OVER/UNDER Sports Betting Tutorial | Odds Shark

Will the New Orleans Saints win OVER/UNDER 10.5 games? By University Stats Prof!

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  1. Introduction
The Saints secured the #2 seed in last year’s playoffs following a great 13-3 season, despite Drew Brees missing five games.
Unfortunately, for the third straight season, the Saints were eliminated in dramatic fashion. After suffering through the “Minneapolis Miracle” in 2018 and the non-call on a critical blatant interference penalty against the Rams in 2019, the Saints lost a 26-20 overtime thriller at home against the Vikings. Once again, officials were questioned when the replay showed Kyle Rudolph possibly pushed P.J. Williams on the game-winning touchdown.
Bad luck just continues to stick to this franchise. Will it be THE year where they shake it all off?

  1. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the New Orleans Saints are expected to win 10.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Here are the results

Estimated probability Sportsbook Odds ROI
OVER 10.5 Wins 52% Fan Duel +100 +4.0%
UNDER 10.5 Wins 48% William Hill -110 -8.4%
Tip: Bet OVER 10.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +4.0%
Rank: 30th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -108
Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

3. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
QUARTERBACKS (QB)
Drew Brees is simply unbelievable on the field, and a wonderful human being. He donated $5 million to deliver meals to needy people in the Louisiana state. A great gesture from him and his wife.
Will he ever slow down or what? He is now 41 years old, but his numbers have kept impressing. He has completed at least 70% of his passes in each of his past four seasons, which is jaw-dropping! He led the league in that category last year.
His TD-to-INT ratio has also improved of late. Over the past two years, he has thrown 59 TD passes versus just 9 picks.
Backup QB Teddy Bridgewater left for Carolina during the offseason. Who can blame him? He deserved a chance to be a starter in this league once again. He’s joining a much weaker team, though. He did a very good job when Brees went down to a thumb injury.
For a moment, the backup QB became Taysom Hill, who has been the jack-of-all-trades in this offense. He can throw, he can run, he can catch.
However, it’s unclear who gets the #2 role following the signing of Jameis Winston, also known as “The Turnover Machine.”
Winston threw for 5,109 yards last year, which turned out to be the 8th-most in league history. However, the 30 interceptions (!!!) and five lost fumbles put a big blemish on his 2019 season. A 60.7% completion rate wasn’t all that great, either. He has great weapons to work with, including stud receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Playing for the Saints could end up being the best thing that has ever happened to Winston. He will get great tips from Drew Brees who, unlike Winston, doesn’t turn the ball over often. The former Buc has a great arm and he is in his mid-twenties; not all hope is lost for the former #1 overall pick out of Florida State.

RUNNING BACKS (RB)
Alvin Kamara’s numbers have been incredibly steady since entering the league in 2017. He has rushed for 728, 883 and 797 yards during that time frame, while catching exactly 81 balls (!!!) in each of these three seasons. His TD output was his lowest of his career though, as he only scored six total touchdowns in 2019.
It is worth noting, though, that he battled through injuries last year. He had more trouble breaking tackles down the stretch. He will be back at 100% when the 2020 season begins.
Latavius Murray is nice luxury as a backup running back. He picked up almost as many rushing yards as Kamara, while posting a nice 4.4 yards-per-carry average. This figure has never been lower than 3.9 in any of his six years in the NFL, which is remarkable.
Kamara missed two games last year; in those games, Murray racked up 150 and 157 total yards with a couple of touchdowns in each of those contests. The Saints will be in good hands if Kamara gets hurt.

WIDE RECEIVERS (WR)
Michael Thomas broke Marvin Harrison’s single-season record for receptions by catching 149 balls. He caught a minimum of four passes in all games and cleared the 100-receiving yard mark on 10 occasions.
Thomas was truly dominant. What’s even more incredible is he caught 149-of-185, which amounts to a mind-boggling 80.5% catch rate (an unbelievable percentage given the high volume).
With Thomas and Kamara catching so many passes, that didn’t leave many targets to the other receivers. Ted Ginn’s play seemed to drop off quite a bit, as he caught 30-of-56 balls thrown his way. He has his second-worst PFF grade over his 13-year career. At 35 years old, you have to wonder whether he has some gas left in the tank or not. I don’t believe he can rebound in 2020.
Meanwhile, Tre’Quan Smith was a disappointment last year. He did catch 5 TD passes for the second straight year after being selected in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft, but catching 18 passes for 234 yards won’t be anyone very excited.
As if the team needed more playmakers, they went on to get Emmanuel Sanders who started the year in Denver before getting traded to San Francisco.
Sanders suffered a brutal Achilles injury in 2018, but that did not prevent him from having a very nice 2019 season. He totaled 66 receptions for 869 yards and 5 TDs. He’s a nice get considering Ginn is getting older and Smith has yet to pan out.

TIGHT ENDS (TE)
Jared Cook is another aging player who has done surprisingly well. He hauled in 43 passes for 705 yards, which was not that close from being career-highs. However, his 9 TD receptions and his 16.4 yards-per-catch average were his career best. He started the season slowly, but seemed to develop a great chemistry with Drew Brees down the stretch.
Josh Hill is not much of a receiver, but he does the job as a blocker. He’s been with the team for seven years and 2019 was his best season in terms of receptions (25) and receiving yards (226). He is not a threat to take away Cook’s number one role.
The team traded four picks in order to select Adam Trautman out of Dayton in the third round of this year’s draft. His receiving production increased in each of his four years in college; it culminated with a 70-916-14 receiving line in 11 starts. Wow, 14 TDs in 11 games?!?
The only question surrounding Trautman is: can he handle a much higher level of competition than what he faced with Dayton? He could become a starter in 2021, considering Jared Cook’s age.

OFFENSIVE LINE (OL)
This is an exceptional group and all players are returning for the 2020 season, which does not bode well for opposing defenses.
Center Erik McCoy was picked in the second round of the draft last year and he competed with Nick Easton and Cameron Tom during training camp. McCoy won the job and finished as the number 4 center out of 37 guys, based on PFF ratings. I think it’s fair to say it was a great season for him.
Left tackle Terron Armstead made it to the Pro Bowl for the second consecutive year. He has received good marks in each of his seven seasons with the Saints. Drew Brees can rest easy with his blindside being protected by Armstead.
At right tackle the Saints have Ryan Ramczyk. PFF made him the #1 tackle in the entire league with a 90.9 grade last year. He has improved in each of his three seasons and has started all games but one.
At guard, New Orleans has Larry Warford and Andrus Peat. Warford was the 8th-best guard in the NFL according to ProFootballFocus ratings, while Peat was the only guy to struggle on this offensive line. Indeed, he finished at spot #70.
We observe a weird tendency regarding Peat. His PFF grades in his first three seasons were 68.0, 71.5 and 68.3, which is decent. Then, his marks took a huge dip in 2018: an abysmal 39.8. He followed it up with a 48.5 grade last year. The team doesn’t seem too concern about his level of play since they re-signed him to a lucrative five-year, $57.5 million contract.
Taking center Cesar Ruiz in the first round last April was a bit surprising. New Orleans already has a great center with McCoy. Head coach Sean Payton already claimed that right guard Larry Warford will have to compete for his job with either Ruiz or McCoy. Even though Warford played well last year, he is entering the final year of his contract.
For your information, Ruiz did not allow a single sack as a junior with Michigan last year. He also does a good job run blocking.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
My opinion won’t be popular, but I do see a downgrade here. Sure, returning pretty much the entire 2019 lineup is great, but I’m wary of a few things.
First, the age factor. Brees is 41 years old and your body gets hurt more easily when you reach your forties. You can’t deny he has a higher likelihood of getting injured this season. If that happens, losing Teddy Bridgewater is going to hurt the offense, although Winston might pick up the slack if he can cut down on the turnovers.
Jared Cook, Emmanuel Sanders and Ted Ginn are also getting up there in age. Also, how in the world could you expect Michael Thomas to play at a higher level than last year? He is much more likely to regress than to improve upon his 2019 performance.
Finally, the offensive line did not suffer many injuries last season, except Andrus Peat who missed six games, but he was the weakest link on the line anyway. I don’t wish them bad luck, but one of their top four guys could easily get hurt, due to the physical nature of the game.
The Saints scored the third-highest number of points last year, and I’ll cautiously put them in the #5 to #8 spot.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small Downgrade


4. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN (DL)
Signing a contract extension with David Onyemata was a priority for the organization. They did just that during the offseason. The team clearly likes him, despite a mediocre 55.3 PFF grade last year (he finished as the number 97 DL out of 114 qualifiers).
Sheldon Rankins is a former first-round pick who had a breakout 2018 campaign, which included a career-high 8 sacks. He was much quieter last year.
Rankins tore his Achilles’ in early 2019, and landed on injured reserve in December 2019 after coming close to tearing the other one. That’s a major question mark since such injuries are always tricky for football players.
Malcom Brown played close to 50% of the snaps last year. After spending four years in New England as a former first-rounder, he had a decent first year in New Orleans. He’s more effective defending the run than he is rushing the passer (he has recorded just two sacks in the past two years).
Shy Tuttle is more of a rotational player. His rookie season as an undrafted free agent exceeded expectations and he clearly deserves a shot to be back this year.

DEFENSIVE ENDS (DE) / EDGE (ED)
The Saints have a fantastic duo with Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, two former 1st round picks.
Jordan set a career-high with 15.5 sacks last year, after posting 12 and 13 sacks the previous two seasons. He’s an incredibly tough guy; can you believe he hasn’t missed a single game throughout his nine-year professional career? That’s phenomenal!
Davenport took a nice forward leap in his sophomore year. His PFF grade went up from 69.7 to 84.1. According to this grading system, Davenport was the 18th-best edge defender out of 107 guys.
Trey Hendrickson provides good depth for the Saints. He has shown improvement in each of his first three years in the league. He sacked opposing QBs on 4.5 occasions last year, after racking up just two in his first two years. The 25-year old is primed for another leap in 2020.
After a promising rookie season, Mario Edwards has been released a couple of times. He works as a rotational pass-rusher; he played 28% of the snaps last year. He’s been bothered by neck and hip injuries throughout his first five years in the league.

LINEBACKERS (LB)
Demario Davis was exceptional in all facets of the game last year. He played so well that he earned the #1 spot out of 89 LBs based on the PFF grading system.
He seems unlikely to repeat his 2019 performance, though. His PFF marks never exceeded 63 during his first five years. They went up to 73.7 and 75.1 in 2017 and 2018 before exploding to an astounding 90.4 last year. Entering his age-31 campaign, I find it hard to believe he could duplicate his success.
A.J. Klein’s career has been a roller-coaster ride. He’s had up-and-down years. Most recently, he had horrible 2016, 2017 and 2019 seasons, but above-average years in 2015 and 2018. He signed with Buffalo, so the Saints won’t need to deal with his inconsistencies anymore.
Is Kiko Alonso ready to embrace a bigger role in this defense? The answer is unclear. He played fairly well last year after two straight dreadful seasons in Miami, but his health is an issue. He tore his ACL during the playoff loss to the Vikings. That required the third ACL surgery of his career, which leaves some doubt about whether his quickness will be affected or not.
Considering the lack of depth at the position, drafting Zack Baun in the third round made sense. The former Badger has a high chance of starting right away. He collected 19.5 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks as a senior. He’s a bit undersized for the position, which means he could potentially struggle against the run but he’s a fierce pass rusher. Many mock drafts had him going in Round 2, so it seems like a good value pick that also fits a need.

CORNERBACKS (CB)
Eli Apple was let go during the offseason. He’s been nothing short of a disappointment since being selected as the No. 10 overall pick in 2016. He’s fine against the run, but his covering skills have been below standard.
Strangely enough, Marshon Lattimore’s PFF grades have decreased every year: 86.1 as a rookie first-round pick in 2017, 78.5 in his sophomore season and 65.6 last year. Granted, a hamstring injury limited him in 2019.
Lattimore picked off 5 passes in his rookie season, then just three over the past two years. He does have the potential to make it back among the best corners in the league.
P.J. Williams was primarily used as a slot corner last year, and things didn’t go so well. Just like Lattimore, his PFF grades have dipped every year. He finished as the 100th-bets CB out of 112 players.

SAFETIES (S)
Marcus Williams enjoyed a very successful rookie season before being the victim of the sophomore slump. However, he came back super strong last year. PFF ranked him as the third-best safety in the league, only behind Minnesota’s Anthony Harris and Denver’s Justin Simmons. He has a knack for big plays, as shown by his 10 career interceptions, one TD and two forced fumbles.
New Orleans lost its other starting safety, Vonn Bell, in the free agency market. His coverage skills were below-average, but he was one of the best in the business defending the run.
The team figures to replace him with Malcolm Jenkins, formerly of the Philadelphia Eagles. He is seven years older than Bell, but he’s a proven veteran.
After five rocky seasons with the Saints during the 2009-2013 period, Jenkins had six consecutive good seasons in Philly. Now back with the team that drafted him 11 years ago, Saints fans are crossing their fingers he can keep up his nice level of play. Last year, Jenkins was the 32nd-best safety in the NFL based on PFF rankings.
I just don’t understand the length of Jenkins’ deal: a four-year deal with a 32-year old guy? Really?
The Saints traded up during the 2019 draft to secure the rights to Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in the 4th round. He showed promise in his rookie season with very decent grades, especially against the run. He played 51% of the snaps and picked up his first interception and forced fumble of his career.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
The Saints allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards in the league last year. That seems unlikely to happen again in 2020. Rankins’ health concerns me. I don’t believe Onyemata is that good. And Demario Davis’ play is extremely likely to regress after an unexpected phenomenal 2019 season.
As for the pass defense, I expect similar production as last year. Plugging Malcolm Jenkins instead of Vonn Bell at safety seems like an upgrade to me. However, losing Eli Apple is hardly good news. He was “okay” last season, but he had potential and he still needs to be replaced. Hopefully, plan B is not P.J. Williams because he does not appear to be the answer.
New Orleans finished 13th in points allowed last year. I expect a small drop, perhaps to a spot ranging between 15 and 19.
Final call (2020 vs 2019) : Small downgrade
submitted by David-MJ to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Alright, neoliberals. I've got a ton of notes from Joseph Stiglitz's "The Great Divide" and "Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy". What have the succs got wrong?

