5 stocks set to soar from the U.S. sports betting boom

SwC Poker: #1 Bitcoin Poker Site

SwC Poker is the largest Bitcoin online poker site in the world.
[link]

The bosses of three of the UK’s largest gambling companies have infuriated MPs by pulling out of a meeting at which they were due to face questions about their efforts to reduce the dangers of online betting, the Guardian has learned.

submitted by ManiaforBeatles to worldnews [link] [comments]

I haven't left my house in 45 days and my House Painting business is Booming

What's up Entrepreneur it's been a while since i've dropped in for a post, hope you all are well.
I want to preface this by saying I've done a fairly decent job of documenting my business through posts that can be found on my profile, in short, I've been running a painting business now for 3 years.
My goal from the very beginning of this pandemic was to keep my team busy. I didn't care about the profit, I would've broken even if it meant making sure my guys had the option to work. I'm pleased to say that still to this day we're fully staffed and have been making it through this storm. Due to having a newborn, I haven't left my house, I'm writing this to showcase how I've been able to run my painting business at close to full capacity.
Contrary to the popular subcontractor model, I opted for employees. Although more difficult, times like this prove it to be the better decision overall. They're really making this entire process easy because over the last 3 years we've built such a high level of trust and understanding. I have full confidence in them to perform our jobs to the standard of which they would be performed if I were assuming my normal duties of doing job sight visits.
Company background:
Our residential house painting company has 10 employees, and our highest grossing year on paper was $921,000 (last year). the prior years were around $560k and $280k. We had our largest month of production in March of this year of $104k.
I've always been big about helping other contractors develop systems in their business, and, after taking my own medicine I'm reaping the benefits of this tremendously. Our teams are broken up into two teams. One of 4, one of 5. Our model is simple, each team has a project manager responsible for overseeing the jobs, reporting to me, and collecting the payments.
There's been a lot of concern with contractors about the lack of business, however, I've been marketing heavily with HomeAdvisor ever since the inception of my business - the natural thing to do for most business owners is to retreat in times of uncertainty (like this pandemic) but, knowing that this would create a worm hole in the lead distribution for me to capitalize on, I ramped up my spending and have been getting a STEADY flow of house painting leads since.
April has been a BUSY month despite everything that has been going on. We will produce $75k worth of jobs, with another $40k on the books for next month. 50% is new business that has been generated remotely.
With a steady flow of marketing, we're averaging 6-8 estimates for exterior painting PER WEEK. This is extremely surprising to me, but I'm definitely thankful.
Here's how i'm doing it:
Marketing & Sales Adjustments
Production Adjustments

Lessons & Advice
If you're a business owner and in a similar predicament, you have to adjust.
You have to be creative, and you have to get uncomfortable. If you have a team counting on you, my first piece of advice is to price out jobs in a way that guarantees them work. Don't worry about hitting high margins, the focus should be to keep your schedule full.
If you're a potential business owner, employees are a great move.
Building trust and a foundation of loyal people to come to work for your company and to buy into your vision proves to be the best decision time and time again.
There's always a market.
It's about how easy it is for those interested in your product or service to find you. In my specific case, I know a very large majority of the contractors in my area shut off their HomeAdvisor leads. Customers are telling me that I'm the only one who's reached out. I'm betting when everyone else is holding, and i'm getting the rewards.
Thanks for reading, share some ways you've been adjusting in the comments below! If you care to follow me on Instagram, I'm sharing more of my journey there: IG/TradeThrive. I'm also going to be sharing on Paintingbusiness.
submitted by Byobcoach to Entrepreneur [link] [comments]

Random Musings From An Experienced Developer And Reader Of This Sub

I'm a developer with 7-10 years of experience who works for one of the FANG. I've grown from working at a small shop to one of the largest in the world so I have experienced a wide range of what this profession and this industry has to offer.
I've seen a lot of angst and confusion on this subreddit so I thought I'd share my two cents on what I believe maybe attitudes/beliefs that will serve you well in your career.
The idea of being passionate about your job can be used to exploit you
A lot of us come into this industry with stars in our eyes and dreams of doing big things. There's a whole bunch of shady employers and hustlers out there who want to hood wink you into working for a pittance or building some shitty idea. Maintain a healthy skepticism and do detailed research into the prevailing conditions / wages in your area and specialty.
Never hesitate to switch once you realize you are being exploited. And I can bet that atleast a few reading this are not aware that they are in fact underpaid. The word for passion in German means those who love to suffer. I would much rather look at it as learning to find what you enjoy and leaning into it which brings me to ...
Enjoying the process of building software makes you happier and more successful in the industry
I have seen enough people who struggle with the job because they simply do not enjoy the process of sitting in front of a screen to write code that makes pixels dance. Obviously this is not something everyone enjoys but those who do will always outperform those who don't. I'm surprised at how this can be so controversial.
It's worth it to take a minor pay cut to work on things you would enjoy than things you would have to force yourself to. If you don't enjoy the work look into saving aggressively and retiring early for your own mental health.
You also need to be constantly learning and relearning. I work much more than 8 hours a day maybe 10-12 if you count all my extra reading and tinkering also as work. If you don't like coding that is fine but these are the people you will be competing with and you should be aware of it.
I plan to do this for as long as someone will pay me to do so and this is viable because ...
The tech industry is and will be the key driver of economic growth and innovation going forward.
You might read a lot of gloom and doom in general but if you keep your software skills sharp you will always be in demand. The tech industry is an absolute rocket ship. There is a reason why the NASDAQ is up even in this pandemic. It's because tech will grow more than the rest. Entire sectors of the economy remain to be digitized like medicine, education along with newer opportunities like VR and massively social realtime online experiences (Zoom+Fortnite+Discord). There is yet more untapped potential in conversational interfaces and robotics. The convergence of all these will continue to deliver results.
Tech is very important in how the world functions which brings me to ..
Get more serious about your field and what the stakes are
We may still be writing shit HTML JS pages but what they do is now a lot more important. The consequences matter for our privacy our economy and daily lives. A lot of us still don't absorb the seriousness of our jobs. You may one day end up working on a payment system that processes millions of dollars an hour. You don't want to be your current self who rolls out of bed at 9 and goes into work stoned. And you can get there but ....
A lot of you are passing up life changing opportunities because of an aversion to DS+Algos / Leetcode
Algo+DS is a fascinating subject in its own right that also happens to be very rewarding financially. Its much easier than the online hand wringing would suggest and many of you are more than capable of learning it enough to pass a FANG interview in a few months. Its well worth the effort. I have also found my colleagues who have come through this process to be very good compared to most places I've worked at. So if nothing it doesn't fail atleast at FANGs.
Wanting to put in the effort leads me to ..
Those who get ahead are those want to get ahead
I remember the tale of my first company. My boss was there for 7 years and was said to have put in his resignation twice. His boss was there for 10 years and was said to have tried to resign 4 times. Those who get promoted have one thing in common - They ask for it a lot. They are not ashamed of asking for raises or negotiating their fair share. They actively maneuver themselves into the best projects and market themselves well. All this is not a lot of effort. Just a matter of emphasis. However its easy to get lost in all this and forget that ...
Even if you win the rat race you're still a rat
Do not ignore the long term factors in your well being like your health and finding good companions at both home and in life. If you mess this up your career will also suffer in turn which brings me to ..
Use the current crisis to reset
Develop - Better routines, exercise, sleep and work habits. Learn to keep notes and todos and work on sorting your life out in general which may allow you to ...
Raise your ambitions
Software skills have a lot of leverage. Some day you may make software that makes a real difference. Either on your own or at some company. We manipulate pure information which is free and storage is practically unlimited. Coding + any other skill = magic.
If you need any tips / guidance feel free to drop me a message. I'll try to get back when I have time.
submitted by elephantrypus to cscareerquestions [link] [comments]

Easy reading breakdown of DKNG as it soars

Disclosure: This is not a comprehensive breakdown, and it's not meant to be. Just some key points and context that I thought you'd find interesting.
DraftKings is technology stock meets gambling
Three main products: Daily fantasy sports or DFS, Sportsbook, iGaming
DFS is OG DraftKings. Fantasy sports are where players make fantasy teams and battle each other to win money. However, sportsbook is where the money is: betting actual money on actual sports against the house. iGaming is basically an online casino with some online games you can gamble on, in addition to the classics like blackjack and Russian roulette.
In addition to DraftKings, there’s also SBTech, the online gambling technology company that had an arranged marriage as part of the DKNG merger.
Landmark Case
In 2018, the Supreme Court knocks down the federal law prohibiting sports gambling throughout the United States. Pandora’s box is open. Each state has to decide what it wants to do with gambling on its own.
The Path to Legalization
Map of Sportsbook legality
DFS legality is more widespread
Currently, 36% of the USA population lives in a state with some form of legal gambling and 24% in a state with legal online gambling. The population living where DraftKings is live or going live is only 13% of the country. There’s a lot of ground to cover.
NJ is the posterchild for sports betting legalization at the moment, and it’s DraftKings promised land. Generating 30% of DraftKings total revenue, it is a testament to the money waiting to be made if sports betting is made fully legal.
The Risks for DraftKings
Regulation: Gambling is a money-maker, but it’s also a social disease. States will want to cash in with taxes of 6.8 to 36% but it will be a tough battle to make it happen. And that battle will unfold state by state. Just like with the marijuana industry, the fate of the market is undeniably shaped by how legalization unfolds. It could end up being a niche hobby in select states, or it could end up like gambling in the United Kingdom, where there’s a gambling shop on every corner. Or there could be a huge gambling market, but one that is monopolized by the States exclusively. If they’re going to allow gambling, why not take all the profits, right?
Competition: FanDuel and DraftKings once considered a merger before the FTC played tough. Now, together they own 95% of the DFS market in the USA with a slight majority going to DraftKings. However, there will be fierce competition as new states open up, and missteps could be stifling for either company in the early stages. The lifeblood fueling this battle? Cold hard cash burned up in advertising and incentivizing dollars. Maybe it’s not as bad as Uber since gambling has a chance at being profitable, but if you don’t like to see money burning, think twice about entering the online sports betting market over this coming decade.
Technology: The hardware of gambling is a liability. Paying for the bandwidth needed at the exact moment of a match when everybody checks their bet is expensive. Payment processing, user validation, server hosting, sports data, app store placement: these are all areas of vulnerability and cost that you can minimize but can’t eliminate. With SBTech in the fold, having complete vertical integration is the aim and strength of DraftKings.
The House Always Wins…Usually: Writing bets means risk. Thankfully, the DFS is player versus player, so DraftKings always wins, taking something like EDIT: up to 15% of what players put in. It's a bookkeeper's wet dream. But Sportsbook and iGaming have classic gambling risks which should be fine over the long-term.
The Good Side (and Oh God They’re Beautiful)
Growth Potential: It’s a technology stock. The PE Ratio is over 600. When you buy DraftKings, you’re buying the dream of an America where gambling is as American as the Ford F150. A matured Sportsbook market in the USA would be around $20 billion, about $85 per adult. It’s a beautiful untapped (and non-existent) market with lots of money waiting to be taken. With Coronavirus, the slice of the sports betting pie that goes digital is bound to be more than ever before, if the sports happen
COVID19: The only thing that can stop a sports betting company from making money is getting rid of sports. Thankfully, new sports like Table Tennis, eSports, and a host of other betting topics have allowed DraftKings to get by. With lots of cash on hand ($450 million plus) and a monthly burn of $15 million, there’s enough to weather the storm. And if sports reopen with empty stadiums, fans may turn to online gambling to get their authentic sport experience.
Turnaround Time: The largest expense that DraftKings has is conquering new markets. Every time a state opens up, it’s a massive investment. That’s why analysts and executives don’t think DraftKings will run net positive for years to come. However, DraftKings experience in New Jersey has shown an average turnaround time of about two years is all it takes to recoup their initial investment when entering a new market. Some pretty tasty data to have coming in.
The Numbers
Revenue was up to $323 million in 2019 from $226 million and $191 million the years prior. NJ made up $86 million of that, growing by 8.5x after sports betting legalization in late 2018 to make up over a quarter of revenue in 2019.
Net loss however was $146 million in 2019 from $76 million and $73 million the years prior. Cost of Revenue was $103 million, Sales and Marketing was $185 million, Product and Tech was $55 million, and General and Administrative was $124 million of that. DraftKings has never been in the green. They attribute the accelerated burn in 2019 to growth in new markets so whether its aggressive or reckless is up to you. To be fair, if you’re investing in this stock, you should be expecting them to burn every single dollar they get at this point.
Average monthly unique players was up to 684k in 2019 from 601k and 574k with the average revenue per monthly unique player up to $39 from $31 and $28. As of March 31st 2020, there were 720k monthly unique players with average revenue of $41 per. So continued growths in the midst of the early Coronavirus pandemic. Q2 will be revealing for certain.
The stock just skyrocketed to $34+ yesterday meaning a market cap of over $10 billion and a PE ratio of over 600. Take it for what it’s worth to you.
Some Quirks
DraftKings revenue is seasonal. Q4 is the best when the NFL and NBA coincide, with Q3 and Q1 being roughly equivalent, and Q2 basically being garbage. With COVID mainly taking out Q2, perhaps there’s hope for sports by Q3 and Q4 to hit those high-earning months?
Controlled Structure: You get 1 vote for 1 stock, but CEO and Founder Jason Robins gets 10 votes for each stock. So whatever you do, he has 90% of the voting power. Good for long-term growth in a highly reactive landscape, but being powerless is never a fun feeling.
SBTech offers B2B solutions for other gambling companies looking to offer online sports betting and iGaming, so there’s that added benefit. In fact, the share of B2B has been growing from 1% in 2018 to 5% in 2019, so some diversification is happening.
DraftKings’s ticker symbol DKNG reminds me of Donkey Kong
submitted by PersonalBrowser to investing [link] [comments]

How I Got My 7 Person Startup Featured In Entrepreneur Magazine

If you have the word “Co-Founder” or “Chief ______ Officer” in your LinkedIn title, there’s a good chance your inbox gets flooded with pitches from all sorts of sales people. It doesn’t even matter if the title is legit or not.
As a former sales person myself, I love getting these pitches.
I enjoy getting to cringe while reading the ultra-terrible ones, but I also love responding to the ones that are actually very good.
I received the summarized pitch below from a PR guy a while back, and I have to say his message fell into the latter of these two categories.
“Hello David,
Thanks for connecting!
Not sure if you took a glance at my profile yet but we help companies like yours get featured by some of the largest media outlets in the world including Forbes, Inc, Entrepreneur, Bloomberg, NASDAQ and dozens more. We do this on a pay for placement basis so you only pay if we can get you quoted and featured…
If this is something you’d be interested in discussing further let’s jump on a short 20 minute call so I can learn more about your brand and accomplishments and decide if we can get you featured!”
The message is very straightforward, and it’s not even that personalized. But he plays into my ego perfectly.
Getting my fledgling startup featured on one of these publications would be cool, I think to myself. I’m also genuinely interested in figuring out how he does this for companies.

