5 Ways On How To Identify Support And Resistance Levels

How to Identify Support and Resistance Levels in Forex and Bitcoin

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Part III - My 10 Minutes/Day Trading Strategy

Part III - My 10 Minutes/Day Trading Strategy
Part III - My 10 Minutes/Day Trading Strategy
You can find Part II here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h7m1jh/part_ii_10_minuteday_trading_strategy/
Okay I’ve thought about what to include in Part 3 and this is what I’ve landed on:
Some technical nuances and tricks that build on Parts I and II.
I was going to include entry and exit points in Part III but it would be waaaay too long if I did. So that will have to wait for Part 4 or 5. There’s some really good stuff in this post though, I promise. The stuff in this post will lay the foundation for the options you will have in terms of determining your entry and exit points.
Technical Nuances & Tricks:
In this section I want to discuss some techniques that are optional to use. I am going to keep this fairly simple and focus on 2 main topics: fibonacci and horizontal levels of support and resistance.
Horizontal Support and Resistance:

  • There are many ways of identifying support and resistance. I personally subscribe to the K.I.S.S. (Keep It Simple, Stupid!) method when using this strategy.
  • When I identify a strategy setup (Off BB, Stochs overbought/oversold, indecision candle + setup candle) I will simply look to the left and see if there is any prior support or resistance that lines up with the technical strategy. I will also look for prior support or resistance levels to make sure they are not in the way of my target (will cover targets in the next subsection)
  • Support and Resistance are not always clear lines drawn in the sand. Usually they are areas. Areas of prior demand and/or prior oversupply in the market.
  • IF you want a mechanistic manner of identifying support and resistance then here’s an easy indicator: load up the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator and simply look for groupings of fractals near highs and lows of the market
  • KEEP AN EYE ON THE STOCHASTICS IN EACH OF THESE EXAMPLES
Some simple examples below:
https://preview.redd.it/6qm0kauhpz451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=d25a7158314469d168ab6d73a9220adbd7e642e1

https://preview.redd.it/h9540sjkpz451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=2674f1f0d5339529491984ec3a787f8e121b4d26

https://preview.redd.it/lp7n69empz451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9fc1090b73f7396e820e413a76740cbc3f36c8e

Here is the same EURGBP D1 chart with the Fractal Indicator:


https://preview.redd.it/daqfijynpz451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=122f41e16e8b2074ede595e7bcca2dc6292083b9


Fibonacci Application:

  • The way I apply fibonacci in my “normal” trading does require a lot of discretion. And it is this discretionary element that trips up a lot of traders and scares them off using fibonacci.
  • This strategy removes ANY DISCRETION involved in using fibonacci levels. This couldn’t be more in keeping with the entire K.I.S.S. philosophy of this trading strategy
  • We use Fibonacci in this strategy as an OPTIONAL tool. If you decide to use Fibonacci with this strategy, the best way of using it will be to have a mechanistic method for determining entry and exit points.

  • Fibonacci retracement levels can be used for limit entry orders and stop loss orders.
  • Fibonacci extension levels can be used for take profit orders
  • You can copy my fibonacci settings in the screenshot below. I use the following fibonacci % levels:

https://preview.redd.it/p4c2a7ep24651.png?width=2906&format=png&auto=webp&s=71dd141e527d0516e6f019a2c7abf8f9f4daa83c

  • It really is a stupidly simple way we will draw the fibs (note: it will be the SAME WAY on every single trade). We simply draw the fibs over the setup candle. ALWAYS draw the fibs in the direction that price is moving ie: from left to right. So if you have a bullish setup candle you draw your fibs from the LOW to the HIGH of the setup candle. If you have a bearish setup candle you will draw the fibs from the HIGH of the candle to the LOW of the candle. I will cover in a future post which levels we use for entry and exit, although many of you will be able to figure it out quickly. Examples below:
https://preview.redd.it/r1vqhq5tpz451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=39732ceb5390eeef4d560600d7dd0a9a2364ac02

https://preview.redd.it/mbbnlh93qz451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=38c70327a2df4d20fbcd2de0bd8bc5c9cde4ed51
That’s a wrap for Part III.
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Naked Forex Noob

TL;DR Just got into Naked Forex trading but I am stuck on backtesting. Can't correctly identify critical zones (supp and res zones) and I haven't found the criteria for my trading system (wammies and moolahs) on the charts that I have back tested. Any advice?

Hi there, I started learning about forex awhile back from a friend and he began to show me the basics while also directing me to babypips for the free course they put you through. Although I got into all of this awhile back, I have been stuck in the stages of finding my own strategy and backtesting it.
At first, I was very much into using the basic indicators (RSI, MACD, SMA/EMA) but then I came across a recommendation in this sub to read 'Naked Forex' and I was hooked. Not in a sense that now I knew exactly what my strategy was and how to implement it, but hooked in the idea of being able to read a chart and make trades based on price action and reversals.
Of course while reading the book, understanding the concepts, and looking at all the examples of the different trading strategies i'm getting hyped in my mind to get to the backtesting stage to see if I can put this knowledge to somewhat of a test. Now here I am, staring at tradingview's daily and 4h charts from 2006 onward.
Here's where I get stuck.
I understand identifying critical support and resistance zones and it all made sense to me in the book, but as I am backtesting I find that the zones are either always changing or I can't figure out which ones are critical. On top of that, my trading system looks something like this (advice is welcome on how this could be improved or if you see any glaring "wtfs" in it)
I trade wammies & moolahs (market touches supp. or res. zone twice, second touch is lowehigher with a bearish/bullish candlestick printed on the 2nd touch) and use either a kangaroo tail or big shadow for confirmation to initiate the trade.
The buy/sell stop is set 8 pips above/below the bearish/bullish candlestick and the stop loss is placed below/above the first touch.
The profit target is the following zone.
There's a bit more criteria for the trade but that's the blueprint of it. I apologize if it either doesn't make sense or confuses you but even after sifting through months/years of backtesting data my eyes never caught any of this action happening in the zones I've identified.
Any help would be appreciated as I am a sponge and will soak in as much criticism and advice as I can.
submitted by VileKyleTM to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Trading Systems - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Why you need Forex trading systems and strategies. Learning how to trade profitably requires you to learn and master a few Forex trading systems. The key to trading is becoming a master of a few trading strategies not the jack of all. Forex trading systems are important as they will provide you with structure, a set of rules and a plan to follow. This article will discuss some of the different types of Forex trading strategies that are currently in the Forex market and teach you how to identify what makes the best FX trading system.
Indicator Driven Trading Systems. Approach with extreme caution, indicator driven strategies are often designed by someone who notices that this set up is currently working right now. The problem is just that, it's working for that present moment and often very little analysis has been done to understand the longevity of this Forex trading system.
The biggest issue with Indicator based Forex trading systems is that it uses indicators to generate a trading signal as opposed to pure price action. Indicators are lagging and therefore tend to give poorer and late signals than pure price action which is most up to date information on the chart.
However, as this trading system often looks exciting and 'sexy' on the charts many amateur traders find this trading strategy far too tempting.
Some guru's latest flash in the pan trading strategy. A trading system which comes with the guaranteed promise that you will 'never lose again and will turn your computer into an automated cash machine'; unfortunately the world is filled with these so called 'guru's' and their millionaire making Forex trading systems. Experienced traders know that losing trades is part of the game, you will always have losers and winner's you must be prepared to take loses. Professional traders understand no Forex trading strategy is ever guaranteed, however with trading results and back tested performance figures they focus on the overall picture of success. The best way to avoid falling victim to these scams when finding a Forex training company is to have proof of their strategies live trading results. This way you will understand the realistic and honest performance of their strategies.
Trading systems that actually work...
Harmonic trading patterns. Harmonic trading is the art of recognizing particular price patterns in line with Fibonacci extensions and retracements to calculate turning points in the financial markets. Confused yet? Harmonic trading is complex and requires a lot of time and practice to master, yet it could be one of the best trading systems because it offers high reward vs risk ratios and it is very versatile. It can be traded on any market on any timeframe.
If you are just starting off learning how to trade the market your initial focus should not be on harmonic trading patterns as they will take a lot of time and focus to understand. However for more experienced traders looking for a new trading system to add under their belt, harmonic trading is worth a look.
Old school technical analysis trading strategies. This particular trading system is well known and well traded throughout the Forex community for many years. Technical analysis includes; ascending triangles, consolidation breakouts plus head & shoulders patterns, flag patterns to name a few. The benefit in learning these trading systems is that they do work and they have decades of data to prove it.
The downside to these systems is many newer traders find this approach to trading dull and perceive it as old fashioned. It lacks the glamor and excitement of indicator driven system. It's not busy and flashy and unfortunately, newbie traders often mistake complexity as a sign of better performance and higher probability. However the reason old school technical analysis is still around is because it works, and plenty of experienced profitable traders use it in their own trading style. Other than lacking the excitement, old school technical analysis trading systems tends to have a lower success rate, which a lot of people are unwilling or unable to deal with. A lower success rate does mean the winning trades are typically very large, which makes the system profitable and worth learning as it gives you a solid foundation in learning the Forex markets.
Price action trading strategies. Now what you have been waiting for, I reveal the best Forex trading system you can learn is price action. Price action trading is the reading of the raw price action on a chart. The price is the most up to date information on the chart, so it will give you the most current situation when reading the chart. Price action as a Forex trading system is an incredibly simple method that is effective and functional as it works in both trending and ranging markets, with and against the trend. Learning price action can simplify your Forex trading and dramatically improve your results. With price action a trader has the advantage to trade any market on any timeframe, as price action setups are effective in all market conditions.
Price action trading systems to learn:
1. Pin Bar Setup.
The pin bar price action Forex trading strategy is a reversal system. It is designed to trade tops and bottoms of markets and can also be used in trend continuation by buying dips in upward trends, and selling peaks in downtrends.
2. Inside Bar Setup
Inside bars can be used very effectively when trading Forex. They are primarily used when trading strong trending markets as a trend continuation strategy.
3. Engulfing Bar Setup
Engulfing bars are great for trend reversals. They are rare, but a very strong price action reversal signal. Can be used when trading trends, but typically found at end of trend reversals.
4. Fakey Setup
The fakey setup is a trend based trading approach that watches for a false breakout of an inside bar formation. This setup can usually be found at levels of support and resistance, very similar to the pin bar setup. Fakey's are used to buy dips in upward trend, and sell peaks in downtrend.
Price Action Trading Systems... Your First Step. Do not get overwhelmed focus on a few price action trading strategies only. Trade these setups on a few different currency pairs. Grow your confidence. Become comfortable with identifying setups and really understand how to enter the trade step by step. Start with one price action Forex trading system and only when you are completely comfortable add another trading system.
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An Honest Review of T3 Newsbeat Live