At the same time that I've been browsing this subreddit prolifically (because it's the only political subreddit I've found where something like this thread I've linked gets upvoted), I've done a lot of reading, specifically Joseph Stiglitz's books The Great Divide and Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy. Apparently you guys don't like Stiglitz, so I'm looking for whatever criticism you have to throw at the ideas presented in these two books. Stiglitz seems to agree with you all a lot, so I'm kinda confused. I read these books thinking your ideas and his are one of the same.

The Great Divide

Despite being longer than Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy, I took less notes on this one, since I didn't care as much about retaining my memories of what I read at the time. Anyways, here's everything you guys apparently don't agree with:

Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy

The Current Rules:

Rewriting the rules:

These proposals aim to reduce inequality and improve economic performance by restructuring the rules shaping the economy. It’s a twofold approach: the first move is to tame rent-seeking behaviors that unduly reward those at the top while raising costs for the rest and reducing the efficiency and stability of the U.S. economy. The second part of our agenda seeks to restore the rules and institutions that ensure security and opportunity for the middle class.

Taming the top

Make markets competitive
-We need a 21st century competition law that recognizes that we have moved from a manufacturing to a service and knowledge economy, where different principles of competition are relevant. Restore balance to global trade agreements -Trade agreements written behind closed doors with the active participation of firms but no other stakeholders are failing to deliver the rules we need to manage globalization in a way that benefits all. -Businesses wishing to trade with businesses in the US under the terms of an agreement should be audited and certified by a credible, independent third party such as the International Labor Organization; certification then buys the company a right to trade under the preferential treatment of a trade agreement.
Control health care costs by allowing government bargaining
-Firms from across the health care industry have been allowed to consolidate and expand, reducing competition and raising prices. -By bargaining with drug companies for bulk purchases, the VA pays 40 percent lower prices for prescription drugs than typical market prices. -The federal government should establish a national prescription drug formulary, establishing the cost effectiveness for all prescription purchases covered under all public health insurance plans, not just those for veterans.
Rebalance the rules for bankruptcy by expanding coverage to homeowners and students
-Removing the special protections for derivatives in bankruptcy, a feature that benefits Wall Street but actually makes firms more risky as they rely more on these exotic instruments, is essential in reducing the excessive financialization of the economy. -Removing some of the most burdensome elements designed to make filing for bankruptcy harder will help individuals move on from the misfortunes that can happen throughout life. -A homeowners’ chapter 11, analogous to corporate chapter 11, would keep families in homes and give a fresh start to families overburdened with debt.
Fix the Financial Sector
-The financial sector isn’t doing what it’s supposed to: managing risk, allocating capital efficiently, intermediating between savers and investors, providing funds for investments and job creation, and running an efficient 21st century payments mechanism.
End “too big to fail”
-Banks that are so big that their failure will cause the entire economy to contract don’t need to internalize the costs of their failures and can reap huge benefits from risky bets. They have a perverse incentive to take on excess risk, knowing that should a problem arise they will be bailed out, with losses being borne by others. -Even when banks aren’t too big to fail, they can be too interlinked to fail: with excessive linkages the failure of one institution can lead to a cascade of other failures - stoppable only with a government bailout. That is why interlinkages need to be transparent and regulated. -The Financial Stability Oversight Council should assess large, systemically risky financial firms with an additional capital surcharge above what regulators currently assess under the Basel Accords in order to make failure less likely and more manageable. A surcharge would force banks to internalize the true cost of their risks and improve economic efficiency, while insulating taxpayers from the costs of failed institutions.
Regulate the shadow banking sector and end offshore banking
-Shadow banks are nonbank financial institutions that engage in lending by trading bonds and securities, often by bundling them through a process called securitization. -The SEC should reevaluate and expand on its recent ruling on money market mutual funds, whose vulnerabilities in the 2008 financial crisis sparked a panic. -The Federal Reserve must write clear rules outlining the government’s role in back-stopping the shadow banks. -There needs to be a re-examination of the extent to which shadow banks and offshore financial centers are used to end-run the regulations designed to ensure a safe and sound financial system.
Bring transparency to all financial markets
-Congress should expand the SEC’s mission, and require private equity and hedge funds to disclose holdings, returns, and fee structures. The SEC should provide additional regulatory scrutiny and investor advice on these deals. This will formalize their regulation, making it similar to mutual fund regulations; the competition that will follow from this price transparency will help reduce financial rents.
Reduce credit and debit card fees
-High consumer fees on credit and debit card transactions are one clear symptom of abuse of market power in the financial sector. -These fees are a monopoly rent on the country’s networked payments infrastructure.
Enforce rules with stricter penalties
-In the past decade there’s been a shift away from strict criminal enforcement of financial regulation. Fewer, if any, cases go to court. Instead the SEC and the Justice Department settle with favorable conditions, such as deferred prosecution agreements. Under these agreements, the parties regularly don’t admit to any wrongdoing, or even pay penalties commensurate to their benefits. No individual is held directly accountable. The fines that are paid come from shareholders and are tax deductible; the perpetrators of the offenses aren’t necessarily punished or made to give back the compensation they received as a reward for the extra profits generated by their illegal activities. -Firms promise not to repeat their offenses, but they usually do. -The SEC and other regulatory agencies should instead focus on more strict enforcement, and Congress should hold the agencies accountable if no progress is made. No company should be able to enter into a deal like a deferred prosecution agreement if it is already operating under such an agreement. These agreements should face stricter judicial review and scrutiny, and compensation schemes should be designed so that perpetrators face significant consequences - for instance, a clawback of bonuses and a reduction in retirement benefits.
Incentivize long-term business growth -The rules governing corporations and taxes on capital and top incomes have changed to favor short-term shareholders and CEOs who chase short-term stock price gains above all else. -This has led to greater inequality and has undermined real investments that create long-term growth.
Restructure CEO pay
-Adjust the tax code, which privileges compensation of executives through equity-heavy compensation, particularly stock options. -Eliminate or curtail the performance-pay loophole (by which stock options and other excessive CEO pay receives favorable treatment). This will both address executive pay being too high and discourage CEOs from behaving like financial speculators. -Maintain the $1 million cap on the deductibility of executive compensation reform, eliminate the exception for so-called performance pay, and expand these limits on deductibility to the highest paid executives in a company overall. -The SEC should require corporations to state the value of compensation in simple, easy to understand language. -There should be mandatory shareholder votes on executive compensation on an annual basis(footnote: our current Say-on-Pay rule is non-binding). Enact a financial transactions tax -Short-term financial transactions can contribute to economic volatility without providing any larger benefit to the economy as a whole. -A variant of financial transaction taxes are currently employed without negative consequence in vibrant financial centers like London and Hong Kong. -Congress should pass a financial transaction tax designed to encourage productive investment. Empower long-term stakeholders -There should be a surtax on short-term capital gains given the negative externality of the trading behavior incentivized. -To improve long-term management of corporations, workers must be given a say in corporate governance, specifically by including a representative of employees on the corporate board. -Those managing retirement accounts should be obligated to avoid all conflicts of interest and, especially in the case of worker pensions, ensure the corporations in which they invest act in a responsible way, with good corporate governance, an eye to long-term value, good labor policies, and sound environmental policies.
Rebalance the tax and transfer system
-The United States ranks among the least redistributive countries in the OECD. -Taxes can improve incentives, encourage socially desirable economic behavior, and discourage undesirable behavior like short-termism. -Over the past 35 years, changes to the tax code have prioritized tax cuts and subsidies focused on those at the top, placing a greater tax burden on the rest and causing neglect of critical public investments.
Raise the top marginal rate
-Lower marginal tax rates at the top distort the economy by actively encouraging rent seeking. -A 5 percent increase on the top 1 percent’s current income tax rate would raise between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion of additional revenue over 10 years. -For an extra $50,000 taxed on every $1 million of a wealthy individual’s income, the United States could make all public college education free and fund universal pre-K.
Enact a “fair tax”
-The preferential treatment of capital gains and dividends - income received almost entirely by the richest Americans - is one of the most important reasons that those at the top pay less than ordinary taxpayers. -Most Americans earn negligible capital income outside already tax-sheltered retirement savings accounts or on home sales - for which a large exemption exists. -Capital gains tax breaks do not spur investment. They reward speculation as opposed to work. -The US should tax capital gains income at the same rate as labor income. -Short-term capital gains should be taxed at an even higher rate to discourage volatile short investments. -The provision for step-up in basis at death needs to be eliminated. This provision allows all of the capital gains earned during an individual’s life to escape taxation when the asset is bequeathed, meaning a small number of wealthy families pass on wealth free from capital gains tax in perpetuity.
Encourage U.S. investment by taxing corporations on global income
-The current tax code allows corporations to defer paying U.S. taxes on profits earned abroad until the profits are repatriated, which has the perverse effect of encouraging corporations to keep profits abroad as opposed to using the funds for U.S. investment. -One option is to replace the transfer price system with a formulaic approach that would tax firms on their global income in a fair and comprehensive way, apportioning those profits to the U.S. on the basis of the economic activity - including sales, production, and research - that occurs here.
Enact pro-growth, pro-equality tax policies
-We should tax things that have an inelastic supply, like land, oil, or other natural resources. -We should tax pollution (including carbon emissions), a move that can raise revenue while improving economic efficiency. -Eliminating agricultural subsidies and noncompetitive bidding processes for the sale or lease of government-owned natural resources or for the purchase of armaments or prescription drugs under public programs would improve efficiency and reduce inequality.

Growing the middle

Make full employment the goal
-The Fed should emphasize full employment as the goal of monetary policy, and Congress should enact a large infrastructure investment to stimulate growth.
Reform monetary policy to prioritize full employment
-The Fed’s prioritization of price stability has caused labor markets to remain slack, kept wages growing slower than productivity, and has brought down workers’ share of economic output. -Contractionary monetary policy has much stronger unemployment effects for low-wage and often minority workers than for the highest earners. -The Fed should resist raising interest rates until wage growth makes up for the lost ground of the Great Recession, even if this means allowing inflation to temporarily overshoot the 2% target. -There is growing consensus that a higher inflation rate will lead to better economic performance, facilitating adjustments in our highly dynamic and ever-changing economy.
Reinvigorate public investment
-Critical public investments today lay the foundation for long-term economic performance and job growth. -Public investments in education, technology, and infrastructure are complements to private investment, raising returns and thus “crowding in” such investments.
Invest in large-scale infrastructure renovation
-America’s failure to keep up what infrastructure it has makes it more costly to do business and for people to go about their daily lives, and leads to more wasted time and more environmental degradation. -Public transit and broadband play a crucial role in connecting all Americans, regardless of income level, with the 21st century local and global job market. -Not only is infrastructure crumbling, it’s unevenly distributed, with distinct areas and communities segregated from the rest of society and without the opportunities that connecting affords. -A comprehensive plan would provide investments in air, rail, and road transportation; public transit; ports and inland waterways; water and energy; and telecommunications and the Internet. Some estimates put the cost of such a project on the order of $4 trillion - well beyond the small sums currently debated but within our means. The investment would yield dividends in the form of more productive businesses, millions of new jobs, and sustainable management of our energy and environmental resources. -Public infrastructure banks could be useful for financing large infrastructure projects.
Expand access to public transportation
-Decades of disinvestment in U.S. infrastructure have resulted in high commuting costs that fall disproportionately on low- and middle-income families and decrease access to jobs. -Only a little over half of Americans have access to public transit. -If more people have better access to jobs, productivity will increase and lives will improve.

Empower workers

Strengthen the right to bargain
-The National Labor Relations Act is flawed. -One flaw in the statute has allowed employers to delay workers’ votes to unionize by litigating each step of the process. Recent rule changes issued by the National Labor Relations Board have attempted to rebalance some of the power, and they provide a positive example of how the statutes can be updated to reflect current challenges. -Stricter penalties are needed to deter illegal intimidation tactics by employers. -Companies seeking to prevent unionization can retaliate by firing workers; if an NLRA violation is found, the employer merely has to reinstate the worker and pay back wages. A ruling like this can take more than three years. -The legal framework should be amended to adapt to the changing nature of the workplace. Today, few employers resemble the large manufacturers the creators of the NLRA had in mind. Corporations like Walmart employ people through outsourcing and subcontracting, bearing little responsibility for the employment relationship. Legal scholars have envisioned new models for defining the employer-employee relationship that would establish clear lines of responsibility within the modern fissured workplace.
Have government set the standards
-State, local, and municipal governments should grant public contracts only to corporations that meet high labor standards and possess strong antidiscrimination/pro-inclusionary hiring practices.
Increase funding for enforcement and raise penalties for violating labor standards
-Charged with enforcing the minimum wage and overtime protections, the Wage and Hour Division of the Department of Labor has seen a third of its inspectors disappear since 1980, despite a doubling of the country’s workforce. -Congress should increase the agency’s budget to reflect growth in the labor market, the low-wage workforce in particular, and recent evidence of systemic wage theft. -Penalties for minimum wage and overtime infractions are insufficient to deter bad behavior. -Minimum wage and overtime violation convictions should pose an existential threat to businesses so managers and owners will think twice before engaging in such behavior.
Raise the minimum wage
-Raising the minimum wage is unlikely to hurt jobs, unless taken to an extreme. -Given the present weakness in aggregate demand, higher wages would stimulate the economy. -Raising the minimum wage could help reduce working poverty and particularly improve prospects for women, their families, and other disadvantaged groups that are disproportionately represented among minimum wage earners. -The minimum wage for tipped workers should be raised to the same floor that applies for all other workers.
Raise the income threshold for mandatory overtime
-The New Deal’s Fair Labor Standards Act requires that workers who work more than 40 hours a week get overtime pay, at a rate of 150 percent of their regularly hourly wage. However, the act exempts some employers, executives, administration, and traveling salespeople, among others. To provide a base level of coverage, the Department of Labor has periodically issued a rule that establishes an income threshold under which any employee must be paid for overtime. -The current threshold of $455 a week, or $23,660 a year, was last updated in 2004, and covers just 11 percent of the salaried workforce. In 1975, 65 percent of salaried workers were covered by overtime rules; if the 1975 threshold had kept pace with inflation, 47 percent of workers in 2013, rather than just 11 percent, would have received overtime. -The Department of Labor should raise the threshold to restore this pillar of middle class income, ensuring that the majority of salaried workers are covered.