So I take the call.

After about 30 minutes of chatting, I like the guy, and I think I have his system figured out.
By simply reading between the lines of our conversation, I come to the conclusion that this guy likely has relationships with a bunch of “contributors” that write for these various publications. I’m guessing that if he thinks you or your startup has an interesting angle/story/or product, he can get one of his contributors to do a feature, thus landing you a piece in Forbes, Entrepreneur, etc.
Problem was that he wanted $5,000-8,000 for a landed feature.
Operating a young company that is cautious about its resources, I passed on the offer.
But hold up… This wasn’t going to stop me from trying to get my own feature in one of these publications.
It only motivated me and piqued my interest further. Hell, if this guy can do it so easily, why can’t I get my company featured myself?

Okay, time to figure out how to do this

At this point the wheels in my head are spinning, and I’m starting to brainstorm how to do this.
I hang up the phone, and simply Google, “How to get featured in Entrepreneur Magazine”.
The very first result in Google is a blog post from Jason Feifer, the Editor in Chief of Entrepreneur Magazine himself, explaining how to get featured.
Just what I was looking for.
You can simply read the article yourself, there’s also a video, but in summary it was all about how you have to be unique, pitch value, and put yourself in the shoes of the editor.
This seems fairly obvious, but in reality people are lazy, and I bet it is actually quite rare to receive a truly personalized, great pitch.
The big takeaway that I got from this article is that the editor in chief does in fact take stories from one-off pitches. But… your pitch has to be good. It has to catch his attention.
Game on.

Cold email time

I finish watching a couple more videos where Jason (Entrepreneur Magazine guy) explains how to pitch him.
I then open up Gmail and copy/paste his email address into the TO: field.
It strikes me now as I start writing my email how I bet so few people actually watch these videos before sending him an email. I’m going to use that to my advantage. Use it as flattery.

My angle

Now I need to come up with two things:
  1. Something to grab Jason’s attention. AKA something that he truly cannot ignore when the email hits his inbox. I need him to at least open my email.
  2. An interesting spin on my startup that Entrepreneur could use as a story. This has to be truly unique and interesting to readers, otherwise it’ll go straight to the trash.
I come up with my attention-grabber almost immediately.
Heck, someone just offered me an almost guaranteed spot in Entrepreneur for five grand. I’m pretty confident this is something that an integrity-filled editor in chief would like to know about.
The angle on my startup takes a bit more time, but we do have something very unique: how my co-founders and I met.
Long story short, we met on Reddit.
My co-founder Lucas posted about some cryptocurrency tax software project he was working on at the time. I thought it sounded like a cool idea, so I cold emailed him and told him how I would market the project. Our company, CryptoTrader.Tax, was born from this simple interaction on Reddit of all places.

The Email

With all the pieces in place, I take about ~30 mins to come up with this email below:
Subject: I was quoted $5800 to get a feature in Entrepreneur
Date: Tue, Jul 23, 2019 at 11:46 AM
To: Jason Feifer
From: David Kemmerer
Hey Jason –
I just got off the phone with a PR agency that works on a pay-per-placement model, and they guaranteed that they could get me a feature article for my startup in Entrepreneur for $5800.
This got me thinking, what’s stopping me from just reaching out myself? These editors are humans too, and they’re looking for great stories for their audience – why can’t I simply build relationships with them directly?
This led me down a rabbit hole where I found your video here on how to get featured in Entrepreneur – the key being to approach it from your (the editors) perspective, and have a unique, compelling story.
So here goes nothing.
I started a Cryptocurrency Tax Software company a year and a half ago that now has tens of thousands of users, more than 1 billion dollars of cryptocurrency transactions processed, and has partnered up with some of the biggest names in the industry like Intuit TurboTax to bring cryptocurrency tax compliance to the mainstream. My co-founders and I are all under the age of 25.
But, that’s not interesting to you – that’s just me bragging and trying to build social proof.
What is interesting is how my co-founders and I met.
My co-founders and I met on Reddit.
A simple reddit thread talking about how difficult it is for cryptocurrency traders to file and report on their taxes turned into my partner saying in the reddit thread that he wanted to start working on tax software for the crypto world. I loved the idea, so I DM’d him on Reddit and told him I’d love to help.
Flash forward a month later, I flew up to his home in Kansas City, MO and we decided to start CryptoTrader.Tax. Thanks Reddit!
I think hopeful entrepreneurs are always wondering how they can meet co-founders. The story told in the media makes it seem like you have to go to prestigious schools like Stanford to meet qualified, ambitious people. This is just not true, and we are a testament to that.
I don’t think there is one way to do it, but I think meeting people online is going to become more and more common over the next decade, and I think people need to realize that it isn’t weird to cold outreach to someone you find interesting. You never know who you might meet!
I’d love to chat further with you, and thanks for taking the time to read this long email.
Best regards,
David

23 Minutes Later…

Subject: RE: I was quoted $5800 to get a feature in Entrepreneur
Date: Tue, Jul 23, 2019 at 12:09 PM
To: David Kemmerer
From: Jason Feifer
Hey David,
Thanks for reaching out. Can you tell me who just quoted you pay-for-play? That’s absolutely against our guidelines, which means they’re paying one of our contributors. I want to find out who it is so that we can end that relationship.
I appreciate the pitch here—you did exactly as asked! Hmm, let me think on this one. I don’t think there’s a whole piece to be done on finding a cofounder on Reddit, but I do like it as the possible seed of something.
Thanks,
J

As suspected,

the attention-grabber worked. It got Jason to open my email, read it in full, and give me a response. It even built some rapport as we went back and forth for a bit after this.
After leaving the conversation at “let me think about this”, I honestly didn’t expect anything else to come from this.
I managed to build a bit of a relationship with Jason through this email sequence—which is valuable on its own, but I suspected that it was unlikely that we’d actually get a feature.

Two Months Later

Two months later I received the below note from an editor at Entrepreneur.
Subject: FWD: I was quoted $5800 to get a feature in Entrepreneur
Date: Wed, Sept 25, 2019 at 2:29 PM
To: David Kemmerer
From: Entrepreneur
Hi David,
Hope you’re well! My editor Jason forwarded your note my way. Please know we take these kinds of things very seriously.
But anyhow! I’m actually writing because we’re working on a small story about unusual ways entrepreneurs have found their cofounders, and I’d love to chat with you about your reddit connection. Do you have 20 minutes to hop on the phone next week?
Thanks!
Stephanie

Success

So it turns out my pitch paid off in the end. The December 2019 issue of Entrepreneur Magazine came out with a feature discussing unique ways co-founders meet.
Among these features was the story of CryptoTrader.Tax, a cryptocurrency tax software startup that was growing rapidly after the founders had all met on Reddit.
--
Link to the original story here >> signup for my email list to get more marketing hustles like this :) https://davidkemmerer.co/entrepreneur-magazine/
submitted by stratguy56 to Entrepreneur [link] [comments]

S&P 1700 within 6 Months


This is a new post after some interest in a comment why I believed the S&P is going to 1700.
Update 3: I am going to limit my answers in the comments guys; as the post becomes more popular it is becoming more diluted with snark etc. I don't expect anyone to follow my opinions; I just want to share one aspect of why I am making the trades I am. I maybe wrong. Random walk and all that..
Original Disclaimer: This is based on historical precedence and we are in unprecedented times but, with history as our guide a strong argument can be made for the S&P to decline to a level that is currently inconceivable. I have disclosed all my positions near the bottom.
Update 1: Slightly long; happy to be challenged in the comments, it is late in the UK (2am) so may tidy it up and add more references and charts tomorrow. Update 2: Have expanded the post to answer as many comments and requests for references wherever possible and tagged in the requestors.

Intro: Are we in a recession?

If you believe so, or that we are heading into a recession then there are four things needed to support a genuine rally out of a recession

We are missing 2 out of those 4 criteria; the overwhelming monetary and fiscal policy (world-records) are compensating for lack of positive indicators and volatile and bullish pricing.

What do you mean by pricing?

It can be argued that the current price of stocks is not discounting for the acute and likely chronic harm to consumer sentiment and spending power. For example; the UK clothing retailer Next Group closed their bricks and mortar stores (share price increased 4%) then they cancelled all online shopping (share price increased 3%) and finally they cancelled all orders with their supply chain (shares leapt 12.8% during the rally.) There is the massive amount of second, third and fourth order effects that this one company does to the UK economy (and Turkish factories). Suppliers, shipping, design, marketing etc all cancelled and the staff furloughed.
This is one example but the indexes are currently full of similar examples and some analysts are ringing the alarm bells.

Lazard Asset Management are concerned that the pandemic “will persist longer than many investors suspect and that the economic damage will be deeper and potentially longer-lasting”.
Reddit is quick to mention that stonks only go up but there is some truth to that sentiment at present since any negative factors are dismissed as being priced in and all positive factors are heralded as a cause for stocks to rally. If priced in was accurate then we would not see record-beating market rallies back to back. 10% volatility swings over 48 hours is the very definition of not priced in.
There is evidence to suggest that, well, the bullish sentiment is wrong and mainly because it is retail investors being taken for a ride whilst funds re-balance and offload.
Retail traders "buying the dips" is normally a contrarian signal, meaning that it's time to sell. This section is for u/lntoIerant in response to a comment.

Edit to answer some comments about this portion thus far.

Do retail investors move the market?
Are retail investors buying in greater volumes?
Are retail investors dumb money?

What does this have to do with the S&P dividend and the EPS?


Major indexes are comprised of stocks that pay handsome dividends; normally 2% yield a year. The companies have reached their limit of growth (HSBC haven't discovered 5 million new customers and Shell are not finding new fossil fuels) so investors hold the stock for income-seeking reasons.
The FTSE 100 was priced in to generate £89 billion in dividends for 2019 and £90 billion+ in 2020. That has largely collapsed.
The only companies that pay dividends are those taking on debt to do so like Shell. And they have; a 10Bn credit line to maintain dividends. The Bank of Englandhad to slap 5 UK banks from issuing dividends at this time. That means that their primary valuations as income-generating stocks are questionable...
...especially since the dividends are not expected to return to the 2020 levels for another 10 years now. Edit to add: This portion is taken from the market report by BNY Mellon. You can see the chart here. The analyst is John Velis of BNY. Thanks to u/flash_aaaah_ahhhhh for prompting me.

“By 2021, the market expects dividends per share for the S&P 500 to be down to under $38 per share (a staggering 41 per cent drop from recent highs of approximately $63 per share) and then to start slowly rising again. Going out 10 years to 2030, the expectation is that dividends will just about recover to pre-Covid-19 levels.”

Main body: Onto the S&P

In 2021 the market expects the dividends per share for the S&P to be reduced to $38 per share. That is priced in and common knowledge.
That is a 41% drop from the recent highs of $63 a share and seems alarming for income seeking investors since we are not expected to recover to those prices for 8-10 years. Source.
But DataTrek have noted that we are still currently trading at 21X the trailing 10 year earnings of $122 a share.
Dividends per share normally don't fall as far as earnings per share. But they are inverted at present.
For the S&P to be trading at 2,650 level (or even higher) it means the market does not believe the pandemic or recession will have any long-term damage. That puts us squarely at odds with items 3 and 4 in our list of factors needed to exit a bear market.

Talk to me about 2008!

Thanks to u/mister_woody for asking for more data.

In other recessions, including 2008, the dividend price per share drops approximately 12-15% but the earnings per share drop by considerably more; as much as 85%.
That means that in 2008 financial crisis and subsequent bear market; the dividends per share dropped by a lower percentage amount than the total index value drop.
You can see that in this chart here.

Right now, we have the reverse. Dividend share drop in this market is 41% (which is chilling) and market drop was approximately only 30% and rallying heavily back to the mid-20's only. That makes no financial sense unless the assets were being propped up by buyers...

If the S&P follows the same playbook at 2008-9, then we would expect to see levels of around 1400 at the bottom but that seems extremely bearish expecting that this crisis is worse than 2008.
If previous indications hold true, then we would expect the S&P to drop by approximately 50-60%ish at the true bottom to reflect the 41% decrease in expected shares plus additional discounts and negative market sentiment.
In reality, we are probably likely to pull back to between 13X and 15X trailing average which puts the S&P between 1600 (low side) and 1800 (high side).

You are putting a lot of faith in a re-run of the 2008 crisis

I am. No doubt about it. After October 2008, stocks fell for another four months, piling up 40% of losses before the recently ended bull market began in March 2009.

New market indicators

Since I wrote this post, the DJIA was up over 4% and closed down on the day.
Thank you to theTwitter feed of Jim Bianco for this: Since 1925 (95 yrs!), up more than 4% and closing down on the day has happened only one other time ... Oct 14, 2008 (Tsy Sec Hank Paulson forced the banks to take TARP money). The S&P 500 was up 3.5% at the high and closed down on the day. Since April 1982 (daily H,L,C began) has happened three other times...Oct 3, 08, Oct 14, 08, and Oct 17, 08.
This mkt continues to trade like Oct 08. It was six months and another 25% down before the low.
Bezinga are also playing up the 2008 similarities.

Why is bullish sentiment so wrong?

The negative reports are so wildly negative that the almost defy belief. We are dealing with insane numbers way beyond our traditional frame of reasoning. This is topped only by the insanity of the scale of quantitative easing. Less than a year ago, a small movement in the non-farm payrolls would lead to a 2-3% move in the markets; now we are hitting 700K jobs lost, a truly ugly number and the market rallies hugely. Future economic students will study this to try and understand what was happening.
In the space of weeks the majority of the Western economies have swung to being effectively state-sponsored, centralised economies and no one really knows how to unwind these positions.
It is impossible to reconcile being a bull with a centralised state economy and blue-chip stocks that refuse to pay dividends but the share price remains at the same levels as when they paid a 2% yield.
The UK forecast is for the deepest contraction since 1900. Business surveys have shown activity crashing faster in March than during the financial crisis. The Office for National Statistics has published experimental research on the impact of Covid-19 on the economy.