T3 Newsbeat Live is run by Mark Melnick, a 20-year veteran trader from New York. According to him, he made his first million at the age of 19 during the dot-com boom back in the late 90s.
He claims that his trading room is the fastest growing trading room at T3 and also the Wall Street’s #1 trading room. You can see this in the description of his videos on Youtube.
He is a big proponent of reaching the highest win rate possible in trading. He openly shares some of his trading strategies in free videos and claims that some of his strategies are batting over 70% or even 80 %.
He also often says that some of the members enjoy a win rate over 90% using his strategies.
I will let you be the judge of this.
Self-Promotion
He makes a lot of videos to attract new people into his trading room. His daily videos are uploaded on Facebook and Youtube almost daily even on Weekends (mostly excluding Friday evening & Saturdays).
In so many videos you’d hear him talking about how his trading room has an edge over other trading rooms while bashing other trading rooms as a whole.
He often talks about how his trading room bought stocks/options at the near bottom or shorted at the near top using his “algorithmic analysis” which can be applied to all markets (stocks, future, forex, crypto).
Piques your curiosity, right?
In fact, that’s how I got to give his trading room a try.
“Who in the hell wouldn’t want to catch the top & bottom in the markets, right?”
So, you would think people in his room and himself are making a killing using his algorithmic analysis?
Not so fast… (in fact, his algorithmic analysis is just drawing trendlines and identifying the most probable support and resistance)
When it works (of course, nothing works 100% of the time), you are able to catch just few cents off the top and bottom when it works if you follow his trade.
However, you have no idea how long you’d have to hold your position. Mark doesn’t know either.
So, he usually goes for nickels and dimes and rarely holds a position longer than 5 minutes.
Even if he’s good at picking bottoms and tops, you’d often risk more than nickels and dimes just to make nickels and dimes. Make sense, right?
…….
…….
…….
Also, because he gets out of his positions fast, he misses out on riding some potentially big trades.
Oh, how I wish stay in that position a bit longer. He doesn’t say but one can surmise that he often leave too much on the table.
Of course, it’s important to take your profit fast when you scalp but you consistently leave too much on the table like he does, one has to wonder if he has any system for taking profits (otherwise, it’s all discretionary guessing).
This type of bottom/top picking is not his main strategy, though.
The strategy that makes him the most amount of money might surprise you. I will get to this later.
How Mark Trades (Mark’s Trading Setups and Strategies)
Mainly, he scans the market in the morning for earnings reports, analysts’ upgrades/downgrades and other catalysts that have potential to make moves in the market.
He openly shares his mockery or insult of analysts, calling certain analysts “idiots” or “imbeciles”.
He puts on his first trade(s) early in the morning (from 9:30AM to 10:00AM Eastern Standard Time) when the market move is the most volatile.
Some of his strategies use market order during this period of volatile time using options. You can see why this can be very risky and especially on thinly traded options with side spread.
He does point out this but sometimes you hear people in the room stuck in an options position that they can’t get out.
Just like his trades from calling the top/bottom of a stock, he gets in and gets out of a position within minutes if not seconds while going for nickels and dimes while staring at 1minute and 5-minutes charts.
That applies to most, if not all of his strategies. (Yes, sometimes he does catch bigger moves than nickels and dimes.)
When you trade during the most volatile time in the morning, you’re subjected to wild moves in both directions. If you’re overly prudent or inexperienced in trading, your stop (unless very wide), has a very high chance of hitting. A lot of times it might stop you out and go in the direction that you predicted.
So, when you’ve been trading during this time, you’d probably don’t set a stoploss order or a hard stop to avoid getting fleeced.
You do have to be proactive at cutting your loss as quickly as possible. Otherwise you’d find yourself scrambling to get out your position while the bid keeps dropping.
I have to say that Mark is very cautious and he does get out of trades very fast if he has doubt.
A lot of times he lets out exhausting, heavy sighs and even murmurs some swear words when things don’t seem to go the way he wants in a trade. Besides calling certain analysts, “imbeciles” and “idiots”, this is quite unprofessional but no one in the room has the gut to point things out like this.
The irony is that he is the “head of trading psychology” at T3 and it doesn’t seem like that he doesn’t have much control over his trading psychology and let alone his emotion.
People in trading chatrooms, like a herd of sheep, as a whole exhibit herd mentality. Even in an online chatroom, you don’t often see someone ruffling feathers and say what they really want to say.
This is probably because of the certain amount of people believing whatever he says without questioning the validity and quality of his comments.
He has several strategies and according to him all of them have win rate over %70.
However, he also comes up with new strategies as often as every month. He either comes up with new strategy or tweaks his existing strategies.
According to him, the reason is that the market is always evolving and you need to constantly adapt yourself to the ever-changing market environment.
What do you think? Does this sound like someone with an edge?
And for someone who scalps for nickels and dimes, he claims to have the highest Sharpe Ratio that he has ever seen in the industry. I’m NOT making this up. He often utters remarks like “My Sharpe Ratio is one of the highest I’ve seen in my twenty-year trading career.”, “I want to create a of traders with a very high Sharpe Ratio.
How can you achieve a high Sharpe Ratio when you scalp all the time?
And let’s not even talk about commissions generated from frequent scalping.
Who cares about commissions when you can be a scalper with high Sharpe Ratio?
Now, I want to talk about something controversial about his most profitable strategy.
Chatters
According to him, he makes the most amount of money using what he calls “Chatters”. He admits he bets on this kind of trades heavily.
His chatter trades are based on the “newsflow” of big funds making a move in certain stocks and piggybacking on the same trade before others catch on.
No one knows how he exactly gets his “newsflow” and he doesn’t give a straight answer when asked.
Maybe he pays a lot for this kind of information or maybe it’s given to him for free. Who knows?
But it makes sense. The name of the room is Newsbeat Live. Without this the name wouldn’t be the same.
This is probably the only real edge that he has and it’s understandable that he doesn’t want to reveal how he get this kind of newsflow and from where.
By joining his trading room he’ll make a callout on these trades for you to take advantage of.
In order to do this kind of trade, you have to be very quick on your trigger finger.
Almost always the initial move is done within a couple of minutes, if not seconds. If you get in late, you find yourself a sucker buying at or near the top.
Also, because you want to get in as soon as you hear his “chatter” announcements, he advised people to get in within 5 seconds of each chatter announcement and use market order to get in. He said that if he had a small account, he’d bet 100% on this kind of “high-octane” chatter trades and get in and get out fast for “easy” money.
This was how chatter trades were done
…Until one they when many people got burned badly.
Back in September or October of 2019, a lot of people in the room lost a lot money because they market ordered call options contracts on a chatter trade.
The spread on that trade was something like BID: 0.5 ASK: 5.00 few seconds after he announced it.
I didn’t take that trade. No way, I’m going to buy something that has a spread like that.
If you’ve been trading options you know that this kind of spread can happen. Many people that day in the room marketed-in on the trade, taking the offer at ASK.
They found themselves buying at $5.0 per contract when someone probably bought the same contract at $0.40 or $0.50 just few seconds ago.
Someone walked away with decent profits on that trade.
This was the biggest trading chatroom fiasco I’ve ever seen.
People in the room grieving and throwing numbers of how much they had just lost. 10K, 20K, 30K and even $60K.
Could it be also that someone who lost more and didn’t want to talk about it because it’d hurt too much? And how embarrassing to talk about such a loss. I give credit to people who spoke up about it.
People were obviously distressed and what did Mr. Mark Melnick do at this moment?
Initially, he didn’t say much. But what he said he was going to walk away from the trading desk to clear his mind.
It took a while for him to come back and he mentioned that it hurt him a lot that people lost a lot of money and encouraged people not to hesitate to contact him.
I don’t think he ever said anything about that he made a mistake insinuating to load up on chatter trades. No apology since everyone who took the trade did it at their own risk. He advised people to reach out to their broker and do whatever it takes to get their trades annulled because the market makers in that trades were despicable crooks and evil.
But let’s get one thing clear. Perhaps the cold hard truth.
Since Mark is the one who announces chatter trades. he basically frontruns everyone who gets in on these trades after him. There were times when he doesn’t take his own chatter trades and lets the room have it.
But when he does, it’s a guarantee win for him.
He has some sycophantic followers in his trading room and these people are always hungry for chatter plays. I can imagine drooling over the idea of next chatter trades.
It’s human to naturally seek the least path of resistance and this type of trade requires no skill but having fast trigger finger and a platform that allows fast execution.
By taking his chatter trades, you are most likely to make money as long as you act fast to get in and get out.
The thing is, you don’t know when it’s exactly the next chatter trade is going to happen.
If you take a bathroom break, you just miss it. If you take a phone call or answer a door bell, you just missed it.
So, it requires you to be glued to your monitor(s) if you want to make the most of your subscription.
So, we went over Mark’s most profitable strategy. But wait we haven’t yet to talk about his overnight swing trades.
Mark’s Swing Trades
His overnight swing trades jokes. Yes, jokes.
A lot of his overnight trades are done just before earnings announcements when implied volatility is at the highest.
You’ve ever bought a call option just before earnings, predicted the right direction but only to find out that you still lost money next morning? This is because of the implied volatility crush post earnings. A lot of people new to options don’t know this and get taken advantage by veterans this way.
I don’t know if Mark knows or not but I witnessed him buying options this way. I think he understand the concept of implied volatility but why he gets on such trades is a mystery.
I haven’t exactly checked the result of all of his swing trades but I wouldn’t be surprised if people lost more money following his swing trades than anything in the room.
Final Word
Mark offers “free-consultation” on the phone for people who struggle in their trading.
He said that he takes a lot of phone calls but often you’d get the feeling that he is distracted, unable to give an undivided attention for his consultation.
“How would you like to get on a free consultation with a millionaire scalper who can take your trading to the next level?” Appealing isn’t it?
But would you want to get on the phone with someone who is going to give a consultation, even if he or she is distracted?
Oh, it’s a free consultation. Ok, why not? What do I got to lose?
In his videos, you’d hear him saying that he cares for everyone in his trading room and considers them as part of his family. And he runs the trading room out of his good heart and intention more than making money.
Besides he says that he makes more money from his trading than running the room.
My suggestion is that you have a look and you’d be the judge.
He does hold “open house” for his trading room from time to time.
Also, I believe that if you try his trading room for the first time, you try it for a month for about $50. As for me, he’s just another front runner using his trading room to profit with a bad sense of humor and exaggeration that make you cringe.
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What is Included in ND10X?

The movement of the chart is tracked every millisecond to follow the model. The ND10X indicator can predict the following graphical change. We are then asked to call and sell. We were surprised by the accuracy of the indicator prediction, but we were also wrong three times: an accuracy of almost 89% that none of the other products showed.
So my review of the ND10X could accurately demonstrate that the ND10X system should be the next hot and unique product in the safe market.
How does this gift help you, Big Profit Trade Catcher?
Big Profit Trade Catcher is more valuable than most systems you pay for. The gift will help you earn the least risk of money. Let's see how the Big Profit Trade Catcher helps you.
ND10X Review Big Profit Trade Catcher captures two powerful indicators to predict trade and market. The two indicators are as follows.
COG: focus indicator.
MACD: convergence or divergence of the moving average.
COG: These are the main indicators to determine the ups and downs of the market. It is a graphical tool that identifies support and resistance levels. Let's see what COG looks like.
Here red shows resistance, green support, and blue movement. We'll discuss how these three rules help with trading later.
MACD: MACD is the best indicator ever. You can use this indicator to determine the market trend and movements. These are also known as mounting flags. Here, indicators are used to find the crossover and divergence. Let's see what MACD looks like.
submitted by aishamudgil to u/aishamudgil [link] [comments]

Feeling good lately. Wanted to share my personal checklist for what I do in leading up to a trade in case there might be someone who finds it helpful.

