Bitcoin: Is It a Hedge, Equity, Currency, or Merely

NuBits vs hedgy (Lock-in the Value of Your Bitcoin Holdings) - how does the latter fare?

NuBits vs hedgy (Lock-in the Value of Your Bitcoin Holdings) - how does the latter fare? submitted by crypto_coiner to NuBits [link] [comments]

Common misconceptions and other random thoughts and observations from an investment professional

Hey community, wanted to share some random thoughts on this exciting time we live in. Unprecedented tear in XBTUSD finally dialing down which is usually a good time for more reflective thought and discussion (vs when things are moving vertically either direction and everyone is freaking out).
--disclaimer and background--
I am not really a frequent Reddit user so bear with me if I'm getting some things wrong here. Not too keen on giving away much personal detail for obvious reasons, so I do not have a compelling way to convince you to believe that I'm not an imposter (and this is healthy - it is generally a good idea to be extremely skeptical of anything anyone says to you when it relates to investing). Anyway, I work at a large size investment firm directly in the capacity of investment strategy and analysis, and I wanted to share some views from the other side. Note that the street is generally a very diverse community with countless differing perspectives, so I should clarify that this is only one perspective from an industry that is literally hinged on trying to make money by having a unique perspective.
Going to go ahead and say that I am not licensed in any way shape or form to actually provide direct financial or wealth management advice to individuals (ironic isn't it?) so please only use anything in this thread as a reference point and nothing more. You can roll your eyes, but the main reason I'm here is because I personally have a serious issue when people provide financial advice/analysis (no matter how good, thoughtful, or experienced they may be) that others then take directly to drive personal decisions without fully understanding how much they could get hurt. For all intents and purposes please just consider everything I say to just be purely an opinion.
Anyway somber bullshit aside, let's jump into it. No particular order - just random thoughts as they come up.
Status quo investment community views on Bitcoin? Generally Bitcoin is disregarded and not taken seriously. It's just too small. The entire market cap of this asset class is maybe a few hundred billion, and the largest shops literally have trillions in assets to deploy, so any one of them could literally just buy into all of it and it would barely even take up much of their overall portfolio of holdings - and if you think about it, buying up an entire crypto is kinda nonsensical... imagine someone just bought all the gold in the world so that nobody could ever use or trade it and just left it in a vault...
Honestly, very few people pay extensive attention to Bitcoin and even fewer are intimidated that it will structurally overhaul society. If anything, there's probably lots of hope for Bitcoin to get bigger so that institutional money can actually get into it. Smaller shops are more nimble and have smaller capital bases that they can deploy into less competitive markets (e.g. small caps, niche, etc.) where you can beat out retail investors that invest part time a lot easier than the trillions floating around managed by overcompetitive professionals.
Note: To clarify, not taken seriously for institutional investment. Lots of guys buy/bet on random stuff with their personal accounts - sports, cryptos, and there's always some numpty that likes to buy scratch cards just because.
Fed and Wall St collusion? Seems to be a lot of sentiment that financial regulators, central banks, etc. exist to serve and collude the financial industry. Couldn't be further from the truth - the regulators are mainly what stands between highly sophisticated professionals from preying on literally everyone else. Literally the exact same way as FDA watching our backs from chemists/pharmaceutical companies and any other field where the average person simply cannot hope to fully understand the inner workings of that industry (If there was no FDA, I as a plebian non-doctor non-chemist non-pharmacist would be terrified). As retail investors, you want to as much power in the hands of regulators as possible, and I can say the disassembly of regulation would be a dream come true for Wall St. - I won't get into why. And look there's always going to be cases of conflict of interest/corruption/misaligned interests, but broadly speaking these govt institutions are in place to represent interests of the common folk, and not the real life Bobby Axelrods of the world (yes Billions is a guilty pleasure of mine, and no it is not a great depiction of how it actually works)**
Recession/TARP/corruption? General consensus across the board is that TARP needed to happen, because a complete confidence collapse causes irreversible structural damage that would devastate a lot of people, but especially the average Joe. Sure, Mr. Hedge Fund had the most (objectively) to lose, but he is still going to have his Ferrari no matter how bad the system collapses, but the regular guy working his 9-5 doesn't have a cash stack to fall onto. Govt still has some loans that have not been paid off, but net net they came ahead something like $50B profit just a few years after they deployed capital. Again let me reiterate there was actually a lot of opposition on this side of the circus at the time as well - a lot of institutions were forced to take capital injections for a herd-immunity-like mechanic because if only select institutions took funding it would be identified as the next Lehman ready to die and the market would devour it. Imagine being the guy running a perfectly healthy business and never taking the reckless positions that your peers did and having to take a billion dollars in debt (and significant interest expenses) just because your colleagues were doing stupid things and you are literally obligated to take it.
Bitcoin/cryptos to replace fiat? Down with the old corrupt system? Maybe potentially in some other shape or form (so many technical flaws with Bitcoin - even lightning and other incremental mods feel like bandaid workarounds and if a crypto were to become primary means of exchange I would be surprised if it is just good old Bitcoin), but you will never escape govt regulation. Silk road was a good example - if the govt has any reason to believe there is unregulated/criminal transactions they will assemble full force teams and RICO everything you have ever touched so fast that your head will spin. Remember that CIA/FBI/police/etc. are all agencies that generally are put into place and designed by the public. We elect sheriffs the same way we self-patrol fraudulent behavior on Reddit and ultimately the need to monitor and regulate currency is driven by something the people want. Again there's always going to be controversies and scandals like NSA revelations and whatnot, but the reason these enforcement agencies exist is because the idea of living in a world where someone could threaten to hurt your family and demand a Bitcoin ransom or pay some hitman to pick off your loved ones until you wire them your life savings is horrifying. Ultimately it is we, us, whether on Wall St. or Main St. that want regulation and protection, and as individuals I think that we will demand that X oversight or regulation infrastructure is put in place to ensure that. There is ALWAYS analogue gap, and it can be as simple as making it hugely illegal to not provide crypto transaction data voluntarily to the govt in the same way being caught literally just possessing a gun with a shaved-off serial number will get you in serious trouble. It comes down to what kind of world we collectively want to live in, and I think that regulation is inevitable because it is something we all align.**