With entire swaths of the economy having shut down “traditional forecasting methods become irrelevant”, warned Chiara Zangarelli, economist at investment bank Nomura.
Michelle Girard, economist at NatWest, said that while there was huge uncertainty about the precise magnitude of the contraction in gross domestic product in the second quarter, “there is little doubt that it will be off the scale”
That is not a bullish sentiment. It means markets are acting irrationally since fundamentals are being dismissed as priced-in. In reality; nothing is priced in.

Disclosure


Spreads
Equities
Currency

Edit to add: So, your entire thesis is totally destroyed if companies keep paying dividends?

Yes.
In a nutshell.
But something else will be destroyed; the western taxpayer and future growth.

CEO said 'every pound we receive [in rates relief] will be invested in ensuring Tesco is able to support British shoppers...' That is tax payers paying a subsidy to a free-market company for the ability to shop...and also...
Mr Lewis said that the needs of savers and pension funds also needed to be considered in the debate around dividends. “We’ve thought long and hard about our responsibilities here . . . we are in a strong position to pay out for the benefit of those people

Edit to add: What about the FED and stimulus


u/tauriel81 and u/aliveintucson325 and u/100PERCENTYOLO_VEQT
OK - to truly test my own assumptions; here is my argument AGAINST my position.
The Fed have not quite printed money as Reddit loves to meme. They have issued liquidity and central banks worldwide have allowed banks to relax their requirement to hold reserves of cash. That injects money into the business world by allowing lending and borrowing to continue. It also reduces theoretical risk since the models are back within tolerance.
When the time comes they will remove the credits gradually without causing hyperinflation. They do this by paying banks not to lend back into the system by holding a % of their assets at the Federal Reserve. So they pay the banks but the banks keep the deposit at the Fed and don't pass on the liquidity to potential borrowers..gradually and sustainably.
https://www.aier.org/article/powells-new-monetary-regime/
That means the borrower of the future (home purchasers, entreprenuers etc) will have very few credit facilities available so RIP to the long-term economic growth.
We also have unprecedented government support for citizens. The largest social security welfare plan since WW2, especially in Europe.
If you believe that the Western economies can weather this storm using the bridging devices by central banks then it pays to dollar cost average into the market and keep buying the dips as a retail investor.
Lots of buoyant news from European nations and China about the slowing pandemic is overwhelming the negative leading and lagging economic indicators about economic data.
If you believe the economy can return to normal within 36 months, then it pay to be bullish and invest.
If you are day-trading, swing-trading or short-term options trading then the overwhelming market moves are likely to crush people as the system flexes under lots of volatility. You are also likely prioritising the negative news and technical analysis in your filter bubble and de-prioritising the positive news particularly when that news is fiscal or monetary policy since those things are dry, boring and incomprehensible half the time.
So you miss Fed backstops critical bankingi and instead hear UK Prime Minister in intensive care.
If you want to know what is going on...

Decide where you making a prediction. Plan your trade, trade your plan.
How do the FED take money back out of the economy?
They FED purchase the security initially to then sell it back to the asset-holder later. So the balance of credit-deficit merely swaps but by paying a small premium on the excesses that they hold, they can cushion the inflation or deflation of the currency.
So, they effectively give the bank liquidity and then remove that liquidity later by passing the asset back...but also provide a small premium to cushion the blow; 50% of the premium is then held on Federal Reserve books so that the market is not flooded with new money.
The FED previously reduced their balance sheet from $4.4 trillion to $3.7 trillion but it remains to be seen if they can unwind a position of this size.

TL:DR



submitted by DongusMcLongus to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Unusual Option Activity 06/08/20 EVRI, FTCH, EOG, PDD

Recap – Despite a huge gain on Friday, the SPY continued the bullish trend and ended up 1%. The Momentum plays on Friday were BHC and HPE. They finished at +6.55% and 4.37% respectively. If you played these in the after-hours market Friday you should have made out pretty well. Unfortunately, my limit orders were never filled. The Classic UOA picks of SABR and APA collectively did okay. SABR was quite a bit higher in the morning at 11.50 but proceeded to drop for the rest of the day ending at -1%. If you had a reasonable take profit that should have hit. The second pick, APA, ended up 9.77%.
Site update – Economic Calendar has been updated to be more useful. This week I am going to focus heavily on the resources area so be sure to check it out. Eventually it will be a database with the most useful sites both free and paid that could help you to make the best decisions possible. There is also an email subscribe button now (it has yet to be tested).
Here’s the Option Activity Summary for today –
June 8th, 2020 Option Activity Fast Facts (Stocks >$6)
Highest Multiple over Daily Avg (with ADV >5k) – IVR with 11x it’s ADV of 20,489. 202k calls traded and 31k puts.
Ticker with most contracts Traded – GE with 591k contracts traded and 2x it’s ADV of 285k. 462k calls traded and 128k puts.
Largest Put to Call Ratio (w/ Option volume over 10k) – IEF with P/C ratio of 70 and 159 calls and 11k puts.
Largest Call to Put Ratio (w/ Option volume over 10k) – SONO with 33 C/P ratio. 37k calls and 1.1k puts.
1. Ticker : FTCH
Spot Price : $15.58 +1.55, +11.05%
Company Summary (from Yahoo Finance): Farfetch Limited, through its subsidiary, Farfetch.com Limited, provides an online marketplace for luxury goods in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in three segments: Digital Platform, Brand Platform, and In-Store. The company operates Farfetch.com, an online marketplace, as well as Farfetch app for retailers and brands. It also offers web design, build, development, and retail distribution solutions for retailers and brands. In addition, the company operates two Browns retail stores in London; one Stadium Goods retail store in New York; and two New Guards Off-White stores in Las Vegas and New York. Further, it operates approximately 50 New Guards franchised retail stores. Farfetch Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Special Considerations : None
Next Earnings date: 08/06/2020
Option Information :
Today’s Option Volume : 28,438 Average Daily Volume : 3,433 Multiple over ADV:8
Total Calls : 27,462 Total Puts : 976 C/P Ratio : 28
Calls at ask % : 45 Calls at bid % : 24
Puts at ask % : 11 Puts at bid % : 52
Notable strikes : JUN 19 ’20 $16 strike with 18.7k volume today. Previous OI of 575.
My Impression : FTCH is presenting at the Deutsche Bank dbAccess 17th Global Consumer Conference 2020 June 11th, 2019.It had a large spike today, but has been as high as $16.59. The Calls at ask % looks pretty bullish to me. This is similar to FLEX, BHC, and HPE. This is mostlikely buying the rumor and selling the news. Looks solid to me, I bought shares AHs.
2. Ticker : EVRI
Spot Price : $7.88, +.90, (+12.86%)
Company Summary (from Yahoo Finance): Everi Holdings Inc. provides technology solutions for the casino gaming industry in the United States, Europe, Canada, the Caribbean, Central America, and Asia. The company operates in two segments, Games and FinTech. It offers gaming products, such as classic mechanical reel games, video reel games, core HDX, Empire MPX and the Texan HDX, wide area progressive games, and slot tournament systems; and sells player terminals, licenses, back office systems, and other related equipment. The company also provides Cash access services; Casino Cash Plus 3-in-1 ATM, a cash-dispensing machine that enables ATM cash withdrawals, POS debit card cash access transactions, and credit card cash access transactions; check verification and warranty services; CashClub that provides gaming establishments with a single dashboard interface to streamline credit and debit card cash access transaction processing and check warranty transactions; fully integrated kiosks that provide multiple functions to the casino floor; and other integrated kiosk solutions. In addition, it offers Everi Compliance, a suite of compliance software to assist with anti-money laundering regulations; Central Credit, a gaming patron credit bureau service; non-ATM terminals that perform authorizations for credit card cash access and POS debit card transactions; database services; and an online payment processing solution for gaming operators in states that offer intra-state, and Internet-based gaming and lottery activities. The company was formerly known as Global Cash Access Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Everi Holdings Inc. in August 2015. Everi Holdings Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Special Considerations : Earnings 06/02/2020
Next Earnings date: 08/4/2020
Option Information :
Today’s Option Volume : Average Daily Volume : 2,537 Multiple over ADV : 9
Total Calls : 22,837 Total Puts : 293 C/P Ratio : 77
Calls at ask % : 48% Calls at bid % : 24%
Puts at ask % : 11% Puts at bid % : 16%
Notable strikes : JUN 19 ’20 10C with 12.9k vlm and 4.94 OI. 3.28k VLM at the 12.5C same expiry.
My Impression : Calls at ask % looks very bullish. 9x ADV. With the run up of PENN and DKNG I am amazed this fell through the cracks. It’s 52 wk high was $15. I don’t see any news on briefing to warrant the sharp increase.
CLASSIC UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY –
Summary : Friday’s picks HPE and BHC ended up pretty well today. Keep in mind, both of these stocks have conferences coming up. BHC has the Goldman Sachs 41st Annual Virtual Global Healthcare Conference June 10th and HPE has the conference tomorrow. Keep this in mind if you held through today. Buying the rumor and selling the news is usually a safe bet.
Regarding the momentum stocks, EVRI and FTCH look solid to me. With the recent run up of gambling stocks EVRI seems all around solid for a shorter-term hold. I bought both EVRI and FTCH in after hours. As for the Classic UOA stocks, I’m not playing either of these but will likely do a call spread on TSLA tomorrow.
Thanks for reading.
DISCLAIMER – These are my observations that I have made at the end of each day and trades that I am considering placing or watching. I am not responsible for your financial losses if you follow any of these trades. As always, do your own due diligence.

Edit: If you liked the post please don't forget to upvote and or leave a comment!
submitted by noentic to options [link] [comments]

[PHO Sunday] - Aleph-Bet games Exchange & Update, Summer 2012

♦ Topic: Aleph-Bet Games Exchange & Update, Summer 2012 In: Boards ► Games Silicon_Lily (Moderator) Posted on May 31st, 2012:
Send/Receive
With termination of some experimental programs (see Murderhall, in subsection below), the data exchange for the summer cycle will revert back to prior limits. In the video game category, there will be 200GB of content sent, 200GB of content received. Games were selected with an eye to cultural value, popularity, and keeping to the allocated bandwidth restriction.
Prime your mouse & WADC!
Sent:
Lonely Knowing (50G) - The surreal and emotional game voted 1st by Earth Bet gamers, a cultural landmark, Lonely Knowing was written and created by a tinker construct, the A.I. Bitter Tuna, who was in turn created by PRT tinker Root.
Protea Southeast (50G) - Created by a South African game company, Umkhoba, Protea Southeast was created in homage to Japan and is subtly rooted in Japanese styles. Described by some as a more focused Earth Aleph style game, with a defined 20 hours of narrative and less sandboxy action, it will be interesting to see how Earth Aleph responds to it.
Gameswheel (45G) - A collection of over 100 smaller games from competitions and development circles, released outside of the subscription structures and channels. Due to subscription and rights issues, they will be made available to Earth Aleph for only a limited time.
Opera of the Void (27G) - Annual update for OotV. Update brings cross-compatibility to other games from PRT Games, including Murderhall, Ahriman, and Conversations. Success and development in one game now offers some limited benefits in other games in the same network. Update includes ship and crew art from PRT Type-C swipe cards: swipe your favorite parahuman's card for a ship skin or to give your crew member a color scheme. Update also includes support and game modes aimed at children as young as 6; game's tinker aspects now better model and structure behavior, crisis management, anger management, addiction, and non-neurotypical thinking for younger minds, with recent tests suggesting behavior improves by 12 to 33%. Talk to your doctor before playing.
Murderhall (26G) - Summer update for Murderhall. Patch notes below. There's a lot going on, so we're covering it in a separate heading.
Ransack (2G) - Content patch for Ransack. There will be no inter-world Ransack tournament this year. Statement [here.] Content patch adds Whiterock, Ancient City, Lantern Town, Black Swamp, and City Under Siege overlord packs. Adds Temptress, Electrician, Raider, and Arbalester classes, play to unlock constituent parts. Tuning allows specific Ransack leagues to adjust the game's auto-balance feature to competitive, innovative, and explorative directions.
Receive: Monte (90.6G) - The labor of 15 years of love by a company of 20. What appears on the surface to be an isometric adventure game unfolds to reveal the largest hand-crafted world ever created. The file size sadly gives away some of the experience. Earth Aleph players in 2011 started playing what seemed to be a small and simple game executed beautifully, that gradually unfolded and expand without any apparent limit, filled with personal touches and deep lore.
Clay Dawn: Beneath (37G) - The DLC and packet of updates for Clay Dawn, released Fall 2011 and sent to Bet in Winter 2011. A 4x civilization game that puts players in the role of a god creating a new fantasy race and society. Opens with an inter-player auction for qualities, strengths, and features, and then moves into the very beginning of that race's existence, making choices as nuanced as type and style of language or writing system, art, and style of politics, with the possibility of truly asymmetrical gameplay. CD:Beneath adds the caverns underground, possibilities for underground races, and Deep Mythos, for races that may want to gamble with digging too deep.
Obligitare (30G) - A controversial choice, Obligitare may be the first game designed specifically with the intention of qualifying for the data exchange on cultural grounds. Created by Aleph Evangelicals, called 'the best Christian game ever', this ethereal and intense action game puts the player in the role of the unnamed Martyr, fighting their way through a dark world with close parallels to biblical imagery (Example: a central figure hung by rope instead of crucified). Not for kids.
Pact: Devils and Details (21.9G) - Based on the more adult-focused series spun off from the Maggie Holt YA novels, an atmospheric adventure game that received a lukewarm initial response after the company's initial hit, but has received much warmer feedback in recent months. A modern update to the adventure genre, take the role of a young man who inherits his grandmother's house and her trove of dark magic. This comes packaged with the Mirror DLC, for a co-op (or competitive, depending on your mindset) play experience, best played online.
Rot & Rue (15G) - Chosen in answer to last season's game from Bet ('Dead End') after a marketing campaign. After the nomination, the developer was quoted as saying: "Zombie games reflect our anxieties about the future and the state of society. I do not believe the world is going to end or that things are as dire as Dead End portrays them. Rot and Rue dwells on somber questions of politics and compromise, and the questions we have to ask when things get bad'. An intimate game centered around a settlement in the midst of a zombie apocalypse, with meaningful decision trees and high-stakes combat where one mistake can mean the loss of anyone (or everyone) in your settlement.
Urban Animals (1.1G) - 21st on the popularity rankings, this indie game puts players in the role of anthropomorphic animals in dead end jobs, dealing with gangs, shut up in their rooms, or dealing with disabilities and other mental health issues. Stylish and provocative, this game gives the player a different 'animal' each time, with a unique personality and life circumstance. A 'social deckbuilder' that asks you where and how you want to allocate your mental resources or use the nuances of your personality to get through your days.
Remainder: various patches for other games. For details, click [here.]
Murderhall
After frequent server outages and issues with the tinkertech game's maintenance from across the Aleph-Bet portal, the James administration of the US government of Aleph seems to be discouraged with the 'Murderhall' experiment and do not plan to continue the program.
For the time being, the US-Bet military, police, PRT, and sports teams continue to enjoy access to the full game, and all of the cognitive and teamwork-building benefits it confers. The PRT acquired the tinker, who remains anonymous, and they continue to monitor and screen for any issues. With the election later this year, there's a chance the new administration will block free access to the game and potentially even exclusive access to the game. For the time being we can expect the Summer and Fall updates to the game (backdated 6 months; the winter and spring updates for the full release) to be released to the public as usual.
To counter rumors, the PRT stated:
There are no plans to release the restrictions on data gathering. The evolving game may evolve more slowly and less specifically to you as a player as a consequence, but we will continue to comply with ESAA rules on data collection.
The summer update brings faster turnaround on changes in game content, to respond to the user. Optional 'red mode' optimizes teamwork for groups that play regularly, improving coordination, response times, interpersonal intuition, and empathy by a further 6%, but steeply reduces effect and may cause minor difficulties or confusion if games are not played at least every three days. Also featured is PRT Type-C swipe card functionality, with avatar and weapon skins themed after your favorite parahumans.
See a doctor before playing Murderhall.
submitted by Wildbow to Parahumans [link] [comments]