So, in short about me, Im in my mid 20s, and have been trading for about 5 years. The first 2 I did not take seriously at all, I was in college, working a lot and had a lot happening, long story short, I have given it my all the past 3 years and have done really well to the point Im starting to have close friends/family ask me to teach them or how to get started. Im not here to teach anyone or promote anything so please do not PM me asking for my strategy or for help on any of the things I mention. My only reply would be to use your friends google and youtube to do your own research into each checklist item, if I even responded at all.
Anyways, today id like to just try to give back to this sub a little bit. I see a good bit of negativity on here and have even found myself bickering with users on here which has led me to pay a lot less attention to this sub altogether. One thing I recently noticed is that we are at 80k members in here! I think I subscribed just 2-3 or so years ago and it was around 15k. So that tells me that up to ~80% of this sub probably has less than 3 years experience. So obviously a ton of people are all here debating/arguing/attacking/trolling ideas/topics or users that are likely still in the learning phase so this sub I feel like can often discourage or delay a new persons chances of success because everything about forex is subjective, Technicals, Fundamentals, RM/Psychology, all of it is subjective and when users clash it often ends up toxic and someone that is new may completely give up just because they ran into some asshole on here. I believe what I share could benefit this community and if it happens to do so I may post more breadowns on different topics.
For me personally, I enjoy daytrading. I've tried all types and find daytrading to be the best fit for me. I trade the London/NY crossover, for me that is 5-9:30am central time. Occasionally ill come in an hour early or stay an hour late. I trade 18 pairs, majors, crosses and gold, occasionally silver. No CHF and only few NZD. I know countless people who do just fine with CHF and NZD but from my results over time I do the least well with those. The RSI is mainly the only indicator I use, occasionally an EMA or Bollinger band. Also I have a sessions indicator I sometimes use that I had a friend make for me that outlines a box around my 5-9:30 time and range.
My list of factors in being a successful trader, in order are
  1. Consistently
  2. Psychology
  3. Risk Management
  4. Strategy
*Ill go ahead and state, directed to newbies, that strategy is important but is one of the lesser important factors in the sense of thinking long term, most new traders are out strictly searching for the golden strategy, which doesn't exist or it would be well known, even my best strategy is around 80% which I believe is awesome but without having 1-3 covered, any strategy is useless.
This is my checklist, in order, although some are kind of closely related. I could go on and on about every point but ill try to keep it short and let you use your friends google and youtube to go further into any point you are more interested in understanding better.
Before the trade/before I start trading this takes around 15 minutes for me to have all these in check, so I arrive at my desk around 4:30-4:45am to get all these in check
  1. Psychology- your mental state is the most important factor. You need to be in a clear state of mind and not have anything heavy weighing on you.
  2. News- Go ahead and be aware of upcoming news events, I use forexfactory.com and only takes me a minute or 2 to review the news and get a bias on what might happen or if any currency should be avoided due to high impact news.
  3. Risk Management- Never take a trade risking over 1-2% of your account is kind of known standard for decent risk management. I would mostly agree but I'm personally super conservative and trade 0.25-1% per trade. Also I aim for trades with at least a 1:2 Risk:Reward, never ever less than a 1:1. When trading most days, I already kinda have the pip value and expected risk lot size in my head before im even at my desk, just because its fresh on my mind. I use https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-calculators/position-size to calculate my risks if i'm unsure.
*The more data you can gather about the pairs you trade the more you can use RM to your advantage, For instance, I backtest ALL THE TIME, constantly trying to learn as much as I can about my pairs such as: How many trade setups did each pair produce each week, month year? What pair produced the most setups? What pairs provided the most wins, losses or breakevens? What time during my session did the trade setup form? How many trades went for 20 pips, 40 pips or 100 pips? (for swing traders or scalpers you may want to adjust these numbers) Did news affect my trades? What happened in the Asian session? Early London session?
Knowing this information allows me to organize my attention to the more profitable pairs for my strategy. I'm almost certain very very few people may have the same exact strategy I use but just as a tid bit out of my 18 the best ones for me in 2019, not necessarily in order, were GOLD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUAUD, EUCAD. These 7 have been my favorites and most reliable, so I will do 0.75-1% risk for these. Next preferred, in no particular order, are EUGBP, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, EUNZD, GBP/NZD, GOLD/EURO. For these 7 I use a 0.25-0.75% risk. The last 4 are EUUSD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, EUJPY, which I use a 0.25% on typically. This doesn't mean the pairs suck or anything, again this was based off my strategy, could be completely different for you but I hope you can see how this improves your odds vs just slapping a 2% trade across all pairs. If you do some research you'll find my best ones were also some of the most volatile and had higher ADRs.
  1. Trend. Since I daytrade I don't pay as much attention to H4, D1, W1, M1 although I do establish a bias for these timeframes, and I typically don't check these everyday honestly, because Ill already know in my head where these are. So I check H1, M30, M15 for my daily bias, Trying to establish a good trendline on the H1, preferably a nice channel.
  2. What did Asian/Early London sessions do? My trades typically form bettemore often/more reliable when the Asian session is mostly flat or around a 20-50 pip range, more or less depending on the pair and ADR.
So these are before, this section is about being aware of news and establishing bias'. Also note other than news, your bias' may or may not be correct, this is simply just getting an idea before we jump into ouyour session. It takes me a short while and it worth doing, especially the psychology part, I probably spend half of the time just on number 1, not to watch some motivation video or get super pumped but more so just getting relaxed, putting worries aside if there are any, getting rid of distractions, maybe some light/short meditation. 4:30-5am is definitely a quiet time so its relatively easy to do. I might have a cup of coffee but no more than 1-2 to not get jitters or too much hype in me.
During my session/preparing for a trade. I wont go in to my specific strategy but I believe the checklist can work with many strategies.
  1. Wait for overbought/oversold on RSI, over 75 or below 25. I don't trade in the middle of the range, simple rule we all know buy low, sell high. I set an alert for when the RSI hits either 75 or 25 so I can start to pay attention to it. I simply wait for an RSI alert then bring that pair to my attention. THIS DOES NOT MEAN ENTER AS SOON AS RSI IS TOUCHED, It just tells me I may potentially have a setup form on that pair soon. The alert allows me to trade 18 pairs relatively easily because there's no way I could sit there and constantly be flipping through charts for hour on end. I have been (what I feel like is) more aggressive in the recent years trading this many pairs. I have a reliable strategy that I could easily cut the the latter 4-11 pairs I mentioned out and just get paid off my best 7 which I probably will in the future as i've gotten more involved in other businesses and opportunities. For now and recently it hurts worse than a loss to know there was a clean trade setup that I missed just because I didn't have it up on MT4. A loss I can study and identify why I was wrong or what went wrong, a missed clean pattern just sucks lol
  2. Pattern/Setup. There's a ton of candlestick/pattern formations that happen and people learn an example here where a user posts a lot of charts and examples of all kids of patterns. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4846473.0 So again for new traders, This can be incredibly overwhelming to attempt to learn everything and every pattern. I trade 4 patterns total, 2 when buying , 2 when selling. My advice is find a pattern or 2 and stick to them for a decent amount of time before switching or trying others, I know plenty of traders that stick to 2 patterns, 1 buy, 1 sell and are set. I've studied many but have found my favorite 4. You have to pick a pattern and pay attention to it over time gathering all the info you can to understand if that pattern works well. Every single pattern you can find online has happened on every single pair before, often times over and over and over. Find a pattern/setup, study how much it moves, if news affects the pair, how many times that patterns forms, how it acts around trendlines, etc.
  3. Once I have identified a clean setup I begin to think risk/reward, SL/TP, entries/exits, having clear risk and targets in mind instead of jumping in and hoping it goes well. I pay attention to recent levels, Support/Resistances, Trendline touches and news to get an idea to where to place my SL/TP. I wouldn't recommend just using a flat amount for an example such as a 40 pip SL and a 80 pip TP across all pairs. A value of a pip changes across different pairs (An entire topic that should be learned but the calculator from myfxbook I stated takes care of the pip value for you.
  4. I check other pairs that have the same currencies involved from the pair I received an alert on to see if there are similar setups forming on those. Currencies have positive and negative correlations, meaning some pairs move together and some pairs move opposite. For instance typically EUUSD and GBP/USD move in the same direction and EUUSD and USD/CHF typically move in opposite directions. This is largely due to economic factors. Here's a link that gives a little more insight but this one doesn't list all of the correlations out there. https://www.markettraders.com/blog/understanding-currency-pairs-correlation/. So if I see or get alerted for a potential setup on EUUSD I can check GBP/USD to see if there is a setup there too.
  5. Enter after patten had been confirmed and is clean.
So these 5 are leading up to entering the market. Based on my backtesting, I typically get around 3-4 setups per day. Sometimes theres none, sometimes theres 10. I never ever force a trade on a slow day, I know that my pattern will happen eventually so I never take a setup I think is iffy or that im forcing. Also that is another reason I keep my risk low incase there are days where 10 trades happen that all look good.
So for my session I place my trades around 5-9:30am central time and I usually close them by noon cst when NY session has ended and prices start to go flat. Occasionally I might hold for a day or 2 if I took a good trade in line with the trend and other factors. So after the trades are placed I have just one thing left
  1. Psychology- I said this was the most important, it comes full circle for me and many other. Trading my session and my strategy means my trades could be open for 5 minutes or up to 7 hours. A good trader needs to be able to handle his emotions and trust the process. This means trusting in your setup and let it run while also knowing when to get out in case it show signs of going against you. A traders real job is to manage risk, not to make big trades or a ton of trades. The more selective you are after you've learned a pattern and having everything else in line, the better. There are 5 outcomes of every trade Big win, small win, breakeven, small loss, big loss. To become a successful trader you just need to eliminate the big losses. For me I look at a small win and a small loss basically as breakeven trades. This helps with my psychology because to me it all ends up evening out, just the cost of business. If you take a small loss or small win and let that affect your psychology going to the next trade youre hurting yourself. Sometimes I take a 5-10 pip profit instead of holding and then it going against me for a loss and sometimes I take a 5-10 pip profit and it could've been 100 pips in my favor. Oh well, I protected my account and I know more setups will come tomorrow or later this week.
That is my complete checklist for entering the market. 11 bullets to cover, 5 before you start your session, 5 leading up to entering and 1 during/closing the trade. I hope this will be beneficial to some and may try to post a little more if I see it is helpful. Thank you for still reading this far! Best wishes in your trading endeavors and 2020!
Edit: I forgot to mention for a beginner or any skill level I highly highly recommend getting a simulator. There’s several out there, I don’t want to break any rules by naming which one I use, but they basically all work the same, all close to $100 which if you understand the power of backtesting you realize how necessary it is to have and that cost is nothing. A simulator allows you to download the candlestick tick data for any pair, for as far back as the pair’s chart goes. So then you can pick a day in the past, any day, pick your timeframe, and press play and the chart will start playing out like it actually did on the day it happened. So you see every little tick up and down. You can control the speed and speed it up fast so you can cover a years worth of trading of a currency in just a few hours. This makes it really easy to get a ton of accurate data in a short time. Demo trading is cool but fully controlled simulated trading kicks ass. I can’t recommend it enough.
Edit 2: my apologies for showing my ass in the comments right after I spoke about the negativity in here. I posted this at local time 4 am right after I stayed up finishing my 2019 backtest results and then I noticed the 80k members and felt an inspiration to post something what I thought could be helpful. I spent over an hour on this post and the lack of sleep and 2 straight all-nighters allowed me to allow others to get under my skin after they come at me with some dumb shit. If you see a post from me just know I’ve put some thought into it and am attempting to bring value. Haters gone hate. If I see some are receiving value I’ll keep it up as long as I know it’s something valuable. Again I have nothing to sell or promote even though others assume I do just for posting this. I specifically said stay out of my inbox. Whatever I decide to teach it will be fo free. Thanks again for your time.
submitted by Nectarizedtrader to Forex [link] [comments]

Immediate Aftermath : The more data we collect and analyze, the clearer the picture becomes.

