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H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

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submitted by GiuliettaShop to Popify [link] [comments]

Recession Imminent

Introducing the newest brand of full-blown autism™, I present to you the California / Europe ultimate bear portfolio! Based on a special blend of my extra chromosomes and a spicy mix of hate for California, this portfolio will blow average market returns out of the water based on the following assumptions (Cetaris Paribus):
  1. The world will enter a large economic recession within the next 12 months.
  2. Many Currency values will fall relative to others, however the Euro will be hit among the hardest.
  3. As unprofitable companies no longer have access to liquid credit or financing they will have to restructure their debt in some form.
  4. The highest density of unprofitable companies will continue to exist in California, and local California municipalities will not plan accordingly for a recession.
  5. European markets in general will fall quicker and with more momentum than US equity markets.
Feedback and thoughts requested please.

Symbol & Exchange Description Instrument Position Strategy Allocation (%)
CHF/EUR FOREX ICE Swiss Frank vs Euro Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 10
6EH2021 CME Euro Futures March 2021 Futures Contract Short 10
FXE NYSEARCA Invesco Currency Shares Euro Currency ETF ETF 15JAN 2021 $98 Strike Put Contract Long 10
GBP/EUR FOREX ICE Pound Sterling vs Euro Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 15
USD/EUR FOREX ICE U.S. Dollar vs Euro Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 5
CMF NYSEARCA California Municipal Bond ETF ETF Short 5
PZA NYSEARCA Invesco Nation AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF ETF Short 5
AUD/USD FOREX OANDA Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 5
EZU BATS iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF ETF 15MAY2020 $37 Strike Put Contract Long 15
GDX NYSEARCA VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF ETF 15JAN2021 $35 Strike Call Contract Long 20
Edit: Typo, wrote put instead of call for GDX. Shame tables don't copy over from word / excel and you have to retype yourself.
submitted by chaney3 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[Request] I was looking for some insight on low spread brokers in the US.

Hey everyone.
I’ve been trading crypto for a while and have been out of the forex game for a bit and was hoping to get back into it since the crypto market has been flat for so long but I ran into some trouble when trying to find a new broker. The 2016 ruling on eligible participants put my previous broker out of business and made it impossible for me to trade with certain brokers such as Interactive Brokers.
I was looking for a new broker that has low spreads which seem to have all but died in the US. I’m okay with commissions but the spreads at Oanda, forex.com, TD, and Ally are all way too high for my blood; especially for my bread and butter pair GBP/USD. ATC brokers actually seems like a pretty good brokerage for my needs but after some research I found troubling news with their bankruptcy and I don’t quite understand how an introducer brokerage works. (maybe the answer lies with ATC and you guys can take my mind off the drawbacks.)
I have a pretty decent strategy that after back testing with commissions and spreads equal to ATC’s under sub-par* conditions has max 30% drawdown, avg 15-20% profit per month, and 1.23 sharpe over 10 years. The downside of this is that with my strategy I have a very tight stop, 6-12 pips most of the time. The larger the spread the worse off I am. A 10$ per lot commission is nothing compared to an additional pip of spread in my case.
Can anyone suggest a US brokerage that suits my needs other than ATC or do I have to take the risk on them not going bankrupt again?
*Sub-par trading conditions include 3x the avg spread taken into account as slippage, including Friday as a trading day even though the strategy doesn’t work near the weekend, and optimized for a different timeframe and currency pair.
TL;DR - Is ATC Brokerage the only low spread broker for the US and are they trustworthy?
submitted by GgMc to Forex [link] [comments]

Transitioning to forex from crypto: what fundamentals should I worry about? Any other suggestions?

Hello,
Crypto can be quiet as hell sometimes and it's like squeezing blood from a stone with tiny moves. So, I've been doing Oanda demo using my pro Tradingview account. Only EUUSD so far but thinking of adding JPY, GBP, and CAD to my pairs since they're often recommended to beginners.
Question- how much should I pay attention to FA? Do you guys typically open any currency/forex websites for news before trading, or do you trade blind? In crypto, I open up a chart, mark my levels, look for divergences, and am in a trade within minutes. Not sure if that's possible with forex though.
Do you avoid trading at any times?
Do you guys have any suggestions here, or on any other suggestions transitioning from crypto? It's been fine so far. Starting with $250 account to see how far I can build up while trading crypto for my income.
Thanks.
submitted by CentreLeftRight to Forex [link] [comments]

Exploiting forex arbitrage opportunities using cryptocurrency?