Missed out on Shopify, Wix, Wayfair, and Etsy? Here's (relatively undervalued) $JD. Earnings play + longer-term play + unusually high options volume

Missed out on Shopify, Wix, Wayfair, and Etsy? Here's (relatively undervalued) $JD. Earnings play + longer-term play + unusually high options volume
Update 5/12:
Sold around 10:30am for a ~40% profit. If any of you are still holding and you bought in yesterday, you should be up more than 50% by now. Best of luck.
Update 2: Up 3.3% today alone, some of you are surely at that 100% profit mark. If you held, good for you! Your balls are bigger than mine.

**TLDR:**JD will do well and is quite undervalued relative to its closest competitor, Pinduoduo. Analysts are predicting -0.13 EPS for the quarter. Seeing how well Shopify, Wayfair, Chegg, Spotify, etc have done relative to expectations, JD will likely exceed as well. Unusual volume of calls purchased on May 8th as well, potentially indicating some big money is betting on this as well.
**TLDR of TLDR:**JD good. Buy call.5/22 50c (less IV than 5/15)
**What is JD?**Its a large online retail store primarily based in China. Its accessible through the WeChat app, which is China's largest messaging app and 3rd largest in the world behind Facebook messenger and Whatsapp.
**Why should I care?**JD.com had 321 million annual active customer accounts in June of 2019 and in Q4 it had 362 million. I expect this number to hit 400 million or higher, especially with the spike in online purchasing in China during the covid crisis. For context, the entire population of the USA is 330 million. 90% of its purchases arrive same-day or next-day, outperforming both Pinduoduo and Alibaba in terms of logistics. Its earnings & revenues have grown YoY and it has exceeded earning expectations for the past 3 quarters.

**Comparison to Pinduoduo:**Another large e-commerce company in China is Pinduoduo (PDD). They have the 2nd most active users (~580 million) of any e-commerce company in China, apart from Alibaba. PDD has almost the same market cap as JD yet their revenues are vastly different. JD had sales revenue of $82 billion in 2019, yet PDD had only $4 billion. On top of this, PDD posted a net income of -1 billion, while JD had +1.75 billion. JD's user base has also been rapidly growing, however this is more relevant if you're thinking of LEAPS or just buying shares. JD also has 3x the net assets of PDD and also appears to have a better customer reputation and retention rate than both PDD and even Alibaba, as JD's delivery times are quick and they also heavily work on eliminating counterfeit items sold by merchants. JD outperforms PDD in essentially every way, apart from user count. Sure, user count is useful but if it doesn't translate into revenue, then what?In summary, roughly equal market cap, yet JD has a much better balance sheet and growth rate. PDD has routinely missed expectations, does not have a strong logistics network as it almost entirely uses 3rd parties, and is overly reliant on small merchants that were likely impacted during shutdowns. Please note that the numbers below are in renminbi.

JD
PDD
**Comparison to... Amazon?**Before you grill me, no I am not saying JD is equivalent to Amazon or will get there within a few months. I am saying that there are some similarities that poise JD for future growth. Just like Amazon, JD has its own warehouses and they sell directly to consumers. They also allow 3rd party sellers, they have their own logistics and distribution, cloud services, IoT (Volkswagan partnership), and grocery stores. Hell, they even have some dabblings in insurance and healthcare with a stake in Allianz and a subsidiary, JD Health. JD Health was recently in the news for its coronavirus rapid testing and ability to book an appointment on their app. These are more relevant if you want to buy longer-term calls or shares (wtf is a share? Some weird kind of call without worrying delta, theta, and vega fucking me?).
**What about the economic damage due to covid?**China is already showing signs of recovery for consumer confidence and purchasing. Furthermore, JD has livestreaming services. Livestreaming revenues in China are up 470%. Online sales are up 36%. Thus, for at least for Q1, I'm confident in JD's performance. If you're playing for earnings, then the longer term macro environment isn't as important. Yes, JD could address the global economic uncertainty and pull an Amazon type move during earnings, though I personally doubt that they would do so. This would only display weakness and perhaps allow their competitors PDD and BABA to use this against them. See Chinese recovery graphs below.
Smallest change in consumer spending (apart from India)

Beijing traffic already back to pre-covid levels

V-shape recovery in property sales and car sales

![img](xw66vh6pvsx41 "App downloads during China's covid crisis - JD has grocery stores as well ")
**What about Trump threatening tariffs again? What if this a Luckin Coffee situation?**Unlikely to matter, JD's business is entirely within China and not dependent on trade. They're focused on the consumer demand and logistics side of things. They also work with domestic firms via their 3rd party sales. Even foreign companies such as Walmart rely on JD due to their influence within China. They also own a 12% stake of JD. Do you think Walmart would risk their money if this was anything like LK? JD also has partnerships with Microsoft, Western Digital, Volkswagen, and HP. All of these partnerships are for domestic sales. JD is not importing or exporting anything in significant quantities.

Last Topic - Unusual Options Activity
7/17 47c
If you look at 7/17, there was a volume of ~17500 for the 55c traded on May 8th. This is 50x the volume for this contract (normal daily volume ~350). Furthermore, there was a single order of 7500 placed at the end of the trading day for this specific contract. This is equivalent to 2.7 million USD. Looking at other strikes and expiration dates, this order is still unusually large.
There were two other large orders from the same exchange placed within seconds of the first trade, listed below. Most trading days for the 6/19 41c contract have a volume of less than 100. Friday, May 8th had 14000, with these two near-simultaneous trades comprising half of this. Combined cost of these 3 orders is 7.6 million USD.
Were there any other comparable days to Friday's option trading? Yes, there was one. The second largest day for the 6/19 41c was on 03/31 with a volume of 10000. The following two weeks after this large trade, the stock went up 18% from $40 to $47.3. There were also large volumes for various 6/19 strikes +/- 3 days of 03/31 prior to JD's first run-up in April. This could be pure coincidence but its interesting to note.
Even disregarding these 3 large orders, Friday May 8th had record volume for most strikes across several expiration dates. Of course there's no way for me to know who placed these trades or why they were placed. Insider trading? Large hedge? Long call ladder? A fellow WSBer trying to post some epic gains porn?
Large orders

**TLDR:**
JD will do well and is quite undervalued relative to its closest competitor, Pinduoduo. Analysts are predicting -0.13 EPS for the quarter. Seeing how well Shopify, Wayfair, Chegg, Spotify, etc have done relative to expectations, JD will likely exceed as well. Unusual volume of calls purchased on May 8th as well, potentially indicating some big money is in.
**Positions:**
For earnings:
5/22 50c
I'm personally not doing the 5/15 options simply due to their higher IV. This also gives some buffer in case there's any overall market drop this week that affects JD.If you are going to wait until the last minute to buy these, please be aware that JD has their earnings report before market open. In other words, buy before EOD 5/14.
For longer-term calls:
9/18 60c
If you really want to pull a boomer move, you can buy actual shares as well.
submitted by TravelingSkeptic to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[Disney Fandom] D23 Expo: What goes wrong when Disney runs their own fan convention.

The recent Disney Pin post has me thinking back to the drama surrounding the D23 Expo, so I decided to make a write up about it. This could be a series with all the insane stories, but this drama story is about the lines of the 2017 Expo.
Brief history of the Expo
In 2009, Disney created D23: The Official Disney Fan Club, a club for the intense Disney fans of all types to get a nice glossy magazine four times a year and an annual item when they renew their membership. D23 members also get access to special events, like in-store shopping previews, movie screenings, tours of the Walt Disney Studios, and panel discussions throughout the year, but these are mostly valuable if you live in LA, Orlando, or other big cities.
2009 was also host to the first D23 Expo, a biennial event that has grown to massive proportions in recent years to almost rival Comic Con, which was their intentions. 2009 was also when Disney purchased Marvel, and seeing the success of Comic Con they wanted some of that for themselves too. They had the Anaheim Convention Center, and Disneyland next door, the perfect place to host such an expo. With the addition of Star Wars in 2012, the Expo has grown to the point where they are starting to have some difficulties with crowd control and overselling of tickets. The Expos run Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The premier and busiest day tends to be Saturday, with Sunday being relatively less crowded. The Expo is also home to incredible cosplays, with one woman creating a dress featuring an actual miniature version of Big Thunder Mountain Railroad.
An Expo of lines
As with most conventions, lines are an essential part of the planning process for this Expo. If you want to skip the lines, be prepared to pay for a Sorcerer's pass, which costs upwards of $2,500 for the weekend per person and sells out in seconds (but you get some amazing perks and seats for the price, almost worth it if you are a big Disney and merch fan). People wait in endless lines for panels, limited edition merch, and just to get in the show floor where they have giveaways. The merch people tend to be the most vicious, waiting overnight all three days of the expo instead of getting a hotel. In 2019, merch people decided it would be fun to start waiting for the convention on Wednesday night, when the expo doesn't even start until Friday morning. They were shooed away by officials. Because of the epic nature of the panels and the limited edition of the merch, overnight lines have started to become a huge issue for Disney.
2017, the year it all went wrong
2017 saw D23's largest expo. They experimented with moving it a month earlier to July, a week before Comic Con. The Avengers and new Star Wars series were the latest buzz in those fandoms, and this lead to the most impressive lines the expo has ever seen.
Enter Friday afternoon. People were waiting in line for the Walt Disney Animation Studios panel, a very important panel where they showcase the future of the company for the next two years. They make you seal your laptop and cell phone for this panel, it's so important. I went in 2019, and saw the first eight minutes of Onward. If you are a Disney Animation fan, this presentation is for you.
In 2017, this panel and the Live Action panel were separate (combined in 2019). People waited overnight and all day for the Animation panel. The employees, unfortunately, were untrained and didn't know how to handle lines of this capacity. A barricade was broken right as people were starting to move into the hall. Thousands of people waiting in line for hours were told they couldn't enter because people freely cut the line and flowed into the hall. This, naturally, led to a near riot. These people were pissed.
Here is a video of how Disney was trying to control an angry mob of Disney Animation fans. It wasn't pretty. Disney caved and offered them a wristband to attend their choice of Live Action Panel the next morning, or Parks panel the next afternoon, which some people were happy with, but it was bitter sweet since that year they showed all of the living Disney Princess actresses on stage together at the same time for Ralph Breaks the Internet, a once in a lifetime opportunity to witness. The incident, of course, lead to negative press covering the entire mess of the weekend, hot lines in the sun, etc...
Results
In 2019, they tried to mitigate some of that drama by offering panel reservations, but those were easily manipulated and lead to an absolute disaster of angry people online waiting hours to get panel reservations. They did it the wrong way, instead of having a lottery, they decided to do it like Ticketmaster reservations. First come, first serve after being randomized in line. People waited HOURS to get reservations only to find out that most were sold out in 10 minutes. Disney allowed the first few people to grab ALL of the panel reservation spots, and tech issues lead to a majority of people failing to get what panels they wanted, and thus waiting in line for actual panels.
There's even more drama regarding the exclusive Disney Fashion Dolls, which can sell on Ebay for thousands of dollars, (they're sold at $150) or the insane merch lines that can last several hours just to get into the merch store. This panel can be fun, but you have to take a lot of planning into what you're going to do. Unless, of course, you're willing to shell out for a Sorcerer's pass, which is the safest bet at having a completely worry-free expo.
submitted by DuchessofGryffindor to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

[Event] Saudi Arabia sets up Gambling Commission

It is not a secret that the official religion of Saudi Arabia is Islam, and according to Islamic Law, gambling is forbidden. There’s a large quantity of rather secular citizens residing in the country, and they would enjoy the freedom to gamble whenever they please.
Camel racing is both popular and legal in Saudi Arabia. Prizes are even awarded to winners, however, bets may not be placed on these matches legally. Regardless, bets are often placed on camel races and the illegal purses can get quite hefty. It is not unusual for winning camels to be sold for stud at prices above $130,000.
Besides camel racing there is Horse racing, Cock and Bull Fighting, Falconry competitions, Football matches and Card Games that have a culture of gambling even though all are still illegal. If players would like to gamble without having to worry about the law, online gambling is their only option, but this is now no longer the case.
The Gambling Commission will be set up as an executive non departmental public body of the Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on responsible for regulating gambling and supervising gaming law in KSA. It's remit covers arcades, betting, bingo, casinos, slot machines, and lotteries, as well as online gambling.
The stated aims of the Commission are to keep crime out of gambling, and to protect the vulnerable. It issues licences to operators, and advises the government on gambling-related issues. It also collaborates with the police over suspected illegal gambling.
All companies seeking permission to engage in this activity would require special permission from the Commission prior to operations. More information can be saught from Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
[S] First to recieve a permit is primary donor of the Gambling Commission, Al Waleed Bin Talal Al Saud, Chairman and CEO of Kingdom Holding Group, of one of the largest groups in the world, having a very diversified portofolio. A meeting is arranged with Roger Marris, CEO of The Ritz Club London, to create a branch in Riyadh.
This Opulent private club and casino with limo service, restaurant and bar indulgently decorated in gold and red will be the first of it's kind in the whole of GCC, making even Dubai jealous. It will be a luxurious private members' club and casino open 24 hours. We expect elite members of the community and its neighbors flock here for enjoyment [Secret within Secret] and money laundering purposes [/SwS] [M] couldn't think of a better way to structure it. [/M] and this should generate traction for people to spend more in Oman guarantee some economic prosperity in the future years.
Other businessmen closely related and friendly with the Senior Members of the Gambling Commission coordinate with William Hill, Ladbrokes, and Coral to set up agency agreements.
Whilst Alcohol is still technically illegal, Al Waleed bin Talal has been given the Green Light by King Salman to go ahead, since changes are on the way. [/S]
submitted by Vanguard_CK3 to Geosim [link] [comments]

Second Week: 1,201 visitors, 2 sales & $528 revenue, tough decisions made.