This is the updated first part of the list that has recorded the notable events as the world deals with the COVID-19 pandemic. [2nd Part] ― The LINKS to events and sources are placed throughout the timeline.
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The More Data We Collect and Analyze, the Clearer the Picture Becomes.
Someone threw a stone in a pond a long way away. And we're only just feeling the ripples. — Fukuhara from Giri/Haji, Netflix series
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On Jan 30, Italian PM announced that Italy had blocked all flights to and from China. While Italy has banned people from air-travelling to China, however according to IATA data, there's no measurement implemented for air-travellers from China into Italy till the Mar 07. Especially for Chinese people who have EU passports.
On Jan 31, the US announced the category-I travel restrictions, barring all foreigners who have been in China for the past 14 days, with measures including the refusal of visas and mandatory quarantine.
• "Because the US focused on China and didn't expect the infected people's entry from Europe and the Middle East, the Maginot Line was breached from behind. And so little of credible data at the beginning made the US government to miscalculate its strategic response to the virus." — Dr. Zhang Lun, currently a visiting scholar at Harvard (economics & sociology), during the interview with ICPC on Mar 29.
Also on Jan 31, the WHO changed its tune and declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency of international concern (PHEIC).
Decisions on a PHEIC always involve politics .... West African countries discouraged a declaration in 2014 after they were hit by the largest Ebola virus outbreak on record, mainly because of concern about the economic impact.
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On Feb 02, regarding the US category-I travel restrictions, Kamala Harris, the former Democratic presidential candidate, declared on Twitter:
Since 2017, Trump’s travel bans have never been rooted in national security—they’re about discriminating against people of color. They are, without a doubt, rooted in anti-immigrant, white supremacist ideologies. This travel ban is no different.
On Feb 03, criticizing Trump for his travel restrictions continues. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (华春莹), a Peking University professors James Liang (梁建章), New York Times, the Nation, OBSERVER, the Boston Globe, Yahoo, and Daily Kos were saying,
it's a "panicky" decision and "racist" or it's "cruel and callous," he's stoking fear for political gains, and the president is "inappropriately overreacting." And professors Liang even said the US ban "will hurt goodwill and cooperation [with China] in the future." [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]
Also on Feb 03, Mr. Tedros of the WHO said there's no need for travel ban measure that "unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade" trying to halt the spread of the virus.
China's delegate took the floor ... and denounced measures by "some countries" that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the centre of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights.
Also on Feb 03, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages (in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. — We'd never find out but my guess is that the fund will probably go to Shanghai clique.
On Feb 04, The FDA has given emergency authorization to a new test kit by the CDC that promises to help public health labs meet a potential surge in cases.
The speed ... pushing through a new diagnostic test shows just how seriously they’re taking the potentially pandemic threat of 2019-nCoV. It’s also a sign that the world is starting to learn how to deal with an onslaught of new pathogens.
Also on Feb 04, the Wuhan Institute of Virology and China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS, Chief Chen Wei belongs to) have jointly applied to patent the use of Remdesivir. Scientists from both institutes said in a paper published in Nature’s Cell Research that they found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus.
On Feb 06, Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based research & analysis unit, noted that with State Council of PRC praising his performance of containing the pandemic situation, the council expanded Li Keqiang's political control over Politburo Standing Committee of CCP. (Li Keqiang = Communist Youth League = Shanghai clique)
Also, on Feb 06, as the US evacuation planes leave China, the wave of the US evacuees have arrived who are met by the CDC personnel at the quarantine sites for screening, and those who were suspected of infection will be placed under quarantine for 14 days.
Also, on Feb 06, a CDC-developed lab test kit to detect the new coronavirus began shipping to qualified US laboratories and international ones. — However, on Feb 12, the CDC said some of the testing kits have flaws and do not work properly. The CDC finally ended up shipping the working test kits for mass testings on Feb 27. This was three weeks later than originally planned.
On Feb 07, China National Petroleum has recently declared Force Majeure on gas imports. They are trying to create a breathing room for their foreign exchange reserves shortage. China's foreign exchange reserves fell to mere USD $3.1 trillion in Oct. 2019.
On the same day, Bloomberg reported that PetroChina has directed employees in 20 countries to buy N95 face masks and send them home in China. The goal is to get 2 million masks shipped back. You can also find YouTube videos that show Overseas Chinese are scouring the masks at the Home Depot to ship them to China (the video in Korean). Also Chris Smith is pissed.
On Feb 09, Trump renews his national emergency on its southern border, and Elizabeth Goitein from the Brennan Center for Justice, published an opinion article on New York Times titled "Trump Has Abused This Power. And He Will Again if He’s Not Stopped."
On Feb 10, Dr. Tedros said that an advance three-person team of the WHO arrived in Beijing for a joint mission to discuss with Chinese officials the agenda and questions. Then, the joint mission of about 10 international experts will soon follow, he said. — Those WHO experts ended up visiting Chinese epicentre for the first time on Feb 24.
On Feb 12, the US targets Russian oil company for helping Venezuela skirt sanctions. The US admin seemingly tried to secure leverage against Russia after noticing something suspicious was up.
On the same day, Trump told Reuters "I hope this outbreak or this event (for the US) may be over in something like April." — Dr. Zhong Nanshan (钟南山), China's top tier SARS-hero doctor, also said "the peak of the virus (for China) should come in mid to late February, followed by a plateau or decrease," adding that his forecast was based on on mathematical modelling and data from recent events and government action.
On Feb 13, Tom Frieden who is a former US CDC chief and currently the head of public health nonprofit Resolve to Save Lives, said:
As countries are trying to develop their own control strategies, they are looking for evidence of whether the situation in China is getting worse or better. [But] We still don't have very basic information. [since the WHO just entered China] We hope that information will be coming out.
On the same day, the CDC reports that the 15th case in the US was confirmed. The patient was a part of group who were under a federal quarantine order at the JBSA-Lackland base because of a recent trip to Hubei Province, China.
By Feb 13, China hasn't accepted the US CDC's offer to send top experts, and they haven't released the "disaggregated" data (specific figures broken out from the overall numbers) even though repeatedly been asked.
On Feb 14, CCP's United Front posted an article on its official website, saying (Eng. text by Google Translation):
Fast! There is no time difference to raise urgently needed materials! Some Overseas Chinese have used their professions in the field of medicine in order to purchase relevant materials Hubei province in short of supply (to send them to China). .... Some Overseas Chinese took advantage of the connection resources, opened green transportation channels through our embassies and consulates abroad, and their related enterprises, and quickly sent large quantities of medical supplies (to China), making this love relay link and cooperation seamless.
On Feb 18, Reuters reports that 3M is on the list of firms eligible for China loans to ease coronavirus crisis.
There is no indication from the list that loans offered will necessarily be sought, or that such firms are in any financial need. The Bank of Shanghai told Reuters it will lend 5.5 billion yuan ($786 million) to 57 firms on its list.
On Feb 21, Xi Jinping writes a thank-you letter to Bill Gates for his foundation’s support to China regarding COVID-19 outbreak.
On Feb 24, China was rumoured on Twitter to delay the phase one trade deal implementation indefinitely which includes the increase of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years.
Also on Feb 24, S&P 500 Index started to drop. Opened with 3225.9 and closed 3128.2. By the Mar 23, it dropped to 2208.9.
Also on Feb 24, China's National Health Commission says the WHO experts have visited Wuhan city for the first time, the locked-down central Chinese city at the epicentre, inspecting two hospitals and a makeshift one at a sports centre.
On Feb 26, IF the picture that has been circulated on Twitter were real, then chief Chen Wei and her team have developed the first batch of COVID-19 vaccine within time frame of a month.
On the same day, the CDC's latest figures displays 59 people in the US who have tested positive for COVID-19.
Also on Feb 26, the Washington Post published an article that says:
.... the WHO said it has repeatedly asked Chinese officials for "disaggregated" data — meaning specific figures broken out from the overall numbers — that could shed light on hospital transmission and help assess the level of risk front-line workers face. "We received disaggregated information at intervals, though not details about health care workers," said Tarik Jasarevic of the WHO. — The comment, in an email on Feb 22 to the Post, was one of the first instances that the WHO had directly addressed shortcomings in China's reporting or handling of the coronavirus crisis.
On Feb 27, after missteps, the CDC says its test kit is ready and the US started to expand testing.
On Feb 28, China transferred more than 80,000 Uighurs to factories used by global brands such as Apple, Nike, & Volkswagen & among others.
Also on Feb 28, the WHO published the official report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019. (PDF)
On Feb 29, quoting Caixin media's investigation published on the same day, Lianhe Zaobao, the largest Singapore-based Chinese-language newspaper, published an article reporting the following:
Dr. Li Wenliang said in the interview with Caixin media; [in Dec 2019] another doctor (later turned out to be Dr. Ai Fen) examined and tried to treat a patient who exhibited SARS-like symptoms which akin to influenza resistant to conventional treatment methods. And "the family members who took care of her (the patient) that night also had a fever, and her other daughter also had a fever. This is obviously from person to person" Dr. Li said in the interview."
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On Mar 01, China's State Council super tighten up their already draconian internet law.
On the same day, Princelings published an propaganda called "A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020" which compiles numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership of Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus.
Starting on Mar 03, the US Fed has taken two significant measures to provide monetary stimulus. It's going to be no use as if a group of people with serious means are manipulating the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns when they need it most.
On Mar 04, Xinhua News, China's official state-run press agency posted an article "Be bold: the world should thank China" which states that
If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only, the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic.
On Mar 05, Shanghai Index has recovered the coronavirus loss almost completely.
On Mar 07, Saudi's Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and Muhammad bin Nayef were arrested on the claims of plotting to overthrow King Salman. — Ahmed bin Abdulaziz is known to have very tight investment-interest relationship with Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & BlackRock: One common factor that connects these people is China.
On Mar 08, the Russia–Saudi oil price war has begun. The ostensible reason was simple: China, the biggest importer of oil from Saudi and Russia, was turning back tankers while claiming that the outbreak forced its economy to a standstill.
On Mar 10, the Washington Post published the article saying that the trade group for manufacturers of personal protective equipment urged in 2009 "immediate action" to restock the national stockpile including N95 masks, but it hasn't been replenished since.
On Mar 11, the gentleman at the WHO declares the coronavirus outbreak a "Global Pandemic." He called on governments to change the course of the outbreak by taking "urgent and aggressive action." This was a full twelve days after the organization published the official report regarding the situation in China.
On Mar 13, the US admin declared a National Emergency and announced the plan to release $50 billion in federal resources amid COVID-19.
Also on Mar 13, China's Ministry of Commerce states that China is now the best region for global investment hedging.
On Mar 15, Business Insider reports that Trump tried to poach German scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine and offered cash so it would be exclusive to the US. The problem is the official CureVac (the German company) twitter account, on Mar 16, 2020, tweeted the following:
To make it clear again on coronavirus: CureVac has not received from the US government or related entities an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House on March 2. CureVac rejects all allegations from press.
On Mar 16, the fan club of European globalists has published a piece titled, "China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity." The piece says:
The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda. ... it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world.
On the same day, unlike China that had one epicentre, Wuhan city, the US now overtakes China with most cases reporting multiple epicentres simultaneously.
Also on Mar 16, the US stocks ended sharply lower with the Dow posting its worst point drop in history. But some showed a faint hint of uncertain hope.
On Mar 17, according to an article on Chinese version of Quora, Zhihu, chief Chen Wei and her team with CanSino Biologics officially initiated a Phase-1 clinical trial for COVID-19 vaccine at the Wuhan lab, Hubei China, which Bloomberg News confirmed. — Click HERE, then set its time period as 1 year, and see when the graph has started to move up.
Also on Mar 17, China's state media, China Global TV Network (CGTN), has produced YouTube videos for Middle Eastern audiences to spread the opinion that the US has engineered COVID-19 events.
Also on Mar 17, Al Jazeera reported that the US President has been criticized for repeatedly referring to the coronavirus as the "Chinese Virus" as critics saying Trump is "fueling bigotry."
• China's Xinhua News tweeted "Racism is not the right tool to cover your own incompetence."
• Tucker Carlson asked: "Why would America's media take China's side amid coronavirus pandemic?"
• Also, Mr. Bill Gates: "We should not call this the Chinese virus."
On Mar 19, for the first time, China reports zero local infections.
Also on Mar 19, Al Jazeera published an analysis report, titled "Coronavirus erodes Trump's re-election prospects."
On Mar 22, Bloomberg reports that China's mobile carriers lost 21 million users during this pandemic event. It's said to be the first net decline since starting to report monthly data in 2000.
On Mar 26, EURACTV reports that China cashes in off coronavirus, selling Spain $466 million in supplies. However, Spain returns 9,000 "quick result" test kits to China, because they were deemed substandard. — Especially the sensibility of the test was around 30 percent, when it should be higher than 80 percent.
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On Apr 03, Germany and other governments are bolstering corporate defenses to address worries that coronavirus-weakened companies could be easy prey for bargain hunting by China's state owned businesses.
On Apr 05, New York Times says "Trump Again Promotes Use of Unproven Anti-Malaria Drug (hydroxychloroquine)."
On Apr 06, a Democratic State Rep. Karen Whitsett from Detroit credits hydroxychloroquine and President Trump for "saving her in her battle with the coronavirus."
On Apr 07, the US CDC removed the following part from its website.
Although optimal dosing and duration of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 are unknown, some U.S. clinicians have reported anecdotally different hydroxychloroquine dosing such as: 400mg BID on day one, then daily for 5 days; 400 mg BID on day one, then 200mg BID for 4 days; 600 mg BID on day one, then 400mg daily on days 2-5.
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☞ If there were ever a time for people not to be partisan and tribal, the time has come: We need to be ever vigilant and attentive to all kinds of disinformation & misinformation to see it better as well as to be sharp in our lives. — We really do need to come together.
☞ At first, I was going to draw up a conspiracy theory-oriented list focused on Team-Z, especially Mr. Gates. However, although it's nothing new tbh, recently many chats and discussions seem overflowing with disinformation & misinformation which is, in my opinion, particularly painful at a time like this. Hence, this post became a vanilla list that's just recorded the notable events. — We all are subject to misinformation, miscalculation, and misjudgment. But the clearer the picture becomes the better we can identify Funkspiel.
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Immediate Aftermath pt.2.a
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Feasible Timeline of the Operation
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☞ Go Back to the Short Story.
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submitted by vanillabluesea to conspiracy [link] [comments]

So close giving up

So I’ve been “interested” in the markets (starting with crypto, moving on to stocks and now forex) for well over 2 years now.
During that time I studied A LOT - chart patterns, candle stick patterns, various indicators, support and resistance, supply and demand zones, trendlines, fibs, divergences, basically anything I got my hands on.
I really enjoy studying and learning new things so I was quite interested in everything trading and TA orientated and it all came quite easily.
For about a year now I have been trying to trade forex. Spent some time on a demo (quite successfully), but then moving on to live account and all of a sudden as if things stopped working. Been trying to trade chart patterns and trendlines mainly, with not much success.
Then discovered supply demand, something which resonated with me very well. Again, spent couple months studying that. Start trading it, lots of losing trades, few OK ones, couple huge ones (6 and 10R), basically offset all the losers from the past.
And now dry spell again. Trying to stick with supply demand, but I keep noticing that there are more fakeouts (or so it seems) and nothing seems to be working again.
Went back to backtest various strategies, trying to keep it super simple. Working on blending price action (chart patterns) and trendlines with supply demand trading strategy, but no luck. Even attempted divergences, all losers backtesting.
It is now really demotivating. It appears as if the market is totally random and moves very unpredictably. Not sure if I just cannot see certain things, but nothing works for me. Just finished backtesting and am more confused than ever, don’g even know what I’m doing anymore.
Last year I started with $2k in my account and finished with $2,080 - 4% annual gain... well at least I didn’t blow the account (I am super strict on risk management and thats the only thing i feel like i have figured out).
Any advice? Really no idea what to do from here. Trying to keep it simple and focus on price action but it just doesnt make sense to me. I feel like I keep looking for a strategy or setup that works for me, but having really hard time identifying one. And the more I learn the more confused I get and the more contradicting signals I find on a chart.
Help. Any suggestions, ideas, recommendations?
submitted by bo4rflyah to Forex [link] [comments]

My First Year of Trading

So here it is, three more days and October begins, which marks one year of trading for me. I figured I would contribute to the forum and share some of my experience, a little about me, and what I've learned so far. Whoever wants to listen, that's great. This might get long so buckle up..
Three years ago, I was visiting Toronto. I don't get out much, but my roommate at the time travels there occasionally. He asked everyone at our place if we wanted to come along for a weekend. My roommate has an uncle that lives there and we didn't have to worry about a hotel because his uncle owns a small house that's unlived in which we could stay at. I was the only one to go with. Anyways, we walk around the city, seeing the sights and whatnot.
My friend says to me "where next?"
"I don't know, you're the tour guide"
"We can go check out Bay Street"
"what's 'Bay Street?'"
"It's like the Canadian Wall street! If you haven't seen it you gotta see it!"
Walking along Bay, I admire all the nice buildings and architecture, everything seems larger than life to me. I love things like that. The huge granite facades with intricate designs and towering pillars to make you think, How the fuck did they make that? My attention pivots to a man walking on the sidewalk opposite us. His gait stood out among everyone, he walked with such a purpose.. He laughed into the cell phone to his ear. In the elbow-shoving city environment, he moved with a stride that exuded a power which not only commanded respect, but assumed it. I bet HE can get a text back, hell he's probably got girls waiting on him. This dude was dressed to kill, a navy suit that you could just tell from across the street was way out of my budget, it was a nice fucking suit. I want that. His life, across the street, seemed a world a way from my own. I've worn a suit maybe twice in my life. For my first communion, it was too big for me, I was eleven or whatever so who gives a shit, right? I'm positive I looked ridiculous. The other time? I can't remember.
I want that. I want the suit. I want the wealth, the independence. I want the respect and power, and I don't give a shit what anyone thinks about it.
Cue self doubt.
Well, He's probably some rich banker's son. That's a world you're born into. I don't know shit about it. \sigh* keep walking..*

