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Welcome.Bet | Prediction Score, Live Scores, Sport Statistics

Welcome.Bet | Prediction Score, Live Scores, Sport Statistics submitted by welcomesport to u/welcomesport [link] [comments]

The home of eSports Betting. Bet pre-match and live in all currencies including Bitcoin and find a host of other information including news, previews, results, statistics and much more.

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Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores

submitted by AbelTalley to news [link] [comments]

Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores

Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores
http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/article/2/10504765/henrik-stenson-wins-the-open-championship-quotes-facts-and-statistics
Submitted July 17, 2016 at 10:41PM by AbelTalley - https://www.reddit.com/news/comments/4te83w/henrik\_stenson\_wins\_the\_open\_championship\_quotes/?utm\_source=ifttt
via /news - http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/article/2/10504765/henrik-stenson-wins-the-open-championship-quotes-facts-and-statistics
submitted by Laurelais-Hygeine to NoFilterNews [link] [comments]

Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores

Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores submitted by KellyfromLeedsUK to BreakingNews24hr [link] [comments]

Global Covid lockdown won't end - it's the new endless war like the "War on Terror"

The Powers That Be love what is happening as it benefits them in so many ways.
The isolation: People are being isolated from each other - friends, family, and everyone else. The only comforts that many have is their mobile phone or computer. The internet these devices are connected to are mostly being used in the heavily censored "public square" social media that was built originally by freedom loving individuals and free expression. (Facebook didn't become so big because of how it's run now, but because it let people do what they wanted to). It's TV MSM v2.0 for billions who don't use the internet beyond these gatekeeper platforms. Many young people have only had experience with in real life social interactions through school or collage and the internet is becoming an extension of those rules they have. It's conditioning that what happens in school, is real life; as the online world is now feeling like an extension of 2010+ era public school environments and rules. The fact we have so many people in their 20's that still act/think as they did in school is a startling reflection of this. They consume without any counter of creativity or critical thought, just as public school enforces.
Death of physical small businesses: Without even having to look up statistics, it's obvious that small businesses with dependent physical locations and patrons are hit the worst in the private sector and the Big Corporations with the reserves and bailouts are doing fine/better. With the results of further job losses in the private sector, more people are turning to Government jobs, Big Corporations (which at this point are unofficial extensions of the Government; lobbying alone speaks to that, plus regulations that prevent the little guy from ever competing with the big. Go ahead and try to start your own ISP) or...
UBI: People are now overwhelmingly supporting UBI due to the above and who can blame them? Nobody should lose their place of living or starve because of this nonsense. UBI acceptance is only further enabled because of limitations placed on places of charity (at least the few left that actually do something locally) that can't help anymore due to...
Prevention of gatherings of Spiritual and Religious Groups: This ties in with the isolation. For many, their local place of religious/spiritual worship was the only place they had fellowship and community bonding.
You're going to see lockdown continue due to "second wave" and so on, endless like the "War on Terror." The invisible enemy will never go away. The new waves will come from places such as rural and poor places where people suffer from malnutrition and are vulnerable to everything more so than healthy individuals who can afford to eat and supplement healthy items. Personally grew up in absolute poverty and didn't even know what an amino acid was or that raw honey was an excellent source of B vitamins that help your body and brain heal, before moving to a big city and proper health facilities. In the rural and poorer areas, medical facilities act like it's normal that people have muscle atrophy and constant body pains/migraines, etc. (many who have never lived or didn't grow up in these places are sheltered from this). Malnutrition is a slow genocide of the poor that hardly anyone talks about; and with Covid, it's being weaponized and politicized - "see those stupid people in the country are dying because they don't use masks. Don't question the fact they died because of bad health in general that resulted in that heart attack."
Individuality is being removed, tribalism accelerates over masks: Masks take away individuality to be a sea of half-faces. This has sprung into the creation of another dividing social war - teams of mask vs no mask. You better bet that it will be further politicized that "not wearing a mask is a Far-Right belief;" even though people from all political/a-political backgrounds have their individual views on the practice. In Washington state for example, it is now "illegal" for businesses to do business with anyone not wearing a mask. So we can't buy or sell without a mark, I mean mask (Christians will be flipping over this one, as the argument could be made that it's conditioning for the mark of the beast)?
The end of physical money: Physical money isn't clean so it is being denied at many places. Literal legal tender denied in favor of digital transactions and a push for the digital dollar. There are articles popping up now speaking how China is beating the USA in digital crypto adaptation and that we must have a digital dollar to keep up.
Why it's not further emphasized that kids of today are seeing all of this as normal. Anyone born in Gen Z (1996 to 2011) and Gen A (2011 to current) has little to no idea of what life was like pre-9/11, before all the massive changes such as public admittance of government spying domestically on citizens, NDAA, PATRIOT Act, TSA, DHS, etc. and authoritative tyranny has been all they have ever known. When the last of the Baby Boomers check out in the 2030's (the ones who helped enable/vote for the things that corrupted what we have today), only Gen-X, Elder Millennials and some beyond that will be able to remember what life was like before the internet, before all the oppressive big government/corporations and the laws/regulations that rule the land of today. They will become the new villians "of progress" and their "old ways/ideas" are going to be "holding us all back." Tim Pool (the former Vice Journalist) recently spoke about how he hasn't changed since 2013 as a Liberal and is now considered by some as "Right" because the Overton Window has shifted so much from the "Left" side (similarly and oddly, but perhaps not that odd, NeoCons are being considered acceptable because "they're not Trump." Politics have truly become Hollywood v2.0 after 2016 that both sides have been duped into). Because the young have no mentorship at home or from those older than them (they're either working too much and are too exhausted to or just don't care), the only mentor they have is the hive of approved speech/thought online. It has become a conditioning like never before seen with "you have to be like this and obey" conditioning from school to the digital public square - all being portrayed as "real life." No wonder kids of today think the internet is the same as real life - it's all they know; this is terrifying and even more terrifying is barely anyone speaks of this nightmare.
Edit: Typos
submitted by DMMDestroyer to C_S_T [link] [comments]

1,157 New COVID-19 Cases Reported Saturday

1,157 New COVID-19 Cases Reported Saturday submitted by WaywardSnow to southcarolina [link] [comments]

Confessions of a cheater (Not a Q&A - AMA)

To follow the guidelines, I will not be responding to any queries. This is just simply an unorthodox feedback from my perspective. [EU]

Hi,
Call me a loser, piece of shit or anything you want, I don't care, I won't go into depth because why I do it, and I won't continue playing this game so don't worry, but it might not be for the reason you think.I have been actively using ESP/Third party for 3 years on an EOD account, and I have never been questioned, suspended or banned despite having a ludicrous KD/R or survival rate.
As of 02/07/2020 - I can with a hand on my heart say that there is a hacker in near -every- game you are playing right now, or atleast 8/10 of them. I have encountered all sorts, and they are only getting more aggressive. The current state of the hacks, from what I have seen, is that for the most part the public hacks only have functioning variations of ESP/Aimbot/Nobreath/Norecoil and Infinite Stamina. Teleporting loot is something i -rarely- encounter, even on labs, and I haven't seen a single flying person for a quite good few months.
Still, the game is just about worse than ever, and the huge player influx is partially to blame for that, naturally. I would like to state this again, as it should be broadcast as you enter the game, there is a cheater in near every single game you are playing. Even if you aren't killed. I often avoided players and allowed them to finish their raid, and only killed them if they were going for high-tier areas, were being nuisances (sniping, camping, e.g) or actively challenged me, as the obvious cheaters often do, even chasing after you across half the map only to farm your xp.
However, I myself find the game nearly unplayable now even with hacks, as silly as it sounds, due to aimbotters. The aimbot is usually unreliable if your target moves too quick, as it will often shoot slightly behind the thorax/head, especially on distances. The best bet is to fight a hacker is with flashbangs, grenades or to wallbanging them. Doing quick peeks will only get you killed most the time, but if you are compelled, use small gaps and openings to get a shot or two on the target and you will likely survive as the aimbot always aims at the dead center of either body part, not responding well to leans. I am sure other people who use software can confirm this if any doubt. If you were killed while hiding after kiting, camping or whatever it may be, chances are you just got farmed for XP by a wallhacker.
Please stop frequently denying the cheaters, some are very obvious, and some only get obvious once they meet an equally skilled or better opponent. I always test my targets before engaging them, and they often respond with communication through body movement through walls, or try to prefire you. It is near impossible to identify desync/lag with cheaters strafing and using aimbot/norecoil without any context or a full overview of the situation, so the video report format BSG currently is using is -highly- inefficient, and likely has innocent players banned even today.
I can vouch that the RMT countermeasures have greatly punished sellers and cheaters alike. I used to sell roubles to fund my cheats, and now it is incredibly much harder to do so, and have become too tedious of a process to go through with. Well done BSG.
I would consider myself a veteran cheater, a dirty stain on the community, but I am still talking from experience and thousands of hours in the game. I don't advocate the use of cheats, and I would strongly recommend playing without as they will taint the charm of the game, making it bland, boring and a money sink, as you won't be able to quit playing without it. What I wish to gain out of this is more awareness to the issue, I would love to play the game without cheats, but I will not touch the game as of right now, knowing the current situation myself.
I cannot for the sake of my life understand why there isn't a review team monitoring people who get 25-30 kills in 3/5 raids, or match playtime/account date with stats to potentially flag some accounts for review. In the foreseeable future, avoid labs, reserve, customs dorms, woods sawmill, interchange kiba and shoreline apartments if you want clean games. It is hard to identify the hackers, some go for your loot, some go for your XP and kill you regardless, some avoid you and farm high tier then extract. I have met them all.
Edit;
As a final addition; I would like to add on the unhealthy amount of gate-keeping the community has. Sure, we do want new players to join and enjoy the game. You can easily be oblivious to these things happening and have it pass as regular occurrences without suspicion in the first 60 hours or so, but people will catch on, make a post here and posts will be the same endless cycle. I am not fishing for karma, hence using a brand new account.
It is incredibly difficult to identify foul play without third party software, unless you know what you are looking for. While having a 3D representation of every entity in the game, every raid, every day, for such a long time, you can identify these as easy as you can identify colors. I do not possess statistics or footage of this, due to having a low-end system. I can definitely say at least 7-8/10 raids I play, have someone using some variation of illegal third party software.
If BSG introduces some sort of new countermeasures in the near future to combat cheaters as a result of growing attention to the issue, I will present my profile with stats. I am responsible for -thousands- of illegitimate kills. To put it in a better perspective, I can easily get 20-30 kills during a full reserve match, 25*100 raids is 2500 kills. AI included. My all-time total is likely staggeringly higher than that. If I were from a 3rd world country, I could easily live on the profits of selling the roubles alone, while funding my cheats.
https://imgur.com/a/3RCpgW8
submitted by Neqrnod to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

/r/ActualPublicFreakouts needs to be put on the watch-list. spez and Reddit Admins beware.