Expand access to labor markets and opportunities for advancement

Reform the criminal justice system to reduce incarceration rates
-The United States has the highest incarceration rate in the world. -In addition to incurring direct costs, mass incarceration reduces employment opportunities and wages, and increases dependency on public assistance for a large share of the population. -The total public cost of incarceration was more than $31,000 per inmate in 2010, according to a study by the Vera institute. -Those who have been locked up end up facing lower hourly wages, annual employment, and annual earnings. This burden falls disproportionately on men of color. -In 2008 the US economy lost the equivalent of 1.5 to 1.7 million workers, or roughly a 0.8 to 0.9 percentage-point reduction in the overall employment rate. -Congress should reduce the burden ex-felons face when searching for jobs by expunging certain records after a set amount of time. -Mandatory minimum sentencing particularly targets people of color. -African-Americans and Latinos accounted for 69.8 percent of mandatory minimum sentences in 2010; tackling this issue will effectively reduce part of the inequality inherent in the nation’s sentencing rules. -Congress should allow judges the ability to waive mandatory minimums. -The DoJ should focus on encouraging alternatives to incarceration. -Inaccessibility to quality attorneys results in disproportionately harsh sentencing for the poorest. According to a report from the Brennan Center of Justice, a concerted effort to reclassify nonjailable offenses, increase public defense funding, and improve effectiveness through regular attorney and social worker training would ensure more equitable access to representation. -Onerous fees at every level of the criminal justice system generate severe financial burdens for the poor and create further points of entry back into the incarceration system.
Reform immigration law by providing a pathway to citizenship
-More than 11 million undocumented immigrants live and work in the shadows of the U.S. economy, in every corner of the country and every sector of work. -The broken immigration system is costly to businesses, who face risks of an uncertain labor supply. -Exploitation of undocumented immigrants drives down wages and working conditions throughout the labor market. -The federal government must provide a pathway to citizenship for those already here and simplify the process by which new migrants can continue to come and contribute to America’s economic success. -We should cease the deportation and internment of all but violent criminals and to normalize the legal status of families working, learning, and serving in America. -We should better coordinate the efforts of different parts of government to enforce immigration laws in ways that don’t undermine the conditions for people working here. ICE should take a back seat to the Department of Labor to ensure that unscrupulous employers cannot easily threaten workers with the prospect of deportation by calling in worksite raids. -Congress should ensure that labor laws apply to everyone, regardless of their documentation status.

Expand economic security and opportunity

Invest in early childhood through child benefits, home visiting, and pre-K
-The state run Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting Program is one of the most effective investments of taxpayer dollars. -One proposal that should be considered is a universal child benefit, a monthly tax-free stipend paid to families with children under 18 to help offset part of the cost of raising kids. -The U.K. recently cut its child poverty rate by more than half through a package of anti-poverty measures, including a universal child benefit. -Congress could immediately expand funding to provide pre-K childcare subsidies to all currently eligible children, expanding access to 12 million children at a cost of $66.5 billion.
Increase access to higher education through more public financing, restructuring student loans, and increasing scrutiny of for-profit schools
-The G.I. Bill helped create the middle-class society that we had aspired to partly by providing free education to returning soldiers. -It’s not true that we can’t afford similar programs, we cannot afford not to ensure that all young Americans get the best education for which they are qualified so they can live up to their potential. -The government should look to follow the lead of Australia and adopt universal income-based repayment, in which repayment consists of a set percentage of future income. Students could then repay their student debts more easily - at much lower transactions costs - through withholding. -Removing bankruptcy protection for those with student loans, particularly in the 2005 policy change under the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, has done nothing to reduce bankruptcy filings resulting in costly defaults. It has extracted money from poor students that goes into the coffers of the banks. The government should restore those protections. -One way to improve outcomes for graduates is to increase scrutiny of for-profit schools, which receive a large share of government-funded loans or government-guaranteed loans while failing to provide students with a quality education. Eighty-seven percent of revenues at for-profits come from federal or state sources, including student loans and Pell grants. Though they teach around 10 percent of students, they account for about 25 percent of total Department of Education student aid program funds. Studies show that those at for-profit schools do poorly compared to those at community colleges. Completion rates are poor, as is success in getting a job.
Make health care affordable and universal
-The health care system is rife with the kinds of market failures that economists have studied extensively, including information asymmetries and imperfections in competition. -Hospitals, physician networks, and health care insurers increasingly operate in conditions approaching monopolies. -Patients largely have neither the medical expertise to perform the cost-benefit analyses necessary for making optimizing choices about the care they need, nor the access to price information for comparison shopping, leaving providers to determine both the demand and supply of health care. -Medicare, with its record of controlling costs and delivering better outcomes, should be opened to everyone. Competition from Medicare’s entry into the insurance exchange would lower premiums for everyone; one study found increased competition on exchanges could lower fees by an estimated 11 percent.
Increase retirement security by reducing transactions costs and the exploitation of retirees, and expanding Social Security
-More people in America will face retirement with inadequate savings, driving down their consumption and/or diverting it from others, or relying more heavily on social transfers. -Expanding the Social Security system to include a “public option” for additional annuity benefits would enhance competition, driving down costs and increasing services. -Research shows that the average 401(k) participant could lose up to a third of future savings in fees. Requiring fund managers to adhere to a fiduciary standard would be an important move in the right direction. -We could require that any pension or retirement account eligible for preferential tax treatment not have excessive transactions costs. Fees on any account could not exceed those on the best-performing indexed funds, unless there were demonstrably higher risk-adjusted returns. -We should remove the payroll cap that limits the amount of revenue Social Security raises to help make Social Security self-sustaining, budget-wise.
Reform political inequality
-Policies favored by the wealthy receive attention, while policy preferences of poor and middle-income Americans are ignored. -People with higher incomes vote more frequently than those with lower incomes and election campaign finance is dominated by a relatively small number of large donors who wield outsize influence. -Voting should be made easy: we should establish a federal system of universal voting that includes automatic voter registration, accepted throughout the country without the need to reregister and without burdensome voter identification requirements; the ability to vote by mail or early in-person on multiple days; the establishment of weekend Election Days or a national election holiday; and online voting when cyber-security concerns are met. -A constitutional amendment could go a long way toward allowing Congress greater leeway to reform campaign finance laws to increase political equality. -We could require shareholders to vote in support of any political contributions before they can be made.
This post is almost as long as Reddit allows, so nice job reading all of this if you have. Now, what's all the disagreement about? How is Stiglitz wrong?
submitted by Skeeh to neoliberal [link] [comments]

Fire Me? You’re All Losing Your Jobs.

My 2019 was wild. But with everything finally on the up and up, I feel I can tell this story here.

After uni (late 2018), I fell on rough times and was forced to move back to my home town. I tried to transfer my job to a branch in my area but failed, thus I needed to get a new job.
I settled for a 20 hour a week job at a bookies, with a second bar tending job in the evenings. The bookies is the target for my revenge, which was entirely accidental.
Involved are the following:
and,
\NAMES CHANGED AND/OR REDACTED])
I ended up working behind the counter as a customer service manager, basically a step up from a cashier. It’s fancy when seen on a CV but there’s nothing really to it. I took bets, chatted with customers, helped people with machines and (for the vast majority of my shift) sat around waiting for something to do. I got on well with my co-workers (or so I thought) and had no major issues.
It was 20 hours a week, about £1 more than minimum wage with a lot of overtime required of me and irregular shift patterns. Though I had no issue with the job, beyond how difficult it was to juggle the schedules of both of my jobs.
In February of 2019 (after working for the company for 6 months) I was invited to a Probation hearing. It cannot be emphasised enough that it was a Probation hearing in which I would have my performance reviewed and (as informed in training) was entitled to a pay rise at the end of it.
I arrived that morning to a Disciplinary Hearing where, without even a shred of evidence, I was accused of 11 different cash discrepancies dating back to early November of 2018 (shortly after I’d started) which all amounted to £271.36. All but one of which I’d never heard of before.
These had apparently been reported and logged by my manager (Shay) and my co-workers, despite no one saying a word to me at all. Not a whisper in the 5 months this had apparently been occurring.
I was told that it was unacceptable, a call was made to HR and I was terminated on the spot and forced to hand over my keys and to never set foot in the store again. To my protests I was told the decision could not be appealed and I would eventually receive written confirmation of my employments termination in the post.
I didn’t let myself slump around and feel sorry for myself, so (on the way home) I opened up Indeed and applied for a bunch of jobs and (before I arrived home) had an interview set up for the next week at what is my current place of work.
Now, I was FURIOUS. Fuming at having gone to what I thought should have been a normal probation meeting and having (effectively) been called a thief and been banned for life from a place I’d never go to anyway. But somehow, my parents were angrier and ordered me to let them know when they got into contact with me again.
Almost two weeks later I received an EMAIL from the companies HR which reiterated the accusations and stated (again) that I was terminated. My mum sat me down in her kitchen and walked me through a letter response that was two parts professional and three parts scathing. Ripping into them about their unprofessional conduct, their ludicrous claims, their lack of evidence, the holes in their story (because their were quite a few) and finally, the cherry on the cake...
The employment laws they’d broken.
Now I didn’t want much, just a nice reference. A promise that not a whisper of these accusations would turn up when my new job asked them for a reference (because, by then, I’d already been offered the job). I then attached the letter to an email to fire back at their HR department.
Then I added Janelle’s work email. Then her bosses email and finally, the holding company that owned the brand. Cause I wanted to make sure this was seen.
A bit of background, the bookies I worked for is a brand that is owned by an international company, their name (behind the scenes) is slapped on everything and they pretty much dictate everything we did. I’m not sure if holding company is the correct term, but I’ll stick to that for now.
Anyway, I sent this email with a fourty-eight hour window for a response. I received a reply the next day from the same email that my demands were being met. I smirked victoriously and moved on with my life, happy to wash my hands with the entire ordeal. However, I’d set off a chain reaction that I wouldn’t know about until three months later.
Three months on, I’d settled into my new job, a call centre position with double the hours and well over double the pay.
I’d gone through training and was settling into my new position when I see a new set of trainees settling in near my team. Among them was Gordan, one of my co-workes from the bookies.
I was stunned. Gordan had been at the bookies for six years when I joined. He was well liked, good at his job and a favourite of the managers. There was no way he’d been fired.
Though I didn’t really want to talk to him (as I was of the impression that he, Jorge and my manager had likely set me up) I did want to know what happened.
Luckily, on seeing me in the break room one shift, he sought me out and told me everything.
Apparently my email had been read by the higher ups in the holding company and had caused a lot of scrutiny to fall onto the bookies in our town (of which there were three in our area that Janelle was responsible for, two in my town and a third in a neighbouring one). Someone in HR passed a message down to the Area Manager (Janelle’s boss) claiming they wanted things investigated and they wanted results yesterday, causing him to drop everything and descend on our little town with the panic and aggression of a man who’s superiors were watching his every breath.
He went to Janelle wanting to know: why he hadn’t been made aware previously that I was apparently stealing money, why I had been given keys to the shop and shifts on my own when allegations of that nature were attributed to me AND why I hadn’t been put under investigation. Turns out, Janelle HAD in fact put in my ‘employee file’ that I was under investigation but had never actually gone through with any of the official procedures for monitoring and investigating me (shock horror). Thus she had fired me for the accused crime without looking into it at all, falsely claiming otherwise.
Thus, the Area Manager took the dates and amounts of the cash discrepancies, confirmed that they had been reported on those days (without my knowledge) in Shay’s own log book of the shops cash, and sent that information onto our security team to investigate.
Another little detail is that the CCTV for every shop in the brand is outsourced to a private security company who monitors each shop remotely and has access to all the camera’s and video. As was procedure, they looked into the dates mentioned to see if I’d been doing anything untoward. I know I wasn’t and nothing was ever said to me.
But they DID find something...
Turns out, money WAS going missing from the shop but (surprise surprise) it wasn’t me, but Jorge and Shay. They not only set me up (for reasons I will never know) but were also falsifying numbers and cash checks on the system to hide it. One thing Shay was caught doing was deliberately short changing customers by taking portions of their winnings without them even knowing it (bear in mind, a lot of our customers were elderly men and women).
Gordan claims that he once opened the shop (after I and Shay had closed the night before) and noticed a cash difference but had been told not to say anything to me as I was under investigation and it could compromise it. He did apologise and I let it go.
Needless to say, Jorge and Shay were fired.
But it doesn’t end there.
Our team was small, including me there were a total of four people working at the store. As they hadn’t been able to hire anyone to replace me, Jorge and Shay’s termination meant Gordan was the only employee at the busiest shop in our area. Even if they’d been able to get other colleagues from the two other shops to help out, it wouldn’t have been enough to keep the shop open and manage the amount of customers. So they closed the location down until they could get the staff to run it.
It was at that point that Gordan handed in his resignation and applied for his job at my work. Meaning they had no one.
On top of that, Gordan’s girlfriend worked in the same shop as Janelle and she relayed that she was rarely at their store (in the other town) for the next few weeks before the Area Manager reported she was fired as well. No reason given to her.
I was later issued an apology for everything by the Area Manager and informed she (Janelle) was no longer with the company in an email some time later.
But SOMEHOW, it doesn’t end there.
With the store I worked at closed (this one being on the high street and where most people preferred to go), the only other location in town was the MUCH smaller location in the suburbs. The one where Kara worked. ALONE.
She suddenly received an influx of customers into her tiny store space and absolutely no support from other staff or upper management. Thus, for her own mental health (having already been overworked and underpaid, running an entire store by herself) she quit, meaning that location had to be closed down too.
All of this at the worst possible time, March, when the Cheltenham Festival was occurring. Which is a HUGE money maker for the gambling industry, even in a small town like ours.
An opportunity the three other bookies on the high-street reaped the benefits of instead of my old place, as the former customers went to them instead.
As it currently stands, just over a year later, both shops remain closed and I’m currently entering a job in cyber-security, the training for which I paid for with my current job.
Thanks for firing me dumbasses, you did me a favour.
(TL/DR: I was fired for false claims of theft. I complained to the higher ups. The real culprits lost their jobs, every shop in town closed down and they lost out on a bunch of money and customers)
《▪︎》《▪︎》《▪︎》《▪︎》《▪︎》《▪︎》《▪︎》《▪︎》 

