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The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch


Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:
  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!


Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers


Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee


Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.


Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.


Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897


Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.


Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:
https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

UK Guide to US Options Trading

This is guide to US options trading from the UK, because I've seen countless requests of people browsing in /ukinvesting, /options, /wallstreetbets etc. about this.
First thing's first - no part of this post is to be taken as financial advice. It is a guide on how to start options trading from the UK. Options/CFD trading is a high-risk activity and most retail traders lose money.

1. CFDs vs. Options

So getting started, options and contracts for difference (CFDs) are both financial derivatives - they derive their values from an underlying security e.g. stock, indices, currency, commodities. Long story short, CFDs do not have an expiration and options do; and at the option expiration date, options give the opportunity to buy/sell the underlying (e.g. stock) at the agreed strike price. CFDs are highly directional (delta) trades where positions require ongoing financing fees by a broker, whereas options strategies allow the trader to trade time decay (theta) as well as market volatility (vega). Options provide greater flexibility in trading strategies (time/volatility trading as well as direction); however, due to this, the more complex strategies can be difficult to understand.
Spread betting allows a literal directional bet of an underlying by a certain date. It is most similar naked options - i.e. if your position moves against you enough, your broker may forcibly close your position unfavourably and/or margin call you for extra cash ("you can lose more than your initial deposit"). With options/CFDs, you can define risk by specifying a profitability range (spreads) instead to avoid this scenario. Due to spread betting being so close to gambling, it is treated as such in the UK in terms of taxation - gains are tax free. I will also add here that CFDs/options can also be used in this manner (gambling, with subsequent margin calls etc.), and that CFD brokers tend to understate the risks of these strategies, whilst almost all options brokers require elevated permissions to seek out this level of risk - this is because blowing through margin presents a risk to the broker and they would rather have commissions without the risks of the brokerage going bust. The lowest level of permissions still allows you to buy extremely highly leveraged OTM options without margin, as your max loss is limited to the amount you paid for those options.

2. Brokers

Given that options effectively open up two additional aspects of trading (time/volatility) and require additional regulatory oversight compared to CFDs/spreadbetting, there is basically no options market in the UK - the only brokers at this time are IG/Saxo, and they only do vanilla options on Forex/Indices/Commodities. Everyone else only does CFDs and/or stock (T212, Freetrade, IG, Plus500 etc.). To engage in true stock options trading, the only choice is to open an international/US brokerage account.
The two that are accessible to UK investors are Interactive Brokers (IB) and TastyWorks. Both are reputable brokers and have strong insurances for cash & securities held with them.

3. Opening an account

I will walk through some of the aspects of funding and operating a TastyWorks account from the UK, as this is my recommendation if you're here looking for a cheap way to get started.
Opening a free account on TastyWorks is easy as they are used to foreign traders (form filling within 20-60 mins - you will need a photo of proof of ID and address). It typically takes 1 day for cash accounts and 2-3 days for margin accounts to be ready for funding. My referral link if you feel this guide deserves the effort is: https://start.tastyworks.com/#/login?referralCode=GD9EGGNZYZ. (mods, happy to remove this is this guide is deemed low effort)
The account types are:

4. Funding the Account

Since trading US options is done in USD, the account must be funded in USD. As international traders, deposits must be "By Wire", assuming you do not have a US bank account - full instructions for the "By Wire" method will show up when you are approved to fund your account. With TastyWorks, UK traders have 3 options at time of writing, going from highest to lowest fee:
1) Starling Bank: ~1% commission (+flat fee TBC?)
2) CurrencyFair: typical ~0.75% commission +$20 flat fee
3) TransferWise/Revolut + UK USD Account: ~0.5% commission +$20 flat fee
TastyWorks does not accept third party transfers (accounts not in your name), so services such as Revolut and TransferWise (inc. borderless) do not work directly
4.1 Starling Bank
With Starling Bank, you can do an international wire from a GBP account directly. Easy online bank setup and probably fastest way to get started, especially if you already bank with them. Note: Starling Bank is rejecting transfers to TastyWorks 'as it sits out of our international payment provider's risk appetite' (as of 11th May) - waiting for updates
Note that other routes include a $20 flat fee charged by intermediate banks before the transfer reaches TastyWorks. Haven't got confirmation that this route is charged or if Starling includes it within their higher fee.
4.2 CurrencyFair
TastyWorks have approved transfers via CurrencyFair with a guide at: https://support.tastyworks.com/support/solutions/articles/43000435321-can-i-use-currencyfair-to-fund-my-account-
Easy to get started, but a couple hoops to jump through to confirm your transaction to TastyWorks via email.
Note that the $20 flat fee is for an intermediary bank to take their cut between CF and TastyWorks, but that is not mentioned on the CurrencyFair website.
4.3 USD account + TransferWise/Revolut
The cheapest option is to set up a USD currency account and transfer through that.
The account of choice is the Barclays USD Foreign Currency account - you need a current account with them to be able to open the USD account. HSBC also have an offering, but not had this route confirmed.
Once the USD account is open, you can transfer into it using Revolut/TransferWise (cheap) and then international (wire) transfer from Barclays account to TastyWorks (free!). Note that the Barclays USD account is still a UK bank account, so you'll need to use a SWIFT transfer from Revolut/TransferWise to turn your GBP into USD.
Note that the $20 flat fee is for an intermediary bank to take their cut between Barclays and TastyWorks, but that is not mentioned on the Barclays website.
4.4 Withdrawals
To withdraw funds, do the opposite for a deposit, noting that $45 will be charged by TastyWorks per withdrawal.

