|Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)|
|The skin of a Treyvon Hester’s pinky saved the Eagles’ season last week as it altered the flight of the Cody Parkey field goal attempt just enough to cause the double doink and send the Eagles to the divisional game against the number 1 seed New Orleans’ Saints. On the Eagles last trip to the Superdome earlier in the season they took a beating of lifetime as the Saints rolled 48-7 running up the score and going for it on 4th down in the fourth when they were already in field goal range and up 3 scores. The Eagles will be looking for revenge and a win to send them back to the NFCCG and a chance to go back to the Super Bowl and defend their title. The task won’t be easy, the high powered offense run by Drew Brees and architected by Sean Payton have put up points at will this season averaging 31.5 points per game. The Eagles defense will need to play better this time around if they have any hope of pulling up the upset in New Orleans. The eagles will have some help Avonte Maddox who missed a majority of the first meeting with an injury has returned and played well of late and the Eagles got some reinforcements on the DL getting DT Timmy Jernigan back from the NFI list. The Eagles patchwork secondary has also become more in sync the past few games which should help. On the other side of the ball the Eagles will look a little different from their first meeting with Nick Foles under a healthy Jason Kelce who missed majority of the first game and healthy Lane Johnson. The Eagles have also returned Darren Sproles since their first meeting who has looked spry in his return to action adding another dimension to the Eagles offense. Both these teams are hungry to add another Super Bowl trophy to the collection. While Pederson said being in the divisional round was motivation enough, which may be true as many of the players on this team already have a ring from last season and know what is at stake. Payton took a different route wheeling in the trophy and 200K in cash presumably taken from the leftover Bounty Fund to motivate his team to win the next three games. No matter how they motivate their players though, the two coaches will be in a chess match Sunday with the winner moving on to the NFC Championship and a step closer to the Super Bowl. Go Birds!|
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|Sunday, January 13th, 2019|
|Game Time||Game Location|
|4:40 PM - Eastern||Mercedes-Benz Superdome|
|3:40 PM - Central||1500 Sugar Bowl Drive|
|2:40 PM - Mountain||New Orleans, LA 70112|
|1:40 PM - Pacific||Wikipedia - Map|
|Stadium Type: Dome|
|Feels Like: 51°F|
|Chance of Precipitation: 0%|
|Cloud Coverage: 50%|
|Favorite/Opening Line: New Orleans by -8|
|Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 7-9-1, New Orleans 10-6|
|Where to Watch on TV|
|FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a national audience. Kevin Burkhardt will handle the play-by-play duties and Charles Davis will provide analysis. Pam Oliver will report from the sidelines.|
|NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams|
|Disclaimer: Subscription Based Official NFL Radio Streams available via TuneIn|
|List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability|
|Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming|
|Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick|
|Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (41st season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.|
|Philadelphia, PA||WIP-FM||94.1 FM and 610 AM|
|Allentown, PA||WCTO-FM||96.1 FM|
|Atlantic City/South Jersey||WENJ-FM||97.3 FM|
|Levittown, PA||WBCB-AM||1490 AM|
|Northumberland, PA||WEGH-FM||107.3 FM|
|Pottsville, PA||WPPA-AM||1360 AM|
|Reading, PA||WEEU-AM||830 AM|
|Salisbury/Ocean City, MD||WAFL-FM||97.7 FM|
|Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA||WEJL-FM||96.1 FM|
|Salisbury/Ocean City, MD||WAFL-FM||97.7 FM|
|Salisbury/Ocean City, MD||WEJL-AM||630 AM|
|Salisbury/Ocean City, MD||WBAX-AM||1240 AM|
|Williamsport, PA||WBZD-FM||93.3 FM|
|Wilmington, DE||WDEL-FM/AM||101.7 FM|
|York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA||WSOX-FM||96.1 FM|
|Philadelphia Spanish Radio|
|Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.|
|Philadelphia, PA||LA MEGA||105.7 FM|
|Allentown, PA||WSAN||1470 AM|
|Atlantic City, NJ||WIBG||1020 AM; 101.3 FM|
|WWL (870AM/105.3FM) is the flagship station of the Saints Radio Network. Former Saints offensive tackle Zach Strief handles the play-by-play duties, former Saints running back Deuce McAllister provides color commentary and Steve Geller is on the New Orleans sideline for all the contests.|
|Westwood One Radio will carry the game nationally with Kevin Harlan (play-by-play) and James Lofton (analyst) and Tucker(sideline).|
|Station||Eagles Channel||Saints Channel||National Channel|
|Sirius Radio||SIRI 82(Internet 825)||SIRI 83 (Internet 821)||SIRI 88( Internet 88)|
|XM Radio||XM 226 (Internet 825)||XM 225 (Internet 821)||SIRI 88( Internet 88)|
|Sirius XM Radio||SXM 226 (Internet 825)||SXM 225 (Internet 821)||SIRI 88( Internet 88)|
|Eagles Social Media||Saints Social Media|
|Snapchat: Eagles||Snapchat: Saints|
|NFC East Standings|
|NFC EAST||W||PCT||Home||Road||Div||Conf||PF||PA||Net Pts||Strk|
|NFC Playoff Picture|
|This Weekends NFC Games|
|Cowboys @ Rams1/122019 8:15PM EST||LA Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA|
|Eagles @ Saints||1/13/2019 4:40PM EST||Mercedes-Benz Stadium, New Orleans, LA|
|AFC Playoff Picture|
|This Weekends AFC Games|
|Colts @||1/12/2019 4:35PM EST||Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO|
|Chargers @ Patriots||1/13/2019 1:05PM EST||Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA|
|Philadelphia Eagles lead the New Orleans Saints, (17-14)|
|Head to Head Box Scores|
|First Game Played|
|November 6, 1967 at Tulane Stadium, New Orleans, LA. New Orleans Saints 31 - Philadelphia Eagles 24|
|The Philadelphia Eagles lead the New Orleans Saints (726-656)|
|Doug Pederson: 0-1 vs. the Saints|
|Sean Payton: 6-2 vs. the Eagles|
|Coaches Head to Head|
|Pederon vs Payton: Payton leads 1-0|
|Nick Foles: Against Saints 0-1|
|Drew Brees: Against Eagles: 4-3|
|Quarterbacks Head to Head|
|Nick Foles vs Drew Brees: Brees leads 1-0|
|Records per Stadium|
|Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Series tied: 2-2|
|Record @ Mercedes Benz SuperDome: Philadelphia leads series: 8-6|
|Rankings and Last Meeting Information|
|AP Pro 32 Ranking|
|Eagles No. 12 - Saints No. 1|
|Last Meeting and Last Meeting at Site|
|Sunday, November 26th, 2017|
|Saints 48 - Eagles 7|
|The Eagles went into New Orleans beat up and left worse off as Jason Kelce, Avonte Maddox and Sidney Jones all left the game due to injury. The beat up Eagles were no match for the Saints who had their way with them all day long. Brees passed for 363 yards and four touchdowns, and the Saints won their ninth straight with a 48-7 demolition of Philadelphia on Sunday that marked the Eagles' worst loss by far since they won last season's Super Bowl.|
|Click here to view the Video Recap|
|Click here to view the Stats Recap|
|Last 10 Meetings|
|Injury Reports||Depth Charts|
|Playoff Matchup Picks|
|Divisional Round - "Expert" Picks|
|2018 Regular Season Team Stats|
|Eagles Season Stats|
|Saints Season Stats|
|2018 Regular Season Stats (Starters/Leaders)|
|League Rankings 2018|
|Category||Eagles Stat||Eagles Rank||Saints Stat||Saints Rank|
|Points Per Game||22.9||18th||31.5||3rd|
|Red Zone Offense (TD%)||57.9%||17th||69.6%||4th|
|Category||Eagles Stat||Eagles Rank||Saints Stat||Saints Rank|
|Points Per Game||21.8||12th||22.1||14th|
|Red Zone Defense (TD%)||44.6%||1st||63.3%||23rd|
|Category||Eagles Stat||Eagles Rank||Saints Stat||Saints Rank|
|Penalty Per Game||6.3||9th||5.9||T-5th|
|Penalty Yards Per Game||53.3||T-8th||58.7||15th|
|Recap from Last Week’s Games.|
|Eagles - Video – In the battle of Reid’s Bastards, Pederson’s team struck first as the Eagles scored on a Jake Elliott field goal on the opening possession. The scoring went silent until a Nick Foles INT set up a FG for the Bears to bring the score to a tie, the Bears added another field to take the Bears into halftime up 6-3. The Eagles took the lead on their first possession of the second half with a Dallas Goedert TD before the Bears answered with a TD and FG of their own to take a 15-10 lead. The Philadelphia Eagles needed help to get into the playoffs, and Chicago provided it. The Eagles repaid them by knocking off the number defense for the second year in a row in the playoffs to send the Bears home. Foles lead the Eagles offense down field and scored a Golden Tate TD with under a minute to go in the game. The Bears marched down the field with a chance to answer and come away with the win on a last second field. Pederson iced Parkey on his first attempt when he lined up for his second shot. He lined up and kicked it with a slightly low trajectory, just low enough for the pinky of Trayvon Hester alter the flight and cause a double doink off the upright and cross bar. The Philadelphia Eagles needed help to get into the playoffs, and Chicago provided it. The Eagles repaid them by sending them home in the wildcare round as Pederson came out victorious in the Battle of Reid’s bastards.|
|Saints - Saints had a first round bye.|
|Eagles QB Nick Foles and Saints QB Drew Brees attended Westlake High School.|
|Saints HC Sean Payton worked as the QB Coach for the Eagles from 1997-1998 seasons.|
|Eagles starting safety Malcom Jenkins was drafted by the Saints in the first round of the 2009 draft and played for the Saints from 2009-2013.|
|Saints safety Kurt Coleman was drafted by the Eagles in the 7th round of the 2010 draft any played for the Eagles from 2010-2013.|
|Saints corner Eli Apple was born in Philadelphia, PA.|
|Saints WR Keith Kirkwood attended Temple University in Philadelphia, PA.|
|Saints CB Patrick Robonsin played one season with the Eagles in 2017 and was a member of the Super Bowl Team.|
|Saints Senior Defensive Assistant Peter Giunta worked as the Eagles DB coach from 1991-1994.|
|DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)||QB Drew Brees (Starter)|
|OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)||WR Michael Thomas (Starter)|
|TE Zach Ertz (Starter)||OT Terron Armstead (Starter)|
|DE Camerron Jordan (Starter)|
|C Max Unger|
|Referee: Carl Cheffers|
|The Philadelphia Eagles finished with the top ranked front seven in football according to Pro Football Focus.|
|Avonte Maddox has allowed the second lowest passer rating in the NFL this season.|
|The Eagles have gone the most consecutive playoff game without a 100 yard rusher (nine games). The last time they had one Brian Westbrook against the Saints in 2006.|
|Eagles Defensive Line have the 4th best pass rush win rate within 2.5 seconds at 57% according to ESPN NextGen Stats.|
|No team has repeated as Super Bowl champion since New England in 2004, and the Eagles are a sixth seed. The last sixth seed to win the NFL title was Green Bay in the 2010 season; the Packers won the NFC championship at Soldier Field that season.|