Bitcoin is a good long-term investment? I have no idea. I have been following BTC since ~2013 and it still doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Maybe because even gold doesn't make sense to me. But generally as a non-value-producing asset class (i.e. it literally doesn't grow itself as an entity the way a share of a company does), it can't be that much more different than gold, which I generally perceive as more of a store of value that mainly gets interest during a panic where money is looking for a flight to safety. At this point BTC is driven far more by market sentiment and random govt decisions, which makes it barely discernible from a coin toss.**
Bitcoin/crypto more fair? No corrupt hedgies preying on people? No I think it's actually a lot worse. Look at the spreads that exchanges charge on it - they are horrifyingly large. There's probably a handful of people that collect spreads on this entire industry and they are making a stupid amount of money. I have also anecdotal evidence that there is very sophisticated capital that is arbing the market because it is simultaneously so liquid and held widely by retail investors, although the lack of market size means they are, say, tripling a few million every day rather than making 50% returns on billions every week. And sorry, but technical analysis is absolute garbage and empirically worse than just blind guessing - lots of university papers written here. Advanced machines and algos trade literally every market and they can do infinitely more rigorous and intense calculations on technical factors than any human being could even hope to achieve. False prophets at every turn with technicals, and truth is you will always lose against the team of MIT/Caltech flash boys that are writing equations on glass walls to outmaneuver you in these markets.
Most importantly my bet is that whoever who runs these exchanges is probably frontrunning the market on top of their massive fees. Revelations like government officials trading cryptos ahead of announcing policy that they literally made can cost certain individuals their jobs, but the reality is that the market is so totally unregulated and it's unclear who has access to what data and since it is not illegal to manipulate XBTUSD in all the ways that it is illegal for real markets, I would go ahead and say that even if I tried my hand to crack the Bitcoin market, I am going to lose (BADLY) to a dedicated team running strategies professionally, and any other players that have a fix on the market.
Asymmetry and unregulated markets disadvantage the retail investor far more than they disadvantage most sophisticated capital. This only gets masked if you have something that increased 9000000% because everyone is "making" money.
How to get better at investing?
Read everything. Learn everything. Criticize and be skeptical of everything. This industry is a winner-take-all environment, and everyone is fighting to get that incremental edge. Assume that anyone that volunteers information has an ulterior motive, because they do. If someone is in the middle of panic-selling their holdings, do you think they'll say "you should sell too" to strangers so that they can be crowded out of their liquidation? Be wary of advice or analysis from ANYONE because they have nothing to gain from helping you, but lots to gain by misleading you. Beyond that, some people are just idiots and their intentions aren't malevolent, but they're useless and will feed you irrelevant information.
If you're doing this right you should be actively scanning this text and trying to figure out why I am writing what I am - what kind of trick could I be trying to pull to manipulate strangers into something that garners me personal gain? There's so many layers, you need to discern and always be watching for people that are obviously trying to manipulate you. You shouldn't trust me one bit. I have absolutely nothing to gain from sharing my "advice." Apply this to everything you hear and read (including your "friends"), then go read literally everything that has been written. Then you will start to see the matrix and truly understand how the market looks.
Do you believe in Bitcoin?
Blockchain tech will revolutionize the world. 100%. Already seeing it manifest in certain ways in other industries. I don't know about cryptos. I definitely don't like XBTUSD as a trade. There's a very snotty saying on the street but it rings true time and time again: the moment you hear janitors, truck drivers and your grandma talking about an investment, it's time to get the fuck out of it. Or, alternatively, the moment you see an investment idea on TV or on the news or on any major public platform (cough), this is your time to sell. And it's true - unsophisticated investors are your ride to lock in gains while selling out, and the moment the masses realize there are no more gains left to be had the bottom drops out and it collapses. I know this community hates references to BTC as a bubble, but it has had so much similarity to other similar cases as well as media attention/mainstream coverage profile as other instances. It feels like a pennystock to me, and while there's riches to be made, it's not where I would want to really try and bet on seriously.
However, you cannot deny that BTC is somewhat sticky. There's something cool there that makes it more than just an "idea" from a random pennystock pump, and it's definitely something cool to hold a bit on if you want to support the general idea. For real, actually attractive risk-adjusted returns, I would look elsewhere (honestly with the investment sizes most people would be better off trading things around on Craigslist or something)
BING. Could this whole thread be written by someone from Craigslist trying to boost traffic? The moment I wrote that your alarm bells should be ringing. Again, read everything but trust no one. Why the fuck did this guy say "you could probably make more money on _ than BTC?" Stay vigilant. The world isn't evil and out to get you, but everyone does something for a reason. (In my case I just vomited on the page and noticed it sounded funny/odd. I have no idea of Craigslist is a profitable side-hobby... personally I would be afraid of getting stabbed.)
Those are all my random thoughts for now. If you have any questions feel free to ask. Please post on the thread as I have a strong belief in open dialogue and discussions and would like to share any responses broadly. It's an exciting time we live in, so have fun, but please make sure you design your playbook responsibly and invest with discipline.
submitted by sell_for_a_penny to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Be aware, troll liars have nothing left except to talk about Gox trustee "dumpage"