A year later, I'm visiting my parents at their house, they live an hour away from my place. My dad is back from Tennessee, his engineering job was laying people off and he got canned... Or he saw the end was near and just left... I don't know, hard to pay attention to the guy honestly because he kind of just drones on and on. ("Wait, so your mom lives in Michigan, but your dad moved to Tennessee... for a job?" Yea man, I don't fucking know, not going to touch on that one.) The whole project was a shit show that was doomed to never get done, the way he tells it. And he's obviously jaded from multiple similar experiences at other life-sucking engineer jobs. My mom is a retired nurse practitioner who no longer works because of her illness. I ask him what he's doing for work now and he tells me he trades stocks from home. I didn't even know you could do that. I didn't know "trading" was a thing. I thought you just invest and hope for the best.
"Oh that's cool, how much money do you need to do that?"
"Ehh, most say you need at least $25,000 as a minimum"
"Oh... guess I can't do that..."
Six months later, I get a call and it's my dad. We talk a little about whatever. Off topic, he starts asking if I'm happy doing what I'm doing (I was a painter, commercial and residential) I tell him yes but it's kind of a pain in the ass and I don't see it as a long term thing. Then he gets around to asking if I'd like to come work with him. He basically pitches it to me. I'm not one to be sold on something, I'm always skeptical. So I ask all the questions that any rational person would ask and he just swats them away with reassuring phrases. He was real confident about it. But basically he says for this to work, I have to quit my job and move back home so he can teach me how to trade and be by my side so I don't do anything stupid. "My Name , you can make so much money." I say that I can't raise the $25,000 because I'm not far above just living paycheck to paycheck. "I can help you out with that." Wow, okay, well... let me think about it.
My "maybe" very soon turned into a "definitely." So over the next six months, I continue to work my day job painting, and I try to save up what I could for the transition (it wasn't a whole lot, I sucked at saving. I was great at spending though!). My dad gives me a book on day trading (which I will mention later) and I teach myself what I can about the stock market using Investopedia. Also in the meantime, my dad sends me encouraging emails. He tells me to think of an annual income I would like to make as a trader, and used "more than $100,000 but less than a million" as a guideline. He tells me about stocks that he traded that day or just ones that moved and describes the basic price action and the prices to buy and sell at. Basically saying "if you bought X amount of shares here and sold it at X price here, you could make a quick 500 bucks!" I then use a trading sim to trade those symbols and try to emulate what he says. Piece of cake. ;)
Wow, that's way more than what I make in a day.
He tells me not to tell anyone about my trading because most people just think it's gambling. "Don't tell your Mom either." He says most people who try this fail because they don't know how to stop out and take a loss. He talks about how every day he was in a popular chatroom, some noob would say something like, "Hey guys, I bought at X price (high of day or thereabout), my account is down 80% .. uhh I'm waiting for it to come back to my entry price.. what do I do??"
Well shit, I'm not that fucking dumb. If that's all it takes to make it is to buy low, sell high, and always respect a stop then I'll be fantastic.
By the end of September, I was very determined. I had been looking forward everyday to quitting my painting job because while it used to be something I loved, it was just sucking the life out of me at this point. Especially working commercial, you just get worked like a dog. I wasn't living up to my potential with that job and I felt awful for it every minute of every day. I knew that I needed a job where I could use my brain instead of slaving my body to fulfill someone else's dream. "Someone's gotta put gas in the boss's boat" That's a line my buddy once said that he probably doesn't know sticks with me to this day.
It ain't me.
So now it was October 2018, and I'm back living with Mom n' Pops. I was so determined that on my last day of work I gave away all of my painting tools to my buddy like, "here, I don't need this shit." Moving out of my rental was easy because I don't own much, 'can't take it with ya.' Excited for the future I now spend my days bundled up in winter wear in the cold air of our hoarder-like basement with a space heater at my feet. My laptop connected to a TV monitor, I'm looking at stocks next to my dad and his screens in his cluttered corner. Our Trading Dungeon. I don't trade any money, (I wasn't aware of any real-time sim programs) I just watch and learn from my dad. Now you've got to keep in mind, and look at a chart of the S&P, this is right at the beginning of Oct '18, I came in right at the market top. Right at the start of the shit-show. For the next three or four weeks, I watch my dad pretty much scratch on every trade, taking small loss after small loss, and cursing under his breath at the screen.
Click.
"dammit."
Click.
"shit."
Click. Click.
"you fuck."
Click.
This gets really fucking annoying as time goes on, for weeks, and I get this attitude like ugh, just let me do it. I'll make us some fucking money. So I convince him to let me start trading live. I didn't know anything about brokers so I set up an account using his broker, which was Fidelity. It was a pain and I had to jump through a lot of hoops to be able to day trade with this broker. I actually had to make a joint account with my dad as I couldn't get approved for margin because my credit score is shit (never owned a credit card) and my net worth, not much. Anyways, they straight up discourage day trading and I get all kinds of warning messages with big red letters that made me shit myself like oooaaahhh what the fuck did I do now. Did I forget to close a position?? Did I fat finger an order? Am I now in debt for thousands of dollars to Fidelity?? They're going to come after me like they came after Madoff. Even after you are approved for PDT you still get these warning messages in your account. Some would say if I didn't comply with "whatever rule" they'd even suspend my account for 60 days. It was ridiculous, hard to describe because it doesn't make sense, and it took the support guy on the phone a good 20 minutes to explain it to me. Basically I got the answer "yea it's all good, you did nothing wrong. As long as you have the cash in your account to cover whatever the trade balance was" So I just kept getting these warnings that I had to ignore everyday. I hate Fidelity.
My fist day trading, I made a few so-so trades and then I got impatient. I saw YECO breaking out and I chased, soon realized I chased, so I got out. -$500. Shit, I have to make that back, I don't want my dad to see this. Got back in. Shit. -$400. So my first day trading, I lost $900. My dumbass was using market orders so that sure didn't help. I reeled the risk back and traded more proper position size for a while, but the commissions for a round trip are $10, so taking six trades per day, I'm losing $60 at a minimum on top of my losing trades. Quickly I realized I didn't know what the hell I was doing. What about my dad? Does HE know? One day, in the trading dungeon, I was frustrated with the experience I'd been having and just feeling lost overall. I asked him.
"So, are you consistently profitable?"
"mmm... I do alright."
"Yea but like, are you consistently profitable over time?"
.........................
"I do alright."
Silence.
"Do you know any consistently profitable traders?"
"Well the one who wrote that book I gave you, Tina Turner.. umm and there's Ross Cameron"
......................
"So you don't know any consistently profitable traders, personally.. People who are not trying to sell you something?"
"no."
...................
Holy fucking shit, what did this idiot get me into. He can't even say it to my face and admit it.
This entire life decision, quitting my job, leaving my rental, moving from my city to back home, giving shit away, it all relied on that. I was supposed to be an apprentice to a consistently profitable day trader who trades for a living. It was so assumed, that I never even thought to ask! Why would you tell your son to quit his job for something that you yourself cannot do? Is this all a scam? Did my dad get sold a DREAM? Did I buy into some kind of ponzi scheme? How many of those winning trades he showed me did he actually take? Are there ANY consistently profitable DAY TRADERS who TRADE FOR A LIVING? Why do 90% fail? Is it because the other 10% are scamming the rest in some way? Completely lost, I just had no clue what was what. If I was going to succeed at this, if it was even possible to succeed at this, it was entirely up to me. I had to figure it out. I still remember the feeling like an overwhelming, crushing weight on me as it all sunk in. This is going to be a big deal.. I'm not the type to give up though. In that moment, I said to myself,
I'm going to fucking win at this. I don't know if this is possible, but I'm going to find out. I cannot say with certainty that I will succeed, but no matter what, I will not give up. I'm going to give all of myself to this. I will find the truth.
It was a deep moment for me. I don't like getting on my soapbox, but when I said those things, I meant it. I really, really meant it. I still do, and I still will.
Now it might seem like I'm being hard on my dad. He has done a lot for me and I am very grateful for that. We're sarcastic as hell to each other, I love the bastard. Hell, I wouldn't have the opportunity to trade at all if not for him. But maybe you can also understand how overwhelmed I felt at that time. Not on purpose, of course he means well. But I am not a trusting person at all and I was willing to put trust into him after all the convincing and was very disappointed when I witnessed the reality of the situation. I would have structured this transition to trading differently, you don't just quit your job and start trading. Nobody was there to tell me that! I was told quite the opposite. I'm glad it happened anyway, so fuck it. I heard Kevin O'Leary once say,
"If I knew in the beginning how difficult starting a business was, I don't know that I ever would've started."
This applies very much to my experience.
So what did I do? Well like everyone I read and read and Googled and Youtube'd my ass off. I sure as hell didn't pay for a course because I didn't have the money and I'm like 99% sure I would be disappointed by whatever they were teaching as pretty much everything can be found online or in books for cheap or free. Also I discovered Thinkorswim and I used that to sim trade in real-time for three months. This is way the hell different than going on a sim at 5x speed and just clicking a few buy and sell buttons. Lol, useless. When you sim trade in real-time you're forced to have a routine, and you're forced to experience missing trades with no chance to rewind or skip the boring parts. That's a step up because you're "in it". I also traded real money too, made some, lost more than I made. went back to sim. Traded live again, made some but lost more, fell back to PDT. Dad fronted me more cash. This has happened a few times. He's dug me out of some holes because he believes in me. I'm fortunate.
Oh yeah, about that book my dad gave me. It's called A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online by Toni Turner. This book... is shit. This was supposed to be my framework for how to trade and I swear it's like literally nothing in this book fucking works lol. I could tell this pretty early on, intuitively, just by looking at charts. It's basically a buy-the-breakout type strategy, if you want to call it a strategy. No real methodology to anything just vague crap and showing you cherry-picked charts with entries that are way too late. With experience in the markets you will eventually come to find that MOST BREAKOUTS FAIL. It talks about support/resistance lines and describes them as, "picture throwing a ball down at the floor, it bounces up and then it bounces down off the ceiling, then back up." So many asinine assumptions. These ideas are a text book way of how to trade like dumb money. Don't get me wrong, these trades can work but you need to be able to identify the setups which are more probable and identify reasons not to take others. So I basically had to un-learn all that shit.
Present day, I have a routine in place. I'm out of the dungeon and trade by myself in my room. I trade with a discount broker that is catered to day traders and doesn't rape me on commissions. My mornings have a framework for analyzing the news and economic events of the particular day, I journal so that I can recognize what I'm doing right and where I need to improve. I record my screens for later review to improve my tape reading skills. I am actually tracking my trades now and doing backtesting in equities as well as forex. I'm not a fast reader but I do read a lot, as much as I can. So far I have read about 17-18 books on trading and psychology. I've definitely got a lot more skilled at trading.
As of yet I am not net profitable. Writing that sounds like selling myself short though, honestly. Because a lot of my trades are very good and are executed well. I have talent. However, lesser quality trades and trades which are inappropriately sized/ attempted too many times bring down that P/L. I'm not the type of trader to ignore a stop, I'm more the trader that just widdles their account down with small losses. I trade live because at this point, sim has lost its value, live trading is the ultimate teacher. So I do trade live but I just don't go big like I did before, I keep it small.
I could show you trades that I did great on and make people think I'm killing it but I really just don't need the validation. I don't care, I'm real about it. I just want to get better. I don't need people to think I'm a genius, I'm just trying to make some money.
Psychologically, to be honest with you, I currently feel beaten down and exhausted. I put a lot of energy into this, and sometimes I work myself physically sick, it's happened multiple times. About once a week, usually Saturday, I get a headache that lasts all day. My body's stress rebound mechanism you might call it. Getting over one of those sick periods now, which is why I barely even traded this week. I know I missed a lot of volatility this week and some A+ setups but I really just don't give a shit lol. I just currently don't have the mental capital, I think anyone who's been day trading every day for a year or more can understand what I mean by that. I'm still being productive though. Again, I'm not here to present an image of some badass trader, just keeping it real. To give something 100% day after day while receiving so much resistance, it takes a toll on you. So a break is necessary to avoid making bad trading decisions. That being said, I'm progressing more and more and eliminating those lesser quality trades and identifying my bad habits. I take steps to control those habits and strengthen my good habits such as having a solid routine, doing review and market research, taking profits at the right times, etc.
So maybe I can give some advice to some that are new to day trading, those who are feeling lost, or just in general thinking "...What the fuck..." I thought that every night for the first 6 months lol.
First of all, manage expectations. If you read my story of how I came to be a trader, you can see I had a false impression of trading in many aspects. Give yourself a realistic time horizon to how progress should be made. Do not set a monetary goal for yourself, or any time-based goal that is measured in your P/L. If you tell yourself, "I want to make X per day, X per week, or X per year" you're setting yourself up to feel like shit every single day when it's clear as the blue sky that you won't reach that goal anytime soon. As a matter of fact, it will appear you are moving further AWAY from that goal if you just focus on your P/L, which brings me to my next point.
You will lose money. In the beginning, most likely, you will lose money. I did it, you'll do it, the greatest Paul Tudor Jones did it. Trading is a skill that needs to be developed, and it is a process. Just look at it as paying your tuition to the market. Sim is fine but don't assume you have acquired this skill until you are adept at trading real money. So when you do make that leap, just trade small.
Just survive. Trade small. get the experience. Protect your capital. To reach break even on your bottom line is a huge accomplishment. In many ways, experience and screen time are the secret sauce.
Have a routine. This is very important. I actually will probably make a more in-depth post in the future about this if people want it. When I first started, I was overwhelmed with the feeling "What the fuck am I supposed to DO?" I felt lost. There's no boss to tell you how to be productive or how to find the right stocks, which is mostly a blessing, but a curse for new traders.
All that shit you see, don't believe all that bullshit. You know what I'm talking about. The bragposting, the clickbait Youtube videos, the ads preying on you. "I made X amount of money in a day and I'm fucking 19 lolz look at my Lamborghini" It's all a gimmick to sell you the dream. It's designed to poke right at your insecurities, that's marketing at it's finest. As for the bragposting on forums honestly, who cares. And I'm not pointing fingers on this forum, just any trading forum in general. They are never adding anything of value to the community in their posts. They never say this is how I did it. No, they just want you to think they're a genius. I can show you my $900 day trading the shit out of TSLA, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Gamblers never show you when they lose, you might never hear from those guys again because behind the scenes, they over-leveraged themselves and blew up. Some may actually be consistently profitable and the trades are 100% legit. That's fantastic. But again, I don't care, and you shouldn't either. You shouldn't compare yourself to others.
"Everyone's a genius in a bull market" Here's the thing.. Markets change. Edges disappear. Trading strategies were made by traders who traded during times when everything they did worked. Buy all the breakouts? Sure! It's the fucking tech bubble! Everything works! I'm sure all those typical setups used to work fantastically at some point in time. But the more people realize them, the less effective they are. SOMEONE has to be losing money on the opposite side of a winning trade, and who's willing to do that when the trade is so obvious? That being said, some things are obvious AND still work. Technical analysis works... sometimes. The caveat to that is, filters. You need to, in some way, filter out certain setups from others. For example, you could say, "I won't take a wedge pattern setup on an intraday chart unless it is in a higher time frame uptrend, without nearby resistance, and trading above average volume with news on that day."
Have a plan. If you can't describe your plan, you don't have one. Think in probabilities. You should think entirely in "if, then" scenarios. If X has happens, then Y will probably happen. "If BABA breaks this premarket support level on the open I will look for a pop up to short into."
Backtest. Most traders lose mainly because they think they have an edge but they don't. You read these books and all this stuff online telling you "this is a high probability setup" but do you know that for a fact? There's different ways to backtest, but I think the best way for a beginner is manual backtesting with a chart and an excel sheet. This builds up that screen time and pattern recognition faster. This video shows how to do that. Once I saw someone do it, it didn't seem so boring and awful as I thought it was.
Intelligence is not enough. You're smarter than most people, that's great, but that alone is not enough to make you money in trading necessarily. Brilliant people try and fail at this all the time, lawyers, doctors, surgeons, engineers.. Why do they fail if they're so smart? It's all a fucking scam. No, a number of reasons, but the biggest is discipline and emotional intelligence.
Journal every day. K no thanks, bro. That's fucking gay. That's how I felt when I heard this advice but really that is pride and laziness talking. This is the process you need to do to learn what works for you and what doesn't. Review the trades you took, what your plan was, what actually happened, how you executed. Identify what you did well and what you can work on. This is how you develop discipline and emotional intelligence, by monitoring yourself. How you feel physically and mentally, and how these states affect your decision-making.
Always be learning. Read as much as you can. Good quality books. Here's the best I've read so far;
Market Wizards -Jack Schwager
One Good Trade -Mike Bellafiore
The Daily Trading Coach -Bret Steenbarger
Psycho-cybernetics -Maxwell Maltz
Why You Win or Lose -Fred Kelly
The Art and Science of Technical Analysis -Adam Grimes
Dark Pools -Scott Patterson
Be nimble. Everyday I do my research on the symbols I'm trading and the fundamental news that's driving them. I might be trading a large cap that's gapping up with a beat on EPS and revenue and positive guidance. But if I see that stock pop up and fail miserably on the open amidst huge selling pressure, and I look and see the broader market tanking, guess what, I'm getting short, and that's just day trading. The movement of the market, on an intraday timeframe, doesn't have to make logical sense.
Adapt. In March I used to be able to buy a breakout on a symbol and swing it for the majority of the day. In the summer I was basically scalping on the open and being done for the day. Volatility changes, and so do my profit targets.
Be accountable. Be humble. Be honest. I take 100% responsibility for every dime I've lost or made in the market. It's not the market makers fault, it wasn't the HFTs, I pressed the button. I know my bad habits and I know my good habits.. my strengths/ my weaknesses.
Protect yourself from toxicity. Stay away from traders and people on forums who just have that negative mindset. That "can't be done" mentality. Day trading is a scam!! It can certainly be done. Prove it, you bastard. I'm posting to this particular forum because I don't see much of that here and apparently the mods to a good job of not tolerating it. As the mod wrote in the rules, they're most likely raging from a loss. Also, the Stocktwits mentality of "AAPL is going to TANK on the open! $180, here we come. $$$" , or the grandiose stories, "I just knew AMZN was going to go up on earnings. I could feel it. I went ALL IN. Options money, baby! ka-ching!$" Lol, that is so toxic to a new trader. Get away from that. How will you be able to remain nimble when this is your thought process?
Be good to yourself. Stop beating yourself up. You're an entrepreneur. You're boldly going where no man has gone before. You've got balls.
Acknowledge your mistakes, don't identify with them. You are not your mistakes and you are not your bad habits. These are only things that you do, and you can take action necessary to do them less.
It doesn't matter what people think. Maybe they think you're a fool, a gambler. You don't need their approval. You don't need to talk to your co-workers and friends about it to satisfy some subconscious plea for guidance; is this a good idea?
You don't need anyone's permission to become the person you want to be.
They don't believe in you? Fuck 'em. I believe in you.
submitted by indridcold91 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