UPDATE

This massively blew up, thanks for the support and everything x
Gordan and I got in touch with our old Area Manager and we were able to get a bit more information:
The security team rifled through about three years worth of footage after they found out about Jorge and Shay and have estimated that (in that period alone) they both stole nearly £4,000 through various means. The parent company also got involved and searched through years worth of their cash checks and till checks and noted plenty of irregularities.
The parent company persued criminal charges and the two were arrested but, as far as our Area Manager knows, the case is still ongoing. He thinks it's because they are still looking into how much they actually stole (as they've both been there a while, Jorge about 8 years and Shay 10 years). I doubt they'll have security footage of all that time, but I bet they're trying to get a more accurate figure to really nail them.
And in comes a new character: Tammy (obviously not her real name). She is an employee who was hired and fired shortly before I was, at the same store. She lasted just past her probation before she was fired, wait for it, for months worth of cash differences and false till checks she wasn't made aware of prior.
HOWEVER, her situation is FAR worse than mine. Tammy is in the process of suing the company for wrongful termination (alongside financial and emotional damages) as she was put under a lot of stress whilst in the job by Shay (who apparently left her to fend for herself and would refuse to step in when customers got aggressive) and then had a miscarriage shortly after her employment was terminated.
Our Area Manager doesn't know anything more, as it's escalated and gone way above his head and I doubt I'll be able to get any more information on it. But I doubt the company's doing too well on that front and I wish her the best.
Gordan and I are considering reaching out to some of the other fired employees (of which he can name a few who were terminated for similar reasons) to get their side of things. But it seems very clear that what Shay and Jorge were doing was going on for a long time and I was only the latest scapegoat.
Janelle, unfortunately, is perfectly fine as far as I'm aware. Her husband and her opened a taxi company several years ago and she seems to have just got more involved with that. I haven't seen her so I wouldn't know. But she was terminated for gross misconduct and for not following procedure, which is kinda what I expected.
And Kara, who our Area Manager actually really dislikes (but is lovely and did not deserve what she went through) is doing okay. I've messaged her and she and her partner recently bought a house. She also got a job as an Events Manager at a local historical site. She's happier there as she actually has people to talk to at work and isn't alone anymore.
(TL/DR: Jorge and Shay are being prosecuted after stealing thousands, a former employee is suing after going through the same thing as me (but worse), Janelle is fine and so is Kara.)
Thank you again for all the awards, updoots and support x
submitted by RowanWinterlace to ProRevenge [link] [comments]

Hi I made a very free and very large guide on investing using YouTube video and book recommendations with beginner / intermediate / advanced skill level tiers that I believe will set anyone up for investing success in the long term. Check it out and please lmk what you think!

Investing guide
Preface: Why I made this
Let’s start this guide off with an honest truth: I spend an unhealthy amount of time on Youtube. Whether it’s watching Japanese sumo championships, video games I don’t even play, or Mike Tyson absolutely annihilating anyone unlucky enough to box him: I love it all. Thankfully, some of my time has been put to good use. Over the past several years I have learned nearly everything I know about investing, almost exclusively through the platform, and that has changed my life. I have been investing in ETFs for the past 5 years, picking individual stocks for 2, and as of today (June 10, 2020) my portfolio is up over 60% overall. Investing, to me, is the path to financial freedom. The key to spending my life the way I desire and never needing to worry about money or slaving away at a job I don’t enjoy.
I’ve been interested in investing since high school but I only just started recently because I had no clue where to begin, and entering the investing world intimidated the hell out of me. The education system provided me next to nothing in terms of personal finance, and anyone actually talking about it seemed like some sleaze bag that wanted to sell me something.
I made this guide for anyone feeling that exact same way: I decided to slog through all the books and the hundreds of investment videos I have watched over the years to make a structured list of videos and personal notes that will give anyone, completely for free, the tools they need to begin investing and to succeed in creating wealth over the long term.
Disclaimer:
Getting through this guide will not be easy. At times it will suck, it will be boring, and it will be wildly time consuming. I have included many hours of videos and I expect you to watch each one. I want to be clear: If you cannot sit through a 45 minute video on how to learn to invest, then I would seriously reconsider investing at all. Patience is just as key in the markets as it is in learning new skills.
I encourage you to use this guide as an education tool, but not as the definitive answer for how to invest. It is undoubtedly prone to my personal bias and my style of investing, which may or may not not fit your own. Nothing in the investment world is gospel and it is imperative to develop your own strategies, to stay humble, and to continue educating yourself.
However, I do believe this guide should provide you with everything you need to begin investing and to be successful in the long term. Most, but not all, of the links provided reflect my own personal investment style, but occasionally I will present several different ideas and allow you to decide what is best for your own portfolio. Almost all of the linked videos are by amazing Youtubers that have tons of additional content, each of them with their own strategies, opinions, and expertise. Check them out.
If you decide you are ready to begin investing I have included my three brokerage recommendations at the bottom of the guide. Good luck!
Why should you invest?
Why Investing is the Best Way to Get Rich | Phil Town -
Essential video
Fresh Prince - If we so rich.... -
Uncle Phil explaining the worry free life investing can provide
Beginner
William Ackman: Everything You Need to Know About Finance and Investing in Under an Hour | Big Think -
This is a great overview of investing and finance taught by Bill Ackman, who recently made the most successful trade of all time: turning 27 million into 2.6 billion dollars.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRY9gEuoWLA&list=WL -
Broad beginner level investing video - what stocks are, where to buy them, how the buying process works, what brokerages to use, and strategies for protecting your money. This video contains a ton of value for the beginner investor.
Warren Buffett's Best Advice on Successful Investing -
Invest in what you know
4 Most Important Rules for Investing | Phil Town -
Buy what you understand
10 Ways Beginners in the Stock Market get SCREWED -
10 ways beginners fail in the market, and how to avoid them
Traditional and Roth IRAs | Simple Steps for a Retirement Portfolio Course -
Traditional / Roth IRA explained
Investing Basics: Bonds -
Bonds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixmevXJYLbE&list=WL&index=7&t=0s -
Focus on buying great companies with great fundamentals, do not base your buying and selling on short term news - over the long term you will be successful
Investing Won't Make You Rich (Probably) -
Temper your expectations for what investing is going to bring you - If you enter the market expecting to get rich you will most likely fail - Slow and steady returns can change your life overtime, but losing massive positions on gambling / chasing overhyped stocks can destroy your potential for compounding returns
Buffett's $1 Million Bet: Index Funds vs. Hedge Funds -
Hedge funds consistently underperform Index funds. Do not pay huge fees to “professional investors” that cannot even beat the market.
How To Become A Millionaire: Index Fund Investing For Beginners -
Index funds / ETF’s = easy diversification - consistent returns - little to no work involved
WARNING: The Index Fund Bubble -
A bubble may exist in Index funds / ETFs
This Is How Much My Wealthfront Returns Are After 4 Years -
At the bottom of this guide in How / Where to invest I have included my opinion on Wealthfront and using a robo advisors for building portfolios with little to no effort
Intermediate (How to pick individual stocks)
How to Read an Income Statement! - (with Amazon Example) -
How to read an income statement
Balance Sheet Explained for Beginners in 2019 - (Free Stock Market Education) -
How to read a balance sheet
How to Read a Cash Flow Statement - With Free Cash flow Formula -
How to read a cash flow statement
How to Value Stocks QUICKLY -
How to quickly value a stock using metrics from yahoo finance
Create Your Own Stock Tracker: Beginner Google Sheets Tutorial -
How to create your own personal stock tracker using google sheets or Excel. I use this to calculate my monthly dividend income and to create charts to visualize the overall percentage of income each stock position provides.
Why did GNUS Stock Crash? Time to Sell Genius? -
Example of a stock going up purely on speculation and not fundamentals. The market tends to do the opposite of what people believe - if everyone has the same information you do then just because you expect this to happen does not mean that it will. Do not follow the herd.
Should You Still Buy Stocks or Wait For The Next Recession/Crash? -
Recessionary signals to be wary of - but also realize there are always market bears - no one knows for sure what the market will do - We cannot time the market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-1GNzLUxWQ&list=PLZWbVSavQFXSU1EXjDM35DBZZ1lpF3ePe&index=77&t=0s -
Financial bubbles explained
Stock Multiples: How to Tell When a Stock is Cheap/Expensive -
P.E. / forward P.E. / value traps / limitations of using just one multiple to purchase a stock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbc3QLZiRSE&list=WL&index=13 -
Dividend growth stock investing and compound interest explained in great detail
How To Invest $10,000 Dollars For RIDICULOUS Dividend Income -
How to invest 10,000 into a dividend stock portfolio with varying levels of risk / passive income
Crash Course Economics -
This is an entire 35 video series - not required - but great material to understand
Places to do research
https://finance.yahoo.com -
Yahoo finance - great, free, resource for looking up specific stock information including balance sheet / income statement / cash flow / etc.
https://www.fastgraphs.com -
Fast Graphs - Paid graphing browser program that I personally use. Gives a great visualization of a companies price history in direct relation to their earnings. Great to use for profitable and growing businesses, because over the long term a stocks price tends to directly reflect the stocks earning potential.
Free trial for 2 weeks.
https://www.investopedia.com -
Investopedia stock market simulator - Invest in the real stock market, but with fake money in order to test strategies and simulate investing without actual risk. This is where I began investing, and also where I turned the initial 100k the simulator starts you with into 600k, which gives me a constant reason to cry.
Investopedia also has great, free, courses for investors and detailed explanations of market metrics that you may not understand —
for example: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp - their explanation of P.E. ratio, which is an imperative concept to understand.
I Will Teach You to be Rich --(An amazing book for everything personal finance related, highly recommended)--
The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America
Invest like Warren Buffett: Powerful Strategies for Building Wealth
University of Berkshire Hathaway
A Random Walk Down Wall Street
The Intelligent Investor
Rich Dad, Poor Dad
The Millionaire Next Door
Factfulness - Hans Rosleing —— Nearly everywhere the world is seeing dramatic economic improvements.
Siddhartha
Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future
https://www.reddit.com/financialindependence/top/ -
Reddit fire link - FIRE is a community of people seeking to gain financial independence through spending wisely and building passive income streams in order to retire early and enjoy their youth
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/ -
—A good example of the exact type of site / community you need to avoid.—
Advanced
How Short Selling Works -
Short selling explained — I do not recommend this. Shorting stocks carries infinite risk with limited reward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M2sIpD9t4Q&list=WL&index=12 -
Why day trading does not work
Why 80% Of Day Traders Lose Money -
Great message here against day trading but also regarding the importance of always staying humble, even when you are successful in the market.
High Frequency Trading (Explained) -
Explains HFT — When you day trade you are competing against multi trillion dollar industries which are using the most advanced technology on Earth, that can trade millions of stocks in a fraction of a second. Plain and simple you will not win in the long term.
Stock Options Explained -
How to trade options
PE RATIO EXPLAINED - HOW TO USE PRICE EARNINGS RATIO FOR STOCK MARKET DECISIONS -
A more in depth look at P/E ratio that can be used to scrutinize whether or not a companies management team are reporting accurate numbers
Enron - The Biggest Fraud in History -
Enron explained - Always be on the lookout for scams / bad management
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4b1D1vWRnc&list=WL&index=4&t=0s -
Practical example of the importance of good management with a focus on long term growth - not just short term profits
8 Steps to Research a Company to Invest in - Best Investment Series -
Advanced methods of researching stocks such as analyzing the 10k / management / earnings calls / etc
Understanding the Covid-19 economy / lessons learned from the crash
The COVID-19 Stock Market Rally - Why It Doesn't Mean We're Out of a Recession -
Covid 19 market rally does not indicate the recession is over
Is The Stock Market in FOMO Mode? Let’s Talk Serious... -
The danger of FOMO and entering a market disconnected from fundamentals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llslyXPu6wI&t=619s -
Quantitative easing and inflation explained / important to understand as the Fed pours trillions of dollars into the economy
How to Tell If a Stock/Company Can Weather a Downturn -
This video details how to get an in-depth look at a company's debts and obligations to determine their ability to weather an economic downturn. Covid has taught us that it is IMPERATIVE for a company to have cash on hand that can cover its short term debt obligations for a bare minimum of 1 quarter with no income. Some concepts in this video are pretty advanced, what I recommend is to —at least— know how much cash the company currently has on hand in comparison to their current debt. This can be done on yahoo finance by looking at the company's balance sheet.
If the company has significantly more debt than cash on hand then you need to figure out how much of that debt is short term (due within the next 12 months). If their cash on hand cannot cover that debt, then this company is an extremely risky investment. If this company is forced to shut down for any reason and cannot gain profitable revenue then in-order to avoid bankruptcy they will be required to take out more debt (which will be lent at extremely unfavorable rates) or to issue more shares to avoid bankruptcy. This issuance will dilute the share count and hurt current investors, also the issued shares will be sold at current market price which is likely to be a very low price for the company.
Bankruptcy totally wipes out the investor and your stock position will go to 0 as the company sells off its assets to pay off bond investors. If the company's assets value are above what they owe to bond holders then the remaining value will be distributed to shareholders.
The Cost of Share Dilution -
Share dilution explained
Should I invest now or wait?
A WARNING for ALL Investors -
Time in the market beats timing the market
The Best Investing Advice of 2020 -
Same concept - you cannot time the market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cqqfltv_cSI&list=WL&index=40&t=0s -
Examination of the global economy using manufacturing numbers to consider the possibility of market recovery / another crash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g32q6e3KZ5c&t=320s -
Presents the idea that holding dividend paying stocks and companies that continue to grow is more powerful than holding a cash position
Waiting to Invest is Costing You... A Lot -
Waiting to invest is costing you a lot - due to inflation and opportunity cost // The all important power of compounding
How / Where to invest
I only invest with three platforms, so these are all that I can speak on
Robinhood -
Platform I personally prefer. The layout is simple and easy to understand. Perfect for beginners and long term trading / options trading and fractional shares also available. —— IF —— you decide to invest, please use my invitation link. We will BOTH receive a random free stock and I would really appreciate it.
- redacted for post rules -
T. D. Ameritrade -
A more professional broker than Robinhood with high level tools, graphs, apps, analysis, etc to use. However the layout is much more complicated and difficult to understand. It is pretty essential to use a professional platform like this if you are short-term trading as their price action is much more accurate than Robinhood.
Wealthfront -
This is a robo-advisor that builds a custom portfolio depending on your long term financial outlook and overall risk tolerance. The portfolio it builds is extremely diversified and managed by high level algorithms to insure your portfolio is properly balanced and not vulnerable to excess tax loss on realized gains. First 5000 managed for no fees. I love Wealthfront and the instant, diverse portfolio that they provide which requires 0 work or attention from you personally - my portfolio with them is around 4 years old and currently up 40%.
Using my link will give us both an additional 5000 dollars managed for no fees, and again, I would really appreciate it.
- redacted for post rules -
DISCLAIMER
All information and data within this guide are solely for informational purposes. I make no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, suitability or validity of any information. I will not be liable for any errors, omissions, losses, injuries or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided AS IS with no warranties, and confers no rights. I will not be responsible for the accuracy of material that is linked on this site. Because the information herein is based on my personal opinion and experience, it should not be considered professional financial investment advice or tax advice. The ideas and strategies that I provide should never be used without first assessing your own personal/financial situation, or without consulting a financial and/or tax professional. My thoughts and opinions may also change from time to time as I acquire more knowledge. I am not an investment professional. These are, as discussed above, solely my thoughts and opinions.
submitted by lord_v0ldemort to investing [link] [comments]