Black Lives Matter and police brutality posts have finally started cooling off of the front page. I'm not sure if this is because protests are slowing down, or if it's just not the popular media item to share anymore.
They're unfortunately being replaced with black-on-white crime videos, supposedly being provided as counter-evidence to BLM, whose threads all seem to follow the exact same script:
I'm all for everyone's voices being heard, but /ActualPublicFreakouts is quickly (and I mean fast like this week) becoming a haven for racists. spez recently announced a commitment to responding more quickly to racist subs, rather than waiting. This is a good time for the Reddit administrative team to think about intervening and discussing a path forward with mods.
The vast majority of videos being posted now are being posted without context. The vast majority are fight-porn and violence-porn with a clear bias toward neo/ultra-conservative, anti-BLM points of view.
80%+ of the comments are either outright racist or thinly veiled racism, assuming "thug culture" or even delving into "statistics" on black folks and non-white crime. These are all within the last week, most actually within the past few days:
https://www.reddit.com/ActualPublicFreakouts/comments/hbgarh/another_old_man_assaulted_in_a_grocery_store/ (older white man attacked by black man at store - no context)
https://www.reddit.com/ActualPublicFreakouts/comments/hb4v1x/drunk_man_assault_and_shoot_at_police_during_a/ (black man shoots at police officers - old story, no context provided - timing is eerily close to charges being pressed against officer who shot and killed Rayshard Brooks)
https://www.reddit.com/ActualPublicFreakouts/comments/hb3tdy/racist_inbred_boomer_gets_slapped/ (counter-example, but not even 1/10th of the upvotes as the "black man bad!" posts)
https://www.reddit.com/ActualPublicFreakouts/comments/haqwzj/unarmed_man_in_texas_easy_frag/ (white man attacked leaving gas station by group of black teens - same comments narrative)
https://www.reddit.com/ActualPublicFreakouts/comments/ha1qwv/melbourne_girl_punched_in_the_subway_for_reasons/ (white girl in Australia assaulted by what appear to be black / african folks - no context provided in video)
https://www.reddit.com/ActualPublicFreakouts/comments/h8nrcg/mob_of_chaz_residents_call_black_man_a_race/fus1i7m/ (and then there's highly awarded and upvoted "statistics" on black on black crimes, even in circumstances where being upset about the context could be justfied)
Sure, there are counter-examples. There were also plenty of people subscribed to /ActualPublicFreakouts and /PublicFreakouts before the protests situation blew up recently.
In my honest opinion, hate-porn, violence-porn, and fight-porn subreddits should be quarantined or banned. Bringing light to crimes currently happening that have important political context is important.
Bringing light to crimes completely out of context, often videos without any additional context, that are sometimes years old, just so people can yell "See?! Black people bad!" is not important. It serves only to derail important discussions and foster a circle-jerk community of hate.
Address this now with the mods and community before it does the inevitable and gets out of hand. If past trends are to be followed, protests will calm down, and news will eventually stop talking about BLM... But a hate sub will continue posting hateful things out of context and getting it on the front page as frequently as they can.
EDIT: Mr Prolix has taken aggressive action against several threads / posts mentioned. More could and should be done, and I think it's worth continued monitoring - at the very least for the alt-right invasion the sub has suffered. Moderation needs to be more proactive and aggressive. AutoMod bots will hopefully help, but the hammer needs to fall harder. aRVAthrowaway seems more defensive and lenient about the sub's content, and seems to disappear when specific racist content is brought to their attention. Another user claiming to be an (unconfirmed) mod does as well.
submitted by thefuckouttaherelol to AgainstHateSubreddits [link] [comments]

The Spaaaaaaaaaa.......... v2.0

With the Saratoga season quickly approaching, I’ve had my arm twisted enough by the Discord team to revise my primer from last year. I live about 20-minutes east of Saratoga and it’s my home track; my first real memory of a horse race was betting on Forty Niner in the ’88 Travers……I was 6…… During the 40-day meet, I do most of my wagering for the year and consistently show a nice positive ROI.
What is Saratoga: The Saratoga Racecourse is the oldest continually operating sporting venue in the United States. The town of Saratoga was founded around dozens of natural mineral springs which were turned into bath houses at the end of the 19th Century. Those fighting conditions like Polio sought out the healing properties of the springs; FDR was a regular visitor. The town is about a 3-hour drive north of NYC, so it’s a major summer retreat for those looking to escape. During most of the year, Saratoga is a sleepy town of 25k; on a major race weekend that number will be 5x that.
Why is it Important: The 40-day long meet has 71 stakes with $14.45 million in purse, 39 of those being Graded. Most tracks best day of racing for the entire season is a regular Saratoga Thursday afternoon, the field size and quality here is just unmatched. The feature of the meet is the Travers stakes which this year is Derby Points earning but normally sees Triple Crown pointed horse gearing back up for a BC Campaign. Saratoga also sees a huge number of very talented maiden races where you will often see next year’s Triple Crown contenders get their start. Owners and Trainers want to show off their very best and a win at Saratoga means massive bragging rights for most. Due to its northern latitude and numerous training tracks, Saratoga is a massive training track that sees horse shippers from around the country even if they have no intent on running there. For the month of July and August, Saratoga really is the focus of all horse racing east of the Mississippi.
What you should know before going:
· With Covid, the track will NOT be accessible to spectators, even owners cannot get on the grounds. All vantage points have a police presence to keep away spectators. Your best option for viewing is sitting on your couch.
· Watch Talking Horses the morning of. Its on locally in Saratoga or you can watch on YouTube or with NYRA bets. While Andy Sterling can come off as a bit of a jerk (he is but I like him), he knows a lot about horses. However, he's always looking for a price and overemphasizes troubled trips, so keep that in mind. He does try to beat some really tough horses. Either way him and his associate will give you great background for all the races of the day with replays.
Angles to Consider:
· Having good friends is a massive benefit here. Fields are deep and competitive, so having a 2nd or 3rd set of eyes looking at PP’s is huge. A group of us Handicap a couple of days before each card, so hop on Discord and go through the races as a team, it will substantially boost your ROI.
· Saratoga is the land of Maidens, so Workout Reports are key. All the major east coast trainers will bring the best of their best 2yr old’s to Saratoga as winning a race there is massive. The only true way to gauge these horses is with workout reports. Always remember that PP’s are rearward biased; you care about the horse today, not when it last ran a month ago. Due to the time of the Saratoga meet, it’s very common to have improving 2 or 3yr old’s take a massive step up here.
· Best way to make money at Saratoga is to pay attention to track biases and to make out your own odds. Track tends to be very speed favoring one day and then it’s all closers the next; watch not just what horse is winning but how and adjust accordingly. Saratoga also sees a lot of "dead money", people with no clue who are betting names, colors, jockeys, trainers...etc. These people LOVE to chase favorites and they are very often overlay’s more here than any place else in the country. If you handicap with no ML and have a horse's fair value at 3-1 its often common to see it drift to 10-1 because a Pletcher firster is 1-9 when it should also be 3-1.... etc....
· Saratoga is also the land of crazy weather. It’s not abnormal to have half the card be 80 and Sunny then a pop-up Thunderstorm rolls through and you have mud with off-turf. The public has no ideas how to manage this and will still bet a turf horse who hates running on the dirt. This leads to some massive overlay’s if you’re prepared.
· Although the bias was much less pronounced last year than most, on all three tracks between 5 and 6.5f you want to fade the inside path. This is partially due to those distances seeing younger horses, but also due to the shape of the inner rail entering the far turn. Also watch for a dead rail that plagued the track for the first few weeks last year until it was re-graded which made it less pronounced.
· Fade horses in the 8 path and beyond in 2-turn routes, they have terrible statistics even when accounting for field size. The most problematic races are 1 mile on the Mellon turf where early positional speed is huge. 9 & 10f races on the main track also favor the inside as a shorter runup into the first turn can leave outside horses stranded.
· Jose Ortiz won the 2019 Jockey title, but it’s always super competitive. Saratoga has one of the best jockey colonies in the country but take note of big names taking choice. If you saw that JJ was on three horses last out but choose one of those this time over the others, it’s likely that horse is very live…. etc.
· Chad Brown also dominate the Trainer title in 2019, with it not even being a contest. His entire barn points for the meet so if it’s a CB horse, its live, just deal with it.
· With all the CB love at Saratoga, certain trainers also have TERRIBLE statistics and should be faded or avoided. Those trainers who have solid numbers of starters and do well at other tracks but suck at SAR are: Amoss, Arnold, Keneally, McPeek, Moquette, Rivelli, Romans, Stall, Stewart and Wilkes. You’ll notice a KY trend there; yes, it is real….
· Pay attention to “well meant shippers” meaning oddball ships and weird drops. Look for horses coming out of smaller tracks like a Penn, FL, GP West, OP... etc... who are trained by small time trainers who have limited starts. Betting public tends to feel a lot more comfortable backing a Pletcher horse than a guy who sees 25 starts a year from a 5-horse stable. You'll often see a horse who ran in a couple MSW races at a Penn for say 12k, took a two month break with little work pattern, then shows up at Saratoga in an MCL 32k and wins. Also, huge class drops are less of a concern at Saratoga as traineowner title are so important, hell just winning a race is huge so often people will be OK being claimed away to say, "My horse won at Saratoga". You also tend to see a lot of horses who have one or two not very impressive starts, go on the bench for a month or two and then appear at Saratoga and win from a no-name trainer and connections, things often don't pass the sniff test and are often live in doing so.
Some of the Reddit/Discord group will also be doing a daily Saratoga focused show with information on our impressions from the day along with what to look out for tomorrow which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/onthewronglead
submitted by pakratt99 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Cata's Ultimate Guide to Being a SINoALICE Noob Version 1.2

EDIT: Thanks for gifting me gold! I would have thanked whoever did that sooner, but I don't use Reddit much so I had no idea I even got it. I would update this post too with Version 1.31, but my post is actually beyond the Reddit character capacity. If you want to look at the updated guide which includes even more beginner questions, it is located at https://pastebin.com/wUz0G8cQ .
My name is Cata. Like you, I am a new player (I started playing this game yesterday). I understand you have a lot of questions. I'm here to share what I've learned.

Gacha

Q) Should I roll the gacha?
A) Not unless you're a whale. The weapons we have available right now aren't that great. Don't let me stop you from rolling for waifu, though (if you were going to do that, I would perhaps recommend just re-rolling for her, though).

Q) WHEN NIER
A) July 16th

Q) GIB TIER LIST SO KNOW WUT DO
A) https://xant.netlify.app/tierlist.html

Q) REROLL?
A) You don't need to, but if you really insist, then go for classes. 1-2 classes would be a good start. Why? Look at the next section! If you know what class you want to play, try to get a few SR weapons that are your classes specialized use.

Q) The gacha is where I get new weapons, right?
A) Yes. Events may also give them out occasionally.

Classes

Q) What is class mastery?
A) Click on the upgrade/sell button at the bottom of your screen, then click on upgrade classes. You'll see all your classes. There are two types of class mastery; one is common, the other is specific to the class. Common buffs go to everyone, class buffs go specifically to the UPGRADED class, not all classes of that type.

Q) So, getting a lot of jobs for those permanent stats would be a good thing, right?
A) Absolutely! Every job you get is permanent stat additions to your unit once leveled. You can powercreep weapons, but permanent stats will always be useful.

Q) Should I use those books the game gave me?
A) Yes, there's no reason not to use the books immediately.

Q) How should I be spending my SP?
A) Keeping in mind that we have common mastery bonuses (which are global boosts to stats) and class mastery bonuses (which are associated only with the class you leveled), your first move should be to max the class that you're currently using. Then, you should spread the rest of your SP evenly to the rest of your classes to pick up common mastery bonuses, prioritizing stats that are useful to your class first and firemost.

Q) How do I know what class to choose?
A) Right now, you don't. You don't have the resources to make that sort of decision. Just play around with what you have and see what you like. Maybe do some research on the game and see how they play?

Q) Are some classes better than others?
A) With the exception of Mage, which is fine in PvE but not good in Colosseum, all classes are important and useful. Later on, the main distinction between classes is going to be available specialized weapon pool, but that's not a matter of better or worse, that's a matter of available options.

Q) What does my classes specialized weapon do?
A) It buffs everything the class does with that weapon. A Cleric will heal more with staves, a Minstrel will buff with instruments better, a Sorcerer will debuff better with tomes, that kind of thing.

Q) How does healing work?
A) Your healing power scales based off your DEF + MDEF.

Q) How do debuffs and buffs work?
A) Debuffs and buffs scale off of the stat that they are buffing. An example is buffing physical defense would scale off your character's physical defense.

Q) Which DPS are physical based?
A) Crusher (Hammers), Breaker (Swords)

Q) Which DPS are magical based?
A) Gunner (Bows), Paladin (Polearms)

Q) So what's up with the support classes, then?
A) Cleric: Healing (uses Staves)
Sorceror: Debuffs (uses Tomes)
Minstrel: Buffs (uses Instruments)
Mage: Damage (uses Orbs)

Q) Say I have a Red Riding Hood/Cleric, and an Alice/Cleric. Which one should I use?
A) The only thing that would possibly make a difference here is if you had one of them leveled and the other wasn't, because the leveled one would have the class-specific mastery bonuses. Otherwise, there is currently no difference in gameplay (just waifu differences).

Q) How do I limit break classes?
A) You need a rare resource known as an Arcana. For story classes, Arcana is distributed freely through things like missions, medal exchanges and event shops. For event classes, you'll get Arcana through the event medal shop or just playing the event. For gacha, you have to do 50 rolls on the banner, then you can exchange for an Arcana with the medals you got from doing so.

Q) How many Arcanas do I need to max Limit Break them?
A) Currently, just one. Later, you may need more.