How to take first step in Forex trading

In Forex Trading, the most important thing is the Judgment on whether the currency will rise or fall. When the value of our target currency goes up, then we will make a profit from long positions. When the value of the currency we trade falls, then we can make a profit from short positions.
How to judge the value of a currency rises or falls in a period of time?
Here are three reference factors:
First, The value of currencies raises in those countries that with higher interest rates. Investors in high interest countries get better returns than those in low interest countries. As a result, high interest rates attract foreign capital, leading to an increase in the exchange rate. That's one reason foreign exchange traders may be trading at rates announced by central banks such as the Fed or the Bank of England.
Second, The Currency Issuance directly determines the value of the country's currency. Currencies in low inflation countries tend to appreciate because their Currency Issuance in a healthy level and have a higher purchasing power than other currencies. High inflation countries have mass Currency Issuance, so the value of their currency depreciates. The Fed issued unlimited QE recently to cope with the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the economy. The USD is Facing depreciation.
Finally, the Investment Environment of the currency country has an impact on the currency value. Financial crisis, earthquake, tsunami, war and conflict bring pressure to a country's economy, worsen the investment environment, and also have a negative impact on the value of a currency.
The above factors are very important for trend traders, but for day traders, only one minute price chart is needed. In this article, we introduce one of the trading methods.
One minute chart trading method for day trading - Support & Resistance
1. Identify Support & Resistance
The line connects with the two price reversal points called support line or resistance line. When the reversal turns to the downtrend becomes the resistance line. When the reversal turns to the uptrend becomes the support line,
as shown in the figure:

https://preview.redd.it/n1rlps8aqlr41.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e54ce8379831b77779496b27c66a5ac7342a1078
2. Make Positions and Set Stop Loss
Make short positions near the Resistance, and set stop loss above it. Then close out positions before the price reaches the support level.

https://preview.redd.it/aq7zmegbqlr41.jpg?width=670&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=295ce964f72dbc3af0ad35c5cdf424596b2f796b
Make long positions near the Support, and set stop loss below it. Then close out positions before the price reaches the resistance level.

https://preview.redd.it/c0o59v7cqlr41.jpg?width=670&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=679331c43f8ad12ba0849139ebe6fa6e14e92ab6
In terms of price action analysis, your profit target should not be above strong resistance or strong below support.
This is a very simplified method, Support & Resistance can be found in all sorts of market environments.
And this method is very effective, even if the direction of our position is wrong, we can just stop loss and close out. The loss is in our control.
One minute price chart with Support & Resistance, trading easily and controllable. It is the first choice of foreign exchange trading strategy and entry-level trading method for novices.
Without long-term focus on the price trend and large amount of data and news, trading become a much easier thing for us!
submitted by top1markets to forex_trades [link] [comments]

Noob trying to trade: An honest reflection on my performance after three weeks

So after three weeks trying to trade, I haven't blown my account yet.
On Feb 24 I started trading Forex with an account funded with €30. I know, I do not belong to those who put 10,000 into a forex account, as a noob, but to mee the learning curve and the ride feels the same.
On day one, I lost €4.17, the next days I made profits, so the P/L balance was + €0.8. Ok, I did not blow my account the first days. But then and unfortunately, I began trading just days before the EUUSD was on a jump from 1.09 to ~1.15. I sold EUUSD at 1.09042. With a lot more experience I could have avoided this trade. Even worse I did not realize a loss quickly, but carried the losses to this day.
Reddit experts said I should realize my loss, but I didn't want to. My account needed some more funding, so I added additionally €10, to avoid the liquidation of my position.
My available trading resources went into the red, mayking it impossible to trade. I am trading 1,000 units (EURUSD) with a 33.3% leverage. the margin reguirement is about the same at ~€33.30. I was basically locked out from trading since Feb 28.
Days later, when the uptrend was slowing down, I added another €40 (now total €120), enough to open a second position. The rationale was, I do not want to wait until, and if any maybe my losses disappear, but instead I believed that after such a strong week for the € there has to be some consolidation. I wanted to sell euros again, to work towards a quicker break even.
On March 9, after a week of being incapable to trade because of insufficient funds, I opened a new sell position. just to lose another €2.40 that day. Still, to me the charts looked like the euro would go down.
Fortunately, I did not realize my loss, when reddit experts suggested to do so at the hight of my loss (€-52.18). The last week was great. I made profit every day trading the 1 minute chart. Still I use a number of indicators, support and resistances, ranges and trends. So this week i realised a loss of €-2.40 and made profits of €13.79. Trading only a micro lot in with margin of €33.30, that's a 41,41% profit since Tuesday. So actually I am happy about that.
After three weeks, I did not blow my account. My unrealised loss is, as of now, down from max €-52.18 to €-18.49, (which is my poor man's profit) and I was able to have more profitable trades than losing trades.
I only traded Sell positions with the trend. Although my available trading resources would have allowed 2,000 units to trade since Wednesday, (+ the 1,000 units from Feb 28), I did not feel comfortable to trade the other direction, once I "figured out" how to trade "my pattern".
Date Avail. TR Total Margin Net Equity P/L (unreal.) Cash Realised Financing Funding
before €70 - €26.96 €33.~~ €70 to €59 €0.5 to€-21.17 €70 - €81.27 €-4.17 - €0.8
05.03.20 €17.95 €33,16 €51.11 €-30.27 €81.38 €0.11
06.03.20 €13.96 €33,08 €47.04 €-34.38 €81.42 €0.04
07.03.20 €1396 €33.08 €47.04 €-34.38 €81.42 saturday
08.03.20 €1396 €33.08 €47.04 €-34.38 €81.42 sunday
09.03.20 €-0.05 €66.92 €66.87 €-52.18 €119.05 €-2.40 €0.03 €40.00
10.03.20 €59.75 €32.65 €92.40 €-33.13 €125.53 €6.40 €0.08
11.03.20 €65.43 €33.08 €98.51 €-32.75 €131.26 €5.69 €0.04
12.03.20 €80.34 €33.30 €114.07 €-18.49 €132.56 € 1.70 ~€0.04
Now, when I look at my performance it looks great. However, I want to be honest with myself. At a second look, my trading day performance it's not that great anymore.
If I look at the first trade that turned from an unrealized loss of €-3.47 (from opening to day close) to a profit of €4.00.
Open Date Open Order Market Close P/L Close Order Close Date
09 Mar 15:53 [email protected] 1.14544 €4.00 [email protected] 10 Mar 2020 09:11
The EURUSD was at 1.14544. It's at the time of writing this post ~1.11117. ~304 pips since I traded on March 9. If I had just kept open that one position, I would have made ~€27 (€0.09 / pip). Trading daily, losing my mind and risking my money I made only €13.79.
Say, I feel more comfortable and trade the other direction, whatever that direction might be. I could have made maybe twice as much, which is still below what I could have made if I only kept the first postion in that series open and waited three days.
The conclusion after a week of somehow successful trading to me as a noob is that if i could identify atrend reversal that would last a few days, it really isn't worth trading for hours a day. you can have the same with less risk and less stress.
it may look very different in a range scenario. in a ranging week, i would have outperformed the euusd pair easily.
my net equity is only ~2% in the red (€117 from €120, was €47 from €80 at worst point). which is so much better than a few days ago and if i had realised the loss. what i learned this week is of great valuable too. so i am happy with the result, but i also have to say it was a bit of a useless endavour moneywise compared to the simple performance of the currency pair.
conclusion: mixed feelings about my performance as a forex noob.
submitted by forex_noob to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Swing trading the dailies

Hey everyone! New to the subreddit, I've been lurking for a couple of weeks and picking up some good stuff, so thank you all for your contributions.
A little background on me. I've been trading on and off for over 20 years. Made and lost several hundred thousand dollars while trading futures and equity options. I've never really gotten into forex before other than to do a little research and testing. I personally don't like to take pure directional bets so with futures I traded spreads and with options I was a premium seller.
But I'm giving it a try now and my first month (January) I'm up 6% on my demo account. So I thought I'd start a fresh account for February and share how things go. I've set up a myfxbook too if you're interested. If things go well I'll probably go live in March or April with a small account.
As indicated in the title I'm swing trading the daily charts, mostly holding trades for a few days although backtesting there are multi-week trends that I may have caught too, although I put much stock in backtesting.
For trade entries I keep things very simple with just Support/Resistance and using Heikin Ashi to identify strength or weakness. I'll then check IG and Oanda open positions to confirm I'm taking a position opposite most retail traders.
For TP I'm experimenting with multiples of ATR to take up to 2/3's off and allowing the remainder to ride with a trailing stop.
For initial SL I've been using the high/low of the previous bar but I'm also experimenting with ATR there too since I've noticed that my trades tend to either go quickly right or quickly wrong and when they go wrong they don't come back and when they go right they don't retrace back to entry, so a tighter SL may be wise.
Finally, I'm risking 1% of my account per trade.
Tomorrow I'll post the pairs that I'll be looking to get into Monday.
I think that's about it. If you have any questions or suggestions please feel free!
submitted by IndustrialFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex King Mt4 Trading Indicator: Unlimited & FREE Download

Forex King Mt4 Trading Indicator: Unlimited & FREE Download
Forex King Mt4 Trading Indicator is new and best profit gainers Metatrader 4 Indicator, proper use of Forex King Mt4 Trading Indicator can make you a successful forex trader.
Forex King Mt4 Trading Indicators and their performance.
1) Ichimoku
A classic indicator that combines several approaches to market analysis and is designed to identify trends, support lines, and resistance and generating buy/sell signals. In this strategy, we will use parameters 7, 42, 52 instead of the standard ones. Market entry carried out depending on the position of the current price relative to Ichimoku blue line indicator
2) GANNHILO-HISTO
An additional trend indicator for filtering signals. The entrance to the market is carried out depending on the color of the bar graph in the bottom parts of the graph.
3)GG-RSI-CCCI1
Another trend indicator for filtering signals. Market entry carried out depending on the color of the bar graph in the lower part graphics. As with the previous indicator, the Forex King strategy standard parameters for this indicator are used.

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submitted by mt4indicators to u/mt4indicators [link] [comments]

[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis

[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis

1. Breakout

Breakout strategies center around when the price clears a specified level on your chart, with increased volume. The breakout trader enters into a long position after the asset or security breaks above resistance. Alternatively, you enter a short position once the stock breaks below support.
After an asset or security trades beyond the specified price barrier, volatility usually increases and prices will often trend in the direction of the breakout.
You need to find the right instrument to trade. When doing this bear in mind the asset’s support and resistance levels. The more frequently the price has hit these points, the more validated and important they become.

