (vs Raise 3bet %) Fold_vs_3b.EP.Total: Fold to a 3-Bet in EP: Fold_vs_3b.MP.Total: Fold to a 3-Bet in MP With this Holdem Manager 3 review, I will try to answer the most important question is it worth upgrading from the previous version and how you can benefit from this tool.. Holdem Manager 3 Review: New Features. The new HM3 looks the most user-friendly tracking software, and on top of that, it lets you customize everything to the details, which not only looks great but also gives a lot of Continuation Betting and Folding to it. The percentage of times when the preflop raiser bets again later in the hand is measured by the CB stat in Holdem Manager and CBet stat in Poker Tracker. This HUD statistic is very important for the simple reason that the particular situation occurs so often. Situations when c-betting can be passed Of course you should not c-bet all the time. Poker tracking software such as holdem manager calculate the so-called "percent c-bet", which tells how often a player makes a continuation bet. This percent should be about 65-75% in full ring NLTH for instance. If you bet more often, you bluff too much. The best poker players are aggressive. And continuation betting helps you show aggression after the flop. Rather than checking or calling, you take control of the situation and force your opponent to ponder if your hand has or hasn’t connected. Your opponent will fail to have a pair on the flop 2 out of every 3 times. This is why continuation

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Continuation Betting - Advanced Poker Concepts

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