Gear

Q) So what do weapons do?
A) Weapons have a skill associated with them. In combat, using the weapon will use the associated skill. It ranges from support effects like buffs, debuffs and healing to just normal damage dealt to the enemy. Weapons have an elemental affinity of Fire, Water or Wind. On top of that, weapons just generally increase your stats.

Q) What is the affinity triangle?
A) Fire > Wind > Ice > Fire
In other words, that means Fire beats Wind, but gets beaten by Ice. Wind beats Ice, but gets beaten by Fire. Ice beats Fire, but gets beaten by Wind.

Q) Should I buy the starter 150 gem weapon packs?
A) Yes. You will need them to get stronger and push more content. You don't need to buy multiples; you can't equip the same weapon twice in a grid. If you're not sure what role you'd like to play, then buy both and experiment with different classes.

Q) What's the difference between the Vanguard and the Rearguard packs?
A) The Vanguard packs are for DPS classes such as Crusher, Gunner, Paladin and Breaker. The Rearguard packs are for support classes such as Sorceror, Mage, Cleric and Minstrel. The distinction between these classes is important for Colosseum content. The vanguard is constructed of 5 people in the front, who are your DPS roles, while the rearguard is constructed of 10 people in the back, who are your support roles. The rearguard also has a 90% damage penalty; this is why Mages aren't so great in the Colosseum, as their specialized weapon type is DPS based.

Q) Should I use less weapons in my grid for better rotations?
A) Absolutely not, because weapons give you stats, and if you do that then you won't be hitting very hard. Plus, reloading your deck costs 20 SP. It's better to do that less frequently so you can spend more SP on attacking or supporting.

Q) What kind of weapons should I be using? Are A weapons okay? What about S?
A) A weapons are not a good long-term investment, and are not recommended. S weapons are good filler for now. Ideally, your class should be using all SR and S of their specialized weapon, but right now you probably don't have enough stuff to even fill your grid. Just use the recommended button!

Q) So, just level S and SR weapons that my main class can use for now, right?
A) Yes! Even if they're not your specialized weapon, they'll still give you stats that will be helpful for pushing content.

Q) What is weapon cost?
A) Each weapon has a cost, depending on its rarity. The higher the rarity, the higher the cost. Your cost raises with levels.

Q) What is the sub-grid?
A) The sub-grid will accept any gear and give you 10% of the gears stats. You can just use the recommended button here. You can find the sub-grid button next to the recommended button, incidentally.

Q) If I have two of the same weapons, can I equip one in my grid and one in my sub-grid?
A) No.

Q) So, the weapon gives me stats...but what about leveling the weapon? Does that increase the damage the weapon does?
A) Leveling the weapon will increase your attack stats, which will indirectly make you deal more damage, but it won't increase the damage of the weapon itself. For example, two weapons with the same skill would deal the exact same damage even if one was level 1 and the other was level 60. Otherwise, damage is affected by skill levels on the weapon and the elemental affinity of the enemy.

Q) How do I level weapon skills?
A) You feed either weapons or gems to the weapon as experience. This is a precious commodity, and currently the weapons available in the game are not so good, so it's recommended that you save them for now. A further note is there is a mission available for limit breaking weapons, so before you use weapons as fodder, you should limit break them!~

Q) How do I get L rarity weapons?
A) Evolve SR weapons. Keep in mind that it will reset the weapon's level to one, so you shouldn't do this unless you have enough EXP to get it to a comparable point (this point is around level 40).

Q) Where do I get the stuff to evolve weapons and armor?
A) Click on Story, then click on Event. You'll see the place where you can farm said resources. Higher is better. https://sinoalice.game-db.tw/timer There's a schedule; depending on whether the item is red, blue, or green, that's what evolution materials you'll need. Keep in mind that later events are going to have a lot of these resources, so you should save your AP and tickets for grinding those instead of grinding your dailies, but if you have some excess stamina to spend right now, here's where you should be doing it.

Q) Should I limit break my gear before I evolve it?
A) Let's say that your weapon is level 59, and you feed it an A EXP item. You may waste some of the EXP going over the cap. However, if you evolved your gear first, then it would push the threshold later, and as such as you may save some experience doing so. You can also try to be careful about over-feeding experience by using different rarities of EXP. All that said, there is no difference between limit breaking and evolving or evolving then limit breaking otherwise.

Q) Where do I find new armor? Should I level it? What about evolving it?
A) Currently, you can't. If you want to level your B armor, it will give you some additional power to help you push content and it's not that expensive to do so. Evolving it is NOT recommended. Later on, there will be armor events, and that's where you're going to get new and better armor from.

Q) What nightmares should I be using?
A) Just use whatever you have.

Q) Can I combo nightmares together?
A) You may not use a nightmare while a nightmare is currently active.

Gameplay

Q) What's this purification thing I can do infinitely?
A) Purification gives you experience per enemy killed, as well as AP. At the start, you have no limit, but after rank 20, you will no longer be able to do it infinitely; instead you will be able to do it once every 8 hours (4 hours with Royal User Service). At the start, there is no point in spamming it, you should use it only when you run out of AP.

Q) What should I be doing as I'm leveling?
A) Spend AP in the Event realm, as the Event realm has chapters with a lower EXP to AP ratio. Once you're out of AP, you can go to Purification to get more AP. Rinse and repeat. This is the basic gameplay loop of SINoALICE, and it's one you should adhere to if you want to be efficient.

Q) Why am I burning my AP?
A) There is a cap to how much AP you can have; you can only have two times your AP's limit. So, if you level up while you're near that cap, you wasted AP. Spending stamina like this ensures minimal waste.

Q) Game is hard, how to win?
A) Upgrade your gear and upgrade your classes. Play manually, since the AI is not that efficient. Use nightmare summons to aid you. Get a friend to carry you.

Q) How should I progress through the story?
A) Picking up all the jobs (for the aforementioned reasons of class mastery bonuses) is a good bet, but it doesn't matter that much in the end. Just play how you'd like.

Q) What are guerilla events?
A) Guerilla events are where you farm EXP for your gear. They run on limited time-slots throughout the day, so make sure you get a chance to hit them up! Here's a schedule: https://sinoalice.game-db.tw/timer

Q) To get story participation rewards, must I use the associated character?
A) The only thing the associated character matters for is a statistical boost within the node, plus bonus missions may require you to use the associated character.

Q) What are my priorities for the event currency?
A) This is somewhat opinion based, and it depends on how much you're going to play, too. Getting the EXP and the evolution materials to boost your power may help you do later nodes in the event faster, which is worthwhile. The most valuable things are the skill gems, the crystals, and the level 4 evolution materials. Picking up the 100 medal S Nightmare is also worthwhile for more stats.

Q) What's up with those story participation rewards in the event?
A) For each time you clear the event node, you get a "checkmark". As such, you need to clear each node 6 times to get full story participation rewards, and yes it's worth the AP.

Q) Do guilds have a cooldown between leaving and joining them? How does this work with regards to Colosseum?
A) There is no cooldown for leaving guilds. There is a reset-based timer for being able to participate in Colosseum after joining and leaving a guild. If you leave your guild right after doing Colosseum for your starter mission, you should be fine as long as you quickly join another guild after that.

Q) What is the rate of AP refill?
A) You get 1 point of AP every 3 minutes.

Q) Are there any bonuses for co-op?
A) Just getting carried, and there's a few missions associated with doing co-op as well for crystals. You also get friend medals.

Q) How do friend medals work?
A) You can get 3 friend medals a day by co-oping live. They must be following you and you must be following them, or they must be in your guild. You can go to Story then Co-op Battle to find these faster if you wish.

Q) Should I buy the crystals with friend medals?
A) Absolutely, and you should buy it every day. The excess, just save for now.

Q) What does rating correspond to?
A) Roughly speaking, 1 rating = 1000 combat power.

Q) Do critical hits exist?
A) No.

Spending Money

Q) What's worth it?
A) The best value is the Library Wisp pack, as it gives you a very good Nightmare. The Royal User Service pack gives you Purifications every 4 hours instead of 8, which is huge gains in stamina for people that are actively playing. It also gives you medals that you can exchange for useful things like SR Nightmares. Other than that, the paid classes are always a great value; you can't go wrong with permanent stats. That said, Red Riding Hood/Cleric is on the weaker end of paid classes in terms of bonus stats, so if you're a conscientious spender, you may want to wait for later paid classes. The 150 gems Beginner pack is also a good value.

Feel free to ping cataclysmical#2221 on discord for further questions and suggestions on what to add.

For live updates as I gather more information and answer more questions, here's the pastebin I work from. What's posted here is just the current version of the guide. https://pastebin.com/wUz0G8cQ
submitted by DapperDeal to SINoALICE_en [link] [comments]

First Contact - TOTAL WAR - 217 (Foxtrot-Nine-Two)