Last week was strange, to be honest.
As mentioned in my last weeks report, I was working on performing website online presence audits, but then I run into the issue - I assumed 1 will take 3 days to complete, and it will be possible to get this down to 1 day.
Unfortunately, the second report did take 5 days, and as of now, it seems I cannot take on new orders because I won't be able to complete them.
That sucks, because, you know, I need to earn to pay for rent, etc.
Seeing that my first week's revenue might be the last one for a while, I quickly reactivated my side project from 2 years ago.
And this made me quite happy.
The service offered provides a second opinion idea validation.
It means that I am using a mix of tools to contact your potential audience and ask them to fill a quick survey.
They review your idea, sometimes leave a comment, then the results are converted into a clean report and sent to you.
This way, you can avoid a situation where you pursue an idea, spend $$$, and then find out there is no interest in it.
You can pretty much use this for ideas of any kind - startups, businesses, products, services, projects.

I stopped offering this service a long time ago because I had some personal matters to take care of. I had to make difficult decisions - either focus on my awesome side-project, or on my high-earning business. I chose the latter (that was a possible mistake).
But today is a new day, and I can finally get back to it. I even consider it as a hobby, so it's great to work on something you are passionate about!

I made a few changes to the website, created a new offer, performed tests, and within a few days, I have managed to secure 2 sales.
The first sale came from Reddit (I posted it on web dev Subreddit) - the smallest package purchased, but it was nice to get a bump.
The post on Reddit did make a huge impact - a lot of feedback and over 180 upvotes with a landing page that was not even really finished.
This gave me a validation of my own idea - it was a decision to get back to it!

The second sale was more unexpected. I started looking for possible customers, so I started scanning Reddit, IndieHackers, Facebook, Twitter for potential leads.
The method was simple - I was looking for people that are asking questions or posts about a problem, then I was asking myself - can my Idea Validation service help directly?
It's essential to be realistic - if someone is wondering if he should hire a plumber, he won't use my service, but by offering him Idea Validation, I could earn a spammers badge.
In total, I've found 5 leads that I thought would be perfect.
1 on Reddit, 3 on Facebook, and 1 on Twitter.
Reddit, Twitter, and 1 on Facebook never answered.
1 on Facebook sent me a "Thanks, I am cool".
Last one, a guy that was preparing for an investor pitch figured an Idea Validation report from an independent entity would increase the value of his meeting.
So not only he ordered - he got the largest package!
He requested a few changes to the report, which is fantastic since it allows me to work directly with a customer to provide better value.
Facebook once again proved to be an excellent lead generation source!
Of course, I bet this was more of luck this time (after all, I contacted only 5 people), but I will continue to do so (modestly) and see how it goes.
I need to flirt with the startup communities more and pitch to startups thinking about getting loans or funding.

Here is a breakdown of what was done:

-20 hours - completing a single audit
-15 hours - redesigning landing page and implementing idea validation reports and system
-2 hours - performing my own idea validation (with great success)
-3 hours - completing idea validation orders
-4 hours - monitoring and contacting leads on social media (this made a whopping $499)
-4 hours - writing and publishing an article on Reddit & Indie Hackers, answering comments
-6 hours - writing an unpublished article (I will finish it today and post it tomorrow)
---------------------
Total of 54 hours

I've earned $528, which means I was working for $9.77 per hour. I was working for myself, and I am increasingly happy about where all of this goes, so I am OK with it. I've got used to the $45-120 per hour programming payouts, but beginnings are always hard. If I could get Almost Cake to 40 hours @ $25/ph, then I would be really happy for the time being. After all, I do all of this to give myself a break, not build million dollars company.

From the article that I wrote about re-launching my Idea Validation service and other sources, I've got 1,201 visits (I cannot track exact numbers for each source this week, unfortunately).

The conversion rate is only 0.16% - but that was expected since I was redesigning the landing page and fixing issues when traffic was hitting my site.
My ultimate goal is to increase it to 0.5% for non-search engine traffic.
This might take time, though.

Also, I lost all of my search engine traffic, but that's also expected since I completely redesigned the website, and Google still did not index the new content (I finally NEED sitemap done!).

Also, from bad news - I lost Tuesday. My overworking took its toll, and I was unable to work, think, and barely stand up.
The stress, overworking, working late hours, is starting to hurt me. So I took Tuesday off to let the body and mind recover.
I watched a movie (the first time in 3 months) and spent some time with my partner. It was awesome.

I start getting strange thoughts about my business...
I am in a bad situation, yet I feel that a lot of weight dropped from my shoulders.
I closed all time-wasting side projects, stopped working on any freelancer work, shut down everything that was built over a few years, and I felt that it allowed me to re-focus.
With a clearer mind, I am on crossroads:
-focus on audit business, that it's nice to do, but really demanding
-work on my side-project which I really like to do and I am passionate about
I think I will go exclusively with the second option.
Overall the unbiased idea validation (were people answering are not paid and are targeted by niche) is extremely difficult to pull off.
I have seen many companies trying and failing.
Popular ones that survived are paying its responders, which I think affects the results (but such services still have a place in the web world).
The good thing - I had this figured out and tested. So it's working for me, and most of the time, I can turn a profit.
By implementing a lead gen company, Twillio, and real, natural way of interacting with reviewers, this has a chance to become a significant player in this niche.
Unfortunately, those leads (due to GDPR) can be contacted only for research purposes, so I cannot use this setup to reach potential buyers.
The trick is to find a way to monetize this source of data, not to cry over the inability to sell anything to them.
So that's that; hopefully, I can do Idea Validation as my job, not just a side project.

My goal is to get 5-6 sales until next week's update, fingers crossed!

You can check my service here: Almost Cake
submitted by bartboch to EntrepreneurRideAlong [link] [comments]

Plus500 (LON:PLUS) – a good hedge against the return of volatility

As volatility is set to return to the market, Plus500, with a current beta of -0.33, could be a logically-sound hedge against board market risk whilst adding capital gain potential as well as diversification benefit to the total portfolio, as it has already shown over the past few months.
Why (and What is) Plus500
The first time I came across with Plus500 (LON:PLUS) was during a UEFA Champions League game (European soccer competition) between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona that I watched a few years ago where they were (and still are) the jersey sponsor for Atletico Madrid (a top Spanish soccer club for anyone who doesn’t follow soccer). From their brand name it was hard for me me to figure out what Plus500 does, which I later found out that not only they are a one of the largest online trading platforms in Europe for CFD, spread betting and other financial assets (including cryptocurrency), but also a listed company on London Stock Exchange. And then it all made sense to me why Plus500 would choose to advertise their services through a soccer club: there are many commonalities between both soccer fields and financial markets: the ever-changing situations, the fast pace dynamics, and large volume of boisterous spectators that are ever-present.


Plus500 is an international financial firm providing online trading services in contracts for difference (CFDs), across more than 2,000 securities and multiple asset classes.
Heightened market volatility (again) could further boosted Plus500's growth
Ever-changing situations, fast-paced dynamics and large volume of boisterous spectators are indeed what characterised the global financial markets in the first half of 2020. Following the surprising V-shaped recovery from the market bottom in late March, Stocks retreated over the past few weeks as the global markets are gearing up toward another period of heightened volatility. The VIX index had a noticeable pick up over recent weeks (see charts below) as more and more confirmed COVID-19 cased were being reported following the ease of the lockdowns as well as recent protests both in the US and aboard. In addition to a looming second wave of COVID-19, there are several other potential risk factors, such as Trade conflicts between US and Europe and the upcoming Presidential election, which could significantly influence investor’s confidence over the stock markets and stimulate more tug of wars between the bulls and the bears of the markets on a day-to-day basis.

VIX index - Risk is gradually returning
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
Uncertainty triggers volatility, and Plus500 is certainly one of the a few companies that make money from this directly. The stock has performed very strongly this year (+52% YTD) relative to the board UK stock market (FTSE down by 18.3% YTD) thanks to the record level of trading activities by its customers. It also added more than 82,000 and 100,000 new customers in Q1 and Q2 respectively which exceeded their expectations for both quarters.

Plus500 stock price since 2018
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
There are other reasons to stay optimistic about the stocks: Plus500’s business operation is reasonably well diversified in terms of geographical location (see chart below). It’s also fairly cash rich for company of its size. Plus500 has a negative net debt of over $287 million in the current financial year and a projected free cash flow yield of 31.6% in 2021, which means they are unlikely to face any potentially significant liquidity concerns which often can cause businesses to go bankrupt (such as the position Wirecard find themselves in this week). Furthermore, Plus500’s shareholder returns policy is to return at least 60% of net profits to shareholders, through a combination of dividends and share buybacks, with at least 50% of this distribution being made by way of dividends. Its current dividend yield of 4% p.a. will be particularly appealing to incoming seeking investors.

https://preview.redd.it/6jmjv7vrnp751.png?width=3006&format=png&auto=webp&s=21b337a2a456932577b586bebc72c5931cba28d2
Source: Refinitiv Eikon

Plus500 stock profile
Source: Genuine Impact
Another Wirecard situation?
Ultimately the stock’s future price momentum will dependent upon the sustainability of the market volatility as well as uncertainties in regulatory landscapes. As showed in the chart earlier Plus500’s business operation spreads over several jurisdictions and they are authorised and regulated by the market regulators in the UK, Cyprus, Australia, Singapore and Israel, which means that any change and update in regulatory framework concerning CFDs or other financial instruments will likely to significantly affect Plus500’s business operation and influence market expectations on their future revenue and growth. Rewinding the clock to February 2019 its stock price more than halved over a two-week period, when the Australian market regulator announced restrictions in CFD trading rules which adversely affected Plus500’s profitability. Similar regulatory uncertainties in the future could easily cause its stock profit to slump. It’s also worth noting that Plus500 also had its fair share of accounting controversy in the past. One incident was that in its 2017 Annual Report, Plus500 announced that they did not generate net revenues or losses from market P&L in 2017. However in February 2019 the company issued a contradictory report stating that it had incurred a $103 million loss from client trading activity in the 2017 financial year, causing investors to cast doubts over the credibility of their published financials and their stock prices to plummet. Investors and regulators are likely to be more sensitive and aggressive than ever toward these kind of accounting irregularities for any public company after the Wirecard case.

Analysts upgraded their 2021 and 2022 revenue projections
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
Agree to disagree
The market seems to hold a slip view on the stock. As a matter of fact the four broker analysts that provide research coverage on Plus500 cannot have a less divided opinion on its outlook which is reflected in the ratings they give out (one strong buy, one hold, one sell and one strong sell) and range of target prices they’ve set (£6.65 - £21.38, current price at £13.01). However, over the past few months there appears to be a consensus amongst these analysts on the stock’s future growth momentum as they all lifted their 2021 and 2022 revenue projection for Plus500 (see chart above), thanks to the increasing trading volume and customer growth over the past few months. Their average revenue projections for 2021 was $365 million back in March 2020, and has now been lifted to $574 million for the same period, representing a 57% increase (roughly in line with the stock's YTD performance).
This upward momentum is likely to continue if volatility resumes in the coming weeks. Like their competitors in the sector, Plus500’s financial performance this year will be dependent, among other things, on the global financial market conditions providing sufficient trading opportunities for customers.
Thanks for reading my post and I appreciate any feedback and comments! Stay safe and all the best with your investments.
submitted by hdent1985 to UKInvesting [link] [comments]

Take aways from FansUnite Webinar with CEO and Directors. B2B & B2C revenue streams, aggressive M&A, and international expansion

$FANS is operating both B2B and B2C revenue models of the business and is pursuing an aggressive M&A strategy. In saturated markets $fans will be offering their underlying betting platform to existing companies. #B2B Explicitly stated a goal of adding two b2b partners/quarter.
Where opportunity exists $fans intends to gain footholds through M&A. Recent example is the acquisition of Mcbookie, the largest online sport book in Scotland. This is how they intend to spread globally with another acquisition said to be coming in the next 120 days.
$FANS is also looking to break into the already saturated sports betting #US market through the b2b software side by offering existing large stakeholders #Fans software. This negates the large marketing spend and other costs it would take to establish their own large stakeholder.
#US presents some challenges for $FANS because regulations and licensing vary between states but directors indicated they were looking towards New Jersey and Colorado to be the first points of penetration in the US using Esports betting capabilities to give them an edge.
$FANS has 18 months of runway! By which time they expect to be revenue positive meaning they do not expect to do any major financings any time soon. With multiple revenue streams, aggressive M&A, and a plan for continued international expansion, money should be pouring in soon.
submitted by FantasticMrStocks to PennyStocksCanada [link] [comments]

The harmful consequences of Trump’s obsession with hydroxychloroquine

I’ve noticed some misinformation - most of it unintentional - about Trump’s obsession with using hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, to treat COVID-19. I wanted to clear things up, as much as possible.