Entry Points

This part is nice and straightforward. Prices set to close and above resistance levels require a bearish position. Prices set to close and below a support level need a bullish position.

Plan your exits

Use the asset’s recent performance to establish a reasonable price target. Using chart patterns will make this process even more accurate. You can calculate the average recent price swings to create a target. If the average price swing has been 3 points over the last several price swings, this would be a sensible target. Once you’ve reached that goal you can exit the trade and enjoy the profit.
https://preview.redd.it/0oj4a1xlvdh31.png?width=773&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f2aa07b0c7caeeb00c4f997c12e814abbd380da

2. Scalping

One of the most popular strategies is scalping. It’s particularly popular in the forex market, and it looks to capitalise on minute price changes. The driving force is quantity. You will look to sell as soon as the trade becomes profitable. This is a fast-paced and exciting way to trade, but it can be risky. You need a high trading probability to even out the low risk vs reward ratio.
Be on the lookout for volatile instruments, attractive liquidity and be hot on timing. You can’t wait for the market, you need to close losing trades as soon as possible.
https://preview.redd.it/dzaf7t1nvdh31.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3d96d74311de806c3809698df2a964e3eb4db5e

3. Momentum

Popular amongst trading strategies for beginners, this strategy revolves around acting on news sources and identifying substantial trending moves with the support of high volume. There is always at least one stock that moves around 20-30% each day, so there’s ample opportunity. You simply hold onto your position until you see signs of reversal and then get out.
Alternatively, you can fade the price drop. This way round your price target is as soon as volume starts to diminish.
This strategy is simple and effective if used correctly. However, you must ensure you’re aware of upcoming news and earnings announcements. Just a few seconds on each trade will make all the difference to your end of day profits.
https://preview.redd.it/z4r2o6covdh31.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b054c77c4bc5978821e879eff73d613d728cb0cf

4. Reversal

Although hotly debated and potentially dangerous when used by beginners, reverse trading is used all over the world. It’s also known as trend trading, pull back trending and a mean reversion strategy.
This strategy defies basic logic as you aim to trade against the trend. You need to be able to accurately identify possible pullbacks, plus predict their strength. To do this effectively you need in-depth market knowledge and experience.
The ‘daily pivot’ strategy is considered a unique case of reverse trading, as it centers on buying and selling the daily low and high pullbacks/reverse.
https://preview.redd.it/4ya3txcpvdh31.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=f40216413b1376b2d6d5a67e4d09057f55be6ba1

5. Using Pivot Points

A day trading pivot point strategy can be fantastic for identifying and acting on critical support and/or resistance levels. It is particularly useful in the forex market. In addition, it can be used by range-bound traders to identify points of entry, while trend and breakout traders can use pivot points to locate key levels that need to break for a move to count as a breakout.

Calculating Pivot Points

A pivot point is defined as a point of rotation. You use the prices of the previous day’s high and low, plus the closing price of a security to calculate the pivot point.
Note that if you calculate a pivot point using price information from a relatively short time frame, accuracy is often reduced.
So, how do you calculate a pivot point?
  • Central Pivot Point (P) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
You can then calculate support and resistance levels using the pivot point. To do that you will need to use the following formulas:
  • First Resistance (R1) = (2*P) – Low
  • First Support (S1) = (2*P) – High
The second level of support and resistance is then calculated as follows:
  • Second Resistance (R2) = P + (R1-S1)
  • Second Support (S2) = P – (R1- S1)

Application

When applied to the FX market, for example, you will find the trading range for the session often takes place between the pivot point and the first support and resistance levels. This is because a high number of traders play this range.
It’s also worth noting, this is one of the systems & methods that can be applied to indexes too. For example, it can help form an effective S&P day trading strategy

6. Moving Average Crossover

You will need three moving average lines:
  • One set at 20 periods – This is your fast moving average
  • One set at 60 periods – This is your slow moving average
  • One set at 100 periods – This is your trend indicator
This is one of the moving averages strategies that generates a buy signal when the fast moving average crosses up and over the slow moving average. A sell signal is generated simply when the fast moving average crosses below the slow moving average.
So, You’ll open a position when the moving average line crosses in one direction and you’ll close the position when it crosses back the opposite way.
How can you establish there’s definitely a trend? You know the trend is on if the price bar stays above or below the 100-period line.

the source : https://www.daytrading.com/strategies
submitted by JalelTounsi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Teach me please :)

Teach me please :)
Hey everyone,
My name is Allen and I am new to Forex trading. I've messed around with trading stocks a year ago, but never got good enough to profitability yet. Now, I want to learn how to trade Forex and hoping I can become profitable through consistency and persistence.
I recently opened a live account and have made 7 trades: 2 wins, 4 losses. I have been trading small and have followed my stop losses so my losses have been small. I am down net -$35 currently. Here are a few of my trades. If anyone has feedback or sees a pattern in my trading that I can improve on, please let me know. I mainly execute trades off when market taps a resistance/support level or EMA line.
Things that I think I need to improve on: 1) Identifying correct market trend
- Ex) sometimes I have trouble figuring out if market is pulling back on a downtrend or starting to create a higher low and reversing

2) Identifying proper entry signals
- I am still working on interpreting price action. I usually enter trades on 15min chart or 1 hour chart. I may need to stop using 15min chart because I get faked out easily from it. One thing I've been implementing and it has helped my patience is waiting for candles to close before assuming market trend. Such as waiting for 15min candle or 1hour candle to close before entering a trade.


Here are some examples of my trades:
1) NZD/USD (Loss) Entry: short 0.65313 Exit: 0.65394
Reason for entry: I thought the market was going to respect the green trend line. Stop loss was right above the trend line. I saw a wick on 15 min chart and a red engulfing candle following it.


1 hour chart

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2) USD/CHF (Loss) Entry: short 1.00876 Exit: 1.00942
Reason for entry: In the 1 hour chart, it broke it's uptrend structure by creating a lower low. It rejected off the .50 level of Fibonacci Retracement, which signaled me that it is possibly going to continue downtrending. Both, 4hour and 1 hour charts were under the 34EMA (orange trend line).
15 min chart


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


3) EUNZD (Win) Entry: short 1.71027 Exit: 1.70674 | 1.70884
Reasons for entry: - Market went under key level (orange horizontal line) - Market was under 34EMA (yellow trend line) - Broke through support (white horizontal line)
15 min chart
Where could I have gotten a better entry on this trade? I was negative for a long time until it finally broke the support. What will signal me if the market will be rejected off a resistance level or break through a resistance level?


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4) NZD/USD (Win) Entry: 0.65426 Exit: 0.65335 | 0.65215 | 0.65188
Reasons for entry:
- downward market trend - market rejected off 34EMA trendline (yellow trend line) - big red engulfing candle
https://preview.redd.it/7u6fidd78h131.png?width=1560&format=png&auto=webp&s=701cf325906e056ec5b71544c5bc4895a0117c02
Lessons I learned from this trade: - Be more patient on my take profit. Took first profits out too quickly because it was dropping so quick and I was scared it would bounce back up
- Find better entry
- Similar to the previous trade, I was in the negative for a while before it worked out. Where would be a proper signal for a short? Long wick followed by a red engulfing candle at resistance level?


Sorry for the long post! Hope you learned something from my mistakes and I would greatly appreciate any feedback you guys can give me! I believe forex trading can become the gateway to financial freedom for me and I want to do my best to make it work. I also live in Orange County, CA and wouldn't mind meeting anyone who is in the area to discuss strategies and learn from each other!
Hope everyone has a great night!
submitted by allenaxie to Forex [link] [comments]

US Venezuela Policy is About Oligarchy, Not Democracy

US Venezuela Policy is About Oligarchy, Not Democracy

The proven oil reserves in Venezuela are recognized as the LARGEST in the world, totaling 297 billion barrels.
While ignoring (and even supporting) the atrocities of authoritarian regimes in places like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Uzbekistan, US oligarchs have targeted Venezuela for “regime-change” in the name of “democracy”.
Currently, the US is engaging in economic warfare against Venezuela to foment a coup and remove its democratically elected president Nicolás Maduro.
Without providing solid evidence, our corporate-controlled government and mainstream media portray Maduro as a corrupt, repressive, and illegitimate leader with little to no support.

Ask yourself:

Do I ever see officials from the Venezuelan government appear in corporate news shows to tell THEIR side of the story?
What people DO get to comment on Venezuela and what are their credentials and agenda? Are these people essentially public relations agents for the US-orchestrated coup?
Does corporate news provide me with historical background of US imperialism in Venezuela to put these current events in context?

What Corporate-Controlled Media will NOT Tell You

The CIA was involved in the failed coup against Venezuela's popular leader Hugo Chavez in 2002.
Venezuela is not a strictly socialist country; it has a “mixed” economy - not unlike Norway or other Scandinavian countries.
Venezuela is a DEMOCRACY - unlike US-allies Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
In 2012, Jimmy Carter went on record saying:
“As a matter of fact, of the 92 elections that we've monitored, I would say the election process in Venezuela is the best in the world”
The opposition to Maduro knew they were going to lose the last election and so boycotted it in attempt to delegitimize the results.
The US actually tried to dissuade Maduro’s opponents from running!
Maduro invited international observers into the country in 2018 to monitor the last election but the opposition asked the UN not to send observers!
More than 80% of the Venezuelan population had not even HEARD of Juan Guaidó before Trump and the US state proclaimed him the “rightful” president.
Maduro’s approval ratings within his country are on par with opposition-controlled National Assembly. According to an October poll by opposition-aligned pollster Datanalisis, Venezuela's National Assembly, of which Juan Guaidó is president, has a disapproval rating of 70%.
Venezuela WANTS to sell its oil to the US – the US is their largest market and refines a majority of their oil.
US companies Chevron Corp, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International all have operations in Venezuela, and are allowed to continue to engage in transactions and activities with PDVSA and its joint ventures through July 27.
“No State or group of States has the right to intervene, directly or indirectly, for any reason whatever, in the internal or external affairs of any other State. The foregoing principle prohibits not only armed force but also any other form of interference or attempted threat against the personality of the State or against its political, economic, and cultural elements.” Organization of American States Charter

Why is the US Corporatocracy so Keen to Remove Maduro?

While Venezuela’s economy is not a strictly-state-run economy, its oil industry is nationalized and uses its revenues for the benefit of its citizens (especially the poor).
After years of crippling US sanctions Maduro stepped over a crucial line in October when his government announced that Venezuela was abandoning the US dollar and would be make all future transactions on the Venezuelan exchange market in euro.
Saddam Hussein also went off the dollar in favor of the euro in 2003 – we started dropping bombs on him the next month.
A similar decision by the Gadhafi government in Libya (2011) was quickly followed by a devastating US-orchestrated conflict - culminating in Gadhafi's capture by radical Islamists who sodomized him with a bayonet before killing him. Since then, Libya has gone from Africa's wealthiest country to a truly failed-state complete with a slave trade! To make matters worse, after the collapse of the Libyan government, its military arms were smuggled out of that country and into the hands of ISIS fighters in Iraq and Syria - enabling US-orchestrated chaos in those countries.

Who cares what currency a country uses to trade petroleum?

Answer: US oligarchy

The US dollar is central to US world economic domination.
Like all other modern currencies, it is a fiat currency – backed by no real assets to prop up its value.
In lieu of a “gold standard” we know operate on a de-facto “oil-standard”:
"After the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard in the early 1970s, the United States struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to standardize oil prices in dollar terms. Through this deal, the petrodollar system was born, along with a paradigm shift away from pegged exchanged rates and gold-backed currencies to non-backed, floating rate regimes.
The petrodollar system elevated the U.S. dollar to the world's reserve currency and, through this status, the United States enjoys persistent trade deficits and is a global economic hegemony." Investopedia
“The central banking Ponzi scheme requires an ever-increasing base of demand and the immediate silencing of those who would threaten its existence. Perhaps that is what the hurry [was] in removing Gaddafi in particular and those who might have been sympathetic to his monetary idea.” Anthony Wile

US Foreign Policy is about Oligarchy Not Democracy

Since World War II, the US has attempted to over-throw the 52 foreign governments. Aside from a handful of exceptions (China, Cuba, Vietnam, etc.), the US has been successful in the vast majority of these attempts.
US foreign policy is not about democracy – it is about exploiting the world’s resources in the interests of a small, ultra-wealthy global elite.
This exploitation benefits a small percentage of people at the top of the economic pyramid while the costs are born by those at the bottom.