[first] [prev] [Last Night Terror] [SOMEONE PLEASE WAKE ME UP!] [next]
The multi-role strike hovercraft slipped through the air, dropping altitude quickly. The intact ships of the squadron were smoking, over half of them the battle-screens were down and the particle screens were so overloaded they were flickering and snarling.
Mukstet, pilot of Foxtrot-Niner-Two, lead striker of the squadron due to their unorthodox launch, looked around, the window shields covering the smart-armaglass retracted. The trees were whipping by and so far there hadn't been any Precursors popping up on the sensors.
That could be because our sensors are hashed, he thought to himself. He saw a faint glimmer of sparkling blue and did a slow bank toward it.
The controls were mushy, slow to respond. The two fifty-gallon reactor mass tanks were empty, used to power the afterburners, which meant his fusion reactor was offline. He was running on the auxilary zero-point reactors now and they barely had the power to keep the ship in the air. They were at over 80% heat, which left the alarms pinging in his ear. The hotter they got the higher the impedance and the less power the reactors produced due to the power being converted to heat.
It was a vicious self-sustaining cycle.
Terrans have been able to beat everything but heat, Mukstet thought, dropping his altitude even further. He was barely skimming above the tree-tops now. He glanced around him, doing a visual on the other striker craft. Four of them were streaming smoke, one white, one bluish, the other two black smoke pouring from where the weapon covers had torn free. A glance at the squadron icons showed him that of the twenty strikers besides his all of them were yellow or amber.
"973, can you do field repairs?" he asked over the link.
--need time and mass nano-forges too hot too slushy slushy-- the green mantid sent back along with a picture of a half-dozen green mantids standing on the lid of a top loading clothes washing machine with bubbles pouring out from the edges of the lid. The caption read "C17H35COONa/H2O!!!!!" Mukstet didn't get it completely but he got the gist.
The blue glimmer came out to be a large lake surrounded by manicured lawns, decorative tree groves, shrubs, and estates for Lanaktallan. There were wrecking equipment near the manors and over half of them were in the middle of being demolished.
"All Foxtrot-Niner elements, all strikers on me, we're going land near the lake and do field repairs," Mukstet said. "All dismount strike team leaderss give me a status report on your dismount teams once we're on the ground. Have your green buddies reconfigure your suits for intra-atmospheric combat. My appreciation to your green buddies for keeping everyone alive during our insertion."
Blinks came back from the squad leaders.
"Foxtrot-Niner-Two, this is Foxtrot-Niner-Twelve, my center-line gravitons are out and my zero-point heat is at 92% and rising. Tell me we're setting down soon," came Dulketit's voice.
"Five mikes, that's it, just five mikes, Foxtrot-Niner-Twelve," Mukstet said. "All squadron strikers, drop speed to two-hundred kay."
The icons blinked and Mukstet went back to keeping his battered striker in the air.
He managed to get his landing gear deployed and set down on what was obviously a manor's ornate back lawn. The striker hovercraft settled down slowly, bumping, and Mukstet killed the power. The vehicle made a whining sound that slowly went silent. The other twenty striker craft settled down on the lawn, not quite dress right dress but close enough.
Foxtrot-Nine-Seven and Foxtrot-Nine-Eighteen both had fires erupt. Black armored troops jumped out with fire extinquishers, hosing down the fires with white powder.
"How's she look?" Mukstet asked his mantids.
--couple hours need mass good to stop at water you run hoses-- 973 sent back with an image of armored Telkan wrestling umbilicals from the lake to the strikers.
"All right. How's the engineers? You all make it?" Mukstet asked.
--some injured two lost legs three lost bladearms be okie okie-- 973 transmitted back with a sweating smiley face.
"All right. Make sure they get first aid," Mukstet said. He reached down and popped the umbilical connecting him to Jekib. He turned on the system, feeling cool air flood in. He hadn't realized how overheated he'd gotten during the insertion. He undid his five-point harness and hit the release stud for his neural jack connector.
It felt weird being disconnected from the striker. Light he was lighter somehow. Aches and pains vanished for a second to be replaced by other aches and pains. His shoulders, elbows, wrists, and fingers hurt from the vibration through the stick and how tightly he'd gripped everything.
He closed his eyes, just like he'd been trained to, and took several deep breaths, giving his brain time to synch back up to his body. A count of five, opening and closing his hands each count, and then he opened his eyes again. He reached out and hit the stud on the side to open up the cock-pit side door.
Air rolled over him, smelling of water and alien green things. He could see the dismount strikers spreading out at the pointed directions of Sergeant Kuplo. Some of the scouts were running for the construction equipment, others were opening up panels on the striker craft and pulling out hoses, still others were kneeling down while a handful of troops with the red cross, red crescent, and red square of medical personnel were checking their armor's statistics.
The next two hours passed with a blur. Pulling the hoses out to refill the reactor mass with filtered water, the debris caught by the filters passed to the nano-forges, the greenies making repairs as rapidly as possible. Telkan Marines helped put mass into the hoppers for the nano-forges to tear apart once the creation engines had cooled down and deslushed.
"You get anyone yet?" Mukstet asked Kanpuk, his Technical Specialist operating the com-system.
"No. Tegket's working with the other EW guys to try to cut through the interference, but these Precusors are a lot better at jamming than the other ones," Kanpuk said. "So far we've heard some chatter, including a Telkan Marine Heavy Assault Battalion that got dropped into the wrong zone and are protecting a refugee center or ammo dump or something, as well as a couple of Terran Pacific Rim Class warmechs just jumping from the Boop and making landfall via impact."
Mukstet shook his head. They'd barely made it, he couldn't imagine dropping free fall to planet-side in a three hundred foot tall ten thousand ton mech. But then, those mech guys were a whole different breed of crazy. Mukstet's brother had tried out for the war-mech program and now was the pilot of a heavy assault class mech.
But then, he'd always been a little weird, even before the Terrans came.
"Keep me posted. Let me know if we find anyone that needs close air support once we get the strikers reconfigured for intra-atmosphere work and as much of the field repairs as we can do are done," Mukstet said. He'd opened the faceplate on his armored vac-rated flight suit and was enjoying the cool fresh air after all the hours sharing Jekib's air.
The Marine Scout armor used a laser to stimulate a small fungus to produce oxygen from CO2 and CO with enough efficency they could operate in total vacuum for months.
That was something that Mukstet had noticed. During comparisons to Lanaktallan equipment, he'd noticed that the Overseers had created all of their equipment under the assumption that everything would run perfectly. Terrans on the other hand, designed all their equipment as if the world was coming to end and whoever was using the equipment was in the worst possible conditions in the worst possible situation.
Which Mukstet was glad for now.
--refabbing ordnance-- 973 reported. --airframe repairs during wing repairs done--
Mukstet looked over and could see the green mantid engineers, in their hard-shell extreme environment armor moving off the wings of the strikers. They'd been forced to weld the wings in the open position to prevent an actuator failure from allowing the wings to slide into the retracted position. Now that they were ground-side the mantids had to cut the welds and smooth the armor again to allow the wings to deploy and shift properly.
"Everyone get something to eat. Sergeant Kuplo, make sure your men take shifts, eat, and get some water into them, that was a rough landing," Mukstet ordered.
"Yes, sir," the Scout Sergeant said. "You heard him, men. Squad leaders, take charge of your squads. Get with me in half an hour and I'll have guard rotations."
There was a click as Sergeant Kuplo switched to the leadership channel. "What's the ETA on the strikers being ready?"
Mukstet checked the chron display on his retinal link. "Eight hours for full repairs, two more to combat capable. We had to strip the ordnance to run the afterburners in vacuum."
"I'll assign shifts as if its eight hours then, sir," Sergeant Kuplo said.
"You know I'm just a Private First Class, right?" Mukstet said.
"You're striker a pilot and you're in charge of the squadron, that makes you 'sir', sir," Sergeant Kuplo said and then shut off the link to stop any more discussion.
Mukstet sighed and went back to overseeing the striker hovercraft being worked on. The weapons were all deployable, able to be rotated back up into the airframe to increase stealth then deployed when live fire time came.
One thing that Mukstet had noticed is that Terrans really liked kinetic weaponry. His striker had two six barrel rotating autocannons, two door guns, and an underbelly deployable cannon. Missile pods, sure, but he noted there wasn't any laser, plasma, or maser systems. All kinetic.
He wondered why that was as he moved around Striker Foxtrot-Niner-Fifteen, noting that the mantids were repairing the pilot side smartglass and had the armor off the nose to expose where they were working on the airframe.
He took a moment to admit to himself that he really really really wished the Terran pilots and dismount leaders had made it off the Boop. He didn't have any orders loaded up, the only scans of the planet were the ones he'd managed to get from orbit and on the way down, and he had no idea of who had even made it groundside and who hadn't.
He was glad to hear at least some of his fellow Telkans had made it groundside. Second Telkan was largely unblooded with the exception of the power armor guys and most of those were in the infantry units.
Mukstet had joined the Marines after fighting on the wall of Log Base Gamma on Telkan-2 for nearly a month, dressed in an armored vac-suit and running a massive rotary laser cannon. He'd never felt so helpless in his life as when he'd been on that wall. He'd swore he'd never feel that way again and signed up when the Telkan Marine recruiter had come through.
It was slowly getting dark, the pale sparks of the mantid engineers becoming brighter and brighter as time went on and the night got darker. He could see holograms springing up where the mantids clustered together and went to work.
--airframe repaired armor repaired ordnance almost done-- 973 reported. --software checks done combat capable but fragile fragile need two more hours--
"You've got it," Mukstet sighed. My first combat command and the entire squadron is grounded. At least I got them onto the ground.
Mukstet kept walking back and forth on the grass, his palm turned up so he could look at what little ground-side data they had. A BOLO almost four hundred miles out but Mukstet's trainers had all stressed that unless it was coming to your rescue or had requested you a trooper never had a reason to go into the hellfire of a BOLO's combat zone. Off to the east, roughly a hundred and fifty miles, the sensors had picked up heavy Precursor movement almost three hours ago but Mukstet had no idea where they were now. To the west there was heavy groundfire that they'd managed to avoid during their orbits.
The nearest population center was over a hundred miles away to the south, what had looked like a refining facility next to a lake with close packed barracks. Next closest one was two hundred miles to the north, a city from the looks of it.
Mukstet looked at the scans he'd managed to pull of the Precursor vehicles, comparing them to the ones loaded in his striker's IFF. After a little bit he walked over to where Sergeant Kuplo was standing, watching his men who were dug into the ruins of the half-demolished manors.
"Sir?" Sergeant Kuplo asked.
"Do you have your Precursor profiles loaded?" Mukstet asked.
"Yes, sir," the Sergeant said. "Same with the men."
Mukstet held his hand out, palm up, and showed the most common type of Precursor machine that was estimated to be over 5,000 tons. "You have this in your database?"
The Telkan NCO leaned forward, examining it. It had what looked like three snail shells side by side with massive tracks on either side, crawler legs on the side and in front and what looked like a set of jaws up front.
"No, sir. It doesn't match any of my profiles," Kuplo answered. "Where was this taken?"
"Over a thousand of them, from orbit. It's about two hundred meters long and twenty meters wide," Mukstet said. "I've seen something like it before, though."
"Where?" the NCO asked.
"Log Base Gamma, Second Telkan War," Mukstet said. "One large shell at the rear, and made of meat and chitin, but it definitely fits the look."
"You sure, sir?" Kuplo asked. "I was on Telisminia, we mostly had the big layered plate ones."
"I'm sure," Mukstet said. "Which means, these aren't the Precursors from the First Telkan War."
"All right, sir," Kuplo said, nodding slowly. "What's the plan?"
"Give me a few minutes, Sergeant," Mukstet said.
"I'll be over here, sir," the NCO said.
Mukstet walked away, looking at the different types of Precursor machines they'd spotted on the way in, as well as the vessels that they'd passed that had been fighting the Boop and other ships.
More flowing, more like they were patterned off of something living. Lots of mechanical tentacles and pinchers and crab/insect legs. They moved in groups, smaller ones around the big ones, the smallest ones riding on the bigger ones.
These aren't related to the ones from the first war, these are related to those things that came from outer space. Maybe the things made them somehow? Mukstet wondered. A terrible thought bubbled up.
Maybe something else made both?
He looked around. The field was good sized, large enough that all the strikers could be landed on it and then some room. The lake was important, if there was one thing the strikers were it was thirsty. There was plenty of debris to salvage to stuff in the hoppers, the trees on three sides would provide warning of anything large coming in.
I need to think of more than just now. I need to consider that we might not be able to regroup for several days. The strikers will need repair, reloading, remassed. Flight crews will need sleep and food, Musktet thought to himself, looking around.
He checked his armor's database and ran a search string for the terms he needed.
There were six field manuals detailing creation of an operations base. He stood by the lake, looking at the 3D wire-frames, reading the manuals quickly. There were some conflicting thoughts, some stuff that he didn't quite understand.
"Sergeant Kuplo, join me if you would," he sent over the comlink.
"On my way, sir," the NCO said.
It took a few moments for the NCO to join him and he kept scanning the field manuals the whole time.
"You needed me, sir?" Kuplo asked.
"Our current situation is one we've only lightly trained for. I don't doubt we would have trained for it when we arrived here but right now we've got some problems," Mukstet said.
"Aye, sir," Kuplo answered.
"Right now we have no support base. The squadron is based off the Boop, and the Boop is gone. That means right now, all we'd be doing is flying in circles squawking 'DOES ANYONE NEED HELP?' like jumping lizards with their heads cut off," Mukstet said.
"True, sir," Kuplo said, nodding.
"Everyone landed under fire. We passed heavy ground fire repeatedly, which means III Corps and Second Telkan landed into the teeth of heavy fire. Right now, we have a secure area," Mukstet turned and motioned at the field. "We don't know how far we are from any front, but even if this isn't a strategic area for a strike base we can still start a logistics base right here."
"How so, sir?" Kuplo asked.
"Foxtrot-Two-Twenty-Two has bad airframe damage. It's combat capable under the current conditions but to be honest I wouldn't want to have the crew risk it," Mukstet said. "I'm saying we have one active wing at all times, doing recon patrols. Two wings on standby, one on repairs. We pull the nano-forges from Twenty-two, Seventeen, and Eight, and start fabricating the things we need to fabricate a strike base."
Mukstet turned and waved at the area. "We already have construction equipment. You told me that there was construction supplies, that it was obvious something was going to be built out here on top of the Lanaktallan estates that are being torn down. We construct an airfield, rearming point, remassing point. Establish an urgent care clinic, mess hall, and at least get some tents up for sleeping so you don't have to sleep in holes."
Kuplo nodded slowly.
"The Corpsmen on standby will run the urgent care clinic. We've already got wounded little brothers, so we pull the worst wounded to work on building the camp, take the strikers in with the teams we can put together," Mukstet said. He pinged the hasty file he'd put together over to the NCO.
Kuplo turned his hand up, looking at the proposed idea.
"Wish we had something bigger as far as nano-forges go, but the little brothers care capable of damn near miracles with the stuff we've got," Mukstet said. "Right now, we'll break into wing shifts, the ones on standby work on the striker base, one in the air, one grounded. Four wings of four strikers each."
Kuplo nodded. "It could work. Even if we have to abandon the base due to the front shifting or being reassigned another place, digging in is our best bet, at least till the commo channels clear up or we can get something on the command net."
"Let's get it done, Sergeant," Mukstet said.
"Ayut," the NCO said. He put his hand to his helmet to signal he was speaking to the dismount crews.
Mukstet stared at the night around him, made bright as day by the electronics in his suit.
-----------
"Foxtrot-Niner-Two, taking command of Foxtrot Wing One," Mukstet said, checking over his instruments. He knew he'd need to be careful of the port-side graviton generators, but it beat not having the striker up and running.
"Roger, Foxtrot-Niner-Two. You are green to begin mission," Pv2 Dektol, communications technician for the grounded Striker-Twenty-Two said over the headset.
"Establish link with us when you get that commo-antenna up," Mukstet said.
"Roger that, sir," the Pv2, only one rank below Mukstet, said into the mic. "Good luck."
Mukstet got the striker, fully loaded and with a compliment of dismount light scout Marines aboard, into the air. He started moving forward, the rest of the Wing-One following him, then banked to fly low over the lake.
Let's go see if we have any neighbors, Mukstet thought, tabbing up a piece of stimgum.
[first] [prev] [Last Night Terror] [SOMEONE PLEASE WAKE ME UP!] [next]
submitted by Ralts_Bloodthorne to HFY [link] [comments]

How the hell is one supposed to choose a career? Related: Please help me choose a career.