in a post mortem scare tactic...when the reality is he has only 164k BTC left and now we know it was forced selling and very unprofessional selling. Go look at the avg daily volume folks let alone avg weekly value if you think the sky is falling. LOL. Let alone that moron should have sold in block trades off exchange, which is likely gonna happen now as the drapers of the world call this fool out. I believe this stupid trustee has fufilled his main duty to get gox people whole at 400 buck valuation. The remaining blocks might remain off exchange for a long time or be bought by all the new hedgie/funds/ coinbase institutional accounts looking to get into the business
These negative people are on here posting from their pjs are fakes or relentless liars who need crypto aka btc/ltc/bch/eth down. Likely are permabear types like you see on chris duane or zerohedge channel. Do not trust them and their ceaseless fud troll posts and replies. They are pathetic people based on my observations and interactions. They don't even know how to pull out a chart and know which way the LT trend is.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
It also looks like he was the bch relentless seller so bch is high reward from here probably more so
I've seen posts of people once they get their court approved money back, guess what they are gonna do with it? Yep, reinvest
PS: Here's your chance LLOYD and JAMIE. Call up the dude and relieve him of his position. oh wait, he won't be selling so cheap next time as court order is fufilled/forced liquidation was the whole reason of this 2 months sell of
submitted by Libertymark to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Polkadot, PoUW, The Cost Of Learning As A Causal Factor For heterogeneous Beliefs [Exploring The Bubble Mindset]

1)Interledger vs Polkadot? Wood to the rescue Polkadot is off to a good start. At this point, it is unclear how viable such an interchain solution is going to be by the time they intend to launch but I question the community support of Interledger. While IL certainly has a huge lead regarding interchain transfers, it lacks the incentive layer to be used by people outside larger organizations. IL also mainly focuses on money transfers. Paritytech in my opinion has a grander vision and want to apply the same concept not just to currencies but applications and data processing. Therfore, it could be a viable LT investment as a missing link.
While Polkadot is going to have a pretty rich valuation if they can make it work it could become a pretty useful network and staking could be really a great way to earn some passive income.
2) Will PoUW Displace PoW/PoS? Speaking of usefulness, some guy on HackerNews recently brought it up again (anyone read the story, cant find the link): Proof-of-Useful-Work - this is basically the reason why I have always and will always consider Bitcoin a ponzi-like scheme that will eventually crash big time because technological advancement will fully disrupt it. Proof-of-Useful-Work is the future. While Bitcoin could theoretically adopt PoUW, I think it is more likely that miners will start mining on a new chain that is built from the ground up to incorporate that and in 2017 there is no lack of possible contenders. BTC can always retain some value because of the money that has been invested so far into infrastructure but in my opinion currently speculators suffer from mass-delusion and hot hand fallacy and this opinion won't change unless I see Bitcoin devs working on this specific problem.
My recommendation if you have to gamble, at least gamble on ETH which has far better odds of making it through the next 5 years. So for me BTC will always remain a ping pong trade, it most definitely is not a longterm hold and I would urge any LTs to really think it through and take a look at historic bubbles and learn about the bubble mindset.
At current valuations there are far better investment opportunities out there and 12 months from now there will be many more in the stock markets (If any interest we could discuss in a separate thread, I have already started my watchlist for 2018/2019). Hopefully this next recession is going to come sooner than later. Bitcoin's first recession will ultimately show how resilient it really is (my money is on it not faring well).
3)Within The Bubble Mindset - Is Shorting Really Enticing Enough Yet? How Costly Is Learning In This Market?
Bitcoin is without question one of the greatest bubbles of all time. The really tough question is not whether Bitcoin is a bubble or not, it is the question of how long it can last.
So I asked for how long can this state persist? Why are not more people realizing that Bitcoin won't work over the long-term, why are people not skeptical? In this paper https://www.princeton.edu/~wxiong/papers/review.pdf the author writes about the cost of learning. I believe this can also be applied to Bitcoin:
heterogeneous beliefs can persist in an environment where learning is costly and endogenous
If you start shorting Bitcoin in this environment it will likely cost you money if you aren't a trader who knows how to read the market. Rather than trade, a large majority simply adopts the "hold-and-see" approach which so far has been the correct strategy.
It is not unreasonable to assume that we may need a whole lot more upside before the downside is enticing enough for people to wager on it. Also exchanges need to make it easier to take large short positions. When that happens and you read about it on some sites that exchanges make shorting more accessible to hedgies, it will trigger a huge cascade. When that is going to happen is anyone's best guess.
Also see my list of potential triggers for early disillusionment: https://www.reddit.com/ETHInsidecomments/6zm07e/biweekly_rethinsider_discussion_september_12_2017/dn6spgn/
submitted by etheraddict88 to ETHInsider [link] [comments]

NFT Spotlight #16 - Lumi Wallet for your crypto valuables and NFTs

What is this Lumi?