5. Getting Started

I highly, highly recommend TastyWork's education centre and their TastyTrade videos, especially if you are new to this.
Otherwise, once funded, it's as simple as downloading the app on mobile, using the browser trading screen, or downloading their full desktop platform.
That's it for the guide - happy trading, and if there are any questions, feel free to get in touch and I'll edit the answers in here. I want this to be a resource because I've helped many people get started, and it would be good to have it all in one place!
submitted by TheScotchEngineer to UKInvesting [link] [comments]

My timeline of 20 years of trading (good and bad) to profitability

Tips for picking mentors
This is what works for me, and what I would tell my younger self. Don't let anyone tell you who's good or not, and who's helpful or not. Always start with an open mind. I follow Ferrari flashing you tube traders and dry professorial educators who use pen and paper. All that matters is that they help you make money.
I am 41.
16 (1995): Started designing web pages for friends and family and local businesses.
18 (1997): Opened my first account with $10k on parents advise but had little interest. Started a pro-gaming league hosting tournaments around the country for Starcraft.
20: (1999) Had an established client based now (LSU Tigers website and first online auction service, Texas Roadhouse, et al)
Saved $25k now from working. Decided to pay taxes for the first time. Suddenly became very conservative (fiscally) and wanted to know how to make back the money the Government just stole from me (preferably directly from them).
  1. (2001) Became very ill and had to drop out of college and quit my businesses. I slowly lost every friend and contact I had made since childhood.
  2. Spent the last 15 years Warren-Buffetting (buying things I know that seem affordable) my way up and down from 5$k - $35k. I was good enough to be able to take money out to live and had a little family money (from a portion of a family insurance company I provided services for) that I lived comfortably. I blew up a few times a long the way and didn't know what a candlestick was.
  3. Went into liver failure and ICU at Mayo Clinic. Got out a year later weighing 90 pounds.
39-41. Started turning a corner. I started reading Daytrading and met an ex-gambler (gone now) who was posting occasional watch lists of gappers and ran a discord chatroom calling breakout ORB5 setups. I noticed he picked a lot of winners and did not want to copy him but wanted to know HOW he picked them. I joined his room. I think he had started it the day before because there were like 3 of us. He was offering instruction on how to scan for break out long and short possibilies on FinViz. (Long https://bit.ly/2ZV8LQK: Short: https://bit.ly/2O6oo2B )
I was literally like.. "whats a vwap". He was so patient with me and we became friends. He moved on to bigger goals since then but we are still in touch. I was making nearly $2k a day following his alerts. He was a good mentor (luckily) because he never told me entries or exits. he would tell me his thoughts but never specifics - that was up to me. I learned a great deal from him, but once he left I could not pick the winners like he could. I could trade stocks but I could not pick stocks. I wanted to find winners on my own. I ended up paying him about $90 for a an hour "lesson" after we quite some time but I was already profitable and already knew everything he went over but I wanted to support him and be his first paid endoresement. He was so good at picking winners and losers that he was actually offered a lucritive private job and he accepted. He was the first person who changed my trading life.
(I did pay for a couple "indicators and services" and that I ..learned a lot from the lesson in stupidity they gave me but will not mention them by name. I'm sure my timing on things is a little off on details. When I say I bought an "indicator" this means a specific tool used to do something that I cannot do myself or to make up for a weakness I have (counting waves). Not a "green arrow buy and green arrow to sell" indicator.)
I literally googled "how to stop having trades turn against you" and watched a video I would later learn was on Stochstic Divergences from someone named Barry Burns. I researched him and watched about a hundred of his videos and was fascinated. I read one concerning review but then read that the person never took his courses and was just made because he would not provide financial statements as proof he was a profitable trader. (he does not give trade alerts, he's just an instructor so he never does this). I took a webinar on the weekend. He does one weekly at least. He asked for 250 people max and a thousand showed up. He had a chatbox and answered my question personally so after that I felt confident enough to pay him for course. I emailed him and he responded personally with a course outline. I took a beginner course and was dying to learn more. He just happened to have a special for basically every course he's ever done for half the cost. I decided this was a way to trade that spoke to my strengths and I wanted to try to master it so I did it all. Beginner to masterclass, trends, scalps, reversals, fib, cycles, waves, crosses, sector research, futures, options, stocks, forex, minute charts to yearly, tick , heikin ashi, divergences.. it went on and on and I ate it up with a spoon. At the same time I started reading books. We correspond through emails still and sometime's hes busy. I don't know if he even knows who I am but he was the second person who changed my trading life.