Will the New Orleans Saints win OVER/UNDER 10.5 games? By University Stats Prof!

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
1. Introduction
The Saints secured the #2 seed in last year’s playoffs following a great 13-3 season, despite Drew Brees missing five games.
Unfortunately, for the third straight season, the Saints were eliminated in dramatic fashion. After suffering through the “Minneapolis Miracle” in 2018 and the non-call on a critical blatant interference penalty against the Rams in 2019, the Saints lost a 26-20 overtime thriller at home against the Vikings. Once again, officials were questioned when the replay showed Kyle Rudolph possibly pushed P.J. Williams on the game-winning touchdown.
Bad luck just continues to stick to this franchise. Will it be THE year where they shake it all off?

2. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the New Orleans Saints are expected to win 10.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
- Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
- Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
- Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
- Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
- Count the proportion of seasons where the Saints won more or less than 10.5 games.
Here are the results

Estimated Probability Sportsbook Odds ROI
OVER 10.5 Wins 52% Fan Duel +100 +4.0%
UNDER 10.5 Wins 48% William Hill -110 -8.4%
Tip: Bet OVER 10.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +4.0%
Rank: 30th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -108
Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

3. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
QUARTERBACKS (QB)
Drew Brees is simply unbelievable on the field, and a wonderful human being. He donated $5 million to deliver meals to needy people in the Louisiana state. A great gesture from him and his wife.
Will he ever slow down or what? He is now 41 years old, but his numbers have kept impressing. He has completed at least 70% of his passes in each of his past four seasons, which is jaw-dropping! He led the league in that category last year.
His TD-to-INT ratio has also improved of late. Over the past two years, he has thrown 59 TD passes versus just 9 picks.
Backup QB Teddy Bridgewater left for Carolina during the offseason. Who can blame him? He deserved a chance to be a starter in this league once again. He’s joining a much weaker team, though. He did a very good job when Brees went down to a thumb injury.
For a moment, the backup QB became Taysom Hill, who has been the jack-of-all-trades in this offense. He can throw, he can run, he can catch.
However, it’s unclear who gets the #2 role following the signing of Jameis Winston, also known as “The Turnover Machine.”
Winston threw for 5,109 yards last year, which turned out to be the 8th-most in league history. However, the 30 interceptions (!!!) and five lost fumbles put a big blemish on his 2019 season. A 60.7% completion rate wasn’t all that great, either. He has great weapons to work with, including stud receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Playing for the Saints could end up being the best thing that has ever happened to Winston. He will get great tips from Drew Brees who, unlike Winston, doesn’t turn the ball over often. The former Buc has a great arm and he is in his mid-twenties; not all hope is lost for the former #1 overall pick out of Florida State.

RUNNING BACKS (RB)
Alvin Kamara’s numbers have been incredibly steady since entering the league in 2017. He has rushed for 728, 883 and 797 yards during that time frame, while catching exactly 81 balls (!!!) in each of these three seasons. His TD output was his lowest of his career though, as he only scored six total touchdowns in 2019.
It is worth noting, though, that he battled through injuries last year. He had more trouble breaking tackles down the stretch. He will be back at 100% when the 2020 season begins.
Latavius Murray is nice luxury as a backup running back. He picked up almost as many rushing yards as Kamara, while posting a nice 4.4 yards-per-carry average. This figure has never been lower than 3.9 in any of his six years in the NFL, which is remarkable.
Kamara missed two games last year; in those games, Murray racked up 150 and 157 total yards with a couple of touchdowns in each of those contests. The Saints will be in good hands if Kamara gets hurt.

WIDE RECEIVERS (WR)
Michael Thomas broke Marvin Harrison’s single-season record for receptions by catching 149 balls. He caught a minimum of four passes in all games and cleared the 100-receiving yard mark on 10 occasions.
Thomas was truly dominant. What’s even more incredible is he caught 149-of-185, which amounts to a mind-boggling 80.5% catch rate (an unbelievable percentage given the high volume).
With Thomas and Kamara catching so many passes, that didn’t leave many targets to the other receivers. Ted Ginn’s play seemed to drop off quite a bit, as he caught 30-of-56 balls thrown his way. He has his second-worst PFF grade over his 13-year career. At 35 years old, you have to wonder whether he has some gas left in the tank or not. I don’t believe he can rebound in 2020.
Meanwhile, Tre’Quan Smith was a disappointment last year. He did catch 5 TD passes for the second straight year after being selected in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft, but catching 18 passes for 234 yards won’t be anyone very excited.
As if the team needed more playmakers, they went on to get Emmanuel Sanders who started the year in Denver before getting traded to San Francisco.
Sanders suffered a brutal Achilles injury in 2018, but that did not prevent him from having a very nice 2019 season. He totaled 66 receptions for 869 yards and 5 TDs. He’s a nice get considering Ginn is getting older and Smith has yet to pan out.

TIGHT ENDS (TE)
Jared Cook is another aging player who has done surprisingly well. He hauled in 43 passes for 705 yards, which was not that close from being career-highs. However, his 9 TD receptions and his 16.4 yards-per-catch average were his career best. He started the season slowly, but seemed to develop a great chemistry with Drew Brees down the stretch.
Josh Hill is not much of a receiver, but he does the job as a blocker. He’s been with the team for seven years and 2019 was his best season in terms of receptions (25) and receiving yards (226). He is not a threat to take away Cook’s number one role.
The team traded four picks in order to select Adam Trautman out of Dayton in the third round of this year’s draft. His receiving production increased in each of his four years in college; it culminated with a 70-916-14 receiving line in 11 starts. Wow, 14 TDs in 11 games?!?
The only question surrounding Trautman is: can he handle a much higher level of competition than what he faced with Dayton? He could become a starter in 2021, considering Jared Cook’s age.

OFFENSIVE LINE (OL)
This is an exceptional group and all players are returning for the 2020 season, which does not bode well for opposing defenses.
Center Erik McCoy was picked in the second round of the draft last year and he competed with Nick Easton and Cameron Tom during training camp. McCoy won the job and finished as the number 4 center out of 37 guys, based on PFF ratings. I think it’s fair to say it was a great season for him.
Left tackle Terron Armstead made it to the Pro Bowl for the second consecutive year. He has received good marks in each of his seven seasons with the Saints. Drew Brees can rest easy with his blindside being protected by Armstead.
At right tackle the Saints have Ryan Ramczyk. PFF made him the #1 tackle in the entire league with a 90.9 grade last year. He has improved in each of his three seasons and has started all games but one.
At guard, New Orleans has Larry Warford and Andrus Peat. Warford was the 8th-best guard in the NFL according to ProFootballFocus ratings, while Peat was the only guy to struggle on this offensive line. Indeed, he finished at spot #70.
We observe a weird tendency regarding Peat. His PFF grades in his first three seasons were 68.0, 71.5 and 68.3, which is decent. Then, his marks took a huge dip in 2018: an abysmal 39.8. He followed it up with a 48.5 grade last year. The team doesn’t seem too concern about his level of play since they re-signed him to a lucrative five-year, $57.5 million contract.
Taking center Cesar Ruiz in the first round last April was a bit surprising. New Orleans already has a great center with McCoy. Head coach Sean Payton already claimed that right guard Larry Warford will have to compete for his job with either Ruiz or McCoy. Even though Warford played well last year, he is entering the final year of his contract.
For your information, Ruiz did not allow a single sack as a junior with Michigan last year. He also does a good job run blocking.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
My opinion won’t be popular, but I do see a downgrade here. Sure, returning pretty much the entire 2019 lineup is great, but I’m wary of a few things.
First, the age factor. Brees is 41 years old and your body gets hurt more easily when you reach your forties. You can’t deny he has a higher likelihood of getting injured this season. If that happens, losing Teddy Bridgewater is going to hurt the offense, although Winston might pick up the slack if he can cut down on the turnovers.
Jared Cook, Emmanuel Sanders and Ted Ginn are also getting up there in age. Also, how in the world could you expect Michael Thomas to play at a higher level than last year? He is much more likely to regress than to improve upon his 2019 performance.
Finally, the offensive line did not suffer many injuries last season, except Andrus Peat who missed six games, but he was the weakest link on the line anyway. I don’t wish them bad luck, but one of their top four guys could easily get hurt, due to the physical nature of the game.
The Saints scored the third-highest number of points last year, and I’ll cautiously put them in the #5 to #8 spot.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small Downgrade


4. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN (DL)
Signing a contract extension with David Onyemata was a priority for the organization. They did just that during the offseason. The team clearly likes him, despite a mediocre 55.3 PFF grade last year (he finished as the number 97 DL out of 114 qualifiers).
Sheldon Rankins is a former first-round pick who had a breakout 2018 campaign, which included a career-high 8 sacks. He was much quieter last year.
Rankins tore his Achilles’ in early 2019, and landed on injured reserve in December 2019 after coming close to tearing the other one. That’s a major question mark since such injuries are always tricky for football players.
Malcom Brown played close to 50% of the snaps last year. After spending four years in New England as a former first-rounder, he had a decent first year in New Orleans. He’s more effective defending the run than he is rushing the passer (he has recorded just two sacks in the past two years).
Shy Tuttle is more of a rotational player. His rookie season as an undrafted free agent exceeded expectations and he clearly deserves a shot to be back this year.

DEFENSIVE ENDS (DE) / EDGE (ED)
The Saints have a fantastic duo with Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, two former 1st round picks.
Jordan set a career-high with 15.5 sacks last year, after posting 12 and 13 sacks the previous two seasons. He’s an incredibly tough guy; can you believe he hasn’t missed a single game throughout his nine-year professional career? That’s phenomenal!
Davenport took a nice forward leap in his sophomore year. His PFF grade went up from 69.7 to 84.1. According to this grading system, Davenport was the 18th-best edge defender out of 107 guys.
Trey Hendrickson provides good depth for the Saints. He has shown improvement in each of his first three years in the league. He sacked opposing QBs on 4.5 occasions last year, after racking up just two in his first two years. The 25-year old is primed for another leap in 2020.
After a promising rookie season, Mario Edwards has been released a couple of times. He works as a rotational pass-rusher; he played 28% of the snaps last year. He’s been bothered by neck and hip injuries throughout his first five years in the league.

LINEBACKERS (LB)
Demario Davis was exceptional in all facets of the game last year. He played so well that he earned the #1 spot out of 89 LBs based on the PFF grading system.
He seems unlikely to repeat his 2019 performance, though. His PFF marks never exceeded 63 during his first five years. They went up to 73.7 and 75.1 in 2017 and 2018 before exploding to an astounding 90.4 last year. Entering his age-31 campaign, I find it hard to believe he could duplicate his success.
A.J. Klein’s career has been a roller-coaster ride. He’s had up-and-down years. Most recently, he had horrible 2016, 2017 and 2019 seasons, but above-average years in 2015 and 2018. He signed with Buffalo, so the Saints won’t need to deal with his inconsistencies anymore.
Is Kiko Alonso ready to embrace a bigger role in this defense? The answer is unclear. He played fairly well last year after two straight dreadful seasons in Miami, but his health is an issue. He tore his ACL during the playoff loss to the Vikings. That required the third ACL surgery of his career, which leaves some doubt about whether his quickness will be affected or not.
Considering the lack of depth at the position, drafting Zack Baun in the third round made sense. The former Badger has a high chance of starting right away. He collected 19.5 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks as a senior. He’s a bit undersized for the position, which means he could potentially struggle against the run but he’s a fierce pass rusher. Many mock drafts had him going in Round 2, so it seems like a good value pick that also fits a need.