The Lumi Wallet is powered by a team of crypto enthusiasts who figured out that digital assets need a proper digital wallet just like currencies do. It’s a no brainer, but somebody had to do it!

What is Lumi working on?

Lumi is a cryptocurrency storage which supports the most popular coins and tokens providing users with a high security level and a great user interface. It is a smoothly designed, completely anonymous and easy-to-use wallet. Apart from A-list cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum, the Lumi Wallet also provides storage and management options for furry and galactic assets like Crypto Detective, Blockchain Cuties, and 0x Universe. All consolidated in one single wallet.

How do they do it?

The key is security combined with a great interface. Storing and managing you crypto assets is no joke, and Lumi Wallet provides private key creation directly on your device instead of on servers, which brings the security of your wallet straight to your hands.
A well-structured and safe back-end doesn't come solo, though. It is paired with an intuitive and easy to use front-end interface, making the Lumi Wallet an ideal asset management tool for both beginners as well as industry masters. As Lumi implemented the NFT and dapp layers to its spectrum of wallet functionalities, crypto collectors got a new tool on the market that helps them manage their collectibles in a fun but safe way.

Lumi wallet in action

You can go with either web or mobile version - or both! Create an account of Lumi Wallet online, and as long as you know your credentials, you can access your wallet anytime and from anywhere. You can even add your existing wallet to your Lumi account on the Import Wallet section. If you prefer living your life on the go or from the palm of your hand, go with the AppStore or Google Play mobile app wallet to store, send, review and exchange your BTC, BCH, ETH, and several tokens.
For all the avid collectors out there, the Lumi Collect mobile app is embracing the non-fungible NFT collectibles. Both AppStore and Google Play open the door to non-fungibility, just download the app and add new collectibles to your wallet.

Non-fungible Q&A

We're happy to have Lumi Wallet's CEO, Diana Furman, join our NFT Series, and see her adding a share of non-fungible views.
1. What do you expect to see in 10-years time in the non-fungible field? The most creative answers count double.
We hope for a platform that will be able to tokenize and neuro-evaluate any digital entity. The value will depend on the type of entity itself, as well as the description provided by the owner. Also, chances are there might appear a separate and universal blockchain (w/its own tokens) for NFTs. Different from ETH, EOS, and so on. Or, as an option, all of the existing NFT blockchain tokens will become mutually and instantly convertible.
Probably, there will be a new class of NFTs that allows for shared ownership, and its original value would also be shared. A whole new industry for presenting digital art could emerge. What’s the point in owning a piece of art or another collectible if you cannot display it in a proper way and enjoy what you’ve spent hard-earned money on? NFTs can put an end to the era of digital piracy as they can act as licenses and regulators. Maybe, our digital personalities will be presented on the web as NFT.
2. In terms of other NFT projects, which one would you nominate for a Golden Globe and why?
I would nominate Hedgie because of their different approach to blockchain gaming projects and bringing crypto into real life in the simplest way.
3. What would you rather have - your pet cat tokenized on the blockchain or a tangible, strokable 3D-version of your favorite crypto-asset?
Strokable 3D-version of my favorite crypto-asset because most of my life is online anyway so would be nice to have something “real” outside the web.
4. A CryptoKitty and an Axie enter the ring. Who wins?
After a few seconds of fighting, they will probably get bored and sit up to discuss what other amazing things can be done within blockchain gaming field.
5. Finish the joke: "Lumi walks into a bar..."
Lumi walks into a bar, spots a very sad little dapp sitting alone in the corner, buys two drinks, walks over to the dapp’s table and says: “So I’ve heard you’ve got some wallet integration problems?”
submitted by 0xcert to u/0xcert [link] [comments]

05-02 01:43 - 'Common misconceptions and other random thoughts and observations from an investment professional' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/sell_for_a_penny removed from /r/Bitcoin within 22-32min