I knew a lot but I was losing (often more) money. I was a "doctor" (maybe an high-school nurse) who had read a book on surgery but never done it and said "sure.. I can transplant a heart!"
Rather than focus on my teachings and understanding what I was learning, I got impatient and moved on too quickly. Anything I mention I did find helpful but not always at the time that I found it. I should have mastered each item then added to my already profitable program. I had neither of those things. The course I took from Barry Burns had some custom indicators for some platforms, but none I used. They were not "premium indicators" so to speak of little buy now arrows, but simply auto labeling of waves and cycles, auto drawing of some divergences etc. He teaches counting different from anyone else I've seen so standard Elliot wave theory did not work. I was frustrated. I was wondering if I made a mistake learning something differently than other people. (in the end it was irrelevant. It was an understanding of concepts and theory that mattered. The means by which you learned it is far less important. I would definitely take his courses again as my entry into trading if I did it again)
I knew how to trade I did not know what or when to trade them. I found a man named Robert Payne. He writes custom indicators for thinkorswim, many of which are are only available on other platforms. I had a lot of programming experience so I bought a couple of things from him and started studying his code. He was amazing! His code is top quality and his indicators actually were very good. And they did start helping me find a few setups. But they were expensive and nothing lasted. I would buy a Wolfe Wave indicator and learn to trade it but not understand what it was doing. We e-mailed back and fourth for a little while as he was teaching me how to use his stuff. He introduced me to a number of people (who often were behind the original indicators he was trying to replicate) and for that I am most grateful to him. The first and most influential to me later was Scott Carney.
Scott runs HarmonicTrader.com. He sells a very reasonable (I think its like 20 bucks a month when he does a sale) where you get a morning trade meeting about the market and futures commodities harmonics that are setting up, a harmonic pattern indicator for almost any platform (some are far better than others)) and books and videos all focused on this one thing he has dedicated his life to.
I went to culinary school for a year. My first Chef instructor told our class on day one: "always source from people who specialize in one thing". On dozens of trips to Mexico in my youth we would drive ATC's up dirt roads to these small shacks. The last house on the left was Lupe and she always had a baby in one arm and a ladle in the other where she pour tortilla batter on a griddle press. I doubt it was clean, everything was covered in dirt from the windy sandy landscape - but they were the best damn tortilla's in the world.
Scott Carney is my chubby little Mexican goddess of trading Harmonic patterns and the third person who changed my trading life. (and he would not be happy if I called him that)
At this point I was struggling to find tradable stocks still. I started leaving all my chatrooms and twitter groups and message boards. I limit my twitter to people who trade better than me or up-my-game in some way. I try not to "mingle" with people of my skill level too much. I want to be challenged constantly.
I met a few more mentors but no more paid programs. Instead I pay for services like good websites and platforms that help me make my own decisions. I started associating and following expert technicians and I learn from every day and week in videos charts and tweets.
Now when I see this:
https://chrt.biz/LOVE/12425esmrhl/chart/
This is what I see in my head.
https://chrt.biz/LOVE/12425equ72v/chart/
and when I see this
https://chrt.biz/CCH/12425esm49g/chart/
I see this
https://chrt.biz/CCH/12425eqxxj4
And when I have nothing to trade, I can write my own scan and find my own winner and trade it without outside help.
There was no short cut. I put hours and hours and hour and hours in charting a hundred charts a day. Repetition = learning. Just make sure you are learning something you won't regret.
submitted by UncleRyan79 to UncleRyanAZ [link] [comments]