Hi all, I had an interesting thought this morning and would like to get some feedback on the idea.
Say I bought 1 unit of some crypto at a price of USD$100 and then saw that the Euro price was EUR€85. This would represent a EUUSD exchange rate of 1.1764, while the actual exchange rate (at the time of this post) is 1.1811; from what I understand, this is a fairly sizable spread in forex. If I then went from crypto to EUR, I would have effectively bought into EUR at this lower exchange rate and made some money on arbitrage.
My plan ATM is to create a package in python that would scan through a list of crypto exchanges, returning a list of the most favorable exchange rates for USD/X (X could be GBP, JPY, EUR, whatever). It would also be connected to Oanda, comparing these currency pairs to determine if there is an arbitrage opportunity. If so, a USD -> Crypto -> X trade would be executed on the crypto exchange, then an X -> USD trade would be executed on Oanda
Is there something I'm missing here? Part of me thinks that adding the extra element of forex is just overcomplicating things, so I wanted to get some feedback from you all. I also realize that transaction fees would cut into my profits, but large trades could deal with that issue somewhat.
Thanks in advance for the help!
submitted by Kerr809 to algotrading [link] [comments]

USD Bulls

USD weakness is coming to an end and here's why:
  1. DXY accumulating higher lows in daily chart. Broke out of bearish channel. Chart 1
  2. US T-notes, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y, bounced off a higher low. Chart 2
  3. US Bonds, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, bounced off a higher low. Chart 3 (Add comparison to the chart, USGG5YR:IND and USGG10YR:IND)
  4. Long positions decreasing on COT for NZD, JPY, GBP, AUD Chart 4
  5. Channel breakouts in USDCAD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD. AUDUSD touching 200MA support.
  6. Fed rate hike possibly december 2016 priced in at +50%, which chance of hike increasing linearly up to that from now. Link Institutional traders are going to start accumulating long positions. Markets will start to price this in.
USD bulls guys.
submitted by dofubrain to Forex [link] [comments]

Two important dates

Normally, I would not post this as we should all be adults and know how to use a forex calendar and read the news. However, a rash of posts both here and abroad on the net that essentially are asking how to get megapips off of the Brexit vote have me concerned, so here we are. Also, people seem to be overlooking the big elephant in the room, the June FOMC.
Short version:
WED JUNE 15 1400 EST FOMC STATEMENT Whether you like it or not, the USD touches everything you do, like those bad decisions you made in University.
THURSDAY JUNE 23 UK BREXIT VOTE This really could be underwhelming.... or it could be horrific.
If you are a n00b, stop trying to get rich off of the Brexit vote. You need to concentrate on successful, positive trades, not big wins. Go gamble if you want that rush. The Brexit vote is one of those events that can cause such precipitous damage to accounts that Brokers are limiting retail leverage and raising margin rates: (from Oanda)
Dear Huachi
During events such as the upcoming Brexit referendum, market movements can be significant leading to the potential for large profits, but also large losses. To help ensure our customers are more insulated from such movements, we will be temporarily lowering the maximum leverage available on GBP pairs to 20:1 after the market close on June 17, 2016. The affected pairs will return to prior leverage levels after the market close on June 24, 2016.
As a result of this change, you may need to close trades or add funds to your account or risk a possible margin closeout if you currently have an open GBP positions with higher levels of leverage and do not have enough funds in your account to cover the increased margin requirements. To determine the impact this change may have to your margin, you can use OANDA’s margin calculator.
Margin rates on pairs not containing GBP will not be affected.
If you have any questions, you can contact our Client Experience Team whenever markets are open.
Regards, The OANDA Team
And FOMC? The June FOMC is not just any FOMC, it will really be a bellwether for 2016 for the Fed's direction with interest rates until election and Christmas. Will they stick to their word and raise rates? Or change course and have a flat rate, showing their weak hand? There are estimates in both directions (some showing preciptious cliffs, some showing seismic movements back and forth), but again, unless you are confident in your analysis, market intel, and skill set, pay attention because the June FOMC has a potential for a radical whipsaw.
I'll take this down in a few days, it is not a soapbox, but there is some real shit in the market right now that has capacity to wipe out accounts. Noobs watch out, you pros too!
~Huachi
submitted by El_Huachinango to Forex [link] [comments]

GBP/USD Technical & Sentiment Analysis (16 Feb 2014)