'''
Hey community, wanted to share some random thoughts on this exciting time we live in. Unprecedented tear in XBTUSD finally dialing down which is usually a good time for more reflective thought and discussion (vs when things are moving vertically either direction and everyone is freaking out).
--disclaimer and background--
I am not really a frequent Reddit user so bear with me if I'm getting some things wrong here. Not too keen on giving away much personal detail for obvious reasons, so I do not have a compelling way to convince you to believe that I'm not an imposter (and this is healthy - it is generally a good idea to be extremely skeptical of anything anyone says to you when it relates to investing). Anyway, I work at a large size investment firm directly in the capacity of investment strategy and analysis, and I wanted to share some views from the other side. Note that the street is generally a very diverse community with countless differing perspectives, so I should clarify that this is only one perspective from an industry that is literally hinged on trying to make money by having a unique perspective.
Going to go ahead and say that I am not licensed in any way shape or form to actually provide direct financial or wealth management advice to individuals (ironic isn't it?) so please only use anything in this thread as a reference point and nothing more. You can roll your eyes, but the main reason I'm here is because I personally have a serious issue when people provide financial advice/analysis (no matter how good, thoughtful, or experienced they may be) that others then take directly to drive personal decisions without fully understanding how much they could get hurt. For all intents and purposes please just consider everything I say to just be purely an opinion.
Anyway somber bullshit aside, let's jump into it. No particular order - just random thoughts as they come up.
Status quo investment community views on Bitcoin? Generally Bitcoin is disregarded and not taken seriously. The entire market cap of this asset class is maybe a few hundred billion, and the largest shops literally have trillions in assets to deploy, so any one of them could literally just buy into all of it and it would barely even take up much of their overall portfolio of holdings - and if you think about it, buying up an entire crypto is kinda nonsensical... imagine someone just bought all the gold in the world so that nobody could ever use or trade it and just left it in a vault...
Honestly, very few people pay extensive attention to Bitcoin and even fewer are intimidated that it will structurally overhaul society. If anything, there's probably lots of hope for Bitcoin to get bigger so that institutional money can actually get into it. Smaller shops are more nimble and have smaller capital bases that they can deploy into less competitive markets (e.g. small caps, niche, etc.) where you can beat out retail investors that invest part time a lot easier than the trillions floating around managed by overcompetitive professionals.
Note: To clarify, not taken seriously for institutional investment. Lots of guys buy/bet on random stuff with their personal accounts - sports, cryptos, and there's always some numpty that likes to buy scratch cards just because.
Fed and Wall St collusion? Seems to be a lot of sentiment that financial regulators, central banks, etc. exist to serve and collude the financial industry. Couldn't be further from the truth - the regulators are mainly what stands between highly sophisticated professionals from preying on literally everyone else. Literally the exact same way as FDA watching our backs from chemists/pharmaceutical companies and any other field where the average person simply cannot hope to fully understand the inner workings of that industry (If there was no FDA, I as a plebian non-doctor non-chemist non-pharmacist would be terrified). As retail investors, you want to as much power in the hands of regulators as possible, and I can say the disassembly of regulation would be a dream come true for Wall St. - I won't get into why. And look there's always going to be cases of conflict of interest/corruption/misaligned interests, but broadly speaking these govt institutions are in place to represent interests of the common folk, and not the real life Bobby Axelrods of the world (yes Billions is a guilty pleasure of mine, and no it is not a great depiction of how it actually works)**
Recession/TARP/corruption? General consensus across the board is that TARP needed to happen, because a complete confidence collapse causes irreversible structural damage that would devastate a lot of people, but especially the average Joe. Sure, Mr. Hedge Fund had the most (objectively) to lose, but he is still going to have his Ferrari no matter how bad the system collapses, but the regular guy working his 9-5 doesn't have a cash stack to fall onto. Govt still has some loans that have not been paid off, but net net they came ahead something like $50B profit just a few years after they deployed capital. Again let me reiterate there was actually a lot of opposition on this side of the circus at the time as well - a lot of institutions were forced to take capital injections for a herd-immunity-like mechanic because if only select institutions took funding it would be identified as the next Lehman ready to die and the market would devour it. Imagine being the guy running a perfectly healthy business and never taking the reckless positions that your peers did and having to take a billion dollars in debt (and significant interest expenses) just because your colleagues were doing stupid things and you are literally obligated to take it.
Bitcoin/cryptos to replace fiat? Down with the old corrupt system? Maybe potentially in some other shape or form (so many technical flaws with Bitcoin - even lightning and other incremental mods feel like bandaid workarounds and if a crypto were to become primary means of exchange I would be surprised if it is just good old Bitcoin), but you will never escape govt regulation. Silk road was a good example - if the govt has any reason to believe there is unregulated/criminal transactions they will assemble full force teams and RICO everything you have ever touched so fast that your head will spin. Remember that CIA/FBI/police/etc. are all agencies that generally are put into place and designed by the public. We elect sheriffs the same way we self-patrol fraudulent behavior on Reddit and ultimately the need to monitor and regulate currency is driven by something the people want. Again there's always going to be controversies and scandals like NSA revelations and whatnot, but the reason these enforcement agencies exist is because the idea of living in a world where someone could threaten to hurt your family and demand a Bitcoin ransom or pay some hitman to pick off your loved ones until you wire them your life savings is horrifying. Ultimately it is we, us, whether on Wall St. or Main St. that want regulation and protection, and as individuals I think that we will demand that X oversight or regulation infrastructure is put in place to ensure that. There is ALWAYS analogue gap, and it can be as simple as making it hugely illegal to not provide crypto transaction data voluntarily to the govt in the same way being caught literally just possessing a gun with a shaved-off serial number will get you in serious trouble. It comes down to what kind of world we collectively want to live in, and I think that regulation is inevitable because it is something we all align.**