|Nick Foles has thrown multiple TDs in three consecutive playoff games, which is tied with Donovan McNabb (Jan. 16-Feb. 6, 2005) for the longest streak in Eagles postseason history. Overall, Foles has recorded two-or-more passing TDs in four of his five career playoff games.|
|Nick Foles has beaten the No. 1 scoring defense in consecutive postseasons (2018 Bears, 2017 Vikings). John Elway (1997-98) and Joe Montana (1988-89) are the only other QBs since the 1970 merger to do that.|
|TE Dallas Goedert||DE Marcus Davenport|
|CB Avonte Maddox||WR Tre'Quan Smith|
|DE Josh Sweat||OT Rick Leonard|
|T Matt Pryor||S Natrell Jameron|
|T Jordan Mailata||CB Kamrin Moore|
|RB Boston Scott|
|C Will Clapp|
|Notable Off-season Additions|
|WR Mike Wallace||CB Patrick Robinson|
|WR Markus Wheaton||CB Eli Apple|
|DT Haloti Ngata||TE Benjamin Watson|
|P Cameron Johnston||G Jermon Bushrod|
|DT Bruce Hector||WR Cameron Meredith|
|LB DJ Alexander||LB Demario Davis|
|WR Jordan Matthews||S Kurt Coleman|
|Notable Off-season Departures|
|DE Vinny Curry||TE Coby Fleener|
|WR Torrey Smith||G Senio Kelemete|
|RB Kenjon Barner||OT Zach Strief|
|RB LaGarrett Blount||QB Chase Daniel|
|LB RB Mychal Kendricks||S Rafael Bush|
|CB Patrick Robinson||S Kenny Vaccaro|
|TE Trey Burton||LB Jonathan Freeny|
|DT Beau Allen|
|P Donnie Jones|
|WR Marcus Johnson|
|TE Brent Celek|
|PFF Stats to Know|
|Eagles fans have been loving the physicality of the Eagles defense, lately, and especially the comeuppance of LB Nigel Bradham and CB Rasul Douglas. Both have been indispensable and tackling machines, lately. Looking at the CBs - Of the 8 teams remaining in the playoffs, New Orleans features 3 CBs in the top 6 in terms of tackling efficiency (weighted by snaps), when looking at the 2018 regular season (Lattimore, Crawley, Williams. If you narrow that to the second half of the season, Rasul Douglas rises to #8. Looking at the LBs - Hicks and Grugier-Hill were the 4th and 9th-best in tackling efficiency, with Anzalone at 11th, Davis at 16th, and Bradham at 18th. If you're going to look at the 2nd half of the season to see who was on the rise, well Bradham didn't actually rise. That distinction falls to Craig Robertson, who was 5th, Anzalone at 10th, and Grugier-Hill at 11th. Hicks was 16th, Gerry 17th, and Bradham 18th. Run Stopping was Bradham's bigger strength, neck-and-neck with AJ Klein and Davis (9th, 8th, 10th, respectively for the regular season).|
|Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge (join.profootballfocus.com/edge/)|
|WDB Matchups (CAPS = expected shadow coverage)|
|More Eagles running backs have had 100-yard postseason rushing games at the Superdome in New Orleans than in any other stadium. Including their own stadiums! Wilbert Montgomery had the only Eagles 100-yard rushing game at the Vet (194 yards in the 1980 NFC Championship Game) and Brian Westbrook has the only one so far at the Linc (141 yards against the Giants in a 2006 wild-card game). But both Heath Sherman (105 yards in 1992 wild-card game) and Westbrook (116 yards in 2006 conference semifinals) have done it at the Superdome.|
|Matchups to Watch|
|Eagles Passing Attack vs. Saints Pass Defense|
|Thanks to Eagles great Cody Parkey, the Eagles have a chance for revenge Sunday in New Orleans. The Saints are a complete team and even if the Eagles were at full strength this would be a significant test for them. Both sides of the ball are playing and coaching well of late with some stability added to the Eagles back end. Despite that, the biggest matchup the Eagles need to win will be with their passing offense. The Eagles defense does have the ability to make some plays that can change the game but it will be a tall task given injury and Brees. Basically, the Saints should be able to score and the Eagles are going to need to keep up. The Saints enter the contest with a top flight run defense by yardage surrendered and yards per carry which plays into the Eagles hands since they aren't an effective run offense. The simple truth is you throw to score points and get a lead then rush to keep the lead and bleed the clock. The Eagles will need Foles to play a much cleaner game than he did outside of the final drive last week. Fortunately, he'll have the benefit of facing a worse, but solid, pass defense. The Saints do have talented pieces in their secondary with second year pros Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams. After those two the matchups become more intriguing for the Eagles. It's no secret the Eagles struggled mightily to incorporate Golden Tate into the offense but it appears that the coaches have finally made him a useful part of the offense. The shift to 12 personnel to close and save the season was a breath of fresh air but the Eagles beat the Bears with heavy 11 personnel. This was smart as it allowed the Eagles to best attack where the Bears defense was relatively weak. Since the Beatdown on Bourbon, the Saints have allowed an opponent passer rating of 80.3 with 5.6 yards per attempt and an average of 8.3 Air Yards per attempt against 11 personnel. Compare that to a passer rating allowed of 107.2 with 8.2 yards per attempt and an average of 13.3 Air Yards per attempt out of 12 personnel and you can see where the cracks in the pass defense are. Given the depth of receiving options for the Eagles and the questionable players on the back end for the Saints, it's possible we'd see an uptick in 12 personnel to take advantage of weak safety play from players not named Marcus Williams and questionable coverage LBs. But the Eagles are multiple out of every personnel grouping and can really give the Saints defense fits with what they do. Furthermore, the short passing game serves as an extension of the running game so we'll see a diverse attack against the Saints. New Orleans is very likely to score in the contest so the Eagles offense needs to be the one to carry the defense in this showdown. They have the opportunity, coaching, and talent to do so.|
|Eagles Defensive Line vs. Saints Offensive Line|
|t all starts up front for the Eagles in this contest as it does for the Saints as well. This is a strength v. strength matchup that the Saints won with ease last time surrendering only 1 QB hit and a handful of pressures. That cannot happen to the Eagles again this week. The pass rush will have to have some impact in order to throw off the Saints pass rush. Drew Brees will go down as one of the best QBs in the history of the sport but like every QB in the NFL his production dips against pressure. Brees is one of the best QBs under pressure but pressure forces fewer successful plays and even negative plays. Unfortunately for the Eagles they face a Saints OL that should have all of their starters ready for contest. Armstead is an elite tackle and Ramczyk is a very good right tackle; both are very good in run and pass protection. PFF LVP Andrus Peat is a good LG and Center Max Unger had an All Pro caliber season. It's a good group that is well coached. There have been some cracks in production lately for the offensive line as they suffered some injury so it'll be wise to pay attention to how they all play coming out of the bye. Depth along the DL for the Eagles isn't as great as it normally is but the unit is playing as well as it could be at the most important time. They'll need to be active and disciplined to defend the air and ground attacks of the Saints. The greater impact must come against the pass in order to throw the Saints offense out of rhythm.|
|Eagles Pass Defense vs Saints Passing Offense|
|If the Eagles are going to pull off the upset they are going to need to have one of their stronger performances of the year on the back end which is a tall task. In their first meeting, Schwartz elected to double team Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara repeatedly. This lead to predictable man to man across the board and forcing everyone else to win their 1v1 matchups. Yeah. This week that won't happen again since we do have warm bodies to build a game plan after learning a valuable lesson. Michael Thomas is fresh off of 1st Team AP honors with an 85% catch rate; the Eagles don't have a CB on the roster that can limit him and give him fits like Byron Jones did. Ted Ginn will return to action for this game. And Alvin Kamara is still Alvin Kamara. Most importantly, Drew Brees is still stupid good. The Eagles will likely have to come up with a game plan to take away/limit Michael Thomas but mix up a lot of coverages elsewhere. Either way, they need to add some variety in what they do while playing disciplined enough to take away the big play. Despite the increasingly positive play from the secondary as a whole it is still not a good enough unit to shut down the Saints offense. They'll need to work off the pass rush and play smart football to try and force the Saints into mistakes. And frankly, it'll come down to guys like Nigel Bradham not getting worked by lesser talents like Dan Arnold again.|
|Eagles Offensive Line vs Saints Pass Rush|
|This is another fun matchup for those interested in trench warfare as the elite Eagles offensive line battles the Saints fun pass rush. The Saints group is led by All Pro Cameron Jordan and budding star Sheldon Rankins. This is as formidable a pass rush duo as you'll find in the NFL. Both have the ability to generate a lot of heat on the QB and make big plays against opposing offenses. You'll see defensive coordinator Dennis Allen be very creative with both rushers - especially Jordan - by lining them up all over the formation. The rest of the Saints defensive front features a number of quality pass rushers the Eagles offensive line will face. Common perception after the Bears game was that the offensive line completely shut down Khalil Mack; while Mack didn't make any impact plays in pass rush he was still a factor. The Eagles OL rose to the occasion against a talented Bears front and limited them from making a huge impact even though they made some plays elsewhere. That's what the Eagles offensive line needs to do again and they are very capable of doing that. Additionally, the quicker time to throw as an offensive philosophical shift will help slow down the impact of the Saints pass rush group. Allowing the QB to think and play fast also protects the OL. When you have an OL as talented as the Eagles that can go a long way to having success. I would expect the Eagles to continue with what they have been doing while ensuring they eliminate Cameron Jordan from the equation. He's their best defensive player and pass rusher; minimizing his impact can help control the game. It won't be an easy task but it is the smart one. The OL just needs to make sure it accounts for the other rushers as well.|
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Thursday Night Recap
Singles: 2-2 (-0.02u) Soooo close! Personally I think the OBJ conspiracy was real. He had 10 targets (the most) and almost scored the first TD on their first drive. Not only did his TD get reviewed and overturned but soon after, Juju was taken out of the game. On to the next one!