Hey guys. I don't usually do GBP/USD, but it's suddenly become one of the most interesting pairs in my opinion, because I believe some very big moves are afoot. I'm going to mostly be looking at the long term view in the context of market positioning, so this might not be all that helpful for scalpers ;)
I want to start with the Daily FX SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) reading for GBP/USD, which is quite something: http://i.imgur.com/pFcbIij.png (© 2014 DailyFX)
There are 9 traders short for every one long. Basically the entire retail crowd is betting against the trend. This means that the majority of orders in the market will be stop losses near current levels.
Also worth a watch is John Kicklighter's video for the week, focusing on the S&P and GBP/USD: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2014/02/14/Forex_Weighing_Reversals_for_SP_500_USDollar_GBPUSD.html
For those new to this kind of thing, sentiment analysis is just analysis using what you can know about market positioning, and how the market generally "feels" about a currency pair. Usually SSI gives quite reliable indications of when a trend will continue, because the majority of retail traders will start betting against it. Their stops add fuel to the fire when it continues. (This is also why I'm short AUD/USD - 2 traders long to every 1 short. Not extreme yet, but it means there are lots of stops below).
Before I get into too much detail there, here's the weekly chart: http://i.imgur.com/Ef4VRQf.png
(Yes I'm long)
I've put some tentative levels there, but I'll do more precise ones in a minute. As you can see, price is breaking out of a long term wedge. It hasn't quite cleared the range yet, and 1.700 is a massive wall to get over. There will be enormous interest at this level, not to mention some extremely large option barriers.
But I think it will break it eventually. Why I think it will go higher? Well, market positioning for one, but also this:
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/24551832014/sterling-at-fresh-3-year-highs-eyes-more-gains/?cid=0000215115
Good analysis piece pointing out that GBP/USD is only about 6% away from the 200WMA. Deviations from this average have historically been much larger. Since price is clearly moving away from this level, I believe we can expect quite a large move as the market unwinds its short positioning.
A look at Oanda's orderbook (or the order boards posted at ForexLive) can give us a more precise view of where these orders are sitting:
http://i.imgur.com/FEn4h3O.png
Current Positioning & Open Orders
As you can see the market is severely short, mostly from the last 100 pips or so. 1.6600 is an area where a lot of positions, both long and short, were established.
There are clusters of buy stops above 1.6700 (small), 1.6750 (bigger) and then above 1.6900 there are two large clusters of buy stops.
Further, there are more buy stops above current price than there are sell orders, meaning that there is ample room for price to continue higher. They're mixed in with some mid-weight sell orders around 1.6800, so this is a level that should provide resistance.
Going a bit lower, we find that bids (both those wanting to initiate new positions and those wanting to take profits on short positions) should provide extreme levels of support.
These are in at about every 10-15 pips between 1.6600 and 1.6500, with the largest cluster being at 1.6500. Going on this alone, buying any dips below 1.66 looks really good.
Beware the retracement
Bear in mind that there are sell stops below 1.6700 - these are the weaker longs or those wishing to enter short on a break below the figure. These could accelerate a correction down to 1.6650 quite quickly.
Here's the 4hr chart, with the largest bids and offers put in. You'll notice that they line up quite nicely with just about any other method of calculating S&R. Dashed lines are larger orders, dotted ones smaller. The big box is where there are too many orders to make lines for :P
http://i.imgur.com/C1htngr.png
Hopefully that's helpful.
Now, there's also a fundamental component to consider. The UK's recovery is looking fairly solid, while the market is very quickly losing its patience with the greenback. Over the last quarter my bullish USD bias has evaporated, as it was predicated on the market not having priced in the full effects of the taper. Now that it appears this is not the case, I have no choice but to change my USD bias to neutral/bearish. The recent soft data also indicates that the recovery is lagging that of the UK's quite badly. The market's reaction to positive US data is generally muted, and when something can't rally on good news, it's usually bad news.
Another thing to note is that the DJ FXCM Dollar Index declined throughout the last dip and recovery in the S&P - one of the longest sustained bearish moves in history. It was only half the magnitude of the other declines of this length, but most other 6-7 day consecutive declines in the dollar have preceded much greater bear waves, not recoveries. The logical thing to do is to look for a USD bounce and sell it.
We need look no further than the S&P to see what's happening here:
http://i.imgur.com/YrCT8tA.png (4hr chart with GBP/USD overlaid in white)
Sterling not quite a safe-haven yet. If 1850 goes in S&P, expect GBP/USD to continue higher. However, Daily RSI on both is currently showing bearish divergence (shown on charts - it's a daily RSI despite it being a 4hr chart)
This means that we might head slightly lower before bouncing. Trend line support for the S&P comes in at around 1775, which would imply quite a serious fall in Cable before buyers really step in.
The level I really like? 1.6475 There is a large cluster of buy orders just below 1.6500, which I believe is where the smart money is looking to enter. This move would flush out a lot of weak longs, leaving plenty of space for new positions. Sellers will also be taking a lot of profits off here, giving us a very good chance of a bounce. From there all it will take is a move back above 1.660 to really get moving.
So longer term I would look to start long positions between 1.6600 and 1.6475, with stops below 1.6250 or the 100DMA
Targets would be completely open. I will look to exit the position if and when speculative sentiment drops back to more natural levels, or perhaps even reverses. Stops will be trailed to lock in profit, but not aggressively.
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