Summary of offers (total £100+) that require no deposit or spend (great for new members!)

I've noticed among the new members joining, people sometimes ask which offers they should do first, or which ones they could do when they don't have the £/€100 it takes to do many of the offers here. So I hope this little summary of no-spend offers will be helpful to you!
You can make ~£107 with the offers below without spending anything (up to £216 if you do the extra tasks). Notice I included some cryptocurrency offers - don't be afraid of these; they carry pretty much zero risk as you don't need to deposit anything (=buy crypto) - you only need to convert the cryptocurrency bonus back into £/€. If you need help with this, feel free to message me.
I also mention Revolut below, which is a popular online "bank" account. My app is currently not showing any promotions for new users, but perhaps someone else has a referral link for you that will make you some cash!

Swissborg: ~$65
A Swiss fintech focusing on crypto wealth management. You earn CHSB (their token) by collecting badges for doing simple tasks in the app. You can get 600 CHSB (~$65) without much effort, and if you can invite 20 people, you can get up to 1750 CHSB ($190). Please check the current CHSB exchange rate as the token's value may fluctuate.
  1. Download the app.
  2. Register for an account (use my referral code ETTVC6Q and we both get 3,000 points). Tip: the code will get you started with 3,000 points - make your first forecast with 1,000 points and you'll get your first badge :) [don't use a code for no bonus]
  3. Collect badges and earn!
  4. In order to redeem the prizes, you'll need to download their Wealth app and verify ID. The rewards should be redeemable in Q3 2020, once the competition ends (by September).
Detailed post about Swissborg (the token value might have changed since)

Bitwala: €15
A German bank account with integrated crypto services.
  1. Sign up with my link (non-ref-link, no bonus) and verify your identity. (Prepare your passport and a printed proof of address (e.g. bank statement). If no-one picks up for more than a few mins, hang up & try again)
  2. Create a bitcoin wallet in your account.
  3. €15 will be credited to your account within 15 business days. You can withdraw it right after you receive it.
Detailed post about Bitwala

Morpher: ~$15
An upcoming Austrian platform for trading stocks, crypto, and forex.
  1. Sign up via my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Verify your identity.
  3. Get 500 Morpher tokens (estimated value $15) when you get invited to the app and withdrawals are enabled (this should be soon)
Detailed post about Morpher

Quidco: £10
A popular UK cashback site.
  1. Sign up with my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Your bonus will be credited once you reach £5 in confirmed cashback - browse the Free Cashback section for no-spend offers!

Topcashback: £5
Another UK cashback site.
  1. Sign up with my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Your bonus will be credited once you reach £10 in confirmed cashback. Again, you could browse the no-spend offers, or buy something from a store where you'd shop anyways!

Curve: £5
A debit card to which you add your existing cards, and then you only have to carry the Curve card and choose which underlying card to pay with in the app.
  1. Download the app using this link (use code D8XMLG5E when signing up. No code, no bonus.)
  2. Order a free card (=Curve Blue).
  3. When it arrives, link a card you already own to your new Curve card.
  4. Make a first transaction with the Curve card (this can either be a regular in-store/online purchase, but people have successfully gotten the bonus just by linking the Curve card to their Paypal account or by connecting it to Google Pay/Apple Pay - so you don't have to spend anything. There's also no minimum spend requirement.) Note: you must make your first transaction within 7 days from signing up!
  5. £5 will be added to your Curve Cash card. You can spend it immediately. You can also send it to your Revolut - set up a payment link in Revolut, and pay it using the Curve card, with Curve Cash set as the underlying card.
Detailed post about Curve

Bitpanda: €5+
A reputable Austrian cryptocurrency exchange.
  1. Sign up using my link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Verify your identity.
  3. Complete the beginner quiz and receive €5 in BEST (the Bitpanda token).
  4. Bonus: you can get an extra €10 if you're willing to deposit €25 and complete your first crypto trade of at least €25. The bonus will be credited instantly. Tip: buy BEST for €25, and then sell all BEST including the €5 bonus.
Note: you can withdraw the bonuses right after you receive them, but the minimum withdrawal and deposit amount is €/£25, so you can either deposit €/£25, get the extra €10, and withdraw everything back, or - if you don't want to deposit anything - you can transfer the BEST bonus to another crypto exchange or wallet. Up to you :)
Detailed post about Bitpanda

Zelf: €5
An upcoming service where you can do banking in your favorite messenger app (Messenger, Whatsapp, etc).
  1. Sign up using my link and finish the registration in your favorite messaging platform. (non-ref-link, no bonus)
  2. Get €5 when they launch. Everybody in France and Spain should get their cards by the end of June and the rest of Europe by September.
Detailed post about Zelf
Let me know if you need help with any of these!
submitted by One_Refrigerator to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Some tips for Choosing a Mentor

This is what works for me, and what I would tell my younger self. Don't let anyone tell you who's good or not, and who's helpful or not. Always start with an open mind. I follow Ferrari flashing you tube traders and dry professorial educators who use pen and paper. All that matters is that they help you make money.
Top portion are tips. I posted a long outline below of my timeline (shorter version of my first post) and good and bad decisions I made. I'm not always sure what information helps people. I enjoyed posts like this while I was learning.
Tips