Hello, SSC. I am using a throwaway.
This is a beast of a post. A few thoughts related to its size:
  1. Sorry
  2. Please don't read the whole thing; it's skimmable.
  3. TL;DR – lawyer, doctor, psych researcher, or (jokingly, unless…) novelist?
To make a long story short, I'm an unhappy software engineer (unhappy with my career, not with life in general), and I committed about a year ago to making a change. Since that time, I've vacillated wildly in my thinking on the various career options available (never able to fully commit), and at this point it's causing me a ton of anxiety: I've gotta choose something, but there just doesn't seem to be a clear answer. My family and partner are running out of patience, and I feel the same way: It's time to get a move on, already.
"Getting a move on" is super fucking hard, though (not to mention terrifying, given the stakes). How are you supposed to compare, on the one hand, cognitive fit (i.e. being good at your job) with, on the other hand, likelihood of being able to pursue your own lines of inquiry or expression (i.e. not feeling like a cog)? Where does money fit into all of this?
The sheer number of different paradigms for career choice seems to be evidence that nobody else really has a clear idea either:
"Do what you love."
"Do what you like the most out of medicine, law, finance, and engineering."
"Work sucks: Make money and retire."
"Working for someone else sucks: Start a business or be your own boss."
Then there are the more complicated ones, like Ikagi, or the Waitbutwhy octopus, or 80,000 Hours' five-star system.
Every different paradigm comes up with a different answer, and the same paradigm often comes up with different answers depending on things that seem like they should not be able to shift paradigms, like what mood I happen to be in at the moment.
I do have some concrete things to work with, namely that I think I've been able to pinpoint why I don't like software engineering. Three main reasons:
1 - Lack of Cognitive Fit:
On pretty much every sort of standardized test thrown at me, there will invariably be a huge imbalance between subscores (verbal = higher, math = lower), with further cleavage between the mathematics subscores (numeric = higher, spatial = lower). This comports with my general "feeling" about these things: Reading and writing are easy and enjoyable; statistics is doable and tolerable; spatial math is difficult and unpleasant.
This has manifested itself in difficulties with software engineering, which is, after all, concerned with how best to build complicated, invisible structures. My in-the-major grades in school were mediocre at best (they were high outside of my major); my work performance is middling. The overall feeling of working in software engineering is that of wading through cerebral molasses, and at no time is this feeling more acute than when I'm working with other computer people: They just get it, and I just don't get it. With all due respect to grit, conscientiousness, growth mindset, etc., I often feel like I am simply running up against the limits of my mental machinery. All fine if it's worth the fight, but...
2 - Lack of Subject-Matter Interest
CS as an academic discipline is interesting enough, but it's never "grabbed me" in the way that some other academic disciplines have. I've never found my mind wandering towards topics in CS in the same way that it often wanders towards topics in, e.g., biology, psychology, economics, literature. I would never read a book on software engineering or computer science for fun.
Why the hell did you major in it, then, you stupid, dumb idiot?
I wish I had a better answer, but it was some combination of peer pressure (the cool, ambitious kids were ALL majoring in CS in 2011 (that may still be the case now, IDK)) and a desire to be employable.
3 - Lack of Workplace Autonomy
A product manager tells you to build the thing, so you build the thing. You (sometimes) get to choose how you build the thing, but if you don't have any underlying interest in how the thing is built, the whole experience just feels like drudgery.

_________

With all that in mind, I was able to build a pretty complicated paradigm that would take an entire post by itself to explain but basically boiled down to the following: Emphasize cognitive fit, subject-matter interest, workplace autonomy, and ability to do good, while trying as best you can to hold onto some of the positive features of software engineering (tons of stability, quite good pay, not-terrible working hours).
That got me down to four main possibilities. For the sake of simplifying the discussion, let's say that remaining a software engineer isn't an option. Here they are:
Law (JD):
On the one hand:
- Super high points for cognitive fit. Rules governing human behavior mediated entirely through the English language? Lots of reading and writing? Beautiful; give me more.
- The potential (if done in a certain way) to feel like you’re “fighting for the good guys.”
- For better or worse, I “vibe” with lawyers. Even the greedy ones tend to be "words people," because “money-driven” + “good with words, sucks at math” tends to equal “lawyer." I've never met, for example, another group of people who like crossword puzzles as much as I do.
On the other hand:
- Nearly every lawyer I’ve talked to says it’s straight-up difficult to get a job where you fight for the good guys and much easier to get a job where you’re fighting for the “neutral-at-best” guys.
- At the end of the day, I’m more interested in the law and less interested in being a practicing lawyer, mostly because of the same autonomy problem in software engineering: A higher-up tells you to do the thing, so you do the thing. In an ideal world, you solve the autonomy problem by, say, working at a think tank or in academia. But I’ve gotten that beaten out of my head by the chorus of voices saying, “Don’t go to law school if you don’t want to practice.”
- Long hours and a culture of overwork lead to high stress. Varies between firms (and between firms and government), but a work-hard-play-hard culture seem to pervade the profession, and, to put it bluntly, most of the lawyers I know seem pretty fucking stressed.
- When I tell lawyers that I’m considering law school, many of them say, “Don’t do it.” People in other fields don’t say that when I tell them I’m considering their field.

Medicine (MD) or Research Medicine (MD/PhD):
On the one hand:
- High level of interest in the subject material. I self-studied AP Bio back in the day by reading the textbook cover-to-cover. When I’m reading nonfiction for fun, there’s a pretty good chance it’s bio or medicine-related. To this day, I don’t really know why I didn’t study it in college. Network effects, probably.
- I could see myself being interested in practicing psychiatry, endocrinology, sleep medicine—any field where the emphasis is more “This strange concoction of chemicals makes you feel a certain way!” than it is “The machine that synthesizes urine broke down again.”
- I put “MD/PhD” because I find the idea of being a physician-scientist more appealing than one or the other. Being able to treat actual real people and then retreating to the lab to do solitary mind work really does sound like the best of both worlds. Either way, though, the process would start with a postbacc, so I guess technically I don’t have to decide yet.
- I did a thing where I downloaded the SSC dataset and looked at all the different careers, and doctors had the highest levels of life satisfaction out of anyone (for whom I could find a coherent career field in the spreadsheet). This held even when they were in school and residency (i.e. couldn’t be entirely explained by income (although it could, I suppose, be explained by “income or the expectation of future income”)). Two main ways I can think of to explain this: 1. Being a doctor is (relatively) fulfilling and makes people happy. 2. Becoming a doctor is so difficult that only (relatively) happy and well-balanced people are able to complete the process. This might sound naïve, but my honest bet is number one. In what other profession do you get paid SO MUCH MONEY to work so intimately with other people? So many high-enjoyability, low-pay professions (teaching, social work, etc.) are basically about taking a pay cuts so that you can work closely with other people. And in medicine you don’t have to take the pay cut.
On the other hand:
- Maybe there are doctors reading this and thinking, “You naïve little twerp; do you know how hard you have to work and how good you have to be to do what you’re talking about doing? Genetic research? Neuroscience? Start honing your colonoscopy skills, bucko, because you’re going to have to pay off your loans just like the rest of us.”
- On a related note, I know a lot of lawyers but no doctors, so I have heavy doses of “realism” from the law side, but not the medicine side.
- Med school, from what I understand, is the most demanding of the professional schools. I honestly can’t say for sure that I’d be able to get through it.
- While I like reading popular books about medicine, I don't really get off on academic papers about medicine. Maybe it’s just because I don’t know the lingo yet, or maybe it’s a warning sign that my interest in the field is going to turn out to be superficial.
- It would take a long time. Between postbacc, med school, (maybe) PhD, and residency, I’m looking at another decade before I make money again. Which is fine if I enjoy the process like I think I will. But if I don’t enjoy the process, it’s going to be a long ten years.
- Less reading and writing than I’d like, although that’s partially mitigated by doing an MD/PhD rather than just a PhD. I just really want a job where I get to read and write on the daily and the quality of the writing matters a good deal. “Just do that outside of your job!” Yeah, but in practice it’s hard.

Academia (PhD in Psychology):
On the one hand:
- I like sitting down at a desk, reading about things, thinking about things, doing what it takes to get the answer to something that’s been nagging at me, and then writing about the process of finding that answer. The fundamental idea that I could get paid to do something like that is still mindblowing to me.
- Checks ALL of the boxes that bugged me about software engineering: You have a degree of autonomy, and you presumably get to work in a field that you’re interested in and that you’re a good cognitive fit for. Law stumbles a bit in the autonomy department. Medicine stumbles a bit in the cognitive fit department. This baby don’t stumble.
- To test my enthusiasm for academia, I read as many research papers as I could get my hands on from as many different fields as I could get my hands on. The result? I enjoy reading research papers. I could see myself writing them. This is a good thing, as I understand it, for a career in academia.
- In terms of which disciplines “won” (greatest level of interest), three were head and shoulders above the rest: Psych, soc, and econ. I talked to some econ PhDs, and I honestly don’t think I have the mathematical acumen for it. Between (cognitive) psych and soc, neither of them has great career prospects, so it’s a wash there, and I’m slightly more interested in psych, so I might as well just do psych.
On the other hand:
- Due to mediocre undergraduate GPA and lack of research, I’ll probably have to do a masters or a postbacc first (time and $$)
- You gotta always be scrapping for grants and funding. Nobody likes scrapping.
- For better or worse, there is a distinct “good” outcome (tenure) that I might not achieve. I know that this is a really contentious topic, and I don’t mean to get anybody riled here, but yeah: I’m gonna be gunning really hard for the outcome that allows me to teach, do research, get paid well, and be difficult to fire. And I might not get it. And that’s extremely worrisome to me. “Making it” in academia, if you have the basic chops, is probably not as unlikely or fluky as, say, making it as an actor. But it’s still unlikely (depending on your field) and still fluky! You could get an advisor you end up not gelling with, and then you’re fucked. You could pursue a line of research that nobody really cares about, and then you’re fucked. (This is what people have told me, anyway). That’s all super scary to me, and it’s definitely an argument in favor of law or medicine, which have more of a “get the degree and collect your job” feel to them.
- Arduousness: Everyone says that it’s difficult and demanding and stressful and that you have to make sacrifices. I believe them. And, while I think I’m willing to make those sacrifices, it’s one matter to say that you’re willing and another matter to actually not drop out of the program when you really feel like dropping out.
- Covid-19 is currently in the process of upending higher education. It might be fine! But the next few years are a bit of an event horizon: We don’t really know what things are going to look like on the other side. In other words, more risk.