CORNERBACKS (CB)
Eli Apple was let go during the offseason. He’s been nothing short of a disappointment since being selected as the No. 10 overall pick in 2016. He’s fine against the run, but his covering skills have been below standard.
Strangely enough, Marshon Lattimore’s PFF grades have decreased every year: 86.1 as a rookie first-round pick in 2017, 78.5 in his sophomore season and 65.6 last year. Granted, a hamstring injury limited him in 2019.
Lattimore picked off 5 passes in his rookie season, then just three over the past two years. He does have the potential to make it back among the best corners in the league.
P.J. Williams was primarily used as a slot corner last year, and things didn’t go so well. Just like Lattimore, his PFF grades have dipped every year. He finished as the 100th-bets CB out of 112 players.

SAFETIES (S)
Marcus Williams enjoyed a very successful rookie season before being the victim of the sophomore slump. However, he came back super strong last year. PFF ranked him as the third-best safety in the league, only behind Minnesota’s Anthony Harris and Denver’s Justin Simmons. He has a knack for big plays, as shown by his 10 career interceptions, one TD and two forced fumbles.
New Orleans lost its other starting safety, Vonn Bell, in the free agency market. His coverage skills were below-average, but he was one of the best in the business defending the run.
The team figures to replace him with Malcolm Jenkins, formerly of the Philadelphia Eagles. He is seven years older than Bell, but he’s a proven veteran.
After five rocky seasons with the Saints during the 2009-2013 period, Jenkins had six consecutive good seasons in Philly. Now back with the team that drafted him 11 years ago, Saints fans are crossing their fingers he can keep up his nice level of play. Last year, Jenkins was the 32nd-best safety in the NFL based on PFF rankings.
I just don’t understand the length of Jenkins’ deal: a four-year deal with a 32-year old guy? Really?
The Saints traded up during the 2019 draft to secure the rights to Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in the 4th round. He showed promise in his rookie season with very decent grades, especially against the run. He played 51% of the snaps and picked up his first interception and forced fumble of his career.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
The Saints allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards in the league last year. That seems unlikely to happen again in 2020. Rankins’ health concerns me. I don’t believe Onyemata is that good. And Demario Davis’ play is extremely likely to regress after an unexpected phenomenal 2019 season.
As for the pass defense, I expect similar production as last year. Plugging Malcolm Jenkins instead of Vonn Bell at safety seems like an upgrade to me. However, losing Eli Apple is hardly good news. He was “okay” last season, but he had potential and he still needs to be replaced. Hopefully, plan B is not P.J. Williams because he does not appear to be the answer.
New Orleans finished 13th in points allowed last year. I expect a small drop, perhaps to a spot ranging between 15 and 19.
Final call (2020 vs 2019) : Small downgrade
submitted by David-MJ to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

My[28M] GF[45F] feels insecure and expresses it as anger toward me

I started the relationship around February, and the bulk of the time I've know my girlfriend (Who I'll call Y) has been during the pandemic. We saw each other and had a few dates. At the time, I had plans to move to California for my work. I thought it would be a good platform for career development, and have rosy expat dreams about getting out of my shitty city. Also, I'd just had a breakup from a long distance relationship with someone I loved that got cancer. The old GF downgraded us from a long-distance couple to long-distance just-friends. Given that, I wasn't in the stablest of moods and said :
"Look, I'm not looking for a very serious relationship. I'm going to be gone this summer, so I just want something temporary and mutually beneficial." She looked a little crestfallen, but told me that she had a 13 year old daughter and still lived with her divorced husband (alcoholic, 75M), so she wasn't expecting very much from a relationship either. We both perked up a little and went to watch a couple movies, one thing led to another and I fingered her in the movie theater. (lol)
The pandemic hit and I had been dieting/jogging a little much. My immune system was beat up and I got some kind of viral meningitis. I couldn't confirm that it was our friend Covid-19, but it knocked me on my ass for a couple weeks. I couldn't move much, and Y was concerned out of her mind for me. She bought groceries and talked me through it via text (I refused to see her for a couple weeks, just in case it was Covid after all).
I got better (and have actually been smashing my old PRs on running lately), and had to reconsider my move to California because of what a hilarious flaming garbage pile the US has become lately (lol, sorry y'all). Those plans were rescheduled to (nominally) December. In the mean time, I began to take Y a little more seriously because I frankly wasn't used to someone being so kind to me. A lot of my previous relationships were underscored by very toxic fights and jealousy that left me feeling kind of hunted.
But... with a closer relationship come closer issues. She began menopause, which kind of firmly tables the possibility of having children. I want kids, and it's an issue that I feel strongly enough about to call a dealbreaker in the longer term. She also decided to rent her own apartment separate from her child and divorced husband, a decision that I firmly endorsed anyway.
As we got closer together, facades fade. I also used to be a problematic drinker (sober coming on 2 years now with the running), and we've begun to have arguments centered around a few topics: That we both text Exes, that I schedule exercise when she would prefer to see me, that she feels inadequate due to the age difference, that we can't have kids, and that I'm still planning to move to California (when y'all put out that dang garbage fire) and ending the relationship.
I've memorized those topics because she will recite them (almost in order) when she comes home tired from work. Outside of these windows, I'm really content with the relationship. We work together well when we're setting up furniture in her new apartment, we communicate well about finances (mostly staying in our own lane), the sex has its ups and downs (she'll have difficulty cumming due to the minor hormone storm she's experiencing and despite myself I'll go soft if we've been arguing or she's on top too long. We both get off something like half the time and have sex a few times a week).
The Ex-texting is... amusing. I text my old long distance girl because her language skills are kind of shit and I help edit emails so that she can maintain employment (and thus health insurance) in the US. I'm not texting because I'm entertaining a possibility of a relationship, but mostly because it feels like I can do a little good and prevent someone from going under and drowning from a medical bill.
On her part, she'll also text a long-distance Ex as well as a local playboy that asks her out every couple of weeks under some premise or other. She has informed both of them that she's in a relationship, but it doesn't seem to stop them from trying.
The odd part is that I'm fine with her content, but she's NOT fine with mine. I don't really view the guys as threats, and I don't enjoy riling myself over jealous musings anyway. But any time I mention something benign like "I edited her resume last tuesday because her contract work is up soon", it'll turn into full-blown accusations of me wanting a "younger girl" and "I bet she's prettier than me" and "maybe I should go with the other local guy that's interested in me". I've taken to just not mentioning it because I don't always want to be in a fight over her insecurities. Regardless, she'll pepper her everyday chatter with "I feel ugly today" or "You should go find a younger pretty one after you're done with me". If I don't interrupt with a compliment or denying an accusation, she'll work herself into full-on argument-mode and justify it toward the end with "I can't give you kids anyway" or "We'll be done at the end when you go to California anyway".
The other day, I waited at her apartment for delivery (I can work remotely, she can't). I cooked dinner, and texted her that after I finished work I'd be go on a run for a couple hours so she might be there alone for an hour or so. I got an "okay", set the stew on to simmer and went jogging. Apparently, the playboy had found a girlfriend and texted the fact to her while saying "but I still think you're sexy and would be with you if I had the chance". This was "as revenge" because she had mentioned to him that she had me as a boyfriend. She felt hurt and jealous, and decided to take it out on me when I got back from my jog.
I was greeted with how the stew tasted like shit, and how dare I go jog for an hour and leave her alone by herself in the apartment when she wanted to see me (she had not mentioned this that day). Followed by a re-iteration of all the arguments I've mentioned so far. She admitted fault and made up for it later, and I said I'd work on the stew (lol). I want to be clear that this argument reached a satisfactory conclusion from my perspective, but that there are some underlying currents here that I'm not sure how to navigate.
She will often conflate me spending time on my hobby with me not wanting to spend time with her. She has no hobby, because she's used to working overtime and taking care of her daughter. I can't count the number of times the following has happened:
"I'm going to jog for a couple hours after work"
"Oh that's good, you'll be able to focus on jogging and won't have to spend time with me/we won't have sex as often"
"Just because I want to jog, doesn't mean I want to spend time away from you. I can schedule the jog and we can meet after like normal"
"How are you going to do both?"
"Look, if you want to spend time with me then you can ask ahead of time and I can change the time that I do my jogging at. I'm not super rigid, it's just scheduling."
It just blows my mind. I don't know how to continue the discussion with someone that doesn't accept that I can sequence two tasks in a row and gets pissed off/starts re-framing the premise of the relationship when they're left alone for an hour. Nevermind that she's passive-aggressively trying to get me to punt on my exercise (which I use as a tool to keep sober) to spend time cuddling with her. If I replace "jogging" with "drinking" in our conversation, then I can see a very different argument that she was perhaps acclimated to having with her ex husband. But jogging is a really positive thing, and doesn't have the negative externalities that she's used to from the alcoholic guy she was with previously.
This forms the backdrop to her wanting to escalate the relationship. She'll mention little things after she cooks like "Do you like my cooking? I make a pretty good wife don't I?" Occasionally after the jogging rows, she'll drop a gem like "well it wouldn't be so bad to jog if you moved into the apartment with me".
Now. What do I want from this relationship and from you guys? I'm not sure about when I'm moving, only that I will when the time is appropriate. As long as I'm here, I don't mind the relationship with Y because I'm pretty content with the positive sides of it. In the long term, we WILL break up because I intend to have kids and she can't do that. I don't want to be dogged over my hobbies or baited into marriage/co-habitation while I'm here because it makes the inevitable separation more annoying.
I want to know if it's possible for me to help her with her feelings of jealousy toward my exes and how I spend my time. I know it annoys me, but it's got to be tearing her apart inside if she's expressing it the way she is. And I'm not exactly helping by having a "timer" on the relationship, after which she'll be back to being alone anyway. I know the temptation to "rip the bandaid off" is playing a big role here, but that I was upfront about it and have been the whole time.
tl;dr: girlfriend is insecure and overly jealous of my time and texting, and expresses it using baggage from her old shitty relationship. How do I communicate that I don't like the passive-aggressive jabs and self-deprecation in a way that sees change?
submitted by DiggleDootBROPBROPBR to relationships [link] [comments]

The history of the Neptunia Reddit community, it's moderators, it's drama, how it got where it is, and how the divide is worsening in the shadows, and why the oldest burned bridges have had enough!