Bitcoin is a good long-term investment? I have no idea. I have been following BTC since ~2013 and it still doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Maybe because even gold doesn't make sense to me. But generally as a non-value-producing asset class (i.e. it literally doesn't grow itself as an entity the way a share of a company does), it can't be that much more different than gold, which I generally perceive as more of a store of value that mainly gets interest during a panic where money is looking for a flight to safety. At this point BTC is driven far more by market sentiment and random govt decisions, which makes it barely discernible from a coin toss.**
Bitcoin/crypto more fair? No corrupt hedgies preying on people? No I think it's actually a lot worse. Look at the spreads that exchanges charge on it - they are horrifyingly large. There's probably a handful of people that collect spreads on this entire industry and they are making a stupid amount of money. I have also anecdotal evidence that there is very sophisticated capital that is arbing the market because it is simultaneously so liquid and held widely by retail investors, although the lack of market size means they are, say, tripling a few million every day rather than making 50% returns on billions every week. And sorry, but technical analysis is absolute garbage and empirically worse than just blind guessing - lots of university papers written here. Advanced machines and algos trade literally every market and they can do infinitely more rigorous and intense calculations on technical factors than any human being could even hope to achieve. False prophets at every turn with technicals, and truth is you will always lose against the team of MIT/Caltech flash boys that are writing equations on glass walls to outmaneuver you in these markets.
Most importantly my bet is that whoever who runs these exchanges is probably frontrunning the market on top of their massive fees. Revelations like government officials trading cryptos ahead of announcing policy that they literally made can cost certain individuals their jobs, but the reality is that the market is so totally unregulated and it's unclear who has access to what data and since it is not illegal to manipulate XBTUSD in all the ways that it is illegal for real markets, I would go ahead and say that even if I tried my hand to crack the Bitcoin market, I am going to lose (BADLY) to a dedicated team running strategies professionally, and any other players that have a fix on the market.
Asymmetry and unregulated markets disadvantage the retail investor far more than they disadvantage most sophisticated capital. This only gets masked if you have something that increased 9000000% because everyone is "making" money.
How to get better at investing?
Read everything. Learn everything. Criticize and be skeptical of everything. This industry is a winner-take-all environment, and everyone is fighting to get that incremental edge. Assume that anyone that volunteers information has an ulterior motive, because they do. If someone is in the middle of panic-selling their holdings, do you think they'll say "you should sell too" to strangers so that they can be crowded out of their liquidation? Be wary of advice or analysis from ANYONE because they have nothing to gain from helping you, but lots to gain by misleading you. Beyond that, some people are just idiots and their intentions aren't malevolent, but they're useless and will feed you irrelevant information.
If you're doing this right you should be actively scanning this text and trying to figure out why I am writing what I am - what kind of trick could I be trying to pull to manipulate strangers into something that garners me personal gain? There's so many layers, you need to discern and always be watching for people that are obviously trying to manipulate you. You shouldn't trust me one bit. I have absolutely nothing to gain from sharing my "advice." Apply this to everything you hear and read (including your "friends"), then go read literally everything that has been written. Then you will start to see the matrix and truly understand how the market looks.
Do you believe in Bitcoin?
Blockchain tech will revolutionize the world. 100%. Already seeing it manifest in certain ways in other industries. I don't know about cryptos. I definitely don't like XBTUSD as a trade. There's a very snotty saying on the street but it rings true time and time again: the moment you hear janitors, truck drivers and your grandma talking about an investment, it's time to get the fuck out of it. Or, alternatively, the moment you see an investment idea on TV or on the news or on any major public platform (cough), this is your time to sell. And it's true - unsophisticated investors are your ride to lock in gains while selling out, and the moment the masses realize there are no more gains left to be had the bottom drops out and it collapses. I know this community hates references to BTC as a bubble, but it has had so much similarity to other similar cases as well as media attention/mainstream coverage profile as other instances. It feels like a pennystock to me, and while there's riches to be made, it's not where I would want to really try and bet on seriously.
However, you cannot deny that BTC is somewhat sticky. There's something cool there that makes it more than just an "idea" from a random pennystock pump, and it's definitely something cool to hold a bit on if you want to support the general idea. For real, actually attractive risk-adjusted returns, I would look elsewhere (honestly with the investment sizes most people would be better off trading things around on Craigslist or something)
BING. Could this whole thread be written by someone from Craigslist trying to boost traffic? The moment I wrote that your alarm bells should be ringing. Again, read everything but trust no one. Why the fuck did this guy say "you could probably make more money on _ than BTC?" Stay vigilant. The world isn't evil and out to get you, but everyone does something for a reason. (In my case I just vomited on the page and noticed it sounded funny/odd. I have no idea of Craigslist is a profitable side-hobby... personally I would be afraid of getting stabbed.)
Those are all my random thoughts for now. If you have any questions feel free to ask. Please post on the thread as I have a strong belief in public dissemination of information and would like to share any responses broadly. It's an exciting time we live in, so have fun, but please make design your playbook responsibly and invest with discipline.
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Common misconceptions and other random thoughts and observations from an investment professional
Go1dfish undelete link
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Author: sell_for_a_penny
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