Writing (MFA):
On the one hand:
- A cool “wild card.”
- In the “You find out you have 5 years to live, what do you do?” thought experiment, I get an MFA and write a novel every time. Writing creatively is an activity that both hits a ton of neurons AND is somehow infused with meaning for me.
- It’d be super fun.
On the other hand:
- Risk. Risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Follow your dreams, they say. But what if my dream was to be a professional basketball player in the NBA? Should I follow that dream? To put it another way: I know that I’m a good writer, but it seems like you enter the realm of “luck not optional” when you’re seriously trying to make a living by writing books. I ballparked my odds of eventual success (defined as “I get to write without doing anything else on the side”) at 25% if I get into a top MFA program (which I probably won't anyway). That number is already scarily low to me, and it may well be generous.
- My past is littered with the carcasses of unfinished novels. I’ve managed to finish short stories, and I’ve managed to finish screenplays. The novel is the white whale. I think I could do it from within the structure of an MFA program, but who knows?
- If I don’t “make it” straight out of the MFA program, I’ll have to go back to doing something pay the bills, and that something will probably be software engineering. And then I’m back where I started: Doing software engineering for money while writing on the side. If I end up just “Doing X and writing on the side,” then I would have been better off spending my grad school golden ticket getting up to speed in an X—law, medicine, psychology—that I enjoy more than software engineering.
Where I'm at right now:
Trapped in a terrible cycle, pretty much. It goes like this:
I choose medicine, and a voice goes, “Really? Once again subjecting yourself to a career where reading and writing artfully isn’t really an integral part of the process? Doing ‘science,’ which we suspect you might not be great at doing? You should do law instead, where your mental machinery seems more suited to the process and the people seem more like ‘your people.’”
So I choose law, and a voice goes, “Really? Once again committing to a dynamic where you show up to the office and a superior throws a bunch of work at you and you do the work and go home without having pursued your own lines of inquiry or advanced human knowledge?” “I’ll be a professor,” I say. “No, you really won’t,” the voice says. “Think of all the unhappy lawyers who said they were going to be a professor or go into human rights or whatever. If you want to do research, you should get a PhD instead.”
So I choose a PhD (in psychology or sociology), and a voice goes, “Really? A non-econ social science given the state of academia right now? Do you really think there’s a nice tenure-track job waiting for you on the other side of this? If you’re gunning for the risky thing you might as well go all the way and do an MFA.”
So I choose an MFA, and a voice goes, “Really? And have to go back to software engineering in two years when you write a book and nobody gives a shit? Why subject yourself to that? If you’re going to write on the side, just be a doctor: It’s better than software engineering in terms of subject-matter interest and humanistic elements, but it offers similar stability and predictability.”
Then we’re back at doctor, and the cycle begins anew.
Since I listed pretty much every career option out there, I feel compelled to address some of the few that I left off my list.
FIRE: Just gut it out for ten more years and then retire! But the thing is, I like working—I like sitting at a desk, reading, writing, doing stuff—and I can think of nothing more enjoyable than embarking on one of the career paths that I listed above. So all I would get by FIRE-ing is more financial stability when I finally pursue one of them. WHICH AIN’T NOTHING. Believe me, I know. But I don’t think it’s worth the tradeoff of being miserable for another 10 years and starting round two close to age 40.
Become a Product Manager (PM): Okay, so you don’t like making pie. How about you supervise the people that make pie; wouldn’t that be more fun?
No, I just fucking hate pie.
***Further Wrinkles:***I applied to law school last cycle and got into a school just outside of the T14. Still on the waitlist for pretty much all of the T14 except HYS. I am what the kids call a “splitter” (high LSAT, low GPA), so I don’t have any expectations of getting into HYS, and if I do get into CCN it will probably be because Coronavirus fucks everything up and they have to let a bunch of people off the waitlist.
If I decide to not do law school this year (either because I decide to do something else or I decide that I can’t commit when I’m this unsure about things), I will be giving up something in-hand that I might not be able to get back. Which is scary.
A Final Miscellaneous Thingy:
Since I haven’t actually DONE any of this stuff yet, it would be cool if there were some sort of way to dip my toes into two of the options and see which I like better (the proof, as they say, is in the pudding). Something like a premed postbacc program that would allow you to volunteer in a psych or neuroscience lab. I don’t know if that’s a thing, though. Or maybe it is, but by doing it you just make yourself a weak candidate for BOTH med school and psych PhD programs.
Okay. Phew. If you’re still here, first of all, thank you, and second of all, sorry. Thoughts? Feel free to be super discouraging, too. “I’m a doctor, and every vibe you’re putting out says, ‘flunks out of med school.’” That’s information! That’s helpful!
Thank you again. God bless you, SSC.
Edit: Thank you all so much for your kind and thoughtful answers! Tapping out of the thread for a bit while I go eat and do work and that kinda stuff. Gonna look at and respond to all of these, though; I've just been kinda responding in a random order, but I'll get to 'em.
submitted by throe_aweigh_ to slatestarcodex [link] [comments]

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch


Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:
  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!


Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers


Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee


Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.


Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.


Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897


Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.


Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:
https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Nothing is more horrifying to an adventurer than a Rust Monster, its mere touch turning their weapons to rust - Lore & History

This week we bring forward a horrifying bug! This strange monster is known as the Rust Monster, and as you may have gathered from its name, it has something to do with rust.
For all the monsters that have come and gone, it’s a little surprising that this strange looking creature has traveled through time. It certainly hasn't existed this long because of its good looks, but from the unique ability to destroy metal. Finally, we have a monster that doesn’t want to eat your face off but rather is interested in what you wear. This roach-like creature doesn’t bother trying to hurt you, instead, it focuses on corroding your weapon while it’s still in your hand.
Like the Owlbear, the Rust Monster is one of the original monsters created by Gary Gygax. Inspired by a toy he picked up for his game since most miniatures were for armies and not horrifying monsters, he created a creature that could not physically hurt you, but the mental damage it inflicted was far worse. In an interview with Dragon magazine, Gygax tells of how he came up with the Rust Monster.
When I picked up a bag of plastic monsters made in Hong Kong at the local dime store to add to the sand table array … there was the figurine that looked rather like a lobster with a propeller on its tail … nothing very fearsome came to mind… Then inspiration struck me. It was a Rust Monster.
Dragon Magazine #88 (1984)

OD&D

No. Appearing: 1-2
Armor Class: 2
Move: 12”
Hit Dice: 5
% in Lair: Nil
No. of Attacks: 1
Damage/Attack: Special
Treasure: Nil
The Rust Monster was introduced in the Greyhawk Supplement (1974) and might be one of the more interesting monsters to be introduced in this edition. Not only is it more than just a typical monster that goes around murdering in a dungeon, but it also has a special way of dealing with adventurers that helps it stand out. We can only imagine the look of confusion at Gary Gygax’s table as he puts down his little toy Rust Monster and told everyone to roll their initiative… promptly followed by his uncontrollable giggling. They had no idea what was heading for them.
Unfortunately for the rest of the Dungeons & Dragons community that bought the supplement there is no picture to giggle at and there is no information describing exactly what the Rust Monster even looks like. The closest we get to a description is that it looks like an “inoffensive creature” and that it is very fast, which is not exactly inspiring horrifying images of a bug-thing trying to eat your metal bits.
An encounter with the Rust Monster probably looked very different from table to table back then, but the mechanics of this monster would be similar. A group of adventurers is wandering around a dungeon when they stumble across 1 to 2 inoffensive but fast creatures. They decide this is a good time to put that fancy new magical sword to the test and the fighter goes to stab at this inoffensive looking creature. The blade then disappears into rust as it hits the monster, then it’s the Rust Monsters turn who inoffensively attacks the fighter turning all of their plate armor into rust immediately. We now have a naked fighter sprinting back to the party screaming about how the Rust Monster is invincible and that the magic-user needs to destroy it with a fireball.
Before we talk about what makes the Rust Monster so special, let’s look at their more generic statistics and how they stack up. Their AC is surprisingly high, as an AC 2 is equivalent to that of an umber hulk and even to some dragons. Their described “fast-ness” gives them a movement rate that allows them to keep up with most characters, if not chase them down. For such an inoffensive looking creature they also have a decent amount of Hit Dice, so that’s just one more surprise the party is in store for them when the fireball clears and these creatures are charging you, smelling that delicious sweet iron.
What truly makes the Rust Monster special though is their only attack that simply relies on them touching you. Their touch simply turns your armor into rust, this could be a metal shield, a holy amulet, or even a powerful magical artifact. It doesn’t matter what it is so long as it has that delicious ferrous material in it, meaning anything with iron content. Of course, that’s not the only problem when dealing with these annoying monsters. If you try to beat them away with your sword, your weapon turns to rust upon touching them, it doesn’t matter if it is magical or not.
All you are doing by using your iron weapons against a Rust Monster is simply feeding them. These creatures feed on the rust that was once a family heirloom passed down countless generations… Also, they can smell any iron-based metals and are attracted to it, so you might know to avoid them all the while they are specifically running after you, hungry for that delicious armor your fighter is wearing.

Basic D&D

Armor Class: 2
Hit Dice: 5*
Move: 120’ (40’)
Attacks: 1
Damage: See below
No. Appearing: 1-4 (1-4)
Save As: Fighter 3
Morale: 7
Treasure Type: Nil
Alignment: Neutral
XP Value: 300
The Rust Monster appears in the Dungeons & Dragons Basic Set (1977) with nothing new, luckily for the Rust Monster, it gets a few updates in the updated Moldvay/Cook Basic Set (1981) and the BECMI Basic Set (1983). The original Basic Set from 1977 still has no information describing what this ‘inoffensive’ creature looks like and the limited information provided in OD&D is cut down even further. It’s not until the next Basic Set in 1981 that those who play Basic are able to gaze with horror at this monster and get a more detailed explanation of what exactly it is.
The Rust Monster is described as a giant armadillo with a long tail, it has two feelers in the front that are more aptly described as long antennae. This description makes us question the ‘inoffensive’ tag that they had been described with previously, those who hail from Texas and similar southwestern states can attest that armadillos aren’t the prettiest of creatures. Combine that with an extra long tail and two long feelers on its face, that the artwork depicts as fuzzy, it makes us worried it is going to feast on our face. Despite the overall sense of danger we get from this creature, at least there is no new lore that it likes to eat people, so that’s a plus.
With little no new information provided in the BECMI Basic Set, let’s go over a change that is featured in the 1981 and 1983 sets with regards to the Rust Monster's only attack. Hitting or being hit by the Rust Monster causes normal metal armor or weapons to immediately rust on contact and, as the description so helpfully points out, they become completely unusable. Thanks for letting us know a pile of rust doesn’t function anymore!
Now, that’s all as before, but this time we get clarification on magical items that might make you feel a teensy bit safer in fighting them. If you strike out at the Rust Monster, which actually makes you the monster, they just want a snack, your +2 magical sword will be reduced by 1 step to a +1 magical sword. It’s not so mean to the fighters, and in fact, your magical sword and magical armor get a chance to save against this type of effect! When you hit or get hit by them, the item targeted by the Rust Monster’s effect gets a 10% chance for every magical bonus to its stats to save against being turned into rust. This means that a +2 shield would have a 20% chance of not being reduced to a +1 shield when struck, while a +1 weapon would have a 10% chance of not becoming a mundane sword.
In the 1983 Basic Set, there is a solo adventure to help teach new players how to play Dungeons & Dragons and features you assuming the role of a fighter and going around and clearing the nearby caves of baddies. The adventure is set up like a choose your own adventure and has you fighting goblins, ghouls, and the Rust Monster.
During the fight with this horrendous monster, it strips you of all your armor and weapons and then, as you stand their defenseless bracing yourself for the final blow… it loses interest in you and starts eating all the rust your equipment made for it. According to this adventure, Rust Monsters are not evil or mean, just hungry for rust, and have no intention of killing you. This is a great little tidbit hiding behind an adventure about the monster and how it operates inside of the world, it’s a little sad that this type of information wasn’t made available in the description of the monster. We might’ve saved even more of these strange monsters from being killed by murder-hobo players!