Parlay: 0-0 (0u) None
BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Nothing of note here. We put in a free bet and it is still live, but there are much harder games to clear on this one. Lets ride the wave!
SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) None
Teasers: 0-0 (0u) None
Dallas @ Detroit (-7): This weeks games opens up with a 1pm slate of games that are dooseys. Almost every one of these games feels like the favorite should win but they all have a reasonable percentage of underdog upsets. With Stafford playing the algo predicts this one 27-24 Dallas. But with no Stafford this game is going to rely on the Lions D and their backup QB. The Lions run d allows 4.6 ypc (22nd) and 130 ypg (26th). While their pass D averages giving up 272 ypg (27th) and a 100 passer rating (23rd). The Cowboys passing offense is 3rd in ypg, 4th in ypc, and 1st in ypa 1st. Last week Zeek had a horrible game vs min going 20 rushes for only 47 yards at 2.4 ypc... but he is still top 10 in rush yards with 78 per game. Some interesting stats to go with the Dallas run game:
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5): Just as the Dallas game, this game looks like it should be a win for the favorite just based upon the offense for the favorite vs the defense of the dog. However, there are definitely scenarios that have Tampa Bay coming away with an upset. The algo has this one as NO -2. Curiously it look-ahead around -7 and has moved down to settle in around 5. This is probably due to the fact the Saints were embarrassed last week by the Falcons. They came out of the bye with 0 energy and the Falcons took advantage. TB was able to pull through last week despite losing the turnover battle and trailing in the fourth. Tampa Bay's ability to protect the ball on offense and force a turnover on defense will be the key for a victory. "They’re 2-12 in games with 0 takeaways. When they force a takeaway, they’re 22-27. When they record exactly one takeaway, they’re 5-16. When they record exactly two, they’re 5-10. Three, as it turns out, is the magic number. When they record at least three, they’re 12-1. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, New Orleans almost never commits three turnovers in a game. In fact, the Saints haven’t done so since 2017, and they haven’t committed two in any game this season." Uncharacteristically, Brees was sacked 6 times last week. Now he is going against Shaquile Barret this week who has 11.5 sacks (1st). The Saints do have Kamara back, but the TB rush D is tops allowing only 78 ypg (1st) and 3.4 ypc (3rd). Brees will likely look to the air as Thomas is on fire, averaging over 100 ypg, and the Tampa Bay pass D ranks bottom of the league giving up an average 299 ypg (league worst) and an average 100 passer rating (24th). In terms of injuries, almost everyone is a go. The only notable injury is Saints Marshon Lattimore. He has been ruled out and this should really add to the TB abuse of the deep ball. The algo does favor the Saints to win, but I don't think I can lay the points on this one.
Fun Fact: NFC South foes Tampa Bay and New Orleans have split their annual series every season since Jameis Winston entered the NFL. NO won the first meeting.
Atlanta at Carolina (-5): My algo has this coming out at Carolina -7. I understand the movement as Atlanta got a huge upset last Sunday and Carolina lost by 2 inches. Before we jump into the stats, I think the most important information for this game is Carolina’s starting tackles, Dennis Daley and Greg Little are both questionable for the game. If they play, I see Kyle Allen having time to throw, CMC having holes to run through, and little resistance from an ATL secondary that ranks near the bottom in everything. However, if those tackles are out, ATL may be able to repeat last weeks performance (6 sacks and 11 QB hits) and give themselves opportunity at another big divisional upset. Other injuries to note: The Falcons will be without tight end Austin Hooper, their receptions (56) and receiving touchdown (six) leader who is out with an MCL sprain. The Panthers will be without defensive back Ross Cockrell (quad), who has played a big role in a variety of positions in the secondary. But, for the Panthers, cornerback James Bradberry back. I am leaning towards Carolina here and while the focus will be on CMC, I think the edge can be found with the WR's in this one.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-2.5): Whoa. Two completely different QBs than the previous week for both teams. It looks as if Brissett is back for the Colts, and after 9 weeks with no BDN, Nick Foals returns. My algo has this game at 22-22 with some HFA to be added in for Indy. This looks like what Vegas got too because they made the spread -3 (hfa on a pk) and the total around 44. Looks like they don't know how to handle the QB change and decided to let the market dictate the price. The Jags are coming off a bye and see the return of wide receiver Dede Westbrook (neck), cornerback D.J. Hayden (neck) and linebacker Quincy Williams (hamstring). Both teams have rush defenses that rank in the bottom of the league, but on the flip side, both teams have rushing offenses that are pretty good. With Jax having the clear edge here. A key stat to note for the Jax rush defense is they are 4-0 when holding opponents under 100 yards rushing...but they are 0-5 when they dont. Without TY Hilton again this week to help stretch the field, I feel like JAX will be able to stack the box and keep the rush yards for IND to a minimum.
Denver at Minnesota (-10): This is another game where I dont think Vegas knows how to cap it. My algo came out with 15-25 MIN. They Vegas spread is -10 with a total of 40. It seems they know the public will like MIN just seeing them come off a win on prime time. As you have probably guessed, my gut leans DEN as I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS parlay. Let's look into the game to see what else is going on. First, we see Denver coming off a bye. Yet another QB named with the last name Allen hopped into the NFL, replacing the injured Joe Flacco and he was 12-of-20 passing for 193 yards and two touchdowns while beating the Cleveland Browns in his first career start. Then, he went into a bye week, giving him double time to get in sync with the plays and the receivers. You know what, there are stats that say the Vikings offense is legit, and the Broncos D is legit. They both have decent running games and run defenses. I'd say the key here is if Min can pressure the young QB. If they can...its a wrap. If they can't? I see Denver with an easy cover and possibly an upset.
NY Jets at Washington (-2.5) This is a curious coin flip of two bottom of the barrel teams this year. The Jets are coming of a win and the Redskins are coming off a bye. This feels like an under game. My algo has this at 20-20 but there is no adjustment for Haskins yet. He has had an extra week to prepare, but the Redskins tend to rely on AP to generate some running game. He will be going against a Jets run D that is L.E.G.I.T. giving up only 3ypc (best in the league) and 82 ypg (2nd). The Redskins run game will an added boost in Guice who will be returning. Honestly, all the numbers lean Jets favor. However... everywhere I look 70-75% of the bets are on the Jets...and the number keeps pushing in their favor. This is usually a big red flag to take the opposite of the majority!
Buffalo at Miami (+6.5): My algo has this 22-20 Buffalo. This is an interesting rematch of a divisional battle. This time though Frank Gore will be returning home to battle his old team in front of his family. Also Jordan Phillips, Bills defensive tackle is returning to where he was originally drafted. He is having a monster year, so watch out! Looking at the Bills offense, it has been pretty mediocre. However, it will be facing a Dolphins defense that ranks bottom in almost everything. ( 31st in points allowed, 29th in total yards, and 30th in sacks per attempt ) Im sure the Bills would like to see their RBs get it going in this match up, but the MIA run d hasn't been that bad. If you take out the games against Baltimore and Dallas (they gave up 500 rush yards in those two combined) then they only averaging giving up 116 per game. If they can hold Buffalo under 100 yards, the potential for an upset exists. The Bills have only ONE win in the 14 games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards since Sean McDermott took over as coach. They had only 84 last week in Cleveland.
Houston at Baltimore (-4.5): Oooo, this is probably going to be my favorite game of the 1pms. I rarely watch the games, but I am excited to see these teams match up. My algo has this game Bal -4.5. Lining right up with the Vegas spread. Will Fuller has been ruled out for HOU. I dont have analysis for this because Baltimore should be leading in most if not all categories. But I am going to give my gut play here and its ride with the Texans. No analysis, just gut.
Arizona at San Fransico (-9.5) Another divisional rematch. This one is interesting because it has seen a pretty big line movement. It opened in most places as high as -14. But has moved to settle around 9.5/10. My algo actually has this as SF -12.5, however that doesn't account for any injuries...of which the 49ers seem to have in spades. The Niners will be without running back Matt Breida, Joe Staley, and kicker Robbie Gould. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has been ruled out as he has not cleared the concussion protocol. Defensive lineman D.J. Jones has a groin injury that will sideline him this week. Emmanuel Sanders is hurt but looks to play and Kittle is listed as doubtful but who knows, we saw him dominate the last game vs AZ after his knee got reversed. Honestly, almost every article I read said the same thing. 49ers are mad injured, played 5 quarters on Monday and lost, and now play a divisional opponent on a short week that they only beat by 3 points just 2 weeks ago, bet the Cards to cover and possibly upset. That was my original train of thought too. Then I looked at the public betting percentages. Everywhere you look, 2 out of 3 spread tickets are on the Cards with some places over 70%. Yet the line has had a ton of trouble breaking 10 and with all that love for AZ you'd think it would drop to 7.5/8.5. Because of this, it appears the edge may actually be with the home team to win a blowout. Should be interesting to see what happens!
New England @ Philadelphia (+4.5): An interesting match up here. My algo has this 24-21 NE. Both teams are coming off a bye with limited injuries. The Pats will be without safety Chung, and the Eagles will be without darren sproles, alshon jeffery and deshean jackson. Jordan Mathews is questionable, but Ajayi was signed his week to help with RB depth. What makes this pick really hard is even with all these injuries to the Eagles and Bellichek's after a bye win percentage, AND 80% of the picks being on NE...the line has only moved a point, a point and a half a most. How big are the bets on the Eagles right now to keep the line from ballooning? The Eagles run d is legit, but their secondary is still crap. The Pats D was exposed last week but that was vs an MVP caliber QB lead offense. How has this line not moved?! I want to bet the Pats so bad, but there is this thread pulling at me to take the Eagles. Choose with care here boys.
Cincinatti @ Oakland (-11.5): There isn't much to say here. Cincy is winless and starting a backup QB that was destroyed last week. Oakland has some energy. They fought through a grueling road schedule and now get some rest at home. But, 11.5 points for an OAK team this year just seems like too much. And 11.5 for a cincy team with a back up QB on the road when he just lost by 40 at home...cant do it. The algo has this 24-18 OAK but thats not adjusted for the new QB. Honestly I dont have an adjustment for him because I dont know who he is! I am riding OAK to win in some parlays but points are tough. Knock on wood if you're with me. :D
Chicago @ LA Rams(-6): Last game of the day. Prime time NFC match up. While both of these teams are technically still live for a wild card spot, I don't think either will realistically make it. The Rams have a shot if they can win here AND win vs Dallas and Seattle but honestly I dont see that happening this year. Crazy enough, my algo has this game 21-20 Bears... I think if Montgomery is a go for CHI this game is much tighter. But if he sits, I dont see the offense for the Bears having as much rhythm.