Question: Trading currencies you do not possess

Please excuse the beginner question, I'm a professional developer trying to ascertain if my particular skill set lends itself towards forex trading. Some questions I've not been able to answer from my searching so far.
If I setup an account with say Oanda, and my base currency is in USD, if I place an order for EUR / GBP, it appears to let me place that order. I assume that to do so, it is first making a market trade between UDS / EUR, and when I close my trade it does the reverse and I absorb the spread.
Additionally, if I wanted to trade EUR / GBP, but rather than making that happen via USD -> EUR -> GBP, I wanted to take a route like USD -> CAD -> EUR -> GBP, is that at all possible for me to execute?
Thanks in advance for your patience and expertise.
submitted by fantum13 to Forex [link] [comments]

How to calculate the margin and pip value of CFDs (such as Stock Index), specially, Oanda CFD?

Hi all,
To extend my vision, I start studying CFDs, such as Stock Index, Oil, Commodity, etc. Unlike Forex, I don't understand how margin and pip value is calculated for Stock Index and other CFDs.
I tested with Oanda CFD, seems the margin for 1 unit UK 100 is about $10000, and 1 unit Brent Crude Oil is about $50. Seems the margin for BCO is just the price of the oil, but how about the Stock Index, what's the price?
Thanks
EDIT: the margin I talked above is the total money required, not leveraged. And the leverage provided by Oanda is 50. So the leveraged margin for 1 unit BCO is only $1.
EDIT2: Though on Oanda forum nobody answered my question about what the multipliers are, eventually I realized for fxTrade the multipliers are just 1, but different conttacts are quoted in different currency. FTSE is quoted in GBP, so 1 contract value is 7000 GBP, which is about 10000 USD, which is exactly how I observed. And the pip value is always 1 quote currentcy. For FTSE, the pip value is 1 GBP, which is about 1.5 USD.
submitted by wqking to Forex [link] [comments]

GBP/USD Forex Pair Basics - What it is and How to Trade it Forex Trading GBP/USD: Are the Banks LONG or SHORT on the Pound? phony forex trader analyzes gbp/usd and spx500 - forex trading vlog - 7/9/2020 LIVE Forex Trading GBP/USD: Watch the Trade Start to Finish! WHY I STACK and SCALE FOREX TRADES & Live Trade of GBP/USD

OANDA's currency calculator tools use OANDA Rates ™, the touchstone foreign exchange rates compiled from leading market data contributors.Our rates are trusted and used by major corporations, tax authorities, auditing firms, and individuals around the world. GBP/USD is the forex ticker that shows the value of the British Pound against the US Dollar. It tells traders how many US Dollars are needed to buy a British Pound. The Pound-Dollar is one of the FOREX.com provides traders 91 currency pairs (e.g., EUR/USD) compared to OANDA's 71 available pairs. Forex pairs aside, FOREX.com offers traders access to 4500 CFDs while OANDA has 53 available CFDs, a difference of 4,447. Overall, between FOREX.com and OANDA, FOREX.com is the better forex broker. FOREX.com Review OANDA Review GBP / USD Short term signal As long as the highlighted key area in red is holding as support; My preference is long positions on GBP / USD with a First target @ 1.2580 ; Second target @ 1.2620 While a break and close below the highlighted key area will expose 1.2480 and then 1.2450 Just remember – while the USD/GBP pairing is the most common forex currency trade, you can actually trade many other kinds of currencies as well. But the reason for USB/GBP’s popularity is not just because of how ubiquitous it is, but because there is a wealth of information available on how to trade this currency pairing.

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GBP/USD Forex Pair Basics - What it is and How to Trade it

#forex #forexlifestyle #forextrader Want to join the A1 Trading Community? Follow along with trades taken by our top trading analysts, join our trading chatroom, and access educational content ... Specifically we will be performing a live forex trading analysis on GBP/USD from a swing trading perspective that is a pair which is showing interesting price action, so very useful to follow. READ THE MANIFESTO — https://1percentfxmanifesto.com Hey! In today’s video I will show you how to trade counter trend in the forex market, and most importantly, how to profit!!! Now, there are ... GBP/USD technical analysis of today 13 JULY 2020 For daily forex trading signals and technical analysis on multi-timeframe please subscribe to our channel. Our Facebook Page: https://www.facebook ... Trading Journal - 7/9/2020 About 4 months ago, I started trading the foreign exchange market. This YouTube trading journal is meant to increase my personal a...