AD&D

Frequency: Uncommon
No. Appearing: 1-2
Armor Class: 2
Move: 18”
Hit Dice: 5
% in Lair: 10%
Treasure Type: Q (x10)
No. of Attacks: 2
Damage/Attack: Nil
Special Attacks: See below
Special Defenses: Nil
Magic Resistance: Standard
Intelligence: Animal
Alignment: Neutral
Size: M
Psionic Ability: Nil
Unfortunately for the Rust Monster, it doesn’t change much in this edition, though it at least makes it into the Monster Manual (1977). Rust Monsters will only be found in dark, damp locations like dungeons, underground caverns, or potentially in a sewer. They spend their time wandering around, looking for food that, as mentioned previously, is made up of metal. For them, their ideal food is ferrous metals and they typically disregard metals like gold or silver, unlike the humanoids that wander the world murdering for it. The Rust Monster will hunt out these metal types, such as steel, iron, mithral, adamantine, and the like, being able to smell it from a fair distance away. Now we are sure they do other things other than just looking for food, like make more Rust Monsters, but we have no additional details. For all we know, they could be the life of the party at dungeon gatherings.
1st edition also uses the same rules as Basic does when it comes to how they deal with weapons and armor. Anything they touch with an antenna rusts away so long as it is a metal and anything you touch them with rusts away if it is a metal. If you are carrying out some magical items, you get that all-important saving throw to not lose it forever as it gets a cumulative 10% per magical bonus to the item. There is a big difference however, if the item fails the save, it immediately turns to rust. None of that wimpy being reduced by one so that your +2 sword would become a +1 sword. Fail that save and say goodbye to the magical flail your deity bestowed upon you. Good luck trying to explain that one.
The last bit of information you can squeeze out of the description is that Rust Monsters are easily distracted. When you decide to run away, and if your party is made up of only fighters clad in plate, and you should run away, you can distract the Rust Monster from chasing you down. You’ll finally have a use for those caltrops you’ve been carrying around forever as you throw them on the ground and the Rust Monster will pause to have a snack. It’s a quick eater though, as it will only stop for a single round to munch on them. So get behind a door and wedge it shut. Now only if you had some caltrops…
We find out much more information about the Rust Monster in Ed Greenwood’s Ecology of the Rust Monster (Dragon Magazine #88, 1984). We know exactly what the first thing you want to know about these Rust Monsters is, and don’t worry, we’ll let you know right after we talk about the important lore we learn about the Rust Monster. If you just can’t wait, skip this next paragraph.
Rust Monsters are highly dependent on their sense of smell, which makes sense as we know they can smell metals from a distance, but what you didn’t know is that if the Rust Monster can’t smell the object, they won’t know it is there. If some beautiful and tasty ferrous metal is hanging out in plain view, and for some reason they can’t smell it, it’ll completely ignore it and keep on walking past it. This ability to sniff out metals, and even to turn metals into rust, is thanks to a unique strain of bacteria that exists within the Rust Monster. It turns out, the Rust Monster is a host to this bacteria that produces sugar out of metals, more specifically ferrous metals, and then provides that nutrition to the Rust Monster. This, coupled with the energy of sunlight, which is weird as they hang out in dark, damp locations, keep the bacteria and the Rust Monster alive, rusting, and in good health. No one knows exactly what this bacteria is and it can’t live outside of the Rust Monster, but there are many interested in trying to grow their own and see what else they can do with such marvelous bacteria.
Now, for the information, you were dying to learn. If you skipped the paragraph above just so you could find this information out… well, we don’t know what that means about you. Rust Monsters reproduce by finding another one of their kind, the male Rust Monster will then begin making chittering noises. Because they aren’t very picky about who they propagate their species with, and that they mate very often, the female is more than likely down, and then 4 to 7 months later a baby Rust Monster will be born completely whole and ready to start devouring metals. It will stay with its mother for a few months before running off on its own and after a year of being alive, it’ll start chittering around to make more rust babies.

2e

Climate/Terrain: Subterranean
Frequency: Uncommon
Organization: Solitary
Activity Cycle: Night
Diet: Metalalove
Intelligence: Animal (1)
Treasure: Q
Alignment: Nil [MC] / Neutral [MM]
No. Appearing: 1 -2
Armor Class: 2
Movement: 18
Hit Dice: 5
THAC0: 15
No. of Attacks: 2
Damage/Attack: Nil
Special Attacks: See below
Special Defenses: Nil
Magic Resistance: Nil
Size: M (5’ long)
Morale: Average (9)
XP Value: 270
The Rust Monster is forced to wait until the Monstrous Compendium Volume Two (1989) to get some love from 2nd edition and is later reprinted in the Monstrous Manual (1993). This edition goes to greater lengths to depict it more like an insect than in the previous versions, and outside of the metallic-like shell that covers it back, looks nothing like an armadillo. A yellowish-brown color, it now smells like wet, oxidizing metal. Yum. It has two freakishly long antennae extending out from its face, its legs look like they belong on a cricket, and its tail has a hammer or paddle-like extension in the back. It’s a very strange creature, but the text assures us it is still very inoffensive and just wants to eat.
This edition goes to great lengths to paint this monster as not an evil creature, but a misunderstood one that just can’t help its nature. Due to its ever-present hunger, it has little interest in anything that doesn’t have metal. In fact, it is quite excited when it smells metal, especially if it is forged and worked metal like your fighter’s plate armor. They prefer eating refined metal armor than just chunky raw ore, but that doesn’t make them an evil creature. Wouldn’t you rather have a meal from a fine dining restaurant than have to eat prison food?
Of course, you would, and your shiny +1 sword is a gourmet meal to the Rust Monster. If you don’t happen to carry any metal, looking at you wizards, it won’t bother you but will sniff at you curiously. If you have nothing of interest, read: metal food, it will leave you alone and continue looking for scrumptious morsels to feast on. Now if you’re a dwarf, these creatures are like roaches to you, a pest that you want to eradicate. Dwarves aren’t known to be the sharing type, and since our Rust Monster eats the precious metals they use in their forges, they must be eliminated with extreme prejudice.
Little changes for the Rust Monster, attacks against them with metal weapons will turn those same weapons into rust. Attacks by the Rust Monster don’t hurt you but do leave you naked as your armor turns to rust. All magical metal items get a chance of not turning to rust on contact, the same as the previous edition. The largest change is that now, there is a 30% chance per round that a Rust Monster will simply stop mid-combat to snack on any rust that has formed as you tried to keep it away. It doesn’t matter how much of your stuff it has turned to rust, or how much more stuff you have that would be tasty, it will always take one round to consume all the rust around it.
For the sake of argument, let’s say you kill a Rust Monster because there is no driving these creatures away. They are apparently too stupid to have a sense of self-preservation and only have the thought to consume more and more rust. If you kill one of these innocent and pure creatures, what type of treasure can you expect? Well, there is a very high likelihood you’ll find rust… from your own equipment. But also gems! Rust Monsters don’t collect treasures and don’t have a use for gems that are embedded into sword hilts or helmets, leaving them scattered around on the floor. Maybe their young like to play with gems like they are balls when they aren’t gorging themselves on rust.
Speaking of their young there is a small chance that you could find a happy little family, with the parents having a single offspring with them. Being an only child has its challenges, but at least it won’t have to share its meals. The kiddo may only be at the half-strength of a normal Rust Monster, but it eats as if it is fully grown. Creatures that eat organic materials and leave behind the metals, such as carrion crawlers and gelatinous cubes, are their best friends, following behind and eating the discarded metals.
The last new tidbit of information you can glean about the Rust Monsters takes us off the Prime Material Plane and out into the Outer Planes. On the first layer of the plane of Acheron, Avalas, you might stumble across a strange sight. That of an insectoid-dragon with its tendrils turning the metal cubes of Acheron to rust for it too greedily devour. These Rust Dragons are supposedly the imago, or adult, form of the Rust Monster, while the Rust Monsters we all know and love, well maybe not love, the larva forms of the Rust Dragons.
Rust Monsters will somehow journey, once they get incredibly old, to the Outer Plane of Acheron where they will gorge themselves for a whole year on the metal cubes located on Avalas. After a year passes, they will then spin themselves a metallic web and will go into the pupa stage inside of their chrysalis where they will undergo a metamorphosis for three years. Upon emerging out of their metal spun shell, they will take on the form of a Rust Dragon and begin a long life of happily gorging themselves on the metal cubes of Acheron.

3e/3.5e

Medium Aberration
Hit Dice: 5d8+5 (27 hp)
Initiative: +3
Speed: 40 ft. (8 squares)
Armor Class: 18 (+3 Dex, +5 natural), touch 13, flat-footed 15
Base Attack/Grapple +3/+3
Attacks: Antennae touch +3 melee (rust)
Full Attack: Antennae touch +3 melee (rust) and bite -2 melee (1d3)
Space/Reach: 5 ft./5ft.
Special Attacks: Rust
Special Qualities: Darkvision, scent
Saves: Fort +2, Ref +4, Will +5
Abilities: Str 10, Dex 17, Con 13, Int 2, Wis 13, Cha 8
Skills: Listen +7, Spot +7
Feats: Alertness, Track
Climate/Terrain: Underground
Organization: Solitary or pair
Challenge Rating: 3
Treasure: None
Alignment: Always neutral
Advancement: 6-8 HD (Medium); 9-15 HD (Large)
Level Adjustment: -
The Rust Monster moves on up in this edition and gets introduced in the Monster Manual (2000/2003). To some, it now looks more like an insect than in the previous versions, while others may think it now looks like an ugly mess of skin pudding. Looking at the artwork, Rust Monsters now have the coloring of reddish hues into a yellowish-brown color. It very much looks like it is rust, whether or not it is because of years of eating rust has stained its body.
3rd edition also introduces something new for the Rust Monster, it can now hurt you by biting on to you for a paltry 1d3 points of damage. Of course, its primary attack, corroding all your metal items, is now listed as a “Rust” attack. So much for originality, but it gets the point across. Also, we finally have a measurement of how much metal can be rusted in one attack, and that is a 10-foot cube of metal. That is over a ton of metal to destroy in one blow.
Magic items no longer get a percentage chance of being affected, rather you must make a Reflex saving throw or watch as your beautiful set of ancient plate armor from a lost civilization rusts away into a pile of delicious food. We suppose if we just watched what could only be called a priceless artifact get turned into chowder, we’d be a bit upset too.
Now, we aren’t opposed to change, in fact we enjoy seeing how monsters augment and morph throughout the many editions, even if we complain about it. We only mention this because of the great injustice that 3e piles onto the Rust Monster who just wants to eat all your delicious goodies. In the Draconomicon: The Book of Dragons (2003), there is an entry for the Rust Dragon and they are mentioned. You might think that that is appropriate, since the Rust Dragon is just a grown up Rust Monster, but no. This entry goes on to say that the idea that the Rust Dragon is from the Rust Monster is simply the “ravings of deranged lunatics.”
This injustice stands for three long years until Dragon #346 (August 2006) and the article Ecology of the Rust Monster is released and in it, they finally admit that there is probably some connection. The entire article takes a new look at the Rust Monster and is a great read that provides an interesting spin on how the Rust Monster rusts away metal. Instead of using bacteria to destroy metal, a Rust Monster uses its paddle tail to breath in lots of carbon dioxide where it’s body then turns that into pure oxygen. Across its feather-like tentacles and all over its body are tiny little nodules that the Rust Monster can use to eject pure oxygen, along with some pseudo-magic, to immediately oxidize and destroy metals, which explains how the Rust Monster can destroy gold, silver, and other non-ferrous metals.
Apart from their new explanation about the Rust Monster’s abilities, we also get information about how the Rust Monster has several different origin stories, with the widely spread one being that they were created by a god who was scared of technology. They created the Rust Monster as a response to the threat of greater technologies, and all that remains of their realm is a rusty wasteland as these cute little monsters destroyed absolutely everything. There’s a lesson to be learned in there somewhere, but we can’t stop to think about that as the article mentions two other important pieces of information.
The first being that there are different versions of the Rust Monster that reside in different environments, from the shaggy, blue Frostfell Rust Monster that destroys metal by super blasting it with cold and freezing it so it shatters, to the khaki-hued Waste Rust Monsters that turns metal into sand. These different variations of the Rust Monsters can be found all over, each giving the Rust Monsters different ways of destroying your favorite sword.
The second piece of information worth talking about is their relationship to dragons and Rust Dragons in particular. Now you might be groaning for our strange obsession with dragons, but hear us out. There is a small section that briefly mentions that the Rust Monsters might be attracted to the metallic dragons due to their affinity to specific metals. This has led to Rust Monsters, maybe, messing around with some of the metallic dragon eggs, either by tainting the egg itself and transforming it into a Rust Dragon or that the Rust Monster eats the contents of the egg itself, mistaking its metallic egg for metal to be feasted on, transforming them into a Rust Dragon. This is a fascinating look at how magical creatures could interact with each other, though we vastly prefer 2e’s version of events where they spun themselves a comfy metal cocoon and emerged as a pretty insect-dragon with cute little insect wings.