Kansas City vs LA Chargers (+4): I dont normally add the Monday game into these write ups, but since I will have this team in my parlays and teasers, I decided to add it. I am betting this for only one piece of info I heard. (My algo actually likes the opposite side here) This game is in Mexico City. The elevation there is higher than Denver. The Chargers spent all week practicing in Denver to get their bodies acclimated to the elevation. Kansas City has stayed home. With as bad as the KC defense is, the elevation factor, and 4 points...I will be siding with old man Rivers to 2nd half comeback and cover. (and possibly win!)
Note: We have approx 17u in Bonus money from Refer-A-Friend Bonus. Also, Borgata Sportsbook emailed me this week and offered me 10u in free bets just because I made an account there a year ago and never played. Unlike alllll the other sites in NJ, it does have a rollover. It is 6x, so I will use these free bets on only parlays that way if I hit one, I will have extra funds to hit the rollover without playing it for many weeks.
Going really basic this week. Mostly spreads.
Singles 73-72-2 (+26.78u)
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Early Games (1pm)
Carolina @ Houston (-4): Well, my recent fuck up is the best place to start. :D Carolina looked like a real football team last week. I don't know yet if it was the QB change, or the fact that they played in a dome against a bottom of the league team, but there will be no more sleeping on Kyle Allen. Let the data collection begin! So far all we have is the game last week, and his start in week 17 last year. With this he is 2-0 and has thrown 6 TDs 0 Ints. Looks pretty good, but we cant just mentally give him Cam's job until we see how he handles adversity in difficult match ups once other teams have more film on him. But, as long as he keeps up a solid game managing TD to INT ratio, his stout pass D and above average running game should give him many opportunities to win in his next few starts. Houston came through for us last week with a road dog money line upset of the Chargers. They had to grind it out with rivers going 5-15 on 3rd downs and throwing 46 times but both sides of the ball did their job. This should turn out to be a good defensive battle. I would look for a lot of Sacks in this game as both teams like to send pressure. As long as their aren't a ton of D/ST scores, this looks to play to the under. ***Interesting note: Panthers DE Bruce Irvin will make his season debut Sunday after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury**.** \***
Cleveland @ Baltimore(-7): Our first divisional match up of the day. Both are coming off losses. Cleveland on prime time to an undefeated Rams team and Baltimore to an undefeated Chiefs team. No real injuries to note. These teams seem to have opposite identities at the moment. Cleveland has a pretty decent D, even with some minor injuries, but their offense has struggled to find rhythm. Baltimore has a pretty legit offense, but their D isn't the same as we are used to. I mean, with a Baltimore D of old, this team taking early leads would be unstoppable. But they let Kyler Murray come in and stay within a TD. Personally, I hope Baltimore SMOKEs Cleveland. I want them to take a division lead, get the public against Cleveland. Then watch Cleveland go 1-2 in October with a Loss, Win, Loss. Then they will be 2-5 overall and hopefully we will get GREAT odds on them to win the division. Then they win out the year with a laughable schedule and go 11-5 and 5-1 in the division. That's the plan! :D
Washington @ New York Giants (-3): Another divisional match up. This one with probably zero playoff implications. Barring Danny Dimes somehow being the next Mahommes and scoring 30 points a game, I cant see how this game matters to the league this year. Even IF double D scored 30 points a game, the Giants D is bad enough they still might lose those games. Washington is 0-3. They were just obliterated by the Bears on MNF last week. Keenum had like 12 INTs? This is going to be a battle of spirit IMO. The spirit of desperation by the Redskins vs. the new kid on the block in NY playing his first home game as a regular season starter. I like the way DD came out and handled the pressure. He even did it with Barkley going down (now out 4-6 weeks). But I dont like how bad the Giants secondary is. I think there is a better chance of Keenum making up for his performance last week by coming out strong against this Giants D, than there is of DD carrying the team to another win off pure Spirit. But spirit is a powerful thing! If there was no spread, i would have to side with the Giants...but give me 3 points in what I think is an evenly bad match up? It may swing me to the road dog. For now though, I dont see much edge on the spread and will probably just observe. HOWEVER! I did like how DD and Evan Ingram were in sync. Ingram is +200 to get a 100yd game and he is already 2 for 3 this year. Also, the over is getting bet hard so I look for opportunities for him.
L.A. Chargers @ Miami(+14.5): Well, well, well. One of my favorite spots in the NFL. A West Coast team traveling to the far East Coast to play a 1pm game. The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss to the Texans last week. The algo predicted it, which was nice for us, but the chargers lead for a good while, so I am sure it was even more stingy of a loss. Now they travel all the way to Miami to play a team with probably the worst 3 game start in NFL history. However. TWO things for me in this game. One: Rozen isn't bad. He played well, but his receivers currently drop more balls than they catch. He gave them a chance to take the lead near the end of the 1st half vs. Dallas. They faded in the second half, but they came out strong. Two: If you followed me last year, you will know I love betting against the west coast team in the first quartehalf when they are traveling east for a 1pm game. Their brains think its 10am and they are just a step slower to start the game. On the chargers side of the ball, Melvin Gordon has ended his holdout. He won't play this game, but is expected to play week 5. Austin Eckler will probably be taking his last shot as a starter for a while. I expect him to run with purpose. He also has the opportunity to do it against a Miami D that, well, I don't think I need to say more. :P
Oakland @ Indy(-7): Oakland opened the season strong with a win against Denver but has since suffered back to back crushing losses to playoff teams. Indy is 2-1 but could just as easily be 0-3. Brissett is managing and the Indy D is pretty legit. TY Hilton is doubtful for this game. Darren Waller is just 8 receptions away from beating Antonio Gates for the best 4 game start for a TE in NFL history. This feels like an Indy win, OAK cover type spot but I wouldn't sleep on OAK to get a potential upset.
Kansas City @ Detroit(+6.5/7/7.5): Both teams are undefeated with DET blowing an easy game against Arizona to give up a tie. All three of the NJ sites i frequent have a different line. I am finding this game one of the more difficult to judge. My gut instinct says Patty cakes is out there baking cakes. But I can't understand why there is enough favor on the DET side to keep this game from moving up to -8. I mean, so far over 80% of the spread tickets are on KC. Usually that should call for some more balance. But there was a lot of trouble pushing it through the key number of 7 so that has me weary of the spread. My spot for a bet? Travis Kelce has games of 88, 107, and 89 yards recieving this year. His O/U is 82.5 in a game that has a very high points total. I feel like he is almost always good for a 20yrd reception so really I am looking at a number closer to 65.
New England @ Buffalo (+7): Dildo Time. Two 3-0 teams face for a KEY Divisional match up. It's safe to say there is a very strong chance both of these teams go 4-0 against the other 2 teams in the division. If Buffalo can steal away an early divisional game, they could really give themselves hope and excitement. Unfortunately for them they are facing the Patriots who's defense has yet to give up a TD against opposing offenses and a Patriots offense that is demolishing teams so far. I know the Bills are 3-0 and I normally loooove home dogs, but I just cant take the points here. To be honest, I can see another dildo game. HUGE expectations on the Bills, Brady comes in a wrecks them, dildos everywhere. Here's a tweet that has me thinking for dildos.
Tennessee @ Atlanta (-3.5): The final game of the 1pm slate. The Titans are what they have been in previous years. Inconsistent. They opened the season with a fantastic road win against the hyped Browns. Then lost a close Divisional game to the Colts before following that up with another Divisional loss vs. the Mustache. Atlanta has followed the same pattern of inconsistency of wins by getting blown out in their opener and upsetting the Eagles in game 2 and throwing away an opportunity to beat the Colts in week 3 by giving up an early lead and throwing a Key pick that could have given them a shot at a win. There are two things in this game that will have me side with the road dog. One: The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal. Two: The Titans have had a few extra days to prepare since their last game was a Thursday game.
Afternoon Games (4pm)
Seattle @ Arizona (+5/5.5): Both spreads are available to me, so its just a matter of if I like SEA or AZ. Seattle is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Brees-less Saints and sits at 2-1. Arizona is 0-3. Russel Wilson played spectacularly, but the Saints D/ST won the game for them building an early lead. Seattle tried to battle back and put up a valiant effort but fell short on time. Arizona looked like they could compete in weeks 1 and 2, but in week 3 lost a home game to a win-less team with a backup QB. There are some for sure props to look at in this game IMO. Cardinals are horrible against TEs giving up 131 and TD, 112 and a TD, and 75 and 2TDs. TE Will Dissly receptions and yards have progressed as follows: 1rec-12yds-0tds, 5rec-50yds-2tds, 6rec-62yds-1td. I think he is becoming a key target for Rus this year. They have also been burned by Stafford for 22yds rushing and Jackson for 120 rushing. I like Russ to have many opportunities to get his.
Tampa Bay @ LA Rams (-9): The Bucs are 1-2 coming off a disappointing last second missed 34 yard field goal to give DD his first win in his first start. The Rams are 3-0 coming off beating the Browns. I mean TB has a decent pass rush with Barrett, but their secondary is pretty bad, allowing the Giants to come back and win that game. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the Rams to get rolling on offense. I see them putting up base 27. So the question is, can the Bucs keep up to cover the spread and combined with that, can the Rams hold off garbage time points?
Minnesota @ Chicago (-1.5): A HUGE divisional game with both teams needing the win having lost to Green Bay already. Minn is coming off a home game whooping of the Raiders while the Bears are coming off a road win whooping of the Redskins. Both teams have top ranked Ds and meh Os with the edge going to the Bears and the Vikings, respectively. I feel like this is going to be a heavy defensive game. Cook should finally be held under 100 yards rushing.
Jacksonville @ Denver(-2.5/3): Jacksonville is coming off a win and some extra rest. Denver is still waiting for its first sack, and its first win. On the flip side, Jacksonville recorded NINE sacks last week. This game looks like it is shaping up to be just like the Jax/Hou game. Low scoring. This game might be a candidate to tease Jax up and the Under. As for props, DJ Chark has a TD in every game this season. If he gets one in Denver, he breaks the franchise record. Even thought its predicted a very low scoring game, I like that he is getting 2.6 to 1 to do so!