My Timeline
  1. Saved $25k from self employment. Decided to pay taxes for the first time. Suddenly became very conservative (fiscally) and wanted to know how to make back the money the Government just took from me (preferably directly from them).
  2. (2001) Became very ill and had to drop out of college and quit my work.
  3. Spent the next 15 years Warren-Buffetting (buying things I know that seem affordable) my way up and down. I was good enough to be able to take money out to live comfortably. I blew up a few times a long the way and didn't know what a candlestick was.
  4. 3-4 years in a health crisis
38-40. Started turning a corner. I started reading Daytrading and met an ex-gambler (gone now) who was posting occasional watch lists of gappers and ran a discord chatroom calling breakout ORB5 setups. I noticed he picked a lot of winners and did not want to copy him but wanted to know HOW he picked them. I joined his room. I think he had started it the day before because there were like 3 of us. He was offering instruction on how to scan for break out long and short possibilies on FinViz. (Long https://bit.ly/2ZV8LQK: Short: https://bit.ly/2O6oo2B )
I was literally like.. "whats a vwap". He was so patient with me and we became friends. He moved on to bigger goals since then but we are still in touch. I was making nearly $2k a day following his alerts. He was a good mentor (luckily) because he never told me entries or exits. he would tell me his thoughts but never specifics - that was up to me. I learned a great deal from him, but once he left I could not pick the winners like he could. I could trade stocks but I could not pick stocks. I wanted to find winners on my own. I ended up paying him about $90 for a an hour "lesson" after we quite some time but I was already profitable and already knew everything he went over but I wanted to support him and be his first paid endoresement. He was so good at picking winners and losers that he was actually offered a lucritive private job and he accepted. He was the first person who changed my trading life.
(I did pay for a couple "indicators and services" and that I ..learned a lot from the lesson in stupidity they gave me but will not mention them by name. I'm sure my timing on things is a little off on details. When I say I bought an "indicator" this means a specific tool used to do something that I cannot do myself or to make up for a weakness I have (counting waves). Not a "green arrow buy and green arrow to sell" indicator.)
I literally googled "how to stop having trades turn against you" and watched a video I would later learn was on Stochstic Divergences from someone named Barry Burns. I researched him and watched about a hundred of his videos and was fascinated. I read one concerning review but then read that the person never took his courses and was just made because he would not provide financial statements as proof he was a profitable trader. (he does not give trade alerts, he's just an instructor so he never does this). I took a webinar on the weekend. He does one weekly at least. He asked for 250 people max and a thousand showed up. He had a chatbox and answered my question personally so after that I felt confident enough to pay him for course. I emailed him and he responded personally with a course outline. I took a beginner course and was dying to learn more. He just happened to have a special for basically every course he's ever done for half the cost. I decided this was a way to trade that spoke to my strengths and I wanted to try to master it so I did it all. Beginner to masterclass, trends, scalps, reversals, fib, cycles, waves, crosses, sector research, futures, options, stocks, forex, minute charts to yearly, tick , heikin ashi, divergences.. it went on and on and I ate it up with a spoon. At the same time I started reading books. We correspond through emails still and sometime's hes busy. I don't know if he even knows who I am but he was the second person who changed my trading life.
I knew a lot but I was losing (often more) money. I was a "doctor" (maybe an high-school nurse) who had read a book on surgery but never done it and said "sure.. I can transplant a heart!"
Rather than focus on my teachings and understanding what I was learning, I got impatient and moved on too quickly. Anything I mention I did find helpful but not always at the time that I found it. I should have mastered each item then added to my already profitable program. I had neither of those things. The course I took from Barry Burns had some custom indicators for some platforms, but none I used. They were not "premium indicators" so to speak of little buy now arrows, but simply auto labeling of waves and cycles, auto drawing of some divergences etc. He teaches counting different from anyone else I've seen so standard Elliot wave theory did not work. I was frustrated. I was wondering if I made a mistake learning something differently than other people. (in the end it was irrelevant. It was an understanding of concepts and theory that mattered. The means by which you learned it is far less important. I would definitely take his courses again as my entry into trading if I did it again)
I knew how to trade I did not know what or when to trade them. I found a man named Robert Payne. He writes custom indicators for thinkorswim, many of which are are only available on other platforms. I had a lot of programming experience so I bought a couple of things from him and started studying his code. He was amazing! His code is top quality and his indicators actually were very good. And they did start helping me find a few setups. But they were expensive and nothing lasted. I would buy a Wolfe Wave indicator and learn to trade it but not understand what it was doing. We e-mailed back and fourth for a little while as he was teaching me how to use his stuff. He introduced me to a number of people (who often were behind the original indicators he was trying to replicate) and for that I am most grateful to him. The first and most influential to me later was Scott Carney.
Scott runs HarmonicTrader.com. He sells a very reasonable (I think its like 20 bucks a month when he does a sale) where you get a morning trade meeting about the market and futures commodities harmonics that are setting up, a harmonic pattern indicator for almost any platform (some are far better than others)) and books and videos all focused on this one thing he has dedicated his life to.
I went to culinary school for a year. My first Chef instructor told our class on day one: "always source from people who specialize in one thing". On dozens of trips to Mexico in my youth we would drive ATC's up dirt roads to these small shacks. The last house on the left was Lupe and she always had a baby in one arm and a ladle in the other where she pour tortilla batter on a griddle press. I doubt it was clean, everything was covered in dirt from the windy sandy landscape - but they were the best damn tortilla's in the world.
Scott Carney is my chubby little Mexican goddess of trading Harmonic patterns and the third person who changed my trading life. (and he would not be happy if I called him that)
At this point I was struggling to find tradable stocks still. I started leaving all my chatrooms and twitter groups and message boards. I limit my twitter to people who trade better than me or up-my-game in some way. I try not to "mingle" with people of my skill level too much. I want to be challenged constantly.
I met a few more mentors but no more paid programs. Instead I pay for services like good websites and platforms that help me make my own decisions. I started associating and following expert technicians and I learn from every day and week in videos charts and tweets.
41 I started studing #thestrat on twitter and following the mentor Rob Smith. He taught me price discovery, time frame continuity and participation groups. He is the fourth person who changed my trading life.
Now when I see this:
https://chrt.biz/LOVE/12425esmrhl/chart/
This is what I see in my head.
https://chrt.biz/LOVE/12425equ72v/chart/
and when I see this
https://chrt.biz/CCH/12425esm49g/chart/
I see this
https://chrt.biz/CCH/12425eqxxj4
And when I have nothing to trade, I can write my own scan and find my own winner and trade it without outside help. They aren't all winners. Plenty of losers. But I do it without help and that was my goal from day one. There were definitely turning points in my journey where the knowledge I learned caught up with the trading I was doing. If I had to do it over again, I don't think I would do anything differently. Even my mistakes were learning opportunities and brought me to where I am today.
There was no short cut. This is the hardest thing I've tried to do in my life and I've had some doozy's. I put hours and hours and hour and hours in charting a hundred charts a day. Repetition = learning for me. Just make sure you are learning something you won't regret. It's almost impossible to unlearn and I spend the majority of my time trying to stick to a rule-set to counteract things I learned incorrectly. I revisited things like Harmonics (that I trade daily now) as I gained more skill and finally things started coming together for me more and more until I just started to see patterns and trends and set ups naturally. Trading is a learnable skill that anyone can accomplish with hard work and focus.