US CIA Coup Playbook:

How to Plunder Resources from Foreign Countries While Pretending to Support Democracy
  1. Find a country with resources you want.
  2. Send in an “Economic Hitman” to offer bribes the country’s leader in the form of personally lucrative business deals. If he accepts the deal, the leader will amass a personal fortune in exchange for "privatizing” the resources you wish to extract.
If the leader will not accept your bribes, begin the regime-change process.
3) Engage in economic warfare by imposing crippling sanctions on the country and blame the ensuing shortages on the leader’s “socialist” policies.
4) Work with right-wing allies inside country to fund and organize an “astroturf” opposition group behind a corporate-friendly puppet.
5) Hire thugs inside country to incite unrest and violence against the government in coordination with your opposition group. Use corporate media to publicize the orchestrated outbursts as popular outrage and paint a picture of a “failed state” mired in corruption and chaos.
6) When the government arrests your thugs, decry the response as the brutal repression. Use corporate-owned media to demonize the target government as a despotic regime while praising your puppet opposition as champions of democracy.
7) Work with right-wing military leaders to organize the overthrow the government (offer them the same business deals the current leader refused).
8) If a military-led coup cannot be organized, create a mercenary army to carry out acts of terrorism against the government and its supporters. Portray the mercenaries as “freedom fighters” and their acts of terrorism as a “civil war”.
9) If the target government has popular and military support and is too well-defended for your mercenaries to over-throw: label the country a “rouge state” and wait for the right time to invade. Meanwhile, continue to wear the country’s government and populace down using steps 3 – 8.
10) Escalate the terror campaign within the country to provoke a military response from the country against the US. If they won’t take the bait , fabricate an attack or threat that you can sell to the US population as justification for an invasion.
11) Once the government is removed, set up your puppet regime to provide the illusion of sovereignty. The regime will facilitate and legitimize your appropriation of the country’s resources under the guise of "free" trade.
12) As you continue to extract the country’s resources, provide intelligence and military support to the puppet regime to suppress popular dissent within the country.
13) Use the demise of the former government as yet another example of the impracticality of “socialism.”
What Can I Do?
Call your senators and representatives to voice your opposition to US regime-change efforts in Venezuela.
https://www.commoncause.org/find-your-representative/
Please share this message with others.
Sources included at: https://link.medium.com/8DiA5xzx4T

‘Venezuela’: Media’s One-Word Rebuttal to the Threat of Socialism

ALAN MACLEOD FEBRUARY 8, 2019
A recent Gallup poll (8/13/18) found that a majority of millennials view socialism favorably, preferring it to capitalism. Democratic socialist Bernie Sanders is the most popular politician in the United States, while new leftist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (AOC) policies of higher taxes on the wealthy, free healthcare and public college tuition are highly popular—even among Republican voters (FAIR.org,1/23/19).
Alarmed by the growing threat of progressive policies at home, the establishment has found a one-word weapon to deploy against the rising tide: Venezuela. The trick is to attack any political figure or movement even remotely on the left by claiming they wish to turn the country into a “socialist wasteland” (Fox News, 2/2/19) run by a corrupt dictatorship, leaving its people hungry and devastated.
Leading the charge have been Fox News and other conservative outlets. One Fox opinion piece (1/25/19) claimed that Americans should be “absolutely disgusted” by the “fraud” of Bernie Sanders and Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker, as they “continue to promote a system that is causing mass starvation and the collapse of a country,” warning that is exactly what their failed socialist policies would bring to the US. (Back in the real world, while Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez identify as socialists, Warren is a self-described capitalist, and Booker is noted for his ties to Wall Street, whose support for his presidential bid he has reportedly been soliciting.) A second Fox Newsarticle (1/27/19) continues in the same vein, warning that, “At the heart of Venezuela’s collapse is a laundry list of socialist policies that have decimated its economy.”
The Wall Street Journal (1/28/19) describes calls for negotiations in Venezuela as “siding with the dictator.”
In an article entitled “Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn and the Starving Children of Venezuela,” the Washington Examiner (6/15/17) warned its readers to “beware the socialist utopia,” describing it as a dystopia where children go hungry thanks to socialism. The Wall Street Journal (1/28/19) recently condemned Sanders for his support of a “dictator,” despite the fact Bernie has strongly criticized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and dismissed Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, as a “dead Communist dictator” (Reuters, 6/1/16).
More supposedly centrist publications have continued this line of attack. The New York Times’ Bret Stephens (1/25/19) argued: “Venezuela is a socialist catastrophe. In the age of AOC, the lesson must be learned again”—namely, that “socialism never works,” as “20 years of socialism” has led to “the ruin of a nation.” The Miami Herald(2/1/19) cast shame on Sanders and AOC for arguing for socialism in the face of such overwhelming evidence against it, describing the left’s refusal to back self-appointed president Juan Guaidó, someone whom less than 20 percent of Venezuelans had even heard of, let alone voted for, as “morally repugnant.”
This useful weapon to be used against the left can only be sustained by withholding a great number of key facts—chief among them, the US role in Venezuela’s devastation. US sanctions, according to the Venezuelan opposition’s economics czar, are responsible for a halving of the country’s oil output (FAIR.org, 12/17/18). The UN Human Rights Council has formally condemned the US and discussed reparations to be paid, with one UN special rapporteur describing Trump’s sanctions as a possible “crime against humanity” (London Independent, 1/26/19). This has not been reported by any the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN or any other national US “resistance” news outlet, which have been only too quick to support Trump’s regime change plans (FAIR.org, 1/25/19).
Likewise, the local US-backed opposition’s role in the economic crisis is barely mentioned. The opposition, which controls much of the country’s food supply, has officially accepted responsibility for conducting an “economic war” by withholding food and other key goods.
For example, the monolithic Empresas Polar controls the majority of the flour production and distribution crucial for making arepa cornbread, Venezuela’s staple food. Polar’s chair is Leopoldo Lopez, national coordinator of Juan Guaidó’s Popular Will party, while its president is Lorenzo Mendoza, who considered running for president against Maduro in the 2018 elections that caused pandemonium in the media (FAIR.org, 5/23/18).
Conspicuously, it’s the products that Polar has a near-monopoly in that are often in shortest supply. This is hardly a secret, but never mentioned in the copious stories (CNN, 5/14/14, Bloomberg, 3/16/17, Washington Post, 5/22/17, NPR, 4/7/17) focusing on bread lines in the country.
Also rarely commented on was the fact that multiple international election observer missions declared the 2018 elections free and fair, and that Venezuelan government spending as a proportion of GDP (often considered a barometer of socialism) is actually lower than the US’s, and far lower than most of Europe’s, according to the conservative Heritage Foundation.
The London Daily Express (2/3/19) demonstrates that redbaiting works equally well on either side of the Atlantic.
Regardless of these bothersome facts, the media has continued to present Venezuela’s supposedly socialist dictatorship as solely responsible for its crisis as a warning to any progressives who get the wrong idea. So useful is this tool that it is being used to attack progressive movements around the world. The Daily Express (2/3/19) and Daily Mail (2/3/19) condemned UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn for his “defense” of a “dictator,” while the Daily Telegraph(2/3/19) warned that the catastrophe of Venezuela is Labour’s blueprint for Britain. Meanwhile, the Greek leftist party Syriza’s support for Maduro (the official position of three-quarters of UN member states) was condemned as “shameful” (London Independent, 1/29/19).
“Venezuela” is also used as a one-word response to shut down debate and counter any progressive idea or thought. While the panel on ABC’s The View (7/23/18) discussed progressive legislation like Medicare for All and immigration reform, conservative regular Meghan McCain responding by invoking Venezuela: “They’re starving to death” she explained, leaving the other panelists bemused.
President Trump has also used it. In response to criticism from Senator Elizabeth Warren over his “Pocahontas” jibe, he replied that she would “make our country into Venezuela” (Reuters, 10/15/18).
The weapon’s effectiveness can only be sustained through a media in lockstep with the government’s regime-change goals. That the media is fixated on the travails of a relatively small and unimportant country in America’s “backyard,” and that the picture of Venezuela is so shallow, is not a mistake. Rather, the simplistic narrative of a socialist dictatorship starving its own people provides great utility as a weapon for the establishment to beat back the domestic “threat” of socialism, by associating movements and figures such as Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jeremy Corbyn with an evil caricature they have carefully crafted.

Corporate Propaganda Blitz Against Venezuela’s Elected President: MSM Will Not Let Facts Interfere With Coup Agenda

Facts Don’t Interfere With Propaganda Blitz Against Venezuela’s Elected President Joe Emersberger
Guaidó, anointed by Trump and a new Iraq-style Coalition of the Willing, did not even run in Venezuela’s May 2018 presidential election. In fact, shortly before the election, Guaidó was not even mentioned by the opposition-aligned pollster Datanálisis when it published approval ratings of various prominent opposition leaders. Henri Falcón, who actually did run in the election (defying US threats against him) was claimed by the pollster to basically be in a statistical tie for most popular among them. It is remarkable to see the Western media dismiss this election as “fraudulent,” without even attempting to show that it was “stolen“ from Falcón. Perhaps that’s because it so clearly wasn’t stolen.
Graph: Approval Ratings of Main Venezuelan Leaders Nov 2016 - July 2018 Data from the opposition-aligned pollsters in Venezuela (via Torino Capital) indicates that Henri Falcón was the most popular of the major opposition figures at the time of the May 2018 presidential election. Nicolás Maduro won the election due to widespread opposition boycotting and votes drawn by another opposition candidate, Javier Bertucci.
The constitutional argument that Trump and his accomplices have used to “recognize” Guaidó rests on the preposterous claim that Maduro has “abandoned” the presidency by soundly beating Falcón in the election. Caracas-based journalist Lucas Koerner took apart that argument in more detail.
What about the McClatchy-owned Miami Herald's claim that Maduro “continues to reject international aid”? In November 2018, following a public appeal by Maduro, the UN did authorize emergency aid for Venezuela. It was even reported by Reuters (11/26/18), whose headlines have often broadcast the news agency’s contempt for Maduro’s government.
It’s not unusual for Western media to ignore facts they have themselves reported when a major “propaganda blitz” by Washington is underway against a government. For example, it was generally reported accurately in 1998 that UN weapons inspectors were withdrawn from Iraq ahead of air strikes ordered by Bill Clinton, not expelled by Iraq’s government. But by 2002, it became a staple of pro-war propaganda that Iraq had expelled weapons inspectors (Extra! Update, 10/02).
And, incidentally, when a Venezuelan NGO requested aid from the UN-linked Global Fund in 2017, it was turned down. Setting aside how effective foreign aid is at all (the example of Haiti hardly makes a great case for it), it is supposed to be distributed based on relative need, not based on how badly the US government wants somebody overthrown.
But the potential for “aid” to alleviate Venezuela’s crisis is negligible compared to the destructive impact of US economic sanctions. Near the end of the Miami Herald article, author Jim Wyss cited an estimate from the thoroughly demonized Venezuelan government that US sanctions have cost it $30 billion, with no time period specified for that estimate. Again, this calls to mind the run-up to the Iraq invasion, when completely factual statements that Iraq had no WMDs were attributed to the discredited Iraqi government. Quoting Iraqi denials supposedly balanced the lies spread in the media by US officials like John Bolton, who now leads the charge to overthrow Maduro. Wyss could have cited economists independent of the Maduro government on the impact of US sanctions—like US economist Mark Weisbrot, or the emphatically anti-Maduro Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodríguez.
Illegal US sanctions were first imposed in 2015 under a fraudulent “state of emergency” declared by Obama, and subsequently extended by Trump. The revenue lost to Venezuela’s government due to US economic sanctions since August 2017, when the impact became very easy to quantify, is by now well over $6 billion. That’s enormous in an economy that was only able to import about $11 billion of goods in 2018, and needs about $2 billion per year in medicines. Trump’s “recognition” of Guaidó as “interim president” was the pretext for making the already devastating sanctions much worse. Last month, Francisco Rodríguez revised his projection for the change in Venezuela’s real GDP in 2019, from an 11 percent contraction to 26 percent, after the intensified sanctions were announced.
The $20 million in US “aid” that Wyss is outraged Maduro won’t let in is a rounding error compared to the billions already lost from Trump’s sanctions.
Former US Ambassador to Venezuela William Brownfield, who pressed for more sanctions on Venezuela, dispensed with the standard “humanitarian” cover that US officials have offered for them (Intercept, 2/10/19):
And if we can do something that will bring that end quicker, we probably should do it, but we should do it understanding that it’s going to have an impact on millions and millions of people who are already having great difficulty finding enough to eat, getting themselves cured when they get sick, or finding clothes to put on their children before they go off to school. We don’t get to do this and pretend as though it has no impact there. We have to make the hard decision—the desired outcome justifies this fairly severe punishment.
How does this gruesome candor get missed by reporters like Wyss, and go unreported in his article?
Speaking of “severe punishment,” if the names John Bolton and Elliott Abrams don’t immediately call to mind the punishment they should be receiving for crimes against humanity, it illustrates how well the Western propaganda system functions. Bolton, a prime facilitator of the Iraq War, recently suggested that Maduro could be sent to a US-run torture camp in Cuba. Abrams played a key role in keeping US support flowing to mass murderers and torturers in Central America during the 1980s. Also significant that Abrams, brought in by Trump to help oust Maduro, used “humanitarian aid” as cover to supply weapons to the US-backed Contra terrorists in Nicaragua.
In the Miami Herald article, the use of US “aid” for military purposes is presented as another allegation made by the vilified Venezuelan president: “Maduro has repeatedly said the aid is cover for a military invasion and has ordered his armed forces not to let it in, even as food and medicine shortages sweep the country.”
Venezuela Accuses U.S. of Secretly Shipping Arms After Weapons Found on Plane with Possible CIA Ties | Democracy Now!
Calling for international aid and being democratically elected will do as little to protect Maduro’s government from US aggression as being disarmed of WMD did to prevent Iraq from being invaded—unless there is much more pushback from the US public against a lethal propaganda system.

When Is a Democracy not a Democracy? When It’s Venezuela and the US is Pushing Regime Change. Venezuela has as much right to call itself a democracy as does the United States. Until that is understood by enough people, the Trump administration will continue to devastate Venezuela’s economy with illegal sanctions and push it towards civil war.
Suggested Reading:
UN Rapporteur: US Sanctions Cause Death in Venezuela
Guaido is playing it fast and loose with the Bolivarian Constitution to justify a dictatorship
Trump’s Economic Sanctions Have Cost Venezuela About $6bn Since August 2017
How could Venezuela's president 'steal' the 2018 election from an unknown who didn't run?
In other news...
The Largest Protest Ever Was 15 Years Ago. The Iraq War Isn’t Over. What Happened?
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How To Find Support And Resistance Levels (Easily)

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