Dallas @ New Orleans(+2.5,3): This is one of the hardest games for me. The Cowboys are 3-0 and looking good. But they did it against mediocre competition. The saints are Brees-less but are coming off a great D/ST performance and a game managed win for Bridgewater. Though the Saints have complained about bad calls a decent amount and they are the Third most penalized team this year so far, they do have a favorable crew tonight. "The crew working Sunday's game is led by official Carl Cheffers. Cheffers has been a crew chief since 2008, and, according to Payton, has worked 13 Saints games since 2006. The Saints record over that time with this crew: 12-1. " My gut tells me, if Brees didn't get hurt and the Saints entered this game 3-0 with Brees, the spread would be somewhere between Saints -3 and Saints -6.5. Is Brees going down worth a 6-9 point shift? Probably not. Given Bridgewater has a decent record and he's not the only QB for the Saints. Honestly, how is the over getting so much action?! Both teams have legit Defenses. These two played last year with Brees and it was a heavy under hit. That game Kamara and Ingram got nowhere and Dak and Dallas could throw the ball but they had trouble converting in the Red Zone. If a similar game script happens I could see Dallas having the edge this time given they have an added red zone threat in Jason Witton, and the Saints are without Brees. If you're going to bet this game, definitely shop for your number!
Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u]
Parlays: 0-0 [0u] \**I recently received a 10u free bet on Draftkings NJ. All of these parlays are free bets****
Teasers: 2-2 [-1u ]
Thanks for reading. Good Luck to everyone! :D
https://preview.redd.it/6z3pm7zaa3v31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0b4ba60258e70d1ea5457bcd2111b890f81fa60submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Hi all! We have a wonderful Sunday slate ahead, first lets recap TNF.
Singles: 3-0 (+9.78u)
Parlay: 0-2 (-2u)
Notes: This was an amazing little set for us. We were able to go 3-0 and cash in on the Cook to score the first TD @ over +300. I added in those two late parlays with Washington either winning or covering 4.5. Honestly, even after watching the game, I still think plays on WAS were profitable. Before Keenum went down, WAS had a real shot in that game. On to this Sundays games!
Early Games (1pm)
New York @ Detroit (-6/6.5): To start the day, we have a battle of two sub .500 teams. The Giants are coming off a heart breaker (at least to me, haha) They allowed the Cardinals to come in and deliver an upset victory even though the Giants were coming off increased rest and had some key players returning. Detroit's season so far has been surrounded in a cloud of shit. Maybe the first game of the season should have been an indicator of how their season will play out. Look really good coming out of the gate, but overall fail to live up to the start. They will look to halt their recent stumbles against a Giants offence that has 18 turnovers (worst in the league!). On the flip side, the Giants will probably look to use the return of Saquan to exploit the Lions rush D that gives up an average 4.8 ypc (26th) and 140 ypg on ground (28th). Some notable injuries include: Sterling Shepherd is still out for the Giants, and Kerryon Johnson is out for the Lions after injuring his knee in the game last week against the Vikings. Another notable piece missing will be Quandre Diggs. The lions traded him to Seattle this week in exchange for a 2020 fifth-round pick. This game is going to be about the start. My algo is favoring DET by a TD, but DET hasn't beaten anyone yet by more than 3 points and with their recent struggles and poor run D... NY has the potential to get a lead and lean on their run game, I think a pure upset is possible here. Golden Tate is returning to Detroit and has been a steady look for Jones since his insertion into the Lions offense with a steady increase in targets. (week 5 (6) week 6 (9) week 7 (11))
Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-2.5): Here we have the well rested Bucs coming off of a loss in London and then a bye week. While the Titans have had a small roller coaster over the last few weeks. They were sliding and ultimately replaced Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. The change of QB ignited a boost from the offense (putting up 400 last week) that was previously lacking in a downfield attack. Other than the Bucs missing TE OJ Howard, there aren't any serious, notable injuries. So, Tennessee does have Derrick Henry...but, the Bucs have a The BEST run D, giving up only 2.9 ypc and 68 ypg (1st in both!) However, the Bucs pass D is atrocious and overall the Bucs have given up 30+ points in EVERY game this year except one. Emotionally it feels like the Titans should be riding high. The change of QB sparked the offense, and the Titans D has made THREE goal line stands this year, in the final minute of games, for wins each time. The Titans D is also sporting a very respectable 16 ppg given up to opposing offense. (good for 4th in the league) The Algo has TB -1 here so its a very curious spread. Usually in these low spread coin flip spots I either stay away or play both sides in separate plays. Looking props, I would look to Cory Davis and AJ Brown (WRs for TEN) who with the QB change went for a combined 12 catches for 144 yards off only 15 targets last game...and this game they are facing the TB secondary that is giving up over 300 ypg in the air.
L.A. Chargers @ Chicago (-3.5/-4): Here we have a classic battle of two teams who preseason were favorites to make the playoffs. Now, less than halfway through the season, it looks as if both teams will be looking ahead to next year. The Chargers are coming off a really tough loss to the Titans last week where it looked like the Chargers scored 3 times to win the game, but none of the attempts ended up counting. The Bears are coming off a blowout loss to the Saints (who were somehow underdogs even though they have been dominant) The Bears offense just doesn't have it. Mitch looks great when the opposing D drops into prevent and gives him time to find open guys...but other than that, he is really struggling. First let's look at notable injuries:
LAC: Melvin Ingram (hamstring) is expected to return after missing the last three games and (LT) Russell Okung (pulmonary embolism) will make his season debut after experiencing major health issues during the off season.
CHI: Chicago CB Sherrick McManis (concussion) likely will miss the game after being injured against the Saints.
Alright, so if Mitch is going to get back on track and show his owners he deserves to stay on this team, the Chargers D is a good spot for him to do it. The Charges D is near the bottom in almost everything [Comp % (32nd), QBR (28th), YPA (29th)]. They only give up 216 ypg in the air., but that's only vs 185 attempts (3rd fewest in the league). On the other side, the Bears D is still pretty good in every category. They only falter in one, Completion Percentage (69%) which is 27th in the league.
In props we are looking at both RBs for this game. Last week Eckler went: 7 rec, 118 yds and a TD and is tied for 3rd most receptions in the NFL! To add to that, the Bears have given up the 5th most yards to receiving backs. On the other side we have Cohen who gets a ton of opportunity for receptions.
Note: Sooo, an interesting stat I came across: Betting the Chargers on the road vs. a team with a better win, would have you sitting at % 22-4 ATS, and if you had teased them you would be 26-0. This is the Chargers over the last 5 years
Seattle @ Atlanta (+7): Soo, it is currently 2:30 pm on Saturday and as I am writing this, most of the online books here in NJ took this game down. The line was originally floating around 3.5/4, now it is only available at 7 on two sites. I am assuming this is because ATL activated their QB3 indicating Ryan has a great chance of being inactive. In injury news: "
The Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant will miss his third straight game with a toe injury. Rookie Kendall Sheffield will get the start in Trufant’s place. The Falcons will also be without guard James Carpenter (knee) and running back Ito Smith, who is in concussion protocol.
For Seattle, defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (oblique) and safety Delano Hill (elbow) have been declared out. The problem for the Seahawks is that they have six players listed as questionable, including recent acquire, Quandre Diggs.
Lets start with the obvious, the Falcons D. Atlanta run D is actually pretty good, holding opposing RBs to under 4 ypc and 70 ypg. But, their secondary is trash, bottom of the league in almost everything: QBR 31st, ypg 28th, comp % 29th. The Seattle D is not the defense of old. They average giving up 25 ppg and 360 ypg. However, they are top 10 in takeaways this year with 12 and the ATL offense has 12 turnovers already. On the other side, even with losing to Baltimore last week, SEA O ranks in the top 10 in: qbr 2nd, ypg 10th, comp % 8th, and ypa. Going against that ATL D, the edge definitely sits with SEA. In props, the look is on Austin Hooper. He has had minimum 4 receptions per game, is averaging over 7, and should get an increase in his looks with ATL trading away their WR2 in Sanu.
Denver @ Indianapolis (-4.5/-5): This is one of the most curious lines to me. The algo has the Colts at only -4. Public perception should have the colts at -7/7.5. Yet the line opened at 5, briefly moved up to 5.5 and has been slowly falling to 4.5. I feel like the Colts should rock this game, but the lines are red flagging me otherwise. Lets jump into the numbers. Other than Carl Davis, there are no real injuries to note. In terms of sacks, Brissett has been sacked only 7 times this year, while Flacco has been sacked a whopping 23 times! Even with the recent loss to the Chiefs, the Bronco's D is pretty stout, giving up only the 5th best passer rating and they are 3rd in pass ypg and 3rd in ypa giving up less than 200 pass ypg. The Indy D ranks 19th in rush yards allowed per game, 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric and 28th and 30th in tackling and run defense respectively according to Pro Football Focus. But, the Bronco's offense sucks ranking 29th in ppg and 25th in ypg. Likely to give them less of an offensive threat is the trade of Emanuel Sanders to the 49ers. If I am going props in this game it would have to be Lindsey(Indy rush D is not that good) or Sutton (he is already the number 1, and the number 2 was traded away this week)
Every time I review this game, the logic tells me that Indy should win and keep the train rolling. But something inside keeps screaming take Denver. Probably nothing, but Im gonna note it :P
NY Jets @ Jacksonville (-6/-6.5/-7): A lot of lines available for this one, which is funny to me...as you'll see, I and my algo both favor the Jets. The Jets are coming off a sha-lacking vs. the Patriots where they were completely shut down. Jacksonville is coming off a 10 point win, but the game was much closer than the score shows with Jacksonville trailing into the 4th where they scored 18 points. Darnold had an issue with a toe, but it looks as if he as go. Other than that, there are 3 linebackers out for Jacksonville, and 1 possibly for NY. The Jets get to see the return of TE Herndon. As we all know, the Jax offense starts with their run game which is pretty good, gaining 5.1 ypc (3rd), and 140 ypg (5th). But, the strength of the Jets defense is their run D. They held pats to 2.2 ypc, and overall they only give up 3.3 ypc (2nd) and 92 ypg (11th) The Jets offense hasn't done much, but they have only started Darnold in 2 games (not including the Pats game because their D seems to be an outlier) and he is 1-1 and could quite easily be 2-0 in those games (losing the first one to the Bills comeback in week 1) It will be facing a Jax D that is pretty good. Their pass rush has a 30% pressure rate (6th), 21 sacks (4th), and a 9.2% knockdown rate (3rd). The algo has Jax @ -9/10 here. But does anyone really feel that confident laying a TD with Jax right now? Based upon the number match ups, this looks like it is going to be a grind of a game with both teams struggling for points. In those predicted under type games, I almost always favor the large amount of points. This is a game that deserves some underdog action.