eating bitcoin volatility for users

there are a lot of companies focused on eating the volatility of bitcoin value for companies, but what about users? are there any companies publicly working on this? my mom won't use a bitcoin wallet if it means the next day she might have some euros less.
i have been thinking about this, and the only solution i can think of requires colored coins in some capacity, but maybe something could be done with multi-sig like hedgy is doing?
this seems to me a very crucial problem to solve for customer adoption... what are your thoughts?
submitted by riclas to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

The Never Ending Poem...

So I am Oscar Busker, and I rhyme with everything and I do it entertaining, and you tip me with some bling Now this needs some explanation, it is told in poetry and I set my hat out for you, It is easy, as you see! If I win a silly Oscar, well,…who really gives a rip? Just express myself in this way, and you toss a little tip So how’s one tip in cyber? And in simple business join? Using currency of future, simply calling it “BITCOIN”
So formalities behind us, let adventure now begin And I hook you line and sinker with poetic thick and thin If you know not what is Bitcoin, never mind: It soon be clear for I show you what is freedom, when the dollar disappear! Take a look at my example, for I bought no Bitcoin yet and I simply did believe in that my prospect I will get And my talent I presented, and you, reader loved it too! And you started my adventure, making income really true! Sure! It isn’t very much yet, but I carry on my way, and endear myself to reader teaching Bitcoin every day I was taught in times long gone now, how to pinch a penny then, and have learned that wealth is gained, saving Dollar, Mark, or Yen.
Only this is somewhat different, as I hold no purse of coin rather secretly have record in my wallet called Bitcoin! No one else has access to it, and will never, ever find For it cannot be decoded, not by anyone mankind Oh you argue that the government, will eventually find out but it truly is not possible, as they do not have the clout. For each owner of a Bitcoin, shares in network of the same, and that vast computer network, is impossible to gain (by govt.) and they wring their hands in worry, for the power they have lost, and they only own the dollar, which will be their biggest loss. :)
So how could one not be happy, when no dollar one did spend?, yet one offers product “out there”, and ones value is attained! So I give a happy sidekick, knowing future is secure and I simply busk away now and poetically endure. So, Day one has come and gone now, and I write now for day two and the Bitcoin has gone crazy, when the EU broke in two. not to worry, not at all! for that currency must fall, while the Bitcoin’s getting itchy, wait for rolling of the ball! why are people still so hedgy?, Can they not foresee the hope? while they may not see in distance, they can always use the scope! As explorer ventured forth then, for his riches to attain, so we too must take a step now, and by that our hope we gain. My poetic interaction, in attempt to entertain serves in round-about perfection, also Bitcoin to explain! So I must not make this boring, and in diligence endure for my audience can’t tire, of my craft, so fun and pure. and let’s keep the learning process, happening in point by point and as lights o’r head flash brighter, and you toss me a Bitcoin! Take a look around at finance, isn’t it in royal distress? how can anyone foresee us getting out of this BIG MESS? When the powers that control us, hoard as much as possible can’t we circumvent their efforts?, and be free of their control? enter now: the one and only–way to take back our control! Where no other mortal out there can explore us like a mole! Government can not get nosy, for they can’t decode our nest and how many of you out there know that THIS IS FOR THE BEST! and the thief who wants our nest egg, cannot see what’s in our brain, and may well discover virtues, choosing honest wealthy gain, Bitcoin gives us back control, and and will not allow a thief, simply renders us more honest, giving justice some relief. and the more of us, the merrier, for we now conduct exchange, and more products on the table, ever more expand in range. So I see me on a soap box, and poetically expound, and my audience surround me, sit in circle all around, for mankind is getting hungry for economy to turn and for freedom from all lo$$e$, they with hope on hope do yearn. So I smile in grateful “thank you”, as you fill my empty hat giving me a buskers living, and I thank y’all for that!
now, who is he who by mistake thinks Bitcoin’s somehow dead??? have they not done proper research?, to educate instead? it’s plain and simple, look on graph! correlation line does rise! and deviating not one bit, in steady upward rise.
So don’t go telling, “it is dead” when clearly it is not! instead promote reality, start filling your own pot! Why is your cup at “half empty”, when mine is “halfway full”? It’s all the way you look at things, that is “the golden rule!”
Read more from Oscar Busker Here: https://oscarbusker.wordpress.com/
https://www.reddit.com/OCPoetry/comments/4t34nb/a_goodbye/
https://www.reddit.com/OCPoetry/comments/4t1u7s/1984/
https://www.reddit.com/OCPoetry/comments/4t5a6q/ever_inching_edge/
submitted by OscarBusker to OCPoetry [link] [comments]

Start the New Year off with some Free Bitcoin! Just one week left to enter Hedgy's Trading Challenge.

If you aren't familiar with Hedgy, we are building a platform for smart contracts in the financial sector. Our first offering is a vanilla Bitcoin Forward that uses 2/3 multi-sig for posting collateral. Our goal is to help marketplace participants address price volatility and exchange/counter-party risk.
In anticipation of our live product launch, we are hosting a Trading Challenge to gather feedback, grow our userbase, and familiarize the community with our offering. All contracts created for this purpose use a demo coin (BCY) which has no real value.

Prizes

Prizes of $600, $400, and $200 will be awarded to the top 3 contracts on both the buy-side and sell-side. Six prizes in all for a total of $2400. Prizes will be awarded in BTC, with the conversion computed using Tradeblock's 2-hour TWAP the moment the challenge ends.

Entries and Scoring

For each entry, you only need to choose a direction (long/short), and a contract duration. The forward price is always set to the current XBX spot upon creation.
Each entry's score is computed using the ratio [Forward Price / Settlement Price]. For settlement price, we use the 2-hour TWAP at maturity.
Get Started!

Additional Entries

Each user is given only one entry by default, but you may earn up to three additional entries by completing any of the following tasks (+1 entry per task):
Note: The P/L of your entries is not cumulative -- they are each given an independent rank on the leaderboard.