Good Luck. Be Safe.
submitted by UncleRyan79 to UncleRyanAZ [link] [comments]

[Hiring] Fund management/distribution for traders and investors! ( $500 - $1,000)

Hi guys! . A licensed SFOX worker ( Forex Trading) We will be offering an opportunity to who is willing to handle a spot of distributing and handling funds for our investors and traders on our platform.
This requires no experience of the trade or platform. The willing personnel should have a crypto wallet, an active bank account and a credit card ( for withdrawal and crypto deposit.) Security info will be required for safety and to avoid theft. . This opportunity earns you quite a lot in no time, if the willing personnel is fast in his procedure, honest and trustworthy! The willing personnel has to be always active on any social platform given. To carry out it's work! . The payment is elastic and flexible, whilst to the amount been held for distribution or handled (at least 20% or 30%) and the willing personnel has to be a citizen of either the States or Canada!. . My PM is open for application and questions are welcome. . Benefit** A willing personnel that works truthfully and has loyalty will be given a free funded account on Forex Trading to trade for him or herself. . Thank You all.
submitted by mentalblinker to jobbit [link] [comments]

Summary of offers (total £70) that require no deposit or spend (great for new members!)

I've noticed among the new members joining lately, people sometimes ask which offers they should do first, or which ones they could do when they don't have the £/€100 it takes to do many of the offers here. So I hope this little summary of no-spend offers will be helpful to you!
You can make £70 with the offers below without spending anything (up to £100 or even more if you include the "bonus" tasks). Notice I included some cryptocurrency offers - don't be afraid of these; they carry pretty much zero risk as you don't need to deposit anything (=buy crypto) - you only need to convert the cryptocurrency bonus back into £/€. If you need help with this, feel free to message me.
I also mention Revolut below, which is a popular online "bank" account. Sadly my app is currently not showing any promotions for new users, but perhaps someone else has a referral link for you that will make you some cash!

Swissborg ($17+) (edit: this is now worth at least $50 as of 10 June, the token's value has gone up)
A Swiss fintech focusing on crypto wealth management. You earn CHSB (their token) by collecting badges for doing simple tasks in the app
  1. Download the app.
  2. Register for an account (use my referral code ETTVC6Q and we both get 3,000 points). Tip: the code will get you started with 3,000 points - make your first forecast with 1,000 points and you'll get your first badge :) \don't use a code for no bonus])
  3. Collect badges and earn!
  4. In order to redeem the prizes, you'll need to download their Wealth app. The rewards should be redeemable starting in June. The app is already available for download; get it, pass KYC and you'll be ready to receive your rewards.
Bonus: if you can refer up to 20 people, you'll get $50 in total. ($150+ as of 10 June)
Detailed post about Swissborg

Bitwala - €15
A German bank account with integrated crypto services.
  1. Sign up with my link (non-ref-link, no bonus) and verify your identity. (Prepare your passport and a printed proof of address (e.g. bank statement). If no-one picks up for more than a few mins, hang up & try again)
  2. Create a bitcoin wallet in your account.
  3. €15 will be credited to your account within 15 business days. You can withdraw it right after you receive it.
Detailed post about Bitwala

Morpher - $15
An upcoming Austrian platform for trading stocks, crypto, and forex.
  1. Sign up via my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Verify your identity.
  3. Get $15 when they launch (June)
Detailed post about Morpher

Quidco - £10
A UK cashback site.
  1. Sign up with my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Your bonus will be credited once you reach £5 in confirmed cashback - browse the Free Cashback section for no-spend offers, or search for "MyHeritage," you could get £5.20 for doing a free trial (just make sure to cancel on time).

Topcashback - £5
Another UK cashback site.
  1. Sign up with my referral link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Your bonus will be credited once you reach £10 in confirmed cashback. Again, you could browse the no-spend offers, or buy something from a store where you'd shop anyways!