Philadelphia @ Buffalo (-2): The Eagles are coming off a big divisional loss to the Cowboys on Prime Time, while Buffalo is coming off a win, but a win they had to fight back to get. They were expected to easily handle the Dolphins last week but were taken by surprise as Miami took an early lead. They fought back to take the lead and held on by returning an onside kick for a TD. As usual, lets start with the injury report
For the Eagles, everyone here is OUT:
Lets start with Philly. This is their fourth road game in five weeks and they have allowed an average of 31.5 ppg in all 4 road games. Their defense has given up 24 or more points in 6 of 7 games this year and the only game they didn't give up at least 24...was vs. the Jets with Luke Falk at QB. In all 4 of their losses they have had a turnover. Clean games have not been easy for them. They will be facing a Buffalo D that is top in the league. They only give up 15 ppg (3rd) under 300 ypg (3rd) and their pass d is top 5 in ypg, passer rating, completion % and ypa. Combine that with the NFL's seventh-ranked rushing attack (135.8 ypg) with Frank Gore gaining 4.5 ypc. However, Philly is known to stack the box and stop the run. They were gashed last week, but overall only give up 90 ypg on the ground so far. With Philly likely to stack the box and force Buffalo to throw, I will be looking at Brown and Beasly for props, going against a Philly secondary that is laughable. My only concern in this game is my algo has BUF -8.5 and the Vegas spread is WAYYY off from that. This may have me avoiding a side in singles when i would normally feel Buffalo here.
Cincinatti @ LA Rams (-11.5/-12/-12.5): Curious that the spreads are all over the place. However, 11-13 are really dead numbers so not much info to be gained from the multiple spreads. Cincinati looks worse than MIA. They looked decent for 3 quarters last week, but just couldn't hold it together. The Rams took the opportunity to play the Atlanta D and easily hopped back on the win train. This game will be taking place in London. The Bengals arrived on Friday and the Rams spent the week in ATL after last weeks game, and flew to London on Thursday night. No real injuries that need to be talked about. There are a few players out for both sides but nothing should effect the game much. So the Rams D had 5 sacks last week and is 4th in the league in QB pressure. Cincy has already been sacked 24 times this year. The add on of Jaylen Ramsey saw immediate impact as he had 4 tackles and a forced fumble in his first game with the Rams. The Cincy D has allowed an average 102 QBR and 8.4 ypa. While the Rams offense scores 27 ppg (7th) and gains 372 ypg (12th). Another interesting stat: Cincinnati's minus-9 turnover differential is the third-worst in the NFL. The algo only has LA as -9.5/-10.5 so i will probably avoid spreads in this game. For an interesting prop look, check out Darrel Henderson. The RB2 is out and in a gamescript where the Rams are leading by more than a score, they might look to rest Gurley for more difficult situations. This may lead to increased looks for Henderson.
Arizona @ New Orleans (-12/-12.5): Whoa! Big movement and big news. This line opened at 7.5 and has now moved all the way up to 12.5 in most books. This is in connection with the announcement that Brees will be returning this Sunday to lead his team into the bye week. 1st question... why? Bridgewater is 5-0 in his absence. They are facing what should be one of their easier opponents, and they head into a bye next week. Maybe they want Brees to see some game time speed, given it should be one of their easier games. This way he doesn't come out cold in two weeks... I dont know. Either way, it seems like a curious change to make. The Saints have Smith, Cook and Robinson out. While the Cardinals Allen and Foster with a whole list of questionable.
The Saints D is amazing so far. Currently they haven't allowed more than 260 total yards in 4 straight games and they are 34% on 3rd down, and have 20 sacks (5th). In the first four games, Arizona allowed 20 sacks (all losses or tie) but in the last 3 (all wins) Murray has only been sacked a total of 3 times. My Algo had this only as NO -4.5. Now that Brees is in and the line has moved so much, this game may be an avoid game. In props, I may look to Murray's rush yards. He should be pressured a ton in this game, and when he is pressured he likes to move.
Oakland @ Houston (-6.5): Oakland is on their 5th straight road game and coming off a loss at GB. They actually had a chance in that game. Carr fumbled in the end zone and it caused a 14 point swing that took away any momentum Oakland had. The OAK D has given up 21 points in 5 straight games and the pass rush has only a 14 % pressure rate (32nd), a 19 % blitz rate (4th lowest) and 10 sacks (28th). If they dont get to the QB, it might be all Houston as Watson is 7-0 in games when he doesn't get sacked and he is sporting 8.3 ypa through the air this year. Along side him is a pretty solid run game lead by Carlos Hyde gaining an average 66 ypg, 4.2 ypc. With the Texans rush offense as a whole gaining 4.9 ypc (5th) and 134 ypg (8th). The Algo has this as Hou -9.5 so this actually makes me suspicious of the spread. Any bets in this game will come down to the start/sit of Josh Jacobs. Without the threat of him in the backfield, the Texans D will be able to drop extra men into coverage, but if he plays, I would look for a closer game that leans towards a shootout.
Carolina @ San Francisco (-4.5/-5/-5.5): These next three are my most anticipated games of the slate. This game features the undefeated 49ers hosting the streaking Panthers. For Carolina, no notable injuries for this week. For the 49ers its the same as before. (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), and (OT) Joe Staley are all still out. So to start with we see Garoppolo is 5-0 with eight touchdowns and three interceptions in five home starts with San Francisco. They just added Emanuel Sanders to the roster which should ultimately boost their already good 7.9 ypa on offense. Garoppolo will be going against the Panthers’ secondary that was outstanding early in the season but has surrendered more than 350 yards in consecutive games. The SF rush D that has only allowed 4.1ypc (12th) and 90 ypg (7th) will have its hands full this week going up against Christian McCaffrey who has 923 yards rushing so far. An interesting stat that has me leaning Carolina in this one: CAR blitzes the fewest of any team in the league...YET, they lead the NFL in sacks. I will be shopping my line here and lean with the dog.
Cleveland @ New England (-10/-10.5/-11): This is going to be a fun match up to watch. But it doesn't appear it will be a good game. There are no real injuries to note and you could make a case for CLE by saying they are coming off a bye and are desperate for a win vs. a NE team that is coming off a short week. But with my model, that doesn't appear to be the case. The Cleveland offense averages 231 ypg (16th) and 7.5 ypa (15th) but has 15 dropped passes (3rd )and 11 ints (32nd). They have 1 in every game... Also, Baker has turned the ball over 12 times this year (tied for the most in the NFL) going against a NE D that has 18 INTs right now. This looks like a game where the Patriots will utilize their mutli-headed run game as Cleveland has been gashed for 154.0 yard per game on the ground. The one shining light for the browns D is they have 19 sacks. However, 9 of those sacks have come from Myles Garret. Also, here is a video I came across where it is detailed how to disrupt the play of Baker Mayfield. I feel like if I can find this, so can the Patriots.
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay @ Kansas City(+4.5/+5): This one has the biggest line movement of the slate. Originally, it opened KC -4, since the Mahomes injury, it has moved to what it is now. The only other notable injury is DeVante Adams will still be out for GB. Starting for KC should be Matt Moore, who replaced PM during the Denver game. He did fairly well, coming in and going 10-19 117 yds, 1TD and a 90 QBR. KC last played on Thursday, so they had a few extra days to prepare for this one. I feel like with Matt Moore starting at QB, a lot of KC offensive stats are devalued. KC defense has 20 sacks (5th) and will be facing and offensive line in GB that has only give up 12 sacks. The packers rank 11th in offense but it has mostly been due to the passing game. They have failed to get more than 80 yards rushing in 4 of 7. They may look to turn that around this week against a poor KC run defense that gives up 5 ypc (30th) and 150 ypg (29th). I dont expect Matt Moore to have too difficult of a time. He still has a lot of star power on the offensive side of the ball and they will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in total defense and has given up 420 or more total yards three times. However, the team is ninth in scoring defense with 13 takeaways. My algo had GB -2.5, before the PM adjustments. I dont think Moore deserves the 8-9 points Vegas is adjusting for, but even field goad pushes GB to -5.5. Overall for props the model is predicting both of GBs running backs to have increased opportunities on the ground and in the air.
Singles 46-53-2 (+3.03u)
Parlays: 1-3 (+43.42u)
Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!!