4e

Level 6 Skirmisher
Medium Natural Beast / XP 250
Initiative +10 / Senses Perception +5; low-light vision
HP 66; Bloodied 33
AC 20; Fortitude 16, Reflex 21, ** Will** 17
Speed 8
Bite (standard; at will) +11 vs. AC; 1d10+5 damage, and if the target is wearing heavy armor, the armor is rusting until the end of the encounter. While the armor is rusting, the target takes a cumulative -1 penalty to AC, to a maximum penalty of -5.
Dissolve Metal (standard; encounter) Reliable. Targets a creature wearing or wielding a rusting magic item of 10th level or lower or any non-magic rusting item; +9 vs. Reflex; the rusting item is destroyed.
Rusting Defense (when the rust monster is hit by a weapon attack; at will) The weapon used in the triggering attack is rusting until the end of the encounter. While the weapon is rusting, the target takes a cumulative -1 penalty to damage rolls on attacks that use the weapon, to a maximum penalty of -5.
Residuum Recovery A rust monster consumes any items it destroys. The residuum from any magic items the monster has destroyed can be retrieved from its stomach. The residuum is worth the market value of the item (not one-fifth the value).
Alignment Unaligned / Languages -
Str 8 (+2) Dex 20 (+8) Wis 15 (+5) Con 10 (+3) Int 2 (-1) Cha 12 (+4)
Unfortunately for the fan-favorite Rust Monster, it is forced to wait 2 long years before it arrives in 4e with the release of the Monster Manual 2 (2009). Ok, so the Rust Monster may not be a fan favorite, but it’s probably a favorite of DM’s everywhere, that’s for sure. We usually complain that the 4th edition provides little to no information about the monster we look at, but it’s the exact opposite for our favorite monster, Rusty. We are introduced to not only the Rust Monster but a Young Rust Monster Swarm and the magic loving Dweomer’s Eater. We still won’t forgive them for putting the Rust Monster in the second book of monsters, but it’s a start.
The Rust Monster’s abilities get new fancy names in 4th edition, but they remain the same in what they do. The Rust Monster still isn’t the smartest creature you’ll run into, but it remains one of the hungriest. When encountered, it will immediately head towards the party member wearing and or wielding the most metal, that it can see. See!? Now, Rust Monsters can see your metal, which means no layering dung on you in a desperate attempt to not be smelled.
Now, when it sees all that beautiful metal, which is typically worn by you, Mister Fighter, and it begins to charge you down, how should you respond? If you’ve never run into one of these creatures before, you’ll probably do what you do best… swing your big old sword at it until it dies or you die. By now we all know what happens. Hit Rusty or get hit by Rusty and your fancy metal starts to rust.
The difference now is that the game has become a kinder, gentler game, which is a little sad. Your magical stuff no longer immediately rusts into a small snack for the Rust Monster to feast upon. It will continue to rust over the length of the encounter and it is possible that it too will become a pile of rust, but losing it immediately on a failed save is no more. While its horrifying to watch your Mace of Disruption slowly disintegrate before your eyes throughout an encounter, it’s better than watching it dissolve in your hands in 6 seconds.
In fact, their Dissolve Metal attack only works on equipment that can rust as the statblock specifies “…wearing or wielding a rusting magic item… non-magic rusting item…”. This means if you make a sword completely out of silver for those werewolves, it’ll be fine, at least how we are reading it. Except there’s a small hang up to that, as their defensive ability Rusting Defense has no text about the weapon being able to rust, it simply states that any weapons hitting it take a penalty the more the Rust Monster are struck as the weapon ‘rusts’. At the end of the encounter, your weapon stops rusting.
Of course, what happens if you had used a Mace of Disruption and it died during this knockdown fight with the Rust Monster? That brings us to the biggest change for the Rust Monster, more specifically its Residuum Recovery ability. Unlike many creature abilities, this one doesn’t provide any benefit for the creature, but it provides the player with a massive benefit. When Rusty eats the pile of rust that was once your amazing mace of death, not surprisingly it ends up in its stomach. Now, after eating its fill of metal, the Rust Monster will scurry off, retreating to digest its meal, and we bet most likely he’ll take a nap. Now, we aren’t suggesting that you track down and kill this poor little guy with extreme prejudice, but if you do, you have a chance of saving your precious items.
By slicing the Rust Monster open, you can cut open its stomach, and scoop out the ‘residuum’ that was once your all-powerful weapon and you have a chance to ‘rebuild’ it. 4th edition provides a very handy way of doing so with the Create Magic Item feat which will allow you to recreate the lost item from the residuum. The text of the Rust Monster strongly suggests that the DM allows the player to be able to recover their lost items. It goes on to say that you can make the player suffer for a bit by making them use a plain old weapon before they find the time or person to recreate the item. A newer DM probably thinks this is a great idea, but grognards might start screaming bullshit upon reading this. This, while annoying, is not quite the same awfulness of past editions and just makes the Rust Monster an annoyance and not that dangerous.
We are also introduced to the Young Rust Monster Swarm and Dweomer Eater. The swarm is an interesting creature, when you think of a swarm, you think about a large number of creatures attacking as one. Since Rust Monsters only have 1 to 2 young, the question is how do you find that many children? Do they all go to the same high school and once they hit those teenage years become an unruly pack of angry and disillusioned Rust Monsters? No matter how it happens, it isn’t fun for the poor group that runs into the swarm. Look no further than its primary attack, Swarm of Teeth to understand just how deadly the swarm is. The name alone sounds horrible, and if you happen to be wearing heavy armor, your day truly is ruined. We should point out, no equipment can be destroyed by the swarm, you simply take a penalty until the end of the encounter.
Next up is the Dweomer Eater, which is every sentient magic item's worst nightmare. Not only do they love the taste of metal, but their favorite side dish is arcane energy. Its Magic Consumption defensive ability sucks the magic out of a weapon when you strike at it, of course you can sit back and relax because it comes back by the end of the encounter. If the Dweomer Eater can turn your item to rust and devour it, repeat the previous steps of murdering it in cold blood, dissecting it, and then scooping out your residuum. At this point, it's worth pointing out that when you sold stuff in 4e, you’d get about one-fifth the value of the item, not so with this residuum as you can sell this magical rust for its full market value. You can go up to a merchant with rust in hand, give a small shrug and they’ll pay you for the total amount of that Mace of Disruption you lost. You can then turn around and spend that exact amount the merchant gave you and buy a brand new Mace of Disruption free of all rust, it’s like you never lost your mace at all… which… is… let’s move on to a different topic!
Dragons! Oh wait, there are two Draconomicons (2008/2009) in 4e and neither one has information on the Rust Dragon? Sigh. We regret to inform you that the Rust Dragon has been removed, and every baby Rust Monster’s dreams of metamorphosing into a fearsome dragon is just rust in the wind.
The last thing we should mention about the Rust Monster doesn’t actually have to do with the Rust Monster directly. There is a section at the end of the Rust Monster’s stat blocks called “A Guide to Using Rust Monsters” that has some good pointers in there but also creates a very ‘safe’ atmosphere. The good pointers are that if you include a Rust Monster, come up with ways for the adventurers to carry on their adventuring day, otherwise, the players will feel like they must end the action and return to town to buy new weapons. This could be by providing less optimal equipment early on in the dungeon that the PCs could use or letting them fashion makeshift weapons out of what they can find. It makes sense and is important for DMs to think about.
One of the problems it creates, while not necessarily a problem of the game itself, is that this turns the Rust Monster into a very ‘safe’ encounter. There is no risk of losing your equipment, really its more of an annoyance than anything else, and the players, if they want their stuff back must simply go to town, sell some rust and get all their equipment back. All it takes is time not playing the game for them to do this. While we understand this was done because of the importance of the magic item treadmill in 4e, which was also present in the previous editions, the Rust Monster stops being the threat it once was and just becomes annoying.

5e

Medium monstrosity, unaligned
Armor Class 14 (natural armor)
Hit Points 27 (5d8+5)
Speed 40 ft.
STR 13 (+1) | DEX 12 (+1) | CON 13 (+1 ) | INT 2 (-4) | WIS 13 (+1) | CHA 6 (-2)
Senses darkvision 60 ft., passive Perception 11
Languages -
Challenge 1/2 (100 XP)
Iron Scent. The Rust Monster can pinpoint, by scent, the location of ferrous metal within 30 feet of it.
Rust Metal. Any non magical weapon made of metal that hits the rust monster corrodes. After dealing damage, the weapon take a permanent and cumulative -1 penalty to damage rolls. If its penalty drops to -5, the weapon is destroyed. Non magical ammunition made of metal that hits the rust monster is destroyed after dealing damage.
Bite. Melee Weapon Attack: +3 to hit, reach 5 ft., one creature. Hit: 5 (1d8 + 1) piercing damage.
Antennae. The rust monster corrodes a non magical ferrous metal object it can see within 5 feet of it. If the object isn’t being worn or carried, the touch destroys a 1 foot cube of it. If the object is being worn or carried by a creature, the creature can make a DC 11 Dexterity saving throw to avoid the rust monster’s touch. If the object touched is either mental armor or a metal shield being worn or carried, it takes a permanent and cumulative -1 penalty to the AC it offers. Armor reduced to an AC of 10 or a shield that drops to a +0 bonus is destroyed. If the object touched is a held metal weapon, it rusts as described in the Rust Metal trait.
The Rust Monster is introduced for 5th edition in the Monster Manual (2014) and it is nerfed quite a bit. 5th edition strips away everything that makes them a creature worth fearing, causing grown goliaths to weep like children when their favorite toy is taken away. It now has a mediocre Armor Class, hit points that a 2nd level character could wipe out in a few turns, and the same CR as a giant goat. All this plus the fact that the picture of the Rust Monster is worse than the previous editions, we have to wonder… where was the love for the Rust Monster?
The most damaging blow to the Rust Monster’s greatness involves its Rust Metal ability. No longer does this ability have any effect on magic items. That’s like taking away a dragon’s breath weapon attack or saying that griffons have wings but can’t fly. While you could easily strip the Rust Monster of its ability to destroy magic items and claim it is for game balance as magic items are so rare in 5e, that doesn’t explain the rest of the stat block, nor the Zorbo in Tomb of Annihilation (2017) who can destroy magic items.
If you attack with your non-magical weapon, you get five hits in with it before it is destroyed completely, which probably isn’t going to happen as four average attacks with a shortsword (d6) with just a +3 modifier will end up with you dealing 25 points of damage to the Rust Monster, and because you are an adventuring party of 4, you don’t even have to hit that many times. This just means that your weapon will, instead of being destroyed, just have a permanent penalty to it until you toss it away and buy a new one, or steal the dead goblin’s shortsword. We’d say that this is more of an annoyance than anything else.
Of course, weapons aren’t the only things that a Rust Monster is interested in as armor can be made of metal too. When metal is struck by the Rust Monster, you get a chance to avoid the equipment getting touched by the Rust Monster that is pretty easy to make. If you have no modifier to your Dexterity, there is a 50% chance you won’t get touched by the Rust Monster, and then the Rust Monster’s turn is over and then you wail on it and it dies. If you are unlucky and your armor gets touched, it takes a minus to the AC bonus it provides and is only destroyed if it is reduced to a bonus of 0. Shields would take two turns to destroy completely while most armor would take anywhere from 3 to 8 turns to destroy, though again… it’ll pry take a lot longer as it is such a low DC to succeed.
Looking at the lore for the Rust Monster, we are disappointed that there is no mention of its rightful place as the larva stage of a Rust Dragon, but at this point we weren’t holding our breath. The lore stays pretty much the same, though it does specify the Rust Monster is only interested in ferrous metals, which includes mithral or adamantine, but they no longer can eat silver, gold, and other metals.
The Rust Monster has the Iron Scent ability which allows it to smell metal, which is better than in 4th edition at least, but its range is reduced from 90 feet to a mere 30 feet. Rust Monsters are still inoffensive, even if they aren't described as such anymore, and aren’t likely to attack you unless it smells some delicious ferrous metal on you. If you treat a Rust Monster with love and respect, it could become a pet or a companion. That does mean that if your druid won’t let you kill Rusty for slightly damaging a random weapon you found lying around on the ground, the druid will have to keep a constant eye on it and ensure it doesn’t eat the plate-clad paladin while they are napping.
The Rust Monster was created from a random toy and its legacy had a lasting impact on every character that would run into it. Adventurers would flee in fear from it and, while it was incredibly weak, created an interesting challenge that a party had to face with very real consequences for not planning properly. Throughout the editions, the Rust Monster was slowly pulled back until the main ability that makes it fearsome ends up being useless. By 5th edition, only low-level characters need to be careful if they encounter one as they probably don’t have magical items yet. But then again, losing your longsword at level 2 isn’t that big of a deal. With the way the gold economy works, what else do you have to spend your money on?
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