Not many of you recognize my username and honestly even if you knew my old accounts name it hasn’t had much meaning in the Neptunia fanbase for years ever since tiger_wsquared turned the subreddit over to Soah1086 , an action many of us who were around the subreddit during its inception and had been active among anime and gaming subreddits in general refer to to this day as “Gamindusti’s Original Sin”.
Since that time me and a few others found our new place in the Neptunia Reddit community. We looked, we analyzed, we profiled, we investigated as much as we could from the shadows recording the history of the subreddit and it’s ever increasing decline and how it correlated to the ever growing toxicity of the Neptunia fanbase at large. We knew a day may come where this history would need to be made public, when actions worse than what Soah1086 did to Rajaxx came from his moderation team and people needed the truth. Unfiltered from personal relations with any current users or moderators and gathered from a truly unbiased aspect. That day appears to have finally come.
Like most niche subreddits the beginnings of Gamindustri were rather humble. tiger_wsquared simply wanted a place for Neptunia fans to go on Reddit and looked to provide one. tiger_wsquared started by posting links to articles and news about the series but he also went out of his way to announce the creation of this subreddit. He posted it on gaming , JRPG, I personally found the subreddit the day he posted a very chill friendly post about it on nipponichi.
Despite being the creator and sole moderator of the subreddit Tiger still spoke to people like equals. Casual, Friendly, but still fulfilling his role as a moderator when needed. To Tiger he was a fan and member of the community first, moderator second.
tiger_wsquared was then contacted by soah1086 offering to help him out and redo the CSS for the subreddit. While since his departure from active Reddit user newer users of the platform aren’t aware soah1086 was always a heavily controversial person among anime Reddit communities. Soah1086 was one of two Reddit users among anime communities known to be a serious subreddit hoarder, offering to moderate subreddits he didn’t care about and do their CSS in hopes of patting his own ego. Throughout his time on Reddit Soah1086 always showed a series of anger management issues, aggressive impulses, and the shady practice of allowing drama in his favor while censoring any drama that painted him ill. He would also go to other anime subreddits he didn’t moderate and purposely try and stir their drama further. Soah1086 was referred to by many as “The Drama Boner”.
Not long after another Moderator was added to the mix Rajaxx, A moderator that took up the persona of Purple Heart. I know to this day a lot of rumors circulate about Purple Heart and no two are the same, they all contradict each other and not even Soah1086 keeps his story straight. Allow me to go over what happened with Rajaxx in detail from someone who went through and witnessed all that first hand.
The time of Rajaxx’s mod term was the golden age of the subreddit. Believe it or not Fanart wasn’t super common then. We had people posting Discussions, what if scenarios, game mods, fanfictions, trying to organize gaming events with each other, reviews, analysis, theories, roleplay threads. The community was unusually active, more so than it is now despite a smaller size, involved, a true sense of comradery.
By this time tiger_wsquared had begun distancing himself from the subreddit due to his real life struggles leaving soah1086 the defacto head moderator. Rajaxx had a large number of ideas that the community at large not only supported but would have created a more active, involved, positive, friendly, and united community but soah1086 constantly refused because it wasn’t what he would do, it was too much work for volunteers, none of his other subreddits do that, etc. soah1086 wasn’t even willing to give rajaxx’s ideas the benefit of the doubt.
A moderators role is to unite, try and promote content variation, and to do whats best for people other than themselves but this never aligned with soah1086’s style of moderation. Round table, a system that prioritized the moderator teams happiness above all else. See outside of just Gamindustri any community Soah1086 has had any decision making power outside the CSS has become toxic, divided, and drama ridden. Even the two subreddits he devoted the most time to because he actually cared about that series for once, fatestaynight and grandorder have grown into the most painfully ironic anime communities in Reddit history. With fatestaynight having a community that hates their moderators for being toxic pricks, and grandorder having such strict posting guidelines people often choose to post n fatestaynight instead. Someone who moderated under soah1086 on fatestaynight once described soah1086’s management style as “doing as little as possible, finding a good eroge that all the moderators like, using it to cum on a biscuit and having the community be glad you gave them a snack that month”. He is also the kind of person who publicly stated the reason he never did a second season of PeanutButterGamers hardcore is because he didn’t want people laughing at him, above all else he cared about being on a higher caste than anyone else.
Around this time the Gamindustri steam group was a thing. Rajaxx wanted to partner with it and make it official, a sentiment that was shared by most of the active community. Soah1086’s stance was “If we aren’t at the helm, it can’t be official”. Rajaxx made a post about it hoping the words and wishes of the community would be enough to move soah1086’s heart. Soah1086 was livid, Rajaxx showed his loyalty lied more with the community than it did the moderator team and to soah1086 that was a big no no. To every community Soah1086 had helmed the modus operandi was “your loyalty should be your fellow moderators first, close friends second, with whatever is left over being thrown to the community I guess”.
soah1086 took down Rajaxx’s post, said he was going to have a “long talk” with tiger_wsquared about Rajaxxs “position” and it seemed like less than the time it took us all to blink Rajaxx was demodded with soah1086 trying to spread a bunch of lies about him.
The entire subreddit was in a state of utter shock. The large majority of the community loved Rajaxx, he was more than just a moderator, he was one of them. People were either silent, confused and asking questions (while Soah1086 promised full transparency he didn’t provide it), and a very small group of rather toxic childish users who were scared of rajaxx because his ideas for a more united community would put them at risk of getting banned or seeing him as a threat to their own manipulative shady ambitions. soah1086 gave the toxic element a rule exempt card allowing them to break subreddit rules and sitewide policy when bashing Rajaxx while removing and censoring everything in his favor or that brought question to the actions taken by soah1086 and their nature or disapproving of them.
Rajaxx collected all the evidence he could of soah1086’s shady asshole and manipulative behavior, much of which was publicly facing, but soah1086 removed it and allowed more bashing. More and more of us gathering to Rajaxx’s defense did the same but soah1086 would censor anything that wasn’t 100% in the moderators favor, something his mod teams had a long history of doing when they saw their actions were unjust.
The demodding of rajaxx was like a light switch. So many of us left because of it with no intent on returning until someone came into control of the community that’s loyalty was more to the community than the happiness circle jerk of their fellow moderators. Fanart quickly came on the rise because without a moderator that acted as an equal promoting content diversity people just wanted the quick karma grabs. NSFW was on the rise which created heated arguments about kinks. Users divided into sub groups that were always in a constant power struggle against one another, toxicity battling it out while unable to see the wrong in their own actions and trying to solely put the blame on others. Manipulative power games over status and resentment became the norm. If you can find posts from when Rajaxx was still around and compare it to the community after you will see what I mean.
This drama inspired me to enter a career in law enforcement.
This at least did make me decide to follow a career in law enforcement so I could fight corruption and protect the innocent.
The subreddit was mostly left in the hands Histoire (aka kitsunedon ) and White Heart (aka luminous083) who were not bad moderators in their own right but they were honest, fair, and unbiased even though a bit too passive to break down the walls soah1086 had built they would at least prevent things from getting terribly worse. Anytime something happened on the subreddit soah1086’s stance was “It’s just old Purple Heart trying to cause shit again” despite the fact Rajaxx had resigned the fandom entirely by that point, overtime the rumors that spread turned even people Rajaxx had worked with and spoke to daily who knew he only ever had good intentions against him. This was something we had seen on other subreddits happen to people who opposed Soahs way of doing things but I digress.
As the sub numbers grew mod applications went up again and the moderators that were chosen were great picks. Neptune (Aka SuspicousScout) and Uzume (aka Willtheyordle ) while they both had their issues with proper mentoring they could have reached the uniting style rajaxx had but when you look to Soah1086 like he knows how to manage a paper bag you are not going to realize potential.
As kistunedon disappeared one day without any word or explanation willtheyordle picked up the random discussion posts kitsunedon had begun, SuspicousScout showed a level of personality, flair, and style almost reaching the level of rajaxx with willtheyordle just a few steps behind. willtheyordle wasn’t very active at first I would like to note.
SuspicousScout hoping to help bring the community together again around the series created the Gamindustri Discord server. Now it is important to note, for profiling actions taken by the mod team both before and after this that SuspicousScout did not fully consult their mod team about doing so, but it wasn’t an issue because it fit Soah1086’s mantra of to be recognized we must be in control.
Overtime SuspicousScout became frustrated with the lack of content diversity feeling users didn’t care about the series and just saw the series as a billboard for sex dolls. After making a poll about what people felt and being dissatisfied with the results SuspicousScout did the respectful thing and stepped down.
With Luminous083 having finished his schooling and no longer able to commit the large amount of commitment needed to moderate a subreddit such as gamindustri he distanced himself from the community leaving just WillTheYordle as the sole moderator to keep the rapid toxic selfish fanbase the actions of Soah1086 had created in check.
It was around this time the gamindustri moderator team began getting complaints about the Discord server. Now let me preface with this, the people who came to run the Gamindustri Discord weren’t innocent but nor were they guilty, they did some things that were very out of line but those things were not as bad as what the current moderator team did both before and after becoming moderators and nowhere near the extent to what Soah1086 had done during his entire Reddit history.
However with SuspicousScout no longer being the one in charge it no longer falls under the mantra of we need to be in charge to be recognized. Soah1086 smeared them the same way he had Rajaxx and if you loo at his behavior all throughout you have to half wonder if he was getting off to the drama.
In the aftermath of this new moderator applications were brought up and the new moderators were picked by Soah1086 personally. The picks were nonsensical and makes you wonder if Soah1086 is properly medicated.
Atanigan (Million Arthur)’s application was written like a champ, amon the top three moderator applications in the subreddits history. However he didn’t seem to have much care for the subreddit, after being moderated it seemed he’d go months without really doing anything while pooring his heart into his Discord server, Gamindustri Standard. Randoomguy666 (Nepgear) was a controversial pick due to his history involving him denouncing the community’s toxicity and porn obsession prior, people demanded he be removed but he was not and willtheyordle and soah1086 pleaded ignorance and having never been aware of his history despite both of them having publicly acknowledged it prior. Ryzer28 (Vert) was a lurker whos application showed no self confidence, drive, or real passion, to this day Ryzer28 is one of only two moderators in the subreddits history not a single accomplishment can be attributed to. Out of these three the one that objectively was the best pick was the most controversial one, randoomguy666 . Despite issues during his term he had done a decent blend of balancing commitment to the mod team and commitment to the fanbase. He was ever present, smiling, trying to help users and encourage activity by seeding content and events. Not to say he didn’t have his issues, as a prominent member of the Nepgear subgroup he was subject to the typical arguments with the Neptune or Plutia fans (Why is it Planeptune has all the infighting?) but yet during his term he has more accomplishments and positive actions attributed to him than most, easily reaching the top 4 most accomplished moderators in the subreddits long history.
In the midst of his controversy another new moderator was brought on a few days later, wwlink55 . Wwlink55 seemed more committed to his role as a moderator of the subreddit than Atanigan or Ryzer28, but far less so than Rajaxx, Luminous083 , Kitsunedon , SuspicousScout, WillTheYordle , and now Randoomguy666 and his habit of being very cold, sterile, and business like was and to this day still is a very unpopular approach among users who always responded better to the flair, personality, and having fun with it.
When that seemed to have been dying down the account PM_ME_YOUR_DARKSINS was subject to a statement by dracesquire announcing they had taken their own life. To this day there are conflicting reports to if that actually happened or not but I don’t think we will ever know at this point.
It was at this point we had the NSFW ban attempt of summer 2018, objectively speaking the subreddit at that time did need NSFW restrictions but not to go so hard and fast. Despite the community's hard objection to it multiple different methods were tried before heavily reduced to just “extreme NSFW”. Some of these included a single thread for all NSFW content, or just cold turkey. This event period was so extreme that it spawned the spin-off subreddit Gamindustrir18island where users were given free reign to anti-circlejerk on the gamindustri mod team, and for a period of a couple of days caused Neptunia to be opened up from its ever closed status.
Amidst the variety of various subreddit events being hosted by Randoomguy666 came what all the moderators admitted was his brainchild, The Miss Gamindustri Pageant. The event was quite popular and successful but there was some Drama towards the end. Mostly related to accusations of rigging, the Neptune, Nepgear, and Noire sub groups seemed to be the most vocal members of this little spat and as a member of the Nepgear subgroup Randoomguy666 faced a lot of flack for it.
Towards the beginning of 2019 moderator applications went up once more. Overall most of the applications were extremely lackluster, with only a few really being of note. HCLegend, Legend1nfamous , and the_seraph1.
Among the two new moderators were the_seraph1 (Purple Sister), and sleepyviewing (Gehaburn). These picks did carry a bit of controversy of their own by people accusing of character bias since most moderators seemed either to not care about the subreddit or pooring all their energy into the discord server owned by Atanigan giving the image Randoomguy666 was the end all be all. A prime example of this was for quite awhile nopani made a constant string of memes mocking this fact.
Despite it this was promising, sleepyviewings hyperlurker status kept him a bit of an unknown, but the_seraph1 was promising. He had only been around the subreddit a couple of months preventing any sub group from properly taking root, he was capable of memeing and joking, while also serious and professional, seeded any type of content that was on the decline and hosted multiple events regularly, even was the first moderator to get something to make the waters of reddits loli rule less murky something that bigger subreddits failed and and thanked him for. While I can’t say for sure if the most accomplished he was certainly a running candidate for most accomplished Neptunia moderator on Reddits history.
Not long after the moderator team started an NSFW ban attempt again this time polling for opinions via mod mail. The ban went through but the community was more upset this time at the lack of an affiliation with Gamindustrir18island and the instead establishment nor NeptuniaNSFW . Now many people asked why are there two Neptunia porn subreddits? Well the official answer is valid, members of gamindustrir18island including its moderators were guilty of a lot of hate spreading and harassment towards the gamindustri moderation team, if we look at its current Discord its early days were a cesspit and before that on the old gamindustrir18island discord the likes of edwin-of-northumbria and darklhel225 would regularly take part and engage in the hate cult based against randoomguy666, while my sources on the following part are second hand I also hear that a private discord spawned off the old gamindustri off topic chat room owned by silenteagle3 that user bashing and hate circling is a common occurance to this day ever since Silenteagle3 kicked randoomguy666 to make his friends happier. Not surprising if the rumors about the infamous Xander being amongthat discords most active and respected users are actually true.
The new Subreddit elected two new moderators to cover it, dracesquire and legend1nfamous, who seem to be the definition of “doing nothing but appreciate the sidebar” If we look at the history of NeptuniaNSFW and their accomplishments on it, being mentioned in the post about the gamindustri pixel art contest. Outside that their accomplishments or things they have done have been non-existent, half the time they seemed to forget their own subreddit existed.
Not long after we had randoomguy666 resign. For a lot of members it was a bittersweet moment, because despite the initial objections to him a lot of people warmed up to randoomguy666 over time with all the contributions he had brought to the community. Randoomguy666 did imply he planned to return someday. While there were some toxic hate filled comments people made they were quickly taken down leaving only the most respectful. THIS IS IMPORTANT.
As time went on the_seraph1 had shown a remarkable job juggling bringing the community back together with his full time job in a tech career, capable of full access and response time almost any time of day. There was a minor scuffle however when nopani lashed out at the_seraph1 for trying to cheer up and provide emotional support to a sad comment in a random Discussion post left by Nopani. nopani admitted that what he posted addressed emotional insecurities the_seraph1 had that had been explained to him by sleepyviewing. nopani’s behavior seemed out of nowhere, have nothing to do with what the_seraph1 said, and being hypocritical since nopani has made those same comments. If we look at the behavior of nopani there as a standalone isolated case no logical sense or reasoning can be applied to it. Having briefly discussed this with the other long term observers of Gamindustri the only way Nopani’s actions can make sense there is field testing, it was after this harassment from alt accounts that had almost no rhy7me or reason began on the rise, and since I’m just talking about publicly facing stuff I can’t begin to imagine what the_seraph1 had endured behind closed doors. The thing is if we look at every public facing harassment or hostile action taken against the_seraph1 afterwards they all seemed to address those same insecurities, if we take it as field testing how out of nowhere the behavior of nopani was can make half a lick of sense.
The summer approached and a new moderator was added, Archadianite or as he used to be known Glarcidium, taking up the olds mantle of Neptune that SuspicousScout had left behind. Big shoes to fill to say the least.
Around this same time randoomguy666 returned just in time for the AMA thread with Artisan Studios and announced he was helping a relatively unknown name, chaotic-throwaway help revive the subreddit nepgear. He was joined by two others, nopani and edwin-of-northumbria. To any uninvolved observer this behavior was once again a bit nonsensical. These were two people who expressed great relief when randoomguy666 left so why were they now supporting and modding with him?
Allegations came forward of Randoomguy666 faking his own death and spreading rumors against the moderator team came forward. willtheyordle made a post and god was it a good post. Yes it was basically denouncing someone but it was respectful, informative, and passive. While you look at any time Soah1086 calls someone out and you wonder if he has taken his ritalin that morning there was no doubt willtheordle’s post was made in good faith and to inform, not to direct hate. There was one common thing among all comments though. Everyone agreed without question that out of all of randoomguy666’s “victims” the_seraph1 had suffered the most. THIS IS ONCE AGAIN IMPORTANT.
Things were relatively calm for a while. Eventually nopani did make a post about leaving the subreddit and unfollowing all the Neptunia subreddits, yet still showed up in the pinned threads of every one saying he “stumbled upon it”. How did he stumble upon them if he unfollowed the subreddit? His motives clearly were not what he said they were because ifn he had truly unfollowed them it would have been impossible to stumble upon them scrolling through your feed.
Glarcidium was demodded in a very respectful post showing no hard feelings. I can’t say I am entirely surprised but I was disappointed for Glarcidium was one of the first who’s loyalty to the community came before his loyalty as a moderator. But I understand why with how quick he can be to jump before trying to take in all information. There was something that was confusing about all this. nopani said he once again “stumbled upon it” and that he never saw Glarcidium as mod material, but before he heralded the modding of Glarcidium as the greatest thing in subreddit history. Why the shift? Looking at the way nopani talked about the moderation team after Randoomguy666’s departure and comparing it to the way he did before the departure sucking up to be in good favor isn’t an impossibility.
In this brief time much was done to help mend the torn ligaments of the community. There was a community introduction thread that was incredibly popular, the_seraph1 was making constant posts not even as a moderator but as a user of “would you be interested in seeing something like this?”. The community was slowly mind you, but turning towards the path back to the state soah1086 had robbed it of smearing someone's name because he wanted to feel superior and incapable of wrong.
This sadly came to Seraph making a thread about what the community wanted, “State of the Subreddit”. Anyone who actively followed the subreddits history would know his words are sincere because the mindset of doing as little as possible and just trying to copy what others have done had long since been the norm in soah1086 communities. What the_seraph1 described had been a problem with every community he had ever managed and part of why they all grew to be so toxic.
The next day we saw the_seraph1 step down citing toxic harassment from the other moderators. While things were going well kind respectable words of goodbye and fond memories from the regulars it fell apart when atanigan jumped in lashing out at the_seraph1 saying he was lying, no one lashed out, etc. the_seraph1 posted a screenshot proving the other moderators were outright toxic and atanigan banned him citing “leaking mod chat”. Ironic part is this wasn’t the first time an gamindustri moderator had shown something from the mod chat, infact atanigan had done it once prior herself in a Random Discussion post in a means to troll willtheyordle.
Legend1nfamous , dracesquire both jumped in after the ban bashing the_seraph1. Given how these people had all shown to be on really good terms just a couple weeks prior the_seraph1’s statement of “Lance said I lost the right to play nice because now he had to fear the community hating them” seemed like a very strong correlation to the sudden shift. None of us were surprised because soah1086 management practices, if you are less loyal to the moderator team than you are your own country or religion your a problem that needs to be silenced, and the_seraph1 had shown that day just like rajaxx had so long before his loyalty was first and foremost the community. nopani jumped in claiming wwlink55 and sleepyviewing both said it didn’t happen and “sleepy is his best friend”.
There was one saving grace in all this. willtheyordle was still head moderator and the only one that had the backbone to go against the mod team if it meant cleaning up a mess. If you look at willtheyordle’s history of the subreddit he was top 5 moderators the sub has had. He had his issues and short comings but when shit hit the fan he didn’t try and cover it up or lie he’d say “Look we messed up, I’m going to fix it”.
In the final conclusion to that while the final post showed signs of heavy editorial review not matching the_seraph1’s behavioral or speech quirks. However at the same time the final story of all that was still more in line with the_seraph1’s story and atanigan and dracesquire issued an apology towards him. So here is the question. Why did Atanigan , wwlink55 , sleepyviewing , legend1nfamous , and dracesquire lie saying nothing like that ever happened? More importantly why did sleepyviewing who according to nopani was his best friend lie? And when there were apparently 4 people who lashed out why was only 2 ever issue an apology? Simple they were the only two still on the moderator team that we knew for a fact were involved. Notice legend1nfamous who had left neptuniansfw by that point didn’t apologize and even tried to defend his toxic behavior? Nor did the currently unnamed 4th.
It is very clear that the apologies were an order by willtheyordle and that they were far from sincere and I’ll get back to that in a few minutes.
When all those moderators lied about their team being even capable of toxic behavior and only seemed to have to own up due to willtheyordle how do you expect us to believe anything any of them ever say?
A month or so later willtheyordle stepped down due to his real life needing priority and ryzer28 along with him. the_seraph1 came back and the community was ecstatic, I know several observers felt it was worth giving the subreddit a chance again and made new accounts in celebration he was spared the fate of Rajaxx.
However if we take a step back we can evaluate this unbiasedly, it’s why those of us from rajaxx’s day lurk and address things without really interacting, so we can see the truth and the odd behavior without getting absorbed into the various sub group power games that had grew from the day soah1086 became head mod, we can see there was a game going on far beneath the surface.
I would address Atanigan said on his Discord how the subreddit was horrible and he never dealt with so much emotional abuse, showing that his apology was mostly likely insincere but that to him saying you disapprove of his actions makes you a problem. This makes sense when you look at the fact the newest admin on his Discord server, Gamindustri Standard, sigmastudio is described by many behind closed doors as “Weeb Kim Jong Un”. Acting smug, elitest, morally superioholier than thou, and someone who doesn’t see himself being capable of anything wrong. On his Reddit history we can also see a long history of him trying to bait randoomguy666 and the_seraph1 into arguments, often digging up month old posts to do it. But he’s an admin because he contributes to Atanigans friendly ego stroking.
ryzer28 began spreading rumors about the_seraph1 that from what has been gathered so far weren’t entirely accurate, especially since later the_seraph1 showed screenshots of ryzer28 admitting they were inaccurate and he was doing it out of spite.
So why wasn’t ryzer28 denounced when he had just become guilty of the same behavior randoomguy666 ultimately faced it for? Simple answer would be ryzer28’s actions fit perfectly with what soah1086 and any mod team that ever thought he was capable of managing a sock drawer did to people who suggested the way they do things wasn’t the best, smearing.
We know he told these to nopani who then forwarded these over to the new moderators when they applied which were all very close friends of his. This here is the proof that something shady and underhanded was going on.
It wasn’t hard to see these new moderators hanging around or chilling with the_seraph1 in Gamindustri Standard in the days leading up to the mod applications and explanation. While things were rough for a bit we slowly started to see the_seraph1 was regaining his vigor and recovering for the emotional and mental gaslighting the mod team had engaged in.
On Christmas we saw that the_seraph1 was late to the celebratory post because he had stayed up late readying the community's secret santa event. I ask you have any of the other moderators ever sacrificed an entire Christmas Eve to prepare something fun for an internet board? This isn’t rhetorical by the way this is a question I actually don’t have an answer to.
After a bit an apology post by randoomguy666 went up and it was great closure for a lot of users, but then the unexpected happen. Soah1086 used the_seraph1 to reenact Gamindustri’s original sin.
The post and the days that follow were surreal. If we look at the comments what do we see? The people we know for certain lashed out at the_seraph1 before lashing out again, the suspected 4th ryzer28 doing it all the same, all close friends of legend1nfamous the only 100% confirmed moderator to have lashed out at the_seraph1 during the state of the subreddit incident joining in on the kicking someone while they were down. The only close friend of legend1nfamous that didn’t as far as we can tell was ChronicIdiocy
This thread was very reminiscent to everyone who had ever seen soah1086’s behavior running a subreddit knew this wasn’t in good nature, it wasn’t meant to be honest, it wasn’t meant to inform or be transparent. It was meant to direct hate.
Like normal in Soah1086’s smear campaigns comments against Soah1086’s “Mark” were given free reign but anything questioning the mod team was silenced in seconds. This post did however show us the biggest proof in the coming days that things weren’t what they seemed.
This is where nopani told us he forwarded the rumors spread in spite by ryzer28 to the new moderators who “knew all along”. Why is this important? We know in the coming days the_seraph1 tried to do what rajaxx did and peace out of the fanbase but wwlink55 didn’t let him. We also know from screenshots the_seraph1 posted that this pushed him into a quest to seek answers so he could make sense of the nonsensical. Through this time wwlink55 kept changing his story to cover the other moderators' backs. Look I’m a patrol officer and on my way to being made a case investigator, when someone has basically been attacked mentally like what soah1086 did the way wwlink55’s primary goal was covering the other moderators backs is among the most damaging thing you can do to someones state of mind and self image/worth.
But we know from screenshot’s the_seraph1 tried posting that wwlink55 wasn’t taking anything suggesting the mod team would be semi capable of wrong or fault. There is one question though the_seraph1 never asked in those screenshots, why didn’t these junior moderators he seemed on really good terms with come to hear his side of these rumors? See that’s the thing that shows the moderators were up to something, when someone spreads rumors against your friend is it not the norm to come and hear their side?
Once these screenshots were posted publicly on the subreddit thus started “Avenger” the long term harasser that had been driving the_seraph1 out of the community entirely wanting no one to ever hear from him again. Interesting part is just after that happened Soah1086 changed his Reddit banner image to Gorgon from Fate Stay/Night something that from what I can see not the_seraph1 nor anyone else ever commented on or made a connection to.
Outright hate and toxicity towards the_seraph1 was allowed free reign, things were allowed to stay up when far more mellow things had been taken down in regards to randoomguy666 both before and after his denouncement. Meanwhile posts supporting the_seraph1 were often locked or removed entirely. The funny part is this, if we look at the removals of toxicity against randoomguy666 the responding moderator was quite often wwlink55, so why now that he was supposed to be head moderator was he not showing the same courtesy? Simple for the mod teams happiness they had to smear him, its the soah1086 way.
As time went on the mod team tried to silence the topic entirely, likely realizing the case against them had reached a point it painted them more at fault than anyone else, something once again common among soah1086 communities of silencing things and letting the toxicity boil fracturing the community rather than trying to mend the fence.
Now I don’t know much about this supposed Val person but my sources tell me that they were in the gamindustrir18island discord briefly and their account was heavily aged? Makes the odds of it being an alt unlikely honestly but I won’t comment because that person is mostly an unknown to us.
From what we gather by the end of it mind shattered and being left with zero self worth the_seraph1 just wanted to keep chatting with his friends but once this Val person showed up they stopped responding, thus making this Val person cement the long term harassment goal of no one talking to him again.
This basically shattered the_seraph1’s mind to such a point he began turning to self mutilation as a cry for help and not only did the gamindustri mod team laugh it off but from what we understand edwin-of-northumbria told him to just “do it already”? Sorry that alone should be enough to ban edwin-of-northumbria from the community entirely and block any community hes part of from so much as being mentioned.
Eventually the_seraph1 was so mind fucked like many people had been before from the mod teams of soah1086 communities and their priority of mod team happiness above all else that he left, his girlfriend showed up and said he had tried to do an unthinkable action in response to all the emotional harassment and manipulation. When she joined the Discord just wanting to understand what the hell happened users taunted her before sigmastudio posted one of his custom Noire emotes and banned him before him, the other staff of that discord, and the users did a victory Dance. How is it that that is an acceptable response to someones loved one trying to do the unthinkable? In a respectable community sigmastudio would have lost his position on the Discord for such an action but remember these are people who above all else don’t want moderators that want the best for their communities, that want friends who will tell em no matter how toxic they are or how badly they mess up they are doing everything perfectly. The norm for soah1086 communities. We can see that his Girlfriend has been on Discord for quite awhile and from what I’m told she talks about in kuletxcore’s server if things had been different I bet you she could have been a well loved member of this community too.
Interestingly enough a large number of anime Discords have been subject to raids lately, including Neptunia. But not a single user in any of them seems to be getting messages. Heck some of these anime Discords still have about 200 bots just sitting there. But if we look at his twitter we can see the_seraph1 was getting mass bombarded to the point he left Discord servers, unrelated to Neptunia, that he had a decent enough level of activity his name was at least “recognized” to get away from the harassment and save those Discords the trouble. So why leave communities entirely unrelated to Neptunia he enjoyed? Why were these bots joining Neptunia Discords but not messaging a single person in them? Simple, harass the_seraph1 and use the alts hitting the Neptunia discords to try and smear his name more if I had to guess having seen these moderators behavior in the past.
Now the_seraph1 is gone and similar to Rajaxx it doesn’t sound like he doesn’t intend to ever come back, yet all this bullshit is still happening. We can see this in the recent tweet about a bad actor weresdrim is being harassed and extorted for Neptunia and here on this subreddit in that “Want to be a mod” post we can see that hobiiii is being targetted for gamindustrireform. Why is this important? Only Neptunia subreddits not currently ran by an gamindustri moderator or their closest closest friends. It fits the mantra going back years, to be recognized, we must be in control.