|ESPN GAME CENTER|
|CAROLINA PANTHERS||11-5, 9-7-0 ATS|
|NEW ORLEANS SAINTS||11-5, 9-7-0 ATS|
|Spread Consensus: NEW ORLEANS BY 7|
|GAME TIME AND LOCATION:|
|Mercedes-Benz Pooperdome - 4:40 PM January 7, 2018|
|WEATHER FORECAST: Forecast: The New Orleans Saints call themselves a football team, yet they play inside like children so the weather doesn't affect them.|
|Stadium Type: Dome|
|NFL Broadcast Map|
|Broadcast Station FOX|
|Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy "I bet he'd like that one back" Aikman|
|Where to Watch|
|NFL Red Zone - Provider Participation Required|
|NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams|
|Radio Broadcast Information|
|Need A Ticket?|
|/PANTHERS TICKET THREAD|
|Head Official Tony Corrente|
|NEW ORLEANS SAINTS||96%|
|NEW ORLEANS SAINTS||65%|
|ELO Rating||One Week Change||Make Divisional Round||Make Conf Championship||Make Super Bowl||Win Super Bowl|
|Points/Game||22.7 (#12)||➡||20.4 (#10)||Opp Points/Game|
|Yards/Game||323.7 (#19)||➡||336.5 (#17)||Opp Yards/Game|
|Points/Play||0.354 (#13)||=||0.325 (#13)||Opp Points/Play|
|Yards/Play||5.0 (#19)||⬅||5.4 (#22)||Opp Yards/Play|
|3D Conversion %||41.89% (#7)||⬅||41.04% (#27)||Opp 3D Conv %|
|4D Conversion %||45.45% (#16)||➡||33.33% (#8)||Opp 4D Conv %|
|RZ Scoring % (TD)||53.85% (#17)||➡||52.08% (#14)||Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)|
|TDs/Game||2.5 (#14)||➡||2.2 (#12)||Opp TDs/Game|
|Points/Game||28.0 (#4)||⬅||20.4 (#11)||Opp Points/Game|
|Yards/Game||391.2 (#2)||⬅||317.1 (#7)||Opp Yards/Game|
|Points/Play||0.448 (#2)||⬅||0.343 (#18)||Opp Points/Play|
|Yards/Play||6.3 (#1)||⬅||5.3 (#17)||Opp Yards/Play|
|3D Conversion %||37.63% (#19)||➡||37.86% (#13)||Opp 3D Conv %|
|4D Conversion %||80.00% (#1)||⬅||35.00% (#10)||Opp 4D Conv %|
|RZ Scoring % (TD)||58.18% (#8)||=||47.73% (#8)||Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)|
|TDs/Game||3.2 (#2)||⬅||2.1 (#8)||Opp TDs/Game|
|Outlet||Rank||Last Week||Weekly Change||Notes|
|7||7||-||It’s not the worst thing to lose on the road to a Falcons team fighting for its playoff life. But it was a lost opportunity, considering the Saints lost. The Panthers would have been NFC South champs with a Week 17 win. It’ll be tough to win this week at the Superdome, a place the Panthers lost 31-21 a month ago.|
|7||7||-||Opponent winning percentage: .539; tied for the fifth-hardest. The 2017 Panthers proved that you don't need to be pass heavy to win. They went 11-5 while averaging 192 passing yards per game. That's the fewest passing yards by an 11-win team since the 2015 Vikings.|
|7||7||-||Recap: The Panthers actually entered Sunday with a chance to capture the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. But that opportunity disappeared when the Vikings won earlier on Sunday. No matter, because Cam Newton and the Carolina offense stalled at Atlanta. The seven-year pro completed less than half of his throws (14-of-34) for only 180 yards. He found wide receiver Devin Funchess for one touchdown but also served up three interception. Carolina’s defensive unit only surrendered one touchdown in the game but the Falcons did roll up 371 total yards against the league’s seventh-ranked defensive unit. Postseason Preview: The Panthers are in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years. But for the first time, they will begin their playoff run on the road. On Sunday at 4:40 pm ET, Rivera’s club returns to the Superdome for the second time in six weeks looking to avenge a pair of losses to the Saints this season. Offseason Priorities: Ageless defensive end Julius Peppers signed a one-year contract to rejoin the team this offseason. Could he return for a 17th NFL campaign? The bigger priority is defensive tackles Star Lotulelei, who could be a candidate for the franchise tag.|
|9||3||↓ 6||The offense was unproductive Sunday in Atlanta, as QB Cam Newton was off target in a 14-for-34, three-interception performance. That won’t be nearly good enough against the Saints, who will demand the Panthers put forth a decent scoring performance to keep pace. TE Greg Olsen and RB Christian McCaffrey must be major factors. The defense is good enough. It’s all about whether Newton and the offense will come around.|
|7||6||↓ 1||They've only managed as many as 200 passing yards twice in the past 10 games. Might not be explosive enough to make a deep playoff run.|
|6||6||-||The Carolina Panthers are big, they're physical and their defense is going to be a handful for anyone it comes across in the postseason. The problem is there isn't anyone on offense to be scared of other than Cam Newton. Having to go to New Orleans is a postseason problem because the Saints handled the Panthers both times they've faced them this season. Can Carolina find ways to consistently move the ball and make explosive plays against the Saints defense? If not, the Panthers better dial up some creative runs for Newton, because their fate will rest on him.|
|8||7||↓ 1||This team is almost as inconsistent as the team below it. Cam Newton's play is confounding. Every time the media says, Look out, the Panthers are letting Cam be Cam and they're going to make a run! ... Carolina lays an egg. Newton was erratic on Sunday, continuing a chain of on-again, off-again performances. Look no further than his in-game passer ratings over the seven games prior to the matchup with the Falcons: 71.0, 120.4, 59.8, 107.5, 64.9, 128.0 and 65.4. I mean, if you're in Charlotte, his play is like Fury 325 at Carowinds. So I guess that means Newton dominates this week, right?|
|7||5||↓ 2||They didn't play well on defense the past two weeks -- giving up nearly 700 yards passing -- and that has to be concerning heading to New Orleans.|
|Team||Overall Record||Division||Division Record||Conf Record||PF||PA||Streak|
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Second half of the season is here! We have a wonderful Sunday slate, but first lets recap TNF.
Singles: 2-2 (-1.25u): What an interesting game! The opening drive was deceiving, 1 36 yard run, and 1 timely penalty on 3rd down gave AZ an easy drive. Then it looked like the game was going to go as the world thought with SF running away. Then AZ somehow flipped the momentum and it was rather scary. We missed the spread and Suggs hurt his knee early limiting his reps. Bosa was nowhere to be found in this game, but in the 4th quarter run for the Cards, Murray was able to hit his prop on just 2 runs.
Parlay: 0-0 (0u) None
BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) None
SBBDLS: 0-0(0u) None
Teasers: 0-0(0u) None
Really Early Game (9:30am)
Houston @ Jacksonville (+1.5/+2): Today's slate starts off with a very early game taking place in London. Interesting, my algo has this as a 23-23 game with Houston's offense being a little better but Jacksonville's D being a little better. This is supposed to be a "home game" for the Jags, and this will be there 7th straight trip to London to play a "home game". Currently the most notable injury is J.J. Watt. He has a torn pectoral muscle and is out for the season. Other than Watt, the only Texans notable still on the injury report is Will Fuller. As of Thursday, he is a DNP but his status is still unknown. The Jags have a few line backers sit from practice Thursday, but no notable injuries.
Starting with the Texans offense: rushing they are pretty legit averaging 4.8 ypc and 133.6 ypg. Facing them will be a Jacksonville rush D that ranks in the middle to bottom half of the league. Giving up an average of 4.7 ypc and 108 ypg. What the Jax D does well, is the pass rush. So far this year they have 29 sacks (3rd) While the Texans are doing better protecting Watson compared to previous years, he has still been sacked 24 times (25th in NFL) On the opposite side of the ball, we have a decent Jacksonville offense going up against a mediocre Texans pass D. (28th against the pass giving up 277 ypg in the air) The Texans are giving up the 13th fewest fantasy points to the running back position but, that was pre-Watt injury. It should be interesting to see if the defensive changes can be taken advantage of by Fournette.
Overall, Wembley Stadium looks like it could be a Texans home stadium, dark blue walls and red seats. Personally this looks like a game that has play on both sides potential. With this game I could see playing teasers with both sides if you can get the numbers over 6.5. I easily see this as a tight match up and therefor I see it as a candidate for the infamous, double tease-middle burger.
Sidenote, I thought this was a curious tweet: https://twitter.com/HoustonTexans/status/1190038970090082304?s=20
Obviously he is flashing an "L" for London. But if you think about, it kinda looks like he is predicting an "L" as he boards the plane. :P
Note: There is RLM on this game.
Washington @ Buffalo (-10.5): This is a game that probably won't be watched much. Dwayne Haskins starting for WAS with Colt McCoy as backup. Case Keenum, Montae Nicholson and Chris Thompson won’t play. The only injury to for the Bills is linebacker Maurice Alexander who will be out. I mean the Bills should win this game. But do we trust them to cover this big of a spread? Especially after we saw how they played against Miami. Josh Allen has been average at best, throwing 9 TDs, 7 INTs and averaging an 80.4 passer rating and 213 ypg passing. But if he is going to have an above his average game, this is the team to do it against. The redskins pass d gives up an average 100qbr (23rd) and 73 comp % (31st). In this game however, I think the Bills will focus on their running game. The Bills run offense averages 4.9 ypc (4th) and 130 ypg (8th). Frank Gore (15,170) needs 100 yards to pass Barry Sanders and move into third place on the NFL's all-time rushing list. This may be the game he gets it in, but I would look for some of his action to go to Singletary as the Redskins are pretty bad against receiving backs. Overall, the Redskins run defense is pretty bad averaging 4.4 ypc (19th) 138 ypg (28th). I like the Bills obviously, but 10.5 is a lot. The Bills overall offense is 24th in scoring and not beaten a team over .500 (close game vs pats) (They beat the jets giants benglas titans dolphins with a combined record of 7-31) If you play DFS, this is a good RB/DST stack game.
Tennessee @ Carolina (-3.5): Still no Cam. Kyle Allen remains under center for Carolina. This is actually a really tough one for me that has the feel of a defensive/running battle. The Titans have 34 sacks allowed (most in NFL) and Car has 30 sacks (2nd) and a 26% pressure rate (7th). Conversely, the Panthers given up 23 sacks and the Titans have recorded 22 sacks (9th) The Panthers have been held under 300 total yards in three of their past four games. Some of that is their reliance on CM. Some of it is probably Kyle Allen. (As he plays more, more film is developed on him and he should regress to his mean) However, this will be an important game to see what he's got. The Panther's number one weapon, McCaffrey, should have a rough go as the Ten rush defense is averaging giving up only 96.5 ypg (11th) rushing. On the other side of the ball we have Tannehill. He has led game-winning drives late in both of his starts since taking over for Mariota. While also completing 73.1% of his passes. The Panthers do have 5th ranked pass d, but the are also sporting the 27th ranked rush d giving up 135 ypg and 5 ypc. This should be heaven for Derrick Henry whom the Titans rely on consistently. The Algo has Car -1. This one is close, but I am leaning road dog and the under. I will be looking at Henry and Jonnu Smith's props.
Note: There is RLM on this game.
Chicago @ Philadelphia (-4): Ok. So last year in the playoffs the Eagle's upset the Bears when the infamous double-doink game happened. Last week, the bears lost a last second game to the Chargers (Yay us with LA money line) to another last second doink missed field goal. The question is... Is that summarizing this team until changes are made? OR did the double doink last year and the doink last week combine to make a triple doink, thus breaking the Bears curse?!?! Since my algo doesn't yet have the capabilities to factor in the emotional swings of doinks and NFL curses, we will look to the numbers for guidance. Last week it looked like the Bears had a chance to end their losing streak and they gave themselves that chance by finally committing to the run. They ran Montgomery for 135 yards and a TD at 5ypc. However, the same game plan might not be as effective here as the Eagles rush defense ranks 9th overall giving up only 3.9 ypc and 90 ypg. On the other side, the Bears rush d is even better, giving up only 3.6 ypc and 86 ypg. For the Eagles it looks as if LT Jason Peters (knee) and LB Nigel Bradham are doubtful-out. However, a big boost for the Eagles when stretching the field and taking double teams off Ertz will be the return of Deshawn Jackson. My algo has this @ PHL -3.5. I see them winning the majority of times, but I wouldn't sleep on a Bears cover here. My algo gives them at least a 27.5% chance of winning out right and 4 points is a lot to cover when your secondary can't cover anyone and the only team of note that the Eagles have beaten is Green Bay. There schedule does open up though... They play the 3rd easiest schedule for the rest of the season combined with a bunch of home games.