The start

A Chinese and a French study found that hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin reduced the load of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in patients’ blood, although their clinical symptoms didn’t change much. The studies were not randomized and did not account for factors like previous health history.
The French study has garnered the most attention, even though experts have warned that the study is small and lacks sufficient rigor to be classed as evidence of a potential treatment. A medicinal chemist writes that “most of their patients only had mild symptoms. Furthermore, 85% of the patients didn’t even have a fever – one of the major telltale symptoms of the virus, thus suggesting that these patients likely would have naturally cleared the virus without any intervention.”
Trump took to Twitter after the study was published: “HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine.”
Dr. Mehmet Oz then appeared on Fox News’ Hannity to promote the French study, conducted by Didier Raoult, and advocate for the use of hydroxychloroquine in the U.S. “This French doctor, [Didier] Raoult, a very famous infectious-disease specialist, had done some interesting work at a pilot study showing that he could get rid of the virus in six days in 100 percent of the patients he treated… I had the opportunity to interview Dr. Raoult. I was very impressed by him,” Oz told Hannity.
There have since been additional studies contradicting those promoted by Trump and the conservative media. Another study conducted in France, led by Jean-Michel Molina, found that after hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin treatment eight out of ten patients still tested positive for COVID-19. Additionally, one of these ten patients died, two were transferred to the ICU, and one had to be removed from the treatment due to serious complications.
Even the top infectious disease expert on the president’s task force, Dr. Fauci, has cast doubt on the potential of using the drug for COVID-19 treatment:
Asked about hydroxychloroquine at a briefing: “The information that you're referring to specifically is anecdotal… It was not done in a controlled clinical trial, so you really can't make any definitive statement about it.”
On Fox News: “So although there is some suggestion with the study that was just mentioned by Dr. Oz—granted that there is a suggestion that there is a benefit there—I think we’ve got to be careful that we don’t make that majestic leap to assume that this is a knockout drug.”
On Sunday, a reporter tried to ask Dr. Fauci about the drug and Trump stopped him from answering: “Do you know how many times he’s answered that question?” Trump cut in. “Maybe 15.” The reporter responded, “The question is for the doctor. … He’s your medical expert, correct?” Trump shook his finger at the reporter and said “You don’t have to ask the question,” and so Fauci didn’t answer it, and the news conference shuffled right along.
As a result of Trump’s enthusiasm, the FDA issued an emergency authorization allowing the use of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 on March 28. The agency still warns that the only people who should take the drug are those who cannot take part in a clinical trial.

The Trump-whisperers

Who is Trump listening to if not the experts? Why, the well known infectious disease experts Rudy Giuliani, Dr. Oz, Laura Ingraham, Larry Ellison, and Peter Navarro, of course!
Rudy Giuliani told the Washington Post that he’s spoken to Trump multiple times about hydroxychloroquine, claiming to have described the results of the French study to the president. In the past three weeks, Giuliani has tweeted about the drug 14 times. He apparently has gotten his wealth of knowledge from “a controversial Long Island family doctor with a following in the conservative media, as well as a former pharmacist who once pleaded guilty to conspiring to extort the actor Steven Seagal.”
One of the biggest promoters of hydroxychloroquine as a coronavirus treatment has been Dr. Oz. He has made eight appearances on Fox & Friends, seven on Hannity, two on Lou Dobbs, one on Morning with Maria, and one on Shannon Bream. Trump has taken notice and reportedly told aides he wanted to speak to Dr. Oz himself. It is unknown if that conversation occurred, but Oz has already spoken with top administration officials, including the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Seema Verma.
  • “He’s been dishonest and he has been dispensing misinformation to millions now for years,” physician and scientific researcher Henry I. Miller told The Daily Beast last month. “I wouldn’t trust any of his observations and don’t see how he would have responsible and valid views on coronavirus.”
Last Friday, Fox News host Laura Ingraham took two doctors who are regular guests on her show to the White House for a private meeting with Trump and FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn. The two doctors were Ramin Oskoui, a Washington-based cardiologist, and Stephen Smith, a New Jersey-based infectious disease specialist. Smith presented Trump with his ideas for COVID-19 treatment and emphasized the benefits of hydroxychloroquine. According to the Washington Post, Trump “emerged from that meeting seemingly determined to advocate for hydroxychloroquine to be more widely used.
Over a week ago, Politico reported that an influential ally played a role in buttressing Trump’s faith in the drug: Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, a top Trump campaign donor, pitched Trump on the drug and offered to build the government a database to track the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine by doctors in the U.S. The White House has pulled multiple agencies into the effort to develop such a database, distracting from their work responding to the virus in ways that are proven to help.
“Everyone is getting ahead of their skis here,” said one senior Health and Human Services official involved in drug policy. “All this buzz is confusing the American public, it's confusing doctors. There’s a ton of people involved in front-line response in the government … who are getting pulled into meetings to discuss this when the data doesn’t support it.”
A new report from Politico today reveals that career health officials have been warned not to publicly speak out and potentially contradict Trump on hydroxychloroquine. “Health officials have been told to prioritize [hydroxychloroquine] over other projects that scientists believe have more potential to fight the outbreak.”
Perhaps Trump’s most ardent supporter inside the task force is Economic Adviser Peter Navarro, who reportedly got into a heated argument with Dr. Fauci about the drug on Saturday. At a coronavirus task force meeting, Navarro asserted that he’s seen “clear therapeutic efficacy” of hydroxychloroquine in coronavirus patients. Fauci repeated what he’s said in public, that it is only anecdotal evidence at this point, which apparently “set Peter off.”
Navarro pointed to the pile of folders on the desk, which included printouts of studies on hydroxychloroquine from around the world. Navarro said to Fauci, "That's science, not anecdote," said another of the sources.
Navarro started raising his voice, and at one point accused Fauci of objecting to Trump's travel restrictions, saying, "You were the one who early on objected to the travel restrictions with China," saying that travel restrictions don't work. (Navarro was one of the earliest to push the China travel ban.)
...Pence was trying to moderate the heated discussion. "It was pretty clear that everyone was just trying to get Peter to sit down and stop being so confrontational," said one of the sources. Eventually, Kushner turned to Navarro and said, "Peter, take yes for an answer," because most everyone agreed, by that time, it was important to surge the supply of the drug to hot zones.
Asked about the reported argument on Fox News, Navarro responded: “I think history will judge who's right on this debate, but I'd bet on President Trump's intuition on this one.”

What explains it?

So what explains Trump’s insistence that hydroxychloroquine will save the U.S. from the coronavirus? There are two main “schools of thought” here. One is that Trump’s personality faults make it attractive to support a miracle cure over the protests of experts. Other people posit that Trump will financially benefit from the sale of hydroxychloroquine.
Let’s deal with the financial aspect first, since that has been blowing up in the past 24 hours. It’s a difficult issue because there is some disagreement about the significance of the two following stories. So what I’ll do is provide just the facts, then put it in a larger context.
Cohen’s Novartis deal
In 2018, we learned that Trump’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen signed a one-year contract with the multinational pharmaceutical company Novartis. Their subsidiary, Novartis Investments S.A.R.L., made up to $1.2 million in total payments to Cohen’s consulting firm between February 2017 and February 2018.
Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Michael Avenatti revealed the existence of the contract in the spring of 2018. Amid public scrutiny, Novartis explained that the contract with Cohen was for health-care policy consulting work that he proved “unable” to do.
Novartis said it believed Cohen “could advise the company as to how the Trump administration might approach certain U.S. health-care policy matters, including the Affordable Care Act.” But just a month after signing the deal, Novartis executives had their first meeting with Cohen, and afterward “determined that Michael Cohen and Essentials Consultants would be unable to provide the services that Novartis had anticipated.”
Trump’s stake in Sanofi
The other night, the New York Times reported that Trump has a “small personal financial interest” in the French pharmaceutical company Sanofi, which manufactures the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil). This story has garnered a great deal of attention even though there is not much information given. Here are the pertinent excerpts:
Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine… As of last year, Mr. Trump reported that his three family trusts each had investments in a Dodge & Cox mutual fund, whose largest holding was in Sanofi.
That’s it.
ANALYSIS
This may not be popular to say, but it doesn’t appear that the Sanofi investment, alone, explains Trump’s incessant promotion of hydroxychloroquine. First of all, Trump doesn’t directly own Sanofi stock - he holds it in three family trusts through an investment in the mutual fund Dodge & Cox’s international stock fund. Going by Trump’s 2019 financial disclosures, Trump’s family trusts have each invested between $1 to $15,000 in Dodge & Cox’s fund. Financial Times reporter Kadhim Shubber wrote this means the president’s stake in Sanofi is likely worth about $30- $450 for each family trust, or about $1,350 maximum total.
That Sanofi investment would therefore constitute between 0.000003 and 0.00005 percent of Trump’s net worth. If you were worth $100,000, it would be like worrying about the nickel in your pocket. (WaPo)
Other shares in the fund include some in AstraZeneca, Novartis, Bayer, GlaxoSmithKline, as well as online retail, electronics, and banking companies.
Furthermore, (1) hydroxychloroquine is a very cheap generic made by a bunch of different pharmaceutical companies. (2) Sanofi no longer sells or distributes Plaquenil in the United States, although it does sell it internationally. (3) The largest suppliers of the drug in the U.S. are in India. After Trump’s endorsement, global stockpiling of hydroxychloroquine caused India to ban exports of all forms of the drug. Yesterday, Trump threatened retaliation and India agreed to drop the ban.
as Ami Fadia of SVB Leerink, a health care investment company, told Barron’s, any additional hydroxychloroquine sales aren’t likely to greatly impact drug companies’ bottom lines because, even if they are able to quickly ramp up production, it is a relatively cheap drug in its generic form. Fadia said it can cost as little as 32 cents per pill.
The argument that Novartis’ contract with Michael Cohen years ago has affected Trump’s decisions today are even weaker.
NOTE: This is not to say that Trump doesn’t have a conflict of interest here. Reporting on these conflicts is incredibly important! Trump’s decision not to sell off his assets or put them into a blind trust casts any action he takes in doubt - the question will always loom: Does Trump financially benefit from this? And there have been plenty of times the answer is a resounding “yes!” We must be careful not to sound a false alarm, though.
Alternative explanation: Trump is Trump
Many argue that we don’t have to look to financial interests to explain Trump’s obsession with using hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19. Trump (1) thinks very highly of himself and his “gut feelings,” and (2) wants a magic cure to get his “great” economy back.
Bolstered by his friends and allies, Trump has supreme confidence in his ability to know the most about everything. We have seen it numerous times in the past, when Trump claimed to be an expert on everything from campaign finance, to ISIS, to renewable energy and Sen. Cory Booker.
Trump compensates for his own insecurity by working to convince himself and everyone else that the experts don’t know what they’re talking about, and he knows more than them about everything. As he said in an appearance at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.” The scientists standing with him neither burst out in laughter nor began weeping uncontrollably, a tribute to their self-control. (WaPo)
Finally, Trump is also desperate. The fact of the matter is there is no miracle pill to stop the coronavirus and open up the country in as little as four weeks, as Larry Kudlow hopes.
“We had the greatest economy in the history of the world, we had the most people working in the history of our country, almost 160 million people, far more than ever before. And then one day, our professionals correctly came to us and they said, ‘sorry, sir, we have to close down our country,’” Trump lamented Monday at a White House news conference.
Trump wasted months before preparing for the virus. As much as he’d like to avoid blame, the truth is that his administration failed to effectively respond to a global pandemic that has killed over 12,000 Americans so far. From Trump’s perspective, as he said about the drug, “what do you have to lose?”
If Trump can claim that he personally defeated covid-19, then he might just win. If hydroxychloroquine somehow turns out to be an effective treatment, he can point to all the time he spent promoting it while others were skeptical and say, “I did it, America. I saved all your lives, because I’m a genius and the so-called experts are idiots.” (WaPo)

The dangers

As we’ve seen, Trump is diverting attention and resources from more promising solutions, like a vaccine, to focus on his miracle drug. But that’s not the only danger of his obsession with hydroxychloroquine:
  1. ProPublica: Trump’s push to use hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 has triggered a run on the drug. Healthy people are stocking up just in case they come down with the disease. That has left lupus patients like Valdez and those with rheumatoid arthritis suddenly confronting a lack of medication that safeguards them, and not only from the effects of those conditions.
  2. NYT: Doctors are hoarding medications touted as possible coronavirus treatments by writing prescriptions for themselves and family members, according to pharmacy boards in states across the country.
  3. Trump has said “what do you have to lose” while claiming that hydroxychloroquine is completely safe, but this is not true. About 10% of the population is susceptible to serious and potentially lethal side effects: Poison.org warns that the anti-malaria drug can cause a dangerous heart rhythm. When seriously ill COVID-19 patients are given hydroxychloroquine, they are “connected to continuous heart monitors and also get serial electrocardiograms (electrical monitoring of the heart) to look for abnormal heart rhythms before they become life-threatening.”
  4. Furthermore, Poison.org warns that “chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine have major drug interactions with other medicines that can put a person at an even greater risk of an abnormal heart rhythm.” One of these drugs is actually azithromycin, which the French study used in combination with hydroxychloroquine. Another is the diabetes drug metformin, which may kill patients if used in combination with chloroquine.
  5. People may take matters into their own hands. You may remember that two weeks ago, CNN reported: “A Phoenix-area man is dead and his wife is under critical care after the two took chloroquine phosphate in an apparent attempt to self-medicate for the novel coronavirus.” Nigeria reported that three people in their country overdosed on chloroquine after Trump’s endorsement.
  6. NEW ADDITION: In Texas, Trump surrogate and RNC committeeman Dr. Robin Armstrong is using hydroxychloroquine to treat residents of a nursing home who have tested positive for COVID-19. Aside from the fact that the drug is not proven to work, Armstrong did not notify the families of residents that their loved ones were being given an unproven and possibly dangerous drug. Armstrong is operating with the full support of Texas Gov. Abbott.
    • "I probably would not have been able to get the medication had he [Trump] not been talking about it so much," Armstrong said.