Curve - £5
A debit card to which you add your existing cards, and then you only have to carry the Curve card and choose which underlying card to pay with in the app.
  1. Download the app using this link (use code D8XMLG5E when signing up. No code, no bonus.)
  2. Order a free card (=Curve Blue).
  3. When it arrives, link a card you already own to your new Curve card.
  4. Make a first transaction with the Curve card (you can try to top up your Revolut account and therefore not spend anything extra, but you can also just make a regular purchase, however small, if Revolut doesn't work)
  5. £5 will be added to your Curve Cash card. To withdraw it, set up a payment link in Revolut, and pay it using the Curve card, with Curve Cash set as the underlying card.

Bitpanda - €5+
A reputable Austrian cryptocurrency exchange.
  1. Sign up using my link (non-ref link - no bonus)
  2. Verify your identity.
  3. Complete the beginner quiz and receive €5 in BEST (the Bitpanda token).
  4. Bonus: you can get an extra €10 if you're willing to deposit €25 and complete your first crypto trade of at least €25. The bonus will be credited instantly. Tip: buy BEST for €25, and then sell all BEST including the €5 bonus.
Note: you can withdraw the bonuses right after you receive them, but the minimum withdrawal and deposit amount is €/£25, so you can either deposit €/£25, get the extra €10, and withdraw everything back, or - if you don't want to deposit anything - you can transfer the BEST bonus to another crypto exchange or wallet. Up to you :)
Detailed post about Bitpanda

Zelf - €5
An upcoming service where you can do banking in your favorite messenger app (Messenger, Whatsapp, etc).
  1. Sign up using my link and finish the registration in your favorite messaging platform. (non-ref-link, no bonus)
  2. Get €5 when they launch. For the UK the launch is scheduled to October. (launch update)
Detailed post about Zelf
Feel free to message me if you need help with these, or search this sub for the name of the offer for detailed posts with people's reactions etc.
submitted by One_Refrigerator to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Lincolnfx Review; How to Recover Money from Lincolnfx

Lincoln FX is a fake forex and investment trading targeting people in the UK, Spain, Germany and Europe. Hire a verified recovery expert to get lost money from Lincolnfx.capital
Lincolnfx.capital ReviewLincolnFX offers its customers the following accounts with which to execute trades:
For all the account types, the maximum leverage offered is 1:500, but we could not find any information on what the minimum deposit requirement is.
LincolnFX.capital General Information
Website URL: https://www.lincolnfx.capital/ Founded: 2018 Regulations: No Languages: English, German, Spanish Deposit Methods: SecureMasterpay Minimum Deposit: N/A Free Demo Account: Offered Number of Assets: Unknown Types of Assets: Forex Currency Pairs, Various CFDs
Trading Accounts and Conditions
LincolnFX offers its customers the following accounts with which to execute trades:
For all the account types, the maximum leverage offered is 1:500, but we could not find any information on what the minimum deposit requirement is.
LincolnFX.Capital Features
Here are the advantages of trading with LincolnFX:
Trading Conditions: Based on the information that we found on the broker’s demo account, the trading conditions seem quite favorable to traders. The maximum leverage LincolnFX offers is 1:500 and the spread that is in the range of 1 pip.
A leverage level such as that offered by LincolnFX is something that will appeal to most traders, including those that prefer high-risk investments. And we checked the spread for the EURUSD currency pair and found the spread at 1.5 pips, which is on par with industry standards, and favorable for traders.
MetaTrader 4 Platform: Another thing trading with LincolnFX offers is the MT4 trading platform. The MT4 platform is the world’s most preferred trading software since it offers its users the full array of trading tools – strong charting options, over 50 in-built market indicators, a range of EAs (Expert Advisors), and the benefit of customizing the EA and market indicators to your requirements. You also get a comprehensive set of back-testing options for each of these features.
Demo Account: Yet another advantage of trading with LincolnFx is that you can test the trading conditions the broker offers. This lends the broker a sense of transparency, which is why many traders may be tempted to deal with LincolnFX.
Range of Assets: LincolnFX offers its clients a surprisingly wide range of trading instruments, which is another point in its favor. Traders can choose from a large number of currency pairs, including some exotic and minor ones. Added to the forex offerings are a range of CFDs to choose from.
How to Recover Money from Lincolnfx.capital
When you look at the string of features we have listed for this broker, you might be considering doing business with LincolnFX. However, before you do so, please read out insights into the disadvantages of doing business with this broker before you take that step:
Lack of Corporate Information
This broker has not provided the necessary corporate information that all brokers should. All that we could find on LincolnFX’s website was a telephone number that was prefixed with a UK country code.
The name of the company that owns and operates this brokerage is Lincolnfx.capital Ltd.
When we checked these two pieces of information, we found out that such a company doesn’t exist at all. You can recover money lost to Lincolnfx.capital by hiring a Verified Recovery Expert.
submitted by maspetertho to u/maspetertho [link] [comments]