Eligibility

The only information you need to provide to enter is a valid email and working phone number. But you must fully verify before accepting any prize. You can wait to complete verification until the contest is over, as long as you are confident you will pass KYC checks.
Any attempts to circumvent the rules may result in a disqualification at the sole discretion of Hedgy. This includes, but is not limited to, creating more than one account, attempting to exploit our system, and any other malicious actions.

Disclaimer

This post is a summary of the Full Rules provided for convenience only, and holds no enforcement power in the Trading Challenge.

Get Started!

submitted by drewshaver to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Five reasons (some early) consumers will spend bitcoin and not just hoard...

One of the biggest objections to bitcoin goes something like this:
"Why would I transact in a currency that may be worth significantly more next week? I could use a single bitcoin to buy a product today and then one week from now, I technically have paid that person much more than I intended. Seems like a big incentive to hold right now vs. transact, no?"
While I agree that this limitation will prevent widespread consumer adoption...at first, we don't need to go from 0 to 100 mph overnight. And it isn't that hard to make incremental progress on such a small base. Five reasons that we will start to see steadily increasing transaction volumes:
1) Diversification: Early purchases will be made by investors who have hit the jackpot as early adopters and can afford to be conspicuous consumers. (Joyrides to outer space?) Rather than diversifying away from bitcoin by cashing out through an exchange, why not instead buy things from merchants, save the 1% in conversion fees, and help demonstrate the utility of the currency to the broader market? That decision could in turn attract more speculators to pile into bitcoin and drive up the value of remaining balances.
2) Tax Benefits: This diversification by consumption is bound to happen for one simple reason: tax avoidance. First of all, it will take the IRS some time to properly define how tax rates should apply to investors who buy goods and services with appreciated securities such as bitcoin. (Senators suggested as much last week.) And even when they do define policy, it will prove very difficult in practice to levy taxes on gains that are not first converted to USD. On the other hand, it will be relatively easy to crack down on tax evaders who buy and sell through the exchanges.
3) Gifts: People who are making secret (not necessarily illicit) purchases will do so via bitcoin rather than credit card or check. Over 95% of bitcoin users are males, some of them married or in serious relationships. If you want to buy something discretely, do it with bitcoin when your significant other can't check your credit card statements (Bitcoin Friday is coming up!)
4) Bitcoin Replacement: I'm willing to bet that Coinbase comes up with an "instant replacement" program that serves as the inverse of today's "instant conversion" tool for merchants. Wallet holders with Coinbase can already place recurring buy orders through the site, so it might just be a matter of time before they also have the option to replenish the exact amount that they spend in a given transaction. Why go through that hassle instead of paying with a credit/debit card? Merchant discounts.
5) Hedge Fund "FDIC": It also seems like it will be just a matter of time before one or more enterprising hedge funds steps up to the plate and guarantees the value of bitcoin for some subset of consumers…like a private sector FDIC. Even if one of the major funds threw $50 million into a pool to test the waters it could send enormous positive signals to the rest of the community. In the event of gains, maybe the user and the hedge funds split 50-50. In return, the hedge fund could backstop any potential losses. If you are a bitcoin bull, this seems like a helluva deal for both hedgies and consumers.
These stimuli won’t solve bitcoin's volatility problems any time soon, but they might prove to be the abutment (new word of the day!) in the bridge from today's reality to a future where bitcoin is a mainstream global currency. In the meantime, bitcoin will continue to trade like a speculative investment rather than a currency. The majority of interest still comes from the investment community. But there is a path to greater consumer adoption.
More content like this by subscribing to my "Daily Bit" digest (email [email protected]) or following me on twitter).
submitted by twobitidiot to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Raoul Pal on Bitcoin as a Global Recession Hedge Billionaire hedge fund investor Paul Tudor Jones: Bitcoin is a 'great speculation' Why Does Bitcoin Have Value? - D-Central Is BITCOIN a Good Hedge Against Inflation? (Fundamental Value Investor POV) BITCOIN COUNTDOWN!! LESS THAN 72 HOURS BEFORE THIS PATTERN ENDS  2 BITCOIN CHARTS YOU MUST SEE

The digital gold narrative centers on Bitcoin’s 21 million coin limit built into the original protocol. Because Bitcoin has a limited supply and has consensus-based value, it shares some properties with gold. In fact, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz, and others have suggested that Bitcoin is ‘digital gold’.That is, it shares the same functional properties as gold Short-selling bitcoin. Short-selling in general is the practice of taking a position to sell an asset, believing that it will fall in value and you can buy it back for a lower price – profiting from the difference.. Short-selling bitcoin is a common hedge against a long exposure, whether this is a bitcoin holding or a speculative trade. If you already own bitcoin, but believe it is due to Hedgy is a bitcoin startup that has been working in the shadows for quite some time, but they were finally able to announce the launch of their blockchain derivatives platform earlier this month. With Hedgy, users can hedge the price volatility risk associated with bitcoin via another party in a P2P manner. The company believes their role as a smart contracts oracle can eventually be valuable A new startup named Hedgy is looking to tackle one of bitcoin’s biggest problems – volatility. While an entire industry including payment processors, wallets and data-driven tools has been The decentralised nature of bitcoin has thrilled its supporters, but it could create legal and taxation issues as it grows in popularity How to hedge bitcoin Hedging bitcoin, or any cryptocurrency, involves strategically opening trades so that a gain or loss in one position is offset by changes to the value of the other position.

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Raoul Pal on Bitcoin as a Global Recession Hedge

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