Appendix: The rightwing misinformation ring

Dr. Fauci’s refusal to support Trump’s promotion of hydroxychloroquine has put a target on his back. Some in the right wing are pushing the idea that Fauci is an agent of the “deep state” sent to derail Trump’s presidency.
Media Matters: “the president has been exactly right about those two drugs - Hydroxychloroquine - it's just amazing… And the president was right and frankly Fauci was wrong. Because he said the president is speaking as a layman. No, he's speaking as the President of the United States whose responsibility is for the lives and safety of millions of Americans. Whose actions by this president, you know, depend.”
Buzzfeed News: QAnon-supporting radio host Bill Mitchell has been the biggest promoter of the latest theory. For weeks, Mitchell has been spinning a conspiracy theory that Fauci is a “Democrat plant" and nicknamed him “Dr. #FearPorn.” Mitchell’s first tweets about Fauci date back to March 3, when Fauci first suggested the closure of schools and businesses… On the evening of March 20, Mitchell tweeted about Fauci 36 times in 30 minutes. Mitchell was enraged at Fauci going on CNN and publicly disagreeing with Trump’s suggestion that the CDC should allow the use of the anti-malaria drug chloroquine.
As a result of the conspiracy-frenzy, Fauci has reportedly faced threats to his personal safety and was forced to increase his security.
Some other examples of the right-wing’s involvement:
  • Variety: Twitter, stepping up its enforcement of misleading and harmful coronavirus-related claims, required Fox News host Laura Ingraham to delete a tweet from 10 days ago that misrepresented details of an unproven treatment for coronavirus. In the now-deleted tweet from March 20, Ingraham, host of the cable network’s “The Ingraham Angle,” wrote, “Lenox Hill [Hospital] in New York among many hospitals already using Hydroxychloroquine with very promising results. One patient was described as ‘Lazarus’ who was seriously ill from Covid-19, already released.”
  • Business Insider: Twitter removed a message by Rudy Giuliani, President Donald Trump's personal attorney, for spreading misinformation about the coronavirus… In the tweet on Friday, Giuliani quoted conservative youth activist Charlie Kirk, who claimed that an unproven anti-malaria drug, hydroxychloroquine "in at least three international tests was found 100% effective in treating the coronavirus."
  • Wired: Google Bans Infowars Android App Over Coronavirus Claims… [in a video in the app] Jones disputed the need for social distancing, shelter in place, and quarantine efforts meant to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus… Earlier this month, New York attorney general Letitia James sent him a cease and desist notice for saying in videos and on the Infowars website that his DNA Force Plus supplements, Superblue toothpaste, and SilverSol gargle could protect against or treat the novel Coronavirus.
  • Daily Beast: Right-wing figures eager to downplay the coronavirus pandemic’s death toll have hit on a new idea: filming quiet hospital parking lots. Over the weekend, a growing number of pro-Trump personalities decided that the way to prove that the media was overhyping the pandemic was to film places where cars and ambulances show up to drop patients off. If the entrances were quiet and the parking lots mostly empty, they claimed, that was proof that the coronavirus’ effects had been overstated. (alternative source: NBC News)
submitted by rusticgorilla to Keep_Track [link] [comments]

All aboard the JD money train

JD.com is currently down today...and I don't know why, but it makes it a cheaper buy that should print BIG. I don't see anyone talking about it so I thought I'd do a quick DD (my first).
All economic indicators signal that it should skyrocket.
-JD just finished their annual 618 (similar to Amazon's Prime Day) sale event and hit record highs: $34 Billion in Sales
-It signals China's retail sector is opening back up and JD and it's main rival Alibaba are dominating one of the largest consumer markets, beating out competition with a better distribution network, established online presence, and solid logistics infrastructure.
-Also at the culmination of their massive sales event they released their Hong Kong IPO today which skyrocketed: Adding almost $4 billion
-Demand on the market was high, as it sold 133 million shares
-All analysts indicate it staying a strong buy in the market as before the listing went public it was oversubscribed 179 times over by institutional investors and is set to be the biggest HK IPO debut this year.
-BABA (which JD is often compared to as they compete in the same sector) shot to the moon when it released it's HK IPO last year.
-JD is set to be an even bigger debut. And with dual US and HK IPOs is better shielded from localized fluctuations. And in this volatile market I believe investors will be flocking to it as a slightly safer bet.
TLDR It's an established company, they are flushed with an influx of fresh revenue and new cash, and all the numbers are indicating a positive outlook for the near future.
If I'm missing something, feel free to add but I'm confident in JD. I went all in.
10 Calls 6/19
5 Calls 6/26
Different strike prices below 60 (just bought everything I could afford at the time- didn't want to trade on margarine).
$JD looks like a strong bet and I'm hoping it will print tendies 🤑🤑🤑
submitted by Accidental_Ken_M to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

I haven't left my house in 45 days and my House Painting business is Booming

What's up sweatystartup it's been a while since i've dropped in for a post, hope you all are well.
I want to preface this by saying I've done a fairly decent job of documenting my business through posts that can be found on my profile, in short, I've been running a painting business now for 3 years.
My goal from the very beginning of this was to keep my team busy. I didn't care about the profit, I would've broken even if it meant making sure my guys had the option to work. I'm pleased to say that still to this day we're fully staffed and have been making it through this storm. Due to having a newborn, I haven't left my house, I'm writing this to showcase how I've been able to run my painting business at close to full capacity.
Contrary to the popular subcontractor model, I opted for employees. Although more difficult, times like this prove it to be the better decision overall. They're really making this entire process easy because over the last 3 years we've built such a high level of trust and understanding. I have full confidence in them to perform our jobs to the standard of which they would be performed if I were assuming my normal duties of doing job sight visits.
Company background:
Our residential house painting company has 10 employees, and our highest grossing year on paper was $921,000 (last year). the prior years were around $560k and $280k. We had our largest month of production in March of this year of $104k.
I've always been big about helping other contractors develop systems in their business, and, after taking my own medicine I'm reaping the benefits of this tremendously. Our teams are broken up into two teams. One of 4, one of 5. Our model is simple, each team has a project manager responsible for overseeing the jobs, reporting to me, and collecting the payments.
There's been a lot of concern with contractors about the lack of business, however, I've been marketing heavily with HomeAdvisor ever since the inception of my business - the natural thing to do for most business owners is to retreat in times of uncertainty (like this pandemic) but, knowing that this would create a worm hole in the lead distribution for me to capitalize on, I ramped up my spending and have been getting a STEADY flow of house painting leads since.
April has been a BUSY month despite everything that has been going on. We will produce $75k worth of jobs, with another $40k on the books for next month. 50% is new business that has been generated remotely.
With a steady flow of marketing, we're averaging 6-8 estimates for exterior painting PER WEEK. This is extremely surprising to me, but I'm definitely thankful.
Here's how i'm doing it:
Marketing & Sales Adjustments
Production Adjustments

Lessons & Advice
If you're a business owner and in a similar predicament, you have to adjust.
You have to be creative, and you have to get uncomfortable. If you have a team counting on you, my first piece of advice is to price out jobs in a way that guarantees them work. Don't worry about hitting high margins, the focus should be to keep your schedule full.
If you're a potential business owner, employees are a great move.
Building trust and a foundation of loyal people to come to work for your company and to buy into your vision proves to be the best decision time and time again.
There's always a market.
It's about how easy it is for those interested in your product or service to find you. In my specific case, I know a very large majority of the contractors in my area shut off their HomeAdvisor leads. Customers are telling me that I'm the only one who's reached out. I'm betting when everyone else is holding, and i'm getting the rewards.
Thanks for reading, share some ways you've been adjusting in the comments below! If you care to follow me on Instagram, I'm sharing more of my journey there: IG/TradeThrive. I'm also going to be sharing on Paintingbusiness.
submitted by Byobcoach to sweatystartup [link] [comments]

CINEPLEX INC (TSX: $CGX ) STOCK OPPORTUNITY

CINEPLEX INC (TSX: $CGX ) STOCK OPPORTUNITY

Cineplex (TSX: $CGX)
CINEPLEX INC (TSX: $CGX ) STOCK OPPORTUNITY
Another great medium risk but high potential return stock. The stock has taken a beating because of Covid19 & movie theater closures.
Investors think Cineworld's C$34/share buyout offer will be cancelled, yet Reuter's reported, "Cineworld Says No Change In Co's Position On Cineplex Takeover Since March" on April 7. That's double your money at C$11.69 (at post) if it goes through.
Investors also think Cineplex will cancel their monthly $0.15 per share dividend in their next ER that they delayed until June 29, 2020.
Investors are discounting Cineplex's possible rise of online movie rentals to offset their onsite losses.
The odds don't get better than this but do your Due Diligence before investing.
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The Motley Fool described Cineplex as having a "virtual monopoly" over the cinema market in Canada.
#StockPick $CGX -- #ShakingTheTree with #Shorts hitting all the #Bulls #StopLoss down. Easy double or triple opportunity here. Do your #DueDiligence. Good luck to all.
#StockPick #CGX $CGX $CGX.TO
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MY DUE DILIGENCE:

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52 Week Range:
Low: C$6.30 (Coronavirus Crash)
High: C$34.39 (Buyout Offer)
CGX Stock Performance
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Cineplex Inc., formerly known as Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund and Galaxy Entertainment Inc. is a Canadian entertainment company headquartered in Toronto, Ontario. Through its operating subsidiary Cineplex Entertainment LP, Cineplex operates 165 theatres across Canada. The company operates theatres under numerous brands, including Cineplex Cinemas, Cineplex Odeon, SilverCity, Galaxy Cinemas, Cinema City, Famous Players, Scotiabank Theatres and Cineplex VIP Cinemas.
Divisions:
  • Cineplex Odeon
  • Galaxy
  • Famous Players
  • SilverCity
  • Colossus
  • Coliseum
  • Cinema City
  • Scotiabank Theatre
  • Cineplex Cinemas
  • Cineplex VIP Cinemas
Subsidiaries:
  • Cineplex Entertainment LP
  • Player One Amusement Group Inc.
  • Famous Players LP
  • Galaxy Entertainment Inc.
  • Cineplex Media
  • Cineplex Digital Media Inc.
  • Canadian Digital Cinema Partnership (78.2%)
  • Topgolf-Cineplex Canada LP (75%)
  • SCENE LP (50%)
  • Cineplex Entertainment Corporation
  • World Gaming Network Inc. (80%)
  • Alliance Cinemas
2019-present: Proposed acquisition by Cineworld
On December 16, 2019, Cineplex announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by the British cinema operator Cineworld Group, the second-largest film exhibitor worldwide, pending shareholder and regulatory approval. Cineworld would be paying $34 per-share—a 42% premium over Cineplex's share price prior to the announcement, valuing the company at CDN$2.8 billion. Cineworld planned to pay US$1.65 billion, and to fund the remainder by taking on debt.
The sale was approved by Cineplex shareholders in February 2020. Activist shareholder Bluebell Capital Partners called for the Canadian government to block the sale, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. which in turn led to the temporary closure(s) of all Cineplex movie theatres across Canada since March 16, 2020, and up until further notice.
https://www.cineplex.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cineplex_Entertainment
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Cineplex Store
Browse from over 8500 HD movies including the latest releases and earn SCENE points every time you rent or buy. Watch online or look for the Cineplex Store.
https://store.cineplex.com
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ESPORTS: WorldGaming Network (WGN), formerly Virgin Gaming (now owned by Cineplex), is an online video gaming platform that hosts head to head matches, tournaments and ladders for consoles and PC gamers. WorldGaming has had over 3 million gamers register for its platform worldwide which makes it one of the most robust and dynamic global eSports communities. There have been over 6.7 million matches played over 20,000 tournaments held on WorldGaming.com since 2010.
Newzoo: Global esports will top $1 billion in 2020, with China as the top market (Feb 25, 2020):
Global esports revenues will surpass $1 billion in 2020 for the first time — without counting broadcasting platform revenues, according to market researcher Newzoo.
Globally, the total esports audience will grow to 495.0 million people in 2020, Newzoo said. Esports Enthusiasts (people who watch more than once a month) make up 222.9 million of this number.
In 2020, $822.4 million in revenues—or three-quarters of the total market—will come from media rights and sponsorship.
“As the esports market matures, new monetization methods will be implemented and improved upon,” said Remer Rietkerk, head of esports at Newzoo, in the report. “Likewise, the number of local events, leagues, and media rights deals will increase; therefore, we anticipate the average revenue per fan to grow to $5.27 by 2023.”
https://venturebeat.com/2020/02/25/newzoo-global-esports-will-top-1-billion-in-2020-with-china-as-the-top-market
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VIRTUAL REALITY
On September 13, 2018, Cineplex announced that it would acquire a stake in VRStudios—a Seattle-based provider of virtual reality installations, and utilize its equipment for as many as 40 VR centers across the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cineplex_Entertainment
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PLAYDIUM
Playdium is a family entertainment centre chain owned by Cineplex Entertainment through its subsidiary Player One Amusement Group. The flagship location in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada launched as Sega City @ Playdium near Square One Shopping Centre on September 7, 1996. The 11 acres (480,000 sq ft) centre cost CA$17 million to build and included an arcade, batting cages, go-karts and mini-golf. A partnership with Sega GameWorks, it featured many arcade games from that company such as Daytona USA, and eight-player racing setups for Indy 500 (as Virtua Indy) and Manx TT Super Bike. Indy 500 remains available today. In 1999, the centre was renamed to Playdium. The company opened up two more locations in Brampton and Whitby in late 2019.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_One_Amusement_Group#Playdium
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The Rec Room
The Rec Room is a Canadian chain of entertainment restaurants owned by Cineplex Entertainment. First opening in Edmonton in 2016, its locations feature entertainment and recreational attractions such as an arcade, driving simulators, recreational games, and virtual reality, as well as restaurants and bars, and an auditorium with a cinema-style screen, which can be used for concerts and other live events.
The Toronto location features The Void virtual reality attraction. In July 2018, Cineplex announced that it would become the exclusive Canadian franchisee of The Void and add additional locations (such as the Mississauga and West Edmonton Mall locations).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rec_Room
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SCENE (loyalty program)
SCENE is a Canadian loyalty program established in 2007 by Cineplex Entertainment and Scotiabank.
The main reward is a free movie ticket, starting at 1,250 points for a regular or 3D ticket. Over the years, the program has expanded to include a greater variety of rewards, including restaurants and sporting goods.
https://www.scene.ca
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FOOD & BEVERAGES
Cineplex has an Outtakes (French: Restoplex) restaurant in 94 theatres, some which replace previous restaurant partners (Burger King, KFC and New York Fries) and others which introduce restaurants at locations which did not previously feature one. VIP Cinemas and some Xscape locations feature a licensed lounge with more premium offerings compared to Outtakes. Poptopia is a flavoured popcorn restaurant offered in a full-service format at 22 locations. Other Cineplex theatres may feature Poptopia at the concession stand, but only in the caramel corn and/or kettle corn flavours.
Ice cream at Cineplex locations debuted with Baskin-Robbins and TCBY. Beginning in December 2007, Yogen Früz became the preferred partner. On January 1, 2014, Cineplex acquired a 50% stake in Yoyo's Yogurt Café. As of January 2017, 77 Cineplex theatres feature Yoyo's restaurants, while Yogen Fruz is still available in 23 Cineplex theatres while TCBY is available in 16 locations. Cineplex also manages Melt Sweet Creations, an in-house dessert bouqtiue brand targeted at women ages 19-35 debuted in December 2017 at Cineplex Cinemas Queensway and VIP. Melt is available at 13 locations.
Beverages are available in both cold and hot formats. Cold beverages include the Coca-Cola lineup, which replaced the Pepsi lineup used at locations formerly owned by Famous Players. 12 locations feature Coca-Cola Freestyle. Hot beverages include Starbucks as the incumbent provider with 105 locations, all which offer Pike Place Roast coffee (regular or decaf) and Tazo tea. Select locations also offer premium drinks such as caffè mocha or caramel macchiato. Tim Hortons is available as a full-service restaurant in five locations,[75] with Brossard being the only location to offer both Tim Hortons and Starbucks.
In most theatres, Cineplex offers sale of alcohol to 19+ guests in Ontario (18+ in Alberta) similar to the VIP theatres albeit from a selection of beer or cider beverages.
If Aurora Cannabis (ACB) & Cineplex (CGX) partnered up to offer CBD & THC infused Cannabis 2.0 edibles in movie theaters, especially the IMAX & 3D ones, it should do very well. Canadian Cannabis Industry stocks should also do well as I posted earlier Cannabis Stocks Opportunity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cineplex_Entertainment
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RECENT NEWS:

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Cineworld to buy Canada's largest movie theatre chain in $2.8B deal (Dec 16, 2019):
Cineplex’s stock had been trading close to the Cineworld offer price of C$34 per share through early 2020, but has since plunged 40% following the virus outbreak.
Cineplex could lose a potential lifeline if its outstanding debt exceeds more than $725 million. As of December 31, 2019, the debt level was $625 million. The debt might balloon past the threshold with a further lockdown extension.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cineworld-to-buy-canada-s-largest-movie-theatre-chain-in-2-8b-deal-1.4731547
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Cineplex shares fall after short seller raises concerns about Cineworld deal (March 5, 2020):
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cineplex-shares-fall-after-short-seller-raises-concerns-about-cineworld-deal-1.4840173
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Cineworld Dives After Cineplex Activist Urges Rejection of Deal (March 16, 2020):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/cineworld-dives-as-cineplex-activist-urges-canada-to-block-deal
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Cineplex closes locations, provides Cineworld acquisition update (March 17, 2020):
https://mediaincanada.com/2020/03/17/cineplex-to-close-all-canadian-locations
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Cineplex Inc. cuts salaries of full-time employees after part-time layoffs (Mar 23, 2020):
P/T employees laid off in Canada & USA. F/T employees take reduced base salaries & senior executive team takes 80% reduction in pay.
https://www.cp24.com/news/cineplex-inc-cuts-salaries-of-full-time-employees-after-part-time-layoffs-1.4864434
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Cineworld halts dividend and says will 'monitor progress' of its buyout of Cineplex (April 7, 2020):
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cineworld-halts-dividend-and-says-will-monitor-progress-of-its-buyout-of-cineplex-2020-04-07
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Staggered seating, nostalgic films: Cinemark offers a look at movie going post-coronavirus (Apr 15, 2020):
Cinemark, the third-largest movie theater chain in the U.S., hopes to reopen at least some of its doors to the public in July.
With no major movie release until mid-July, theaters could play “library” movies, which are movies that have already previously been released in cinemas, for several weeks.
If social distancing restrictions are still in place the company said it would either sell every other reserved seat in the theater or suspend reservations and just sell 50% of the tickets per theater.
“Even at peak periods of time in a normal environment, our occupancy levels range from 20% to 30% and we can operate profitably during those scenarios...” - CEO Mark Zoradi
He added that Cinemark has seen attendance as low as 10% and still was able to turn a profit.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/cinemark-offers-a-look-at-movie-going-post-coronavirus.html
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North Vancouver's Park & Tilford Cineplex permanently closed (May 20, 2020)
The company closed all 165 theatres across Canada in March due to COVID-19, but the 1,382-seat Brookesbank Avenue location won’t be among those reopening, Cineplex has confirmed.
With Cineplex closing its Lower Lonsdale theatre in 2019, it leaves Park Royal as the only place to catch a big screen flick on the North Shore.
“We thank the community for their patronage over the years, and look forward to welcoming them at neighbouring Cineplex Cinemas Park Royal and VIP,” said Sarah Van Lange, executive director of communications. “I’ll note that our intent is to repurpose the Park & Tilford theatre space, which we’ll have more details on at a later date.”
https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/vancouver-news/park-tilford-cineplex-movie-theatre-permanently-closed-north-vancouver-bc-2365365
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OTHER NEWS & RUMORS:

Why Amazon’s Rumored Buyout of AMC Entertainment Makes Sense (May 12, 2020):
If Amazon can buy AMC, they can most certainly by CGX & dominate & control most of North America's movie theaters. Amazon would then control Hollywood! Why stop there, they should buy Cineworld too.
https://investorplace.com/2020/05/why-amazons-rumored-buyout-of-amc-entertainment-makes-sense
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AMC Entertainment Surges 56% on Report of Talks With Amazon (May 11, 2020):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-entertainment-surges-56-report-133822697.html
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Alert: Cineplex (TSX:CGX) Could Be Acquired by This Incredibly Unlikely Source (May 12, 2020):
Despite Cineworld maintaining its commitment to buy Cineplex, the market has a different opinion. Remember, Cineplex agreed to be acquired at $34 per share. As I type this, the stock trades at $14.44. There’s no way the spread would be that wide, unless investors were writing off the acquisition completely.
Fortunately for beleaguered Cineplex shareholders, a new suitor could very well come along — one virtually nobody sees coming.
Although I think there’s potential for a private equity group or some other deep-pocketed investor taking a run at Cineplex’s cheap assets, there’s a much more interesting suitor on the horizon.
That acquirer is Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).
https://www.fool.ca/2020/05/12/alert-cineplex-tsxcgx-could-be-acquired-by-this-incredibly-unlikely-source
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AMC says it will no longer play Universal Studios films (Apr 28, 2020):
“AMC believes that with this proposed action to go to the home and theaters simultaneously, Universal is breaking the business model and dealings between our two companies,” AMC Chief Executive Officer Adam Aron said in a letter addressed to Universal Studios Chairman Donna Langley.
Universal added that the company looked forward to having “additional private conversations” with AMC but was “disappointed by this seemingly coordinated attempt ... to confuse our position and our actions.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/amc-says-it-will-no-longer-play-universal-studios-films.html
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Cineworld joins AMC in banning films from Universal Studios (April 29, 2020):
Cineworld, the world’s second largest cinema chain, has followed its rival AMC in banning Universal Studios films from its cinemas when they reopen, after the Hollywood film-maker released Trolls On Tour direct to streaming platforms.
“There is a certain system of windows which are a custom in the market and this sets the time difference between the theatrical market and other ancillary markets, among them streaming. Any movie that will not respect this window will not be shown in Cineworld group,” Mooky Greidinger, Cineworld’s chief executive, said on Wednesday.
https://www.ft.com/content/3cc70161-e157-4ff1-bfbd-a886dd6d9af5
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Odeon bans all Universal Pictures films as studio skips cinema releases (Apr 29, 2020):
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/ap29/odeon-bans-all-universal-pictures-films-as-studio-skips-cinema-releases
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AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.
AMC Theatres (originally an abbreviation for American Multi-Cinema; often referred to simply as AMC and known in some countries as AMC Cinemas or AMC Multi-Cinemas) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and is the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Cineworld and Cinemark Theatres.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres
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Cineworld Group PLC
Cineworld is the world’s second largest cinema chain, with 9,518 screens across 790 sites in 11 countries: the UK, the US, Canada, Ireland, Poland, Romania, Israel, Hungary, Czechia, Bulgaria and Slovakia. The group’s primary brands are Regal (in the US), Cineworld and Picturehouse (in the UK & Ireland), Cinema City (throughout Europe) and Yes Planet (in Israel).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cineworld
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And Action! All the Movies We Can't Wait to See in Summer 2020 and Beyond (May 22, 2020):
Fingers crossed that it’ll be safe to step into a theater this summer. If they open, there will be plenty to watch. “Summer hits are the popcorn movies,” says film historian, author and podcast host Leonard Maltin. “They can be the biggest box-office hits of the whole year.”
Rest of 2020:
  • To Wong Foo Thanks for Everything, Julie Newmar - VIP (Jun 1)
  • Unhinged (Jul 1)
  • Tenet (Jul 17)
  • Mulan (Jul 24)
  • Summerland (Jul 31)
  • Random Acts Of Violence (Jul 31)
  • The Spongebob Movie: Sponge on the Run (Aug 7)
  • Sound of Metal (Aug 14)
  • Wonder Woman 1984 (Aug 14)
  • Fatima (Aug 14)
  • The One And Only Ivan (Aug 14)
  • The New Mutants (Aug 20)
  • Bill & Ted Face the Music (Aug 21)
  • Antebellum (Aug 21)
  • Monster Hunter (Sep 4)
  • A Quiet Place Part II (Sep 4)
  • The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It (Sep 11)
  • The King's Man (Sep 18)
  • Candyman (Sep 25)
  • Tom Clancy's Without Remorse (Oct 2)
  • BIOS (Oct 2)
  • Death On The Nile (Oct 9)
  • The Witches (Oct 9)
  • The French Dispatch (Oct 16)
  • Halloween Kills (Oct 16)
  • Snake Eyes (Oct 23)
  • Lord And Miller Connected (Oct 23)
  • Everybody's Talking About Jamie (Oct 23)
  • Come Play (Oct 30)
  • Black Widow (Nov 6)
  • Clifford The Big Red Dog (Nov 13)
  • Deep Water (Nov 13)
  • Godzilla Vs. Kong (Nov 20)
  • Soul (Nov 20)
  • Happiest Season (Nov 20)
  • James Bond ‘No Time To Die’ (Nov 25)
  • Free Guy (Dec 11)
  • Dune (Dec 18)
  • Untitled Coming To America Sequel (Dec 18)
  • West Side Story (Dec 18)
  • Top Gun: Maverick (Dec 23)
  • Untitled Tom & Jerry Film (Dec 23)
  • The Croods 2 (Dec 23)
  • News Of The World (Dec 25)
  • Escape Room 2 (Dec 30)
2021:
  • Mortal Kombat (Jan 15)
  • Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway (Jan 15)
  • 355 (Jan 15)
  • Chaos Walking: The Knife of Never Letting Go (Jan 22)
  • Rumble (Jan 29)
  • Cinderella (Feb 5)
  • Nobody (Feb 26)
  • Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Mar 5)
  • Raya And The Last Dragon (Mar 12)
  • Sony/Marvel Morbius (Mar 19)
  • The Boss Baby 2 (Mar 26)
  • Reminiscence (Apr 16)
  • Ron's Gone Wrong (Apr 23)
  • Shang Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings (May 7)
  • Spiral: From The Book Of Saw (May 21)
  • Cruella (May 28)
  • F9 Fast & Furious (Apr 2)
  • Bob's Burgers (Apr 9)
  • Infinite (May 28)
  • Space Jam 2 (Jul 16)
  • Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar (Jul 16)
  • In the Heights (Jun 18)
  • Minions: The Rise Of Gru (Jul 2)
  • All This Victory (Aug 7)
  • The Woman in the Window (TBD 2021)
  • Blithe Spirit (TBD 2021)
  • The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD 2021)
  • Greyhound (TBD)
& MUCH, MUCH MORE MOVIES than listed coming to the big screens.
THE 65 MOST ANTICIPATED MOVIES OF 2020 (May 20, 2020):
https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/most-anticipated-movies-of-2020
---------------------------------------------
CONCLUSION:
Nothing beats watching a great movie on the big screen in premium format:
  • Prime Seats
  • IMAX
  • UltraAVX
  • D-Box
  • VIP Cinemas
  • 4DX
I'm sick of the congested internet & buffering of online movies & services during Covid19. They need to upgrade the internet infrastructure to 5G & Fiber Optics before it can really grow in my opinion -- especially buffering 4K & 8K movies & future tech that will only require more bandwidth going forward.
Younger people are not afraid of Covid19 like the older crowd. When theaters open, they will rush in to see their favourite movies.
Betting that people won't want to go to movie theaters when they re-open, is like betting the same against live sporting events or music concerts.
No home movie theater can match a real movie theater, even the smaller discount ones, unless you're Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos etc.
With Cineplex's Canadian Monopoly & diversification into other entertainment arenas like eSports & Virtual Reality, as long as they don't go bankrupt & social distancing restrictions are loosened, the stock should increase 2 to 3 times by end of 2021 in my opinion -- especially if the Cineworld Buyout goes as planned or another company like Amazon buys them out for a strong presence & control in Canada.
If a Coronavirus Vaccine is discovered sooner than later, then this stock will rebound accordingly & rapidly -- especially if they don't cancel or even if they do, resume Dividend payments in the future. At current prices, Dividend yield is about 13% per year.
---------------------------------------------
Social distance cinema: drive-in theatres boom – in pictures (May 5, 2020):
We are all social creatures & want to go to movie theater as a social activity, to see & be seen; otherwise, why would Drive In Movie theaters boom during Covid19?
If no one goes out to be seen anymore, then all the Vanity Goods & Services will go under too & we will all dress in sweat pants & T-Shirt -- no need for designer suits & dresses working & staying at home. LOL ;p
https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2020/may/05/social-distance-cinema-drive-in-theatres-boom-coronavirus-in-pictures
---------------------------------------------
Internet Bandwidth Requirements:
Online streaming remains the biggest source of 4K content, led by Netflix and Amazon’s growing selection of original series. But many consumer broadband connections aren’t fast enough to allow reliable 4K streaming.
Home Theater Movie Resolutions:
  • 4K (UHD): 3,840 x 2,160 pixels
  • 1080p (Full HD): 1,920 x 1,080 pixels
  • 720p (HD): 1,280 x 720 pixels
  • 480p (SD): 640 x 480 pixels
  • 8K: 7,680 x 4,320 pixels
For comparison purposes, 70mm film - still considered by many to be the gold standard - is roughly equivalent to a 12K resolution in digital terms, so digital's still got some catching up to do on that score.
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