Options for retirement saving for 51yo male non tax resident

OK gurus, looking for some opinions.
So I am 51, no valuable assets and divorced. My divorce ruined me and I am on track to break the $0 nett worth in Oct/Nov when I finish paying off my loans (excluding super and tax). I am an Aust non tax resident.
My Super is around $60K and my tax bill $35K which is paid the year after assessment at around $2.5K per month. I pay all expenses for my children who are living in Aus and have just finished paying maintenance to the ex. With current income and costs I will be saving a few thousand dollars every month which used to go to the ex and I need to invest for my retirement.
Option 1 (currently my preference)
Use the 10K + 10K Super to pay off my loans slightly early, then put those payments and extra savings towards a deposit on Uni accommodation as I am paying rent in Aust for my children. Move one child into the house and have their friends rent the other room(s) - child 2 continues to live at Uni for one more year. (Kids grew up in another country so Uni accommodation to help them get resettled back in Aus but price is exorbitant). This replaces current rent payments with morgage payments and gives me an asset.
This is based on expected property market falling around end if this year and the exchange rate also falling - both of which I think are good bets. I think the long term student accommodation will recover or raise slightly over time and the forex should work to my advantage if I borrow in local currency.
Option 2:
There are insurance products that if I stay a non tax resident for 10 more years anything I put into the product is tax free if I return to Australia.
Downside is I must commit to 10 years of a fixed amount per month and absorb any forex risk if I have to leave the country. If I stay in this country earning local $ this risk is abated somewhat but that is often at the will of the Government.
Option 3:
load what I can into an ETF
I think the markets will tank in the short term so would rather hold cash until early next year - I may miss a rally but I really cant see the economy picking up before then.
Option 4:
Selected stocks.
I work for a financial institution so I need to keep any stocks long term and need clearance for any trade. This makes this option difficult but possible if I dont do option 1.
submitted by AndrewTheAverage to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Forex Liquidity

Forex Liquidity
https://preview.redd.it/rypgfz12gry41.png?width=441&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7563d6cc39bc6508108cde450ffb13f91297e1d
Forex Solutions provides direct and single market access to all Forex liquidity venues. So, it allows your business to reach incomparable levels of technology, depths of liquidity, professional support, and speed of execution. In addition, full transparency and trading anonymity at ultra-competitive trading costs are also available.
Forex liquidity refers to a currency pair’s ability to be bought and sold without creating a major impact on its exchange rate. So, regarding a currency pair as having a high level of liquidity when it can be bought or sold easily. Moreover, there is a significant amount of trading activity for that pair.
Forex Liquidity deals free MT4/MT5 Bridge, setting up price streams, setting up markups, configuring trading instruments, seven classes of trading )instruments, single margin account and collator deposit. Moreover, it deals with the best A-Book solution, PrimeXM or OneZero GUI for a margin account, and aggregated liquidity from Forex.
  • Ability to create streams with different level of markups
  • Base currencies of the trading accounts denominated in any cryptocurrency
  • Cryptocurrencies, Forex, Metals, Commodities, Indices, and Stocks
  • Leverage up 1:3
  • Single margin account
  • No requotes
  • Deep liquidity
  • Tight spreads, ultra-fast execution
  • Professional education
We also offer high leverage, deep liquidity, regulated, and developed infrastructure that would lead to building a high-yield business in the investment and fintech industry. Forex Liquidity
submitted by forexsolutions to u/forexsolutions [link] [comments]

[Offer] Sign up for my Forex broker, deposit £150/€150 and receive £150/€150 from me AND profits from 5 actions.

Hey,
So I have a Forex offer. £/€150 minimum deposit. This goes to your own account that you are in full control off. I have NO access to it.
I'm looking for 15 members. I run a successful trading group and I wl give you free access to this service also.
What needs to happen.
  1. Message me for signup link
  2. Create account
  3. Verify with ID
  4. Deposit £/€150
  5. Confirm with me you have done this.
The final step is crucial for you to qualify. Once you have messaged me I will send you a link to join my chat group. In the group I will give you instructions on 5 trades to place. These should all make a profit.
After all 5 trades are placed you can witdraw the money you desposit, the profits you make and also recieve £/€150 directly from me via bank transfer or PayPal.
You can consider this paid research as I need numbers to prove concept.
Message me to get started.
Ttian.
submitted by Titan_Pallas to signupsforpay [link] [comments]

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL)


https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15
Download PDF of this article here: https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo
In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/

Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
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While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and) - Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
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Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
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The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.

North Sabah oil field
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Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl

Anasuria oil field
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Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.

Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
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Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
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From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).

Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
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From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
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Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
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Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED)
(a Anasuria Cluster)
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i Discount rate of 10%;)
(ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
(iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b North Sabah)
The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:

Our estimates Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves RM 1.452 billion RM 1.468 billion

Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
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Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
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This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
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Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020)
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).

Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
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The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY20 FY21 (incl. 2C) Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day) 8,626 14,400 +66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl) $68.57 $50 -27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD) $16.64 $20 +20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m) 632 630 -
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
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