Note: For props I will be looking at Ertz (Jackson back takes doubles off Ertz who has been limited the last few weeks) and Allen Robinson ( Philly is giving up 42.5 FP to the WR position this year (30th) and they rank 20th vs. the WR-1. He has 7, 16, and 9 targets in his last 3 games and he faces an Eagles' secondary that he torched for 10 catches, 143 yards and a touchdown in the wild-card game. The only thing working against this prop is Trubitky has 0 td passes in 4 of 6 games...
Minnesota @ Kansas City (+3.5): This one has had no line all week. As the week has progressed it has gone from Min -1 all the way to Min -3.5. I am assuming this all has to do with the status of Ma homey. So far he is questionable, but if the spread crossed the "3", I'd say we can assume he is more of a no go then a go. No matter who the QB is, they aren't going to have an easy go of things. The Vikings D have given up more than 21 points only 1 time and it ranks third in scoring defense (16.5 points per game) and fifth in total defense (313.9 yards). While the KC pass rush has been stepping up (25 sacks now) and they do have offensive weapons, it is their run D that will be tested this weekend. Dalvin Cook is leading the Min rush offense that is averaging 4.9ypc and 160ypg and he will be facing a Kansas City’s defense which is near the bottom of the league against the run (145 yards per game) and allows 4.9 yards per rush (3rd most in NFL). The algo has this as a PK but that's with Mahomes. This may end up being a fade on the spread give the uncertainty surrounding PM, however I will definitely be looking at Cook's props.
New York Jets @ Miami (+3.5): Im not gonna touch this game. If you want action on it I think there are two favorable props. Bell for the Jets. Parker for Miami. Both are facing poor defenses. As for the spread, I can't ride the Miami tank train this week after they covered vs WAS, gave the bills hell, and started out 14-0 against the Steelers (before throwing the WAS and PIT games). And I can't ride withe the Jets right now just due to inconsistency to perform. NEXT!
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (+1/-1): This is one of the more curious spreads. My algo has Pitt -5! (that's with all the QB switches and ups and downs) Every single Jersey site has PIT +1.5/+1 EXCEPT Foxbet which has them at -1 and it looks like the Vegas lines have Pit -1 or PK. As for injuries, there are two very notable. For the Colts, TY Hilton will be out and for the Steelers, RB James Conner will be out. Two offensive weapons. With Conner hurt, Jaylen Samuels will be returning to face a Colts rush D that gives up 4.8 ypc (25th). On the flip side it will be Marlon Mack and that fantastic IND offensive line vs a Steelers D that vs the rush is pretty good, only giving up 3.7 ypc. Another challenge for the IND offensive line will be the Steelers rush D that so far has accumulated 26 sacks. (Colts have only given up 11) Personally this game is all over the place and feels like a home team or fade. However with a low projected total (40.5) and the spread bouncing between -1 and +1, this is a another potential game for the double-tease with Cheese. If you can get both sides above 7, I like it!
Note: There is RLM on this game.
Detroit @ Oakland (-2.5/-3): This is the raiders first home game since Sept 15th. My algo has this as OAK -3 so I am glad to see the market movement confirming it, but I wish i took the spread at the beginning of the week, haha. This looks like it should be a shoot out type game with both defense ranking in the bottom half and both offenses having weapons and a top half of the league QB. A lot will hinge on the health of Josh Jacobs who is questionable, but looks to be a go. He leads the league's seventh-ranked rushing attack with 620 yards and will be facing a Lions run d that gives up an average 4.7 ypc and 131 ypg. The Raiders don't have to fear the run as the Lions rank 26th in the league with 3.6 yards per carry and are tied for second-to-last with two rushing TDs. However, the Det offense is explosive and contains some bright stars. Kenny Golladay has had 123 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants and has been targeted at least eight times in all but one game this year. Also, Amendola should be matched up against Lamarcus Joyner who is graded as one of the worst coverage CBs in the entire NFL. He is giving up a 68% catch rate. As a whole, the Raiders pass d is 29th in passer rating, 29th in ypa, and 30th in ypg. There is heavy favoritism towards the over from the algo.
Note: I have already mentioned Jacobs, Galloday, and Amendola for prop plays but another good look in this game is Darren Waller. He has 8+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games and DET is 24th vs. the TE position.
Tampa Bay @ Seattle (-5.5/-5): This is one of my most curious match ups of the day. My algo has TB as a -0.5 favorite. That is quite a discrepancy from the Vegas lines. Along with the OAK game, this game is favored by the algo heavily on the over. SEA has been very meh at home this year. Their three home wins have been by a total of 4 points to some very suspect teams (CIN, PIT, LAR). TB has put up points against some very good defenses this year. 6 of their 7 games have been against Top 10 defenses and they're averaging 27.5 ppg vs those 6 teams. Normally, Seattle would look to it's running game to control the tempo. It's no secret that their offense has trouble clicking without establishing the running game. Unfortunately for them, TB has one of the best running defenses in the league. They are only allowing a league best 3.0 ypc. They've shut down very good running backs like CMC, Barkley, and Gurley. TB also has the Highest blitz rate in the NFL right now. This should make for some good opportunity for Wilson to take off and launch bombs against the TB scoring defense that gives up 30.3 points per game their 31st ranked passing defense that gives up an average 285.9 yards per game. For TB on offense, Winston has thrown seven interceptions in the past two games but he also got 400 and 301 yards passing in those games. As for injuries, there are some notables for Seattle. They will experience a massive change on their offensive line with veteran center Justin Britt out for the season with a torn ACL in his knee. Also, safety Tedric Thompson (shoulder) will undergo season-ending surgery, and recent acquisition Quandre Diggs (hamstring) is unlikely to play. Two interesting notes about Seattle: They have only one win over a team with a winning record. Five of its six wins are by one score. Also, underdogs have covered in 11 of Seattle's last 12 games. This games deserves some definite sprinkle on the money line and almost all receivers are good prop looks for both sides.
Cleveland @ Denver (+4): Ughhhh, this is a tough one. My Algo has Den -1, but that was with Flacco under center. He is out and the Bronco's will be starting Brandon Allen who was drafted in 2016 by the Jags but has yet to see an NFL snap. This one is tough because while I instinctively want to take Cleveland after hearing they are facing a backup QB getting his first start...but then I remember that QBs aren't everything and there have been a few backup QBs to come in and crush it this year (Bridgewater, Brisset, Allen, Mustachio). The Bronco's also have a decent running game lead by Lindsay (although he is on the injury report right now with some wrist action, if he is out it will be Freeman leading the way) and they will be facing a Cle rush D that ranks 29th against the run giving up 143 ypg. This should be another tough spot for Baker Mayfield who has thrown 6 TDs to 12 INTs (yes 6-12, not 12-6....). He will be facing a Denver pass D that gives up less than 200 ypg through the air. I think this game will run through Nick Chubb. Denver is 14th in rush D but gives up over 24 fantasy points a game to RBs. As this spread climbs higher, I like the CLE side less and less.
Green Bay @ LA Chargers (+3.5/+4): This is another game that has upset potential written all over it. Almost 90% of the public is on Green Bay right now, money line and spread. Any time that happens and the line barely moves...seems to be a good spot for the dog. Even though Devante Adams is back, I expect GB to try and control the game (given they aren't playing from behind) by utilizing Arron Jones. LAC have the 24th ranked rush defense and they are giving up 122.8 RY/G (23rd). They are also 31st vs. pass catching RBs. Also, he has 8, 4, 7 and 8 targets in those last 4 games and facing a team that is struggling to cover the RB out of the backfield. On the flip side, GB is 15th vs. TE and giving up the 27th most points to the TE position. Hunter Henry has 6, 8 and 9 targets in his last 3 games and looks to have a good match up for props.
New England @ Baltimore (+3): Lucky us, the NFL scheduling gods saved the best game for last! First let's start with this interesting tweet by @jamisonhensley
Since 2008, Ravens are NFL-best 12-1 in primetime home games.
In home primetime games under John Harbaugh, Ravens have ...
-Won 10 in a row, longest active streak in NFL
-Outscored opponents, 341-171
-Plus-13 turnover differential
The Ravens head into this game with the #7 offense but they have played the 3rd easiest defenses. While the Patriots come into this game with the #1 defense but they have played the #1 easiest offenses. As everyone is probably saying, this game will probably come down to the Patriots ability to stop the run. (Both the RBs and Lamar Jackson) If they can do that, it will force Jackson to use his arm and while his stats are decent, they are skewed. Half his tds this season have still come from the dolphins week 1 and in the month of October he has thrown only ONE touchdown to three INTs. Personally I am going to ride with Big Bill but be advised, there is RLM on this game. 2/3 tickets are on NE, yet the spread has gone from -4 to -3.
Notes on the day: From @SureBetss on twitter:
“On 6 point teasers the Patriots, Packers, 49ers, Lions, Colts, and Saints are a combined 41-4 this season (31-13-1 ATS combined) 🔥”
Also, I referred two neighbors in my building this week and juiced up my free bet bank! :D
Singles 57-60-2 (+11.41u)
I am posting this now because there is a 9:30 game in London. There may be an edit or two as the night goes on.
Get the best Northern Colorado Bears v Portland State Vikings betting tips for NCAAB. Free betting tips posted by the bettingexpert community. This site contains commercial content. Decimal odds. Decimal odds . Fractional odds . Percentages . Moneyline odds . English Danish . German As good as the Bears defense has been all year, the Vikings defense is just a small step behind. Minnesota is 5-2 at home this season and desperately looking to win so that they can get into the playoffs. The Vikings opened as the favorite for this game. Depending on the NFL betting site that you use, Minnesota was favored by 4.5 to 6 .5 points. Betting Lines and Predictions. MyBookie has a moneyline on this game of Minnesota -115. The Vikings are favored by a point and the over/under is 37. With the Bears’ offense being awful, and the Vikings being without their two top running backs, the under is probably the play here. The Bears had the most recent laugh in this rivalry, effectively ending the Vikings' playoff chances a year ago by sweeping their two-game 2018 series -- after Minnesota took both games in 2017. Betting Prediction for Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings on December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM ET. Free Betting Prediction: Minnesota will Win , Cover the Spread , and the Total will go Over . The Chicago Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Minnesota Vikings and 3-0 SU in their last three meetings as well.
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