submitted by RJLPDash to GamindustriReform [link] [comments]

OVER/UNDER betting is just like any other bet where you are looking at the final score, whether the game ends in regulation or multiple overtimes. Although it’s often said that NFL overtime is an UNDER bettor’s worst enemy but an OVER bettor’s best friend, it’s important to remember that both teams get the chance to touch the ball. The Over Under market is a 50/50 market meaning there are only two possible outcomes. It would seem logical that if a bettor was to win a 50/50 bet then they would return double their money. This is not the case when betting Over Under markets due to the need of the sportsbook to take a cut of the money wagered (the handle). This cut is called Over/Under Examples. DraftKings set the over/under at 52 for Chiefs vs. Titans in the 2020 AFC Championship Game.. Bettors had the option to wager on the total points in the game going over or under 52. The Chiefs won 35-24 — a total of 59 points — putting the game over the total. However, the over under betting strategy appeals to both experienced and new bettors, so you may feel it’s one of the best betting systems for you to use. Effortless in its simplicity, the over under betting strategy can be used to bring in significant returns, providing your predictions are correct. Claim up to 100$ bonus now! Hockey over/under betting, also known as the “Totals”, is a great way to take advantage and enjoy the game of hockey in a much grandeur sense. Instead of predicting and putting a wager on the exact number of goals scored by each team in a given matchup, hockey over/unders rely on the combined totals of both team’s